Luka Doncic Underdog NBA Picks Today, 3/10: Basketball Projections + More
Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy NBA Picks for Monday, March 10, 2025! With a loaded NBA slate ahead, we’re honing in on two player props that stand out based on the latest projections and matchups.
Luka Doncic and Dyson Daniels headline our Underdog NBA picks today, offering a mix of superstar scoring and defensive upside. Whether you’re building a lineup for fun or chasing a big payout, these selections are backed by data and trends to give you an edge on Underdog Fantasy. Let’s dive into the analysis!
Underdog Fantasy NBA Picks: Monday, 3/10; NBA DFS Projection
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Luka Doncic NBA Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 30.5 Points
Luka Doncic is still one of the NBA's best, playing now for the Los Angeles Lakers. The number has him at 30.4 points against the Brooklyn Nets, short of our 30.5-point threshold, but the circumstance tells us he's going to score over it. Playing 38 minutes with a stat line of 10.6 field goals, 3.7 threes, and 5.5 free throws, Luka's usage remains elite, and his 59.5 projected fantasy points show his ceiling.
Without LeBron James in the lineup, we see Luka's usage rate increase over 40% since joining the Lakers. The Nets have been abysmal defensively this season, and Luka's skillset at attacking weaker perimeter defenses is well-documented.
In this game, as the Lakers are at home and Doncic is taking a huge number of shots, he's crossed 30.5 points in several games recently. The dip slightly under the line in the forecast (30.4) does not represent his tendency to break out in positive situations like this. Wager on Luka to cross 30.5 points tonight against a diminished Brooklyn side.
Dyson Daniels NBA Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 2.5 Steals
Dyson Daniels has established himself as a defensive presence for the Atlanta Hawks, and the projections back up his steals potential with a clean 3.0 steals per game against the Philadelphia 76ers. At 34 minutes, Daniels is also expected for 14.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.0 assists, for a total of 34.4 fantasy points, but it's his league-leading steals average that makes this prop a slam dunk.
Confronting a Sixers team that's still getting used to injury and lineup shakeups, Daniels' pesky hands and tireless work should be impressive. The Sixers are not a turnover-prone team, but Daniels doesn't need a sloppy opponent to thrive—he creates his own opportunities.
He's had 3+ steals in numerous games through this point in the year, and the projection perfectly aligns with his trend through the season. With a robust 3.0 steals projection and a favorable matchup that leans towards his defensive effort, maintaining Daniels over 2.5 steals is a confident bet for this slate.
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Player News
Aaron Gordon had a quiet night, finishing with 13 points (6-of-13 FGs, 0-of-1 FTs), five rebounds, three assists, one steal, and one three-pointer in the Nuggets’ loss to the Thunder on Tuesday.
Gordon was mostly held in check on the offensive end, finishing with his fewest three-point makes of the series, the second-lowest scoring output, and no production from the free throw line. While Gordon has made several big plays down the stretch of games this postseason, he was notably quiet in Game 5, making his line feel even less spectacular. He’s performed well in Denver’s two home games this series and will need to empty the tank on Thursday in Game 6 to help the Nuggets keep their season alive.
Jamal Murray scored 28 points (10-of-27 FGs, 5-of-5 FTs), four rebounds, three assists, one block and three three-pointers in 42 minutes for the Nuggets in their loss to the Thunder on Tuesday.
Murray registered his third 20-plus-point game of the series on Tuesday, but did so on rather inefficient shooting. A monster 13-point third quarter is where much of his production came from, which gave Denver a decent lead going into the final quarter. However, Murray cooled off down the stretch, scoring five of Denver’s 19 points in the fourth quarter. Both he and the rest of the Nuggets will want a better close to Thursday’s Game 6 if they hope to extend their season.
Nikola Jokic was dominant in the Nuggets’ loss to the Thunder on Tuesday, posting 44 points (17-of-25 FGs, 5-of-5 FTs), 15 rebounds, five assists, two steals, and 5 three-pointers.
Jokic bounced back in a big way on Tuesday after a few inefficient shooting performances in Games 2, 3 and 4. The three-time MVP had his fingerprints all over the game on the offensive side, regaining his shooting touch and being particularly dangerous from beyond the arc. He made some contributions as a passer, but still hasn’t found a way to dominate in this series as a facilitator, not yet tallying more than six assists in any game. Even with the Nuggets receiving the inevitable bounce-back game for Jokic, it wasn’t enough for them to take control of the series. Denver will need everything it can get from Jokic in Thursday’s Game 6 if it wants to extend the season.
Luguentz Dort came up big for the Thunder in their win over the Nuggets on Tuesday, finishing with 12 points (4-of-8 FGs), three rebounds, one assist and four three-pointers.
Well-known for his prowess on the defensive end, Dort’s offensive eruption in the fourth quarter helped the Thunder climb from out of a big hole to secure a come-from-behind win and move Oklahoma City one win closer to a trip to the conference finals. His three triples in the final frame were huge, but a late assist on a Jalen Williams three might have been the play that delivered the Thunder the victory. Dort’s double-digit outing marked his third of the series, and Oklahoma City would welcome another as it tries to close out the series on Thursday in Game 6.
Jalen Williams was impressive for the Thunder on Tuesday, posting 18 points (5-of-14 FGs, 6-8 FTs), nine rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers in the win over the Nuggets.
Williams landed in double figures in scoring for the fifth time in as many games this series. And while he continued to struggle with shooting efficiency, he remained impactful as a facilitator. The fourth-year wing also delivered one of the biggest shots of Game 5 as he sank a corner three-pointer late in the fourth quarter to give Oklahoma City a lead it wouldn’t surrender the rest of the way. Williams will continue to be relied upon when the Thunder head to Denver for a chance to close out the Nuggets in Game 6 on Thursday.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tallied 31 points (12-of-23 FGs, 6-of-6 FTs), six rebounds, seven assists, two steals, two blocks and one three-pointer in the Thunder’s win over the Nuggets on Tuesday.
Gilgeous-Alexander did it all for the Thunder on Tuesday, taking on the roles of scorer and facilitator while remaining active on the defensive end along the way. Most importantly, he was key in the final handful of blows that Oklahoma City dealt Denver down the stretch in what ended up being a dominant 34-19 fourth quarter for the Thunder. Gilgeous-Alexander, an MVP finalist, delivered his third 30-point game of the series and will have a chance on Thursday to produce his fourth as the Thunder try to eliminate the Nuggets.