NBA Finals DFS Playbook: Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Game 5
We have Game 5 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets on Monday, June 12th, and the Nuggets can close the series out and be world champions if they hold serve on their home floor. The Heat are likely getting Tyler Herro back and he averaged 20 points per game during the regular season and the Heat's offense has gone ice cole over the past two games. That is a big boost for them. Let's dive into my breakdown of today's NBA DFS Showdown Playbook for Game 2 of the NBA Finals and who my favorite daily fantasy basketball plays are for tonight's game!
Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets
Total: 209.5
Spread: DEN -9
Miami Heat Injuries
- Tyler Herro - QUEST
- Victor Oladipo - OUT
Denver Nuggets Injuries
NBA DFS CPT/MVP Top Plays
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
Jokic had one of his worst shooting performances of the year and yet had 57.5 DKP in Game 4 because of his ability to literally do anything and everything on the basketball floor. That’s why he’s the best player in this series, in DFS, and in the league at present.
Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
Although he shot poorly in Game 4, Murray had a relatively solid fantasy outing once again thanks to his fourth straight double-digit assist outing. He’s now put up 40+ DKP in nine straight games and is obviously live to score every time he rises and takes a shot. Murray’s one of the best options in this game to use at the captain’s spot.
Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
I know the shooting performances haven’t been great this series, but he keeps shooting because of the way Denver is guarding him. He has three double-doubles in four games this series and has scored 20+ points in each as well. Adebayo has taken 19+ shots in three of four games and there’s no reason to think that doesn’t continue. If he shoots like he did in the first two games of this series he could possibly approach 30 actual points here.
Aaron Gordon, Denver Nuggets
Despite having a tough time having to guard Jimmy Butler this entire series, Aaron Gordon has been fantastic on the offensive end of the floor as well. He’s coming off a series-high 27 points and has double-digit points in each outing. Gordon’s ability to do a lot of things really makes him a valuable asset when he’s being used this much on the offensive end. He’s had double-digit points in all four games and has 34+ DKP in back-to-back games.
Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat
Aaron Gordon could be Jimmy Butler's kryptonite, his ankle could be really messed up, or a combination of both things could be leading to his passive play this entire NBA Finals. I mean, he averaged 40 PPG against the Bucks and this isn't the same guy at ALL in this series compared to that one. If you think Miami has any chance at stealing ANOTHER game in Denver, Butler has to play better. Plain and simple.
NBA DFS UTIL Top Plays
Gabe Vincent, Miami Heat
Will Vincent continue to shoot this poorly? It’s possible and if he struggles, the Heat could just turn to Tyler Herro for some extra run if Herro’s cleared to return. That said, Vincent was one of the primary reasons that propelled the Heat to a Game 2 victory in Denver. He’s a walking bucket at times and if he makes shots he could be in tonight’s winning lineup.
Tyler Herro, Miami Heat
It’s nearly been two months since we last saw Tyler Herro in game action, so we’re not actually sure how much time he’s going to see if he’s actually cleared. It’s a hand injury, so his cardio should be OK, but we’re unsure if he’s in game shape and unsure how much he can endure during the course of a high level NBA game. He’s a GPP option but a risky one. If he starts, all bets are off and he’s simply too cheap.
Bruce Brown, Denver Nuggets
If Michael Porter Jr. continues to play poorly, Denver’s just going to play more Bruce Brown. Plain and simple. Brown’s played 27-plus minutes in three straight games and was one of the primary X-Factor’s for the Nuggets in Game 4’s victory. Brown is normally a 20+ minute contributor anyways but can play upwards of 30 if MPJ isn’t playing well.
NBA DFS Showdown Value Plays
Kyle Lowry, Miami Heat
This is a tricky one because he’s been playing well, but who’s going to lose the most time out there if Tyler Herro returns tonight? What if Gabe Vincent shoots the ball well? Both of those questions directly correlate to Kyle Lowry and how much he’s going to play. If Vincent struggles, Miami may turn to Lowry immediately in hopes he creates the same spark he has in the last two games.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Denver Nuggets
KCP has not shot the ball well at all in this series and it really hasn’t been required of him, but he’s such a valuable asset on the defensive side of the ball Denver keeps him on the floor. Because of his five blocks/steals in Game 4, KCP put up 26 DKP and is now below 5K. GPPs for KCP.
Kevin Love, Miami Heat
One of the better values of this series, because there haven’t been many, is Kevin Love. After not playing in Game 1, Love has started three straight games and has even played 18+ minutes in two of them. He has 18+ DKP in those two games and is just 3.6K. If he spaces the floor well, he has a chance to approach 20 minutes.
Duncan Robinson, Miami Heat
Robinson is just the infinitely better option than Max Strus at this point and there’s no more messing around for the Heat. They’re down 3-1. Robinson played 25 minutes in Game 4 and they’ll likely turn to him faster if Strus can’t find his shot early.
Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets
Braun has found his way into the lineup for 15+ minutes in the previous three games this series and outside of Game 4, vastly overperformed. He wasn’t going to make every shot for the rest of the series as we all knew, but he only took one shot in Game 4. He’s at his best when his hands are in the passing lanes and it leads to Denver in transition.
Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.