NBA DFS Showdown Playbook January 6: Milwaukee Bucks vs Houston Rockets
Tonight’s showdown match-up between the Milwaukee Bucks and Houston Rockets feature one team well rested in the Bucks and one team on the second leg of a back-to-back in the Rockets. The stars will be out to play as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Alperen Sengun, all take the floor. Finding some of the NBA DFS top picks could be made easier if you take a look at Fantasy Alarm’s NBA DFS Projections, powered by FanJections. Let’s dive into the complete breakdown for tonight’s showdown slate.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Houston Rockets
- Total: 237.5
- Spread: MIL -6.5
Milwaukee Bucks Injuries
- Jae Crowder - OUT
Houston Rockets Injuries
- Tari Eason - QUEST
- Dillon Brooks - QUEST
- Victor Oladipo - OUT
NBA DFS Showdown CPT/MVP Top Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
68.5. That’s the number of fantasy points Antetokounmpo has averaged over the last five games. He’s topped 60 in six straight and eight of nine. He’s been unstoppable recently and there’s nothing Houston, or anyone else for that matter, can do about it.
Fred VanVleet, Houston Rockets
When you think about the Bucks, they can’t stop a nosebleed coming to guards. They bleed fantasy points to guards and VanVleet has as high of a ceiling as anyone else in this game other than Antetokounmpo. Two times over his last four games he’s put up 50 DKP and has a 71 DKP ceiling this year. This is a great pace up environment for Houston.
Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets
We don’t have official word on Dillon Brooks and Tari Eason, but without them Sengun has a 30.3% USG and 1.23 FP/min average this season. If Eason plays, Sengun’s FP/min average rises to 1.31 this season, so it’s great either way. His minutes are definitely more secure if Eason sits, however.
I couldn’t decide what I wanted to do here with Green, but he has captain appeal because of how good he’s been without Dillon Brooks this season. He gets the biggest usage bump (+6%) to 33.2%, which also leads the team, and is averaging 1.16 FP/min, which only trails Alperen Sengun. Green’s scored 20+ actual points in four of five games and has flashed nearly 50 DKP upside over that span as well. Guards, as mentioned in the VanVleet write-up, have owned Milwaukee.
NBA DFS Showdown UTIL Top Plays
Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks
Lillard has seemingly not been in a good groove offensively of late and has also played off the ball a bunch too, limiting his peripheral stats. With Antetokounmpo and Middleton posting double-digit assist games three times in the last five games and BOTH guys putting up five or more in five straight. That said, Lillard is coming off a double-double and is one of the league’s most prolific scorers of the last decade.
Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks
We should move past what we saw from Middleton last time out considering it was the first time he played a back-to-back this year and they didn’t want to push him. He’s playing 32-33 minutes every time out he’s not on the second leg of a back-to-back and has given us 33+ DKP in every game he’s hit that 32 minute mark. Safety is besides Middleton’s name in the DFS dictionary.
We’re still unsure if Eason is even going to play, but head coach Ime Udoka said he’s “hopeful” he’ll be able to suit up after not playing on Friday night. Eason’s been a FP/min monster this year and with the likelihood that Dillon Brooks will miss this game, Eason is a 1.15 FP/min player, which is third amongst their regulars AND is the cheapest of them all.
Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets
I prefer Smith if Eason sits, but at the end of the day, last years second overall pick has flashed an extremely high ceiling this season and they likely need his size against this monster Milwaukee frontcourt. Smith’s minutes are just more secure when Eason isn’t available.
NBA DFS Showdown Value Plays
- Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets (if Eason/Brooks are out)
- Cam Whitmore, Houston Rockets (if Eason/Brooks are out)
- MarJon Beauchamp, Milwaukee Bucks
Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.