Game 1 of one of the most anticipated second-round series in the entire postseason as two teams that were fighting to be the one seed up until the last day of the regular season will duke it out, starting in Denver for the first two games. This series features two of the best players in the league in Nikola Jokic, the likely three-time MVP, and Anthony Edwards, who’s ascending toward MVP status. The defending champion Nuggets have their hands full here.

I think there are multiple ways to approach showdown slates, but when you have very expensive star power, don’t be afraid to use both guys and punt 1-2 spots in your lineup. Now, punt with guys that will see time, but you don’t need everyone to crush their price point. You’ll lose to those getting 80 FP at 1.5x in the captain’s spot.

 

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets

Total: 208.5

Spread: DEN -4.5

 

Season Series: 2-2

NBA DFS Injury Report, 5/4

Timberwolves Injuries

  • Chris Finch (lol, kidding, but reports are he’ll be on the bench for the TWolves)

Nuggets Injuries


NBA DFS Showdown CPT/MVP Top Plays

Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

In the five games against the Lakers, Jokic showed a floor of 58 DKP and a ceiling of 79. He had three double-doubles and two triple-doubles, twice grabbing 20 rebounds. If Jamal Murray continues to shoot poorly, which he did in four of the five games of the previous series, look for Jokic to shoulder as heavy a load as possible.

Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves

Phoenix was only able to stop Anthony Edwards in ONE game in the Timberwolves loss as Edwards scored 33+ points in three of four games, which resulted in 56+ DKP. Edwards has averaged 1.25 FP/min including the regular season and postseason. He’s looked amazing this postseason.

Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets

Porter has been the Nuggets second best player this postseason as he poured in 20+ points in the final four games of the Lakers series (19 in Game 1) and he posted 36.5 DKP or more in all five games. With Jamal Murray a bit banged up and likely to see Jaden McDaniels and Nickiel Alexander-Walker defense, leaving Anthony Edwards on MPJ. That’s not easy, but it’s not McDaniels or NAW.

 

NBA DFS Showdown UTIL Top Plays

Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves

We’ll see how the Timberwolves guard Nikola Jokic, but if I’m right and it’s a cross-match with Karl-Anthony Towns guarding him, Gobert will be hanging around the rim guarding Aaron Gordon who spends a lot of time in the dunker spot. That’s good for rim protection and rebounding; two things Gobert excels at. He was great against Phoenix outside of Game 4 in which he spent the whole game in foul trouble.

Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves

Karl-Anthony Towns was largely able to stay out of trouble in Game 4 against Phoenix and he had a monster game. A game we’ve seen a LOT from Towns when he’s able to stay on the floor. He only played 27+ minutes once in the four games and Game 4 of their first-round series and Game 4 was the first time since returning from his injury in which he topped 30. He looks good even in limited minutes.

Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets

Despite not having a great series, it didn’t stop Murray from shooting 20+ times for five straight games. However, he shot the ball extremely well in Game 5 and put up nearly 50 DKP. Murray is going to have to navigate the waters of Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

Aaron Gordon, Denver Nuggets

Gordon’s ability to stuff the statsheet is where he thrives. He had 11+ rebounds in three of the five games this series and as long as he’s operating as the team’s backup center, his opportunities are sky high. He played 40+ minutes in the final four games of the Nuggets opening series including 46 minutes in Game 5.

 

NBA DFS Showdown Value Top Plays

Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves

The big IF’s with Jaden McDaniels are IF he can stay out of foul trouble and IF he can make shots. We saw in Games 2 and 4 he made shots he had a very solid floor/ceiling. The other two games, well…not so much.

Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves

Size against Denver is the name of the game and IF Karl-Anthony Towns or Rudy Gobert find themselves in foul trouble, we’ll see plenty of Naz Reid. He’s going to play 18-21 minutes regardless of foul trouble and has a high ceiling when his shot is falling.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Minnesota Timberwolves

He played 29+ minutes in every game in the TWolves first-round series and his number could be called for that type of run against Denver here. Now, this is a MUCH bigger team and maybe this is more of a Naz Reid/Kyle Anderson series. We have to consider that too.
 

NBA DFS Showdown Value Top Punts