NBA Showdown Playbook May 16: Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets Game 1
The Western Conference Finals kicks off on Tuesday, May 16th, with the Los Angeles Lakers traveling to the Denver Nuggets to see who will represent the West in the NBA finals. There is plenty of star power on display as Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis, LeBron James, and Jamal Murray take the floor and the ancillary pieces around them are great too. Denver opens as the favorite at home, a place they went 34-7 at. This should be a fantastic series and we have NBA DFS breakdown to go with it.
If you have ANY questions about tonight's game from a DFS or betting perspective, make sure to hop in the discord below and ask away!
Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets
Total: 222.5
Spread: DEN -6
Los Angeles Lakers Injuries
- Anthony Davis - PROB
- LeBron James - PROB
- Mo Bamba - OUT
Denver Nuggets Injuries
- Jamal Murray - QUEST
- Collin Gillespie - OUT
NBA DFS CPT/MVP Top Plays
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
Look, I get that using Nikola Jokic as a captain handicaps the rest of our line considering he’s $19,200 on DraftKings and is $1.8K more than everyone else, but he’s worth it. In the final five games against Phoenix, he put up 72+ DKP in each and had three triple-doubles and two double-doubles. Jokic averaged 23.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, 9.8 assists, and 60.1 DKP/game over four meetings against the Lakers this year.
Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers
It’s been a wild postseason for Anthony Davis and there have been a lot of up’s and down’s throughout, but his ceiling has been elite. He’s been dominating on the defensive end since the play-in game and has two 20-rebound games on his ledger as well. If Davis can get going offensively, he has as much upside as anyone else in this game.
Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
Although he’s listed as questionable, the expectation is that Jamal Murray will play in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals tonight. Murray has scored 26+ actual points and 45+ DKP in three of his last four games and during the regular season he averaged nearly 40 DKP/game in four meetings against the Lakers. Murray has the ability to lead the Nuggets to victory when he’s the team’s primary scorer and Nikola Jokic is setting him up.
Contrarian CPT/MVP options
- Dennis Schroder, Los Angeles Lakers - if starting
- Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers
- Bruce Brown, Denver Nuggets
NBA DFS UTIL Top Plays
LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
It was vintage LeBron James in Game 6 against the Warriors as he played a near flawless game. He’s been very good lately putting up 46+ DKP in three straight contests and we know there have been very few players that have lived up to the moment like James. James will be a little contrarian at captain, especially with this game in Denver.
Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers
This kids been flat out ballin’ for the Lakers and is coming off a 39.25 DKP outing and has put up 30+ DKP in three straight games. Using Reaves is a very safe play in cash and still presents enough upside in GPP’s as well. Pivoting off Reaves to a likely lower-owned D’Angelo Russell could be a solid approach in tournaments.
Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets
I’d much rather play Michael Porter Jr. at $7,000 on DraftKings than $6,800 Aaron Gordon given the upside MPJ has flashed versus what Gordon has this postseason. Gordon has taken a backseat and is the fourth or fifth option offensively each and every night. In Games 3, 4, and 5, Michael Porter Jr. had 36+ DKP thanks to two double-doubles and a 19-point, 8-rebound outing.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope & Bruce Brown, Denver Nuggets
I’ve said this for two series now. Bruce Brown has typically been the one of these two players drawing a lot of the rostership but Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is the pivot off of him. Bruce does more on a regular basis, but KCP has two things working for him. When his shot is falling, he can space the floor infinitley better than Brown AND he plays more than him every night.
Dennis Schroder, Los Angeles Lakers
I mentioned I think Schroder is a sneaky CPT play and here’s why. If he re-enters the starting lineup, his price tag allows you to comfortably get two spend up’s, aka some combination of Nikola Jokic/Anthony Davis/Lebron James/Jamal Murray. Schroder topped 25 minutes in the final three games of the Warriors series and it would’ve been more if he hadn’t been ejected in Game 6. I like this idea best if he’s starting again.
NBA DFS GPP Darts
Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.