NBA DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups, Injuries & More: Wednesday Playbook
Happy Wednesday May 7th, we have two Game 2s as each home team (Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics) lost Game 1 to the road teams (New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets) with each of them being comeback victories for the underdogs.
The stars are out as Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum, and Jalen Brunson are taking the floor in their most meaningful games of the year.
Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.
- News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
- Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
- Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
- NBA DFS Projections
- Lineup Generator
- NBA Ownership
Pre/Post-Lock Update
This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock.
Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.
All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G
NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 5/7
- Kristaps Porzingis - QUEST
- Sam Hauser - DOUBT
NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews
In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.
New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics
- Total: 211.5
- Spread: BOS -10.5
Knicks NBA DFS Breakdown
- DRtg (Playoffs): 4th
- Pace (Playoffs): 6th
Even with Jrue Holiday defense back, Jalen Brunson was very good in Game 1 posting a 33% USG, 29 points, and 46 DKP. Brunson's had an amazing postseason thus far. Miles McBride could be a last piece in, but only if playing MME.
The wings, once again, all look good and pretty similar. OG Anunoby played extremely well in Game 1, but Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges racked up a bunch of fantasy points. Their pricing is all REALLY good as Bridges has dropped below 6K, Anunoby sits at 6K and Hart's at 6.7K with triple-double upside.
We've really only seen two good games from Karl-Anthony Towns this entire postseason and because of it, the 7.6K price point he has on DK is the cheapest he's had all year. This isn't an easy spot for him if Kristaps Porzingis plays and Al Horford exists in the world as well. But the price, man. You could also take a shot on Mitchell Robinson too because of his ceiling when he's attacking the offensive glass.
Celtics NBA DFS Breakdown
- DRtg (Playoffs): 2nd
- Pace (Playoffs): 15th
Will the Celtics miss 45 threes again? That's unlikely because then they'd break the NBA record for missed threes that's held by..Game 1 Boston Celtics. Jrue Holiday returned to the lineup and was very solid and wasn't limited at all. His price is very favorable as well. If Kristaps Porzingis sits, Payton Pritchard could be extended a bit, but he only played 24 minutes in Game 1 even when Zinger played just 12 minutes. Derrick White is always a player you can land on and he gives you a solid floor/ceiling combination.
There really is no reason Jaylen Brown is 7.1K when he's not listed on the injury report with the knee and he's playing 40 regulation minutes. He simply shot the ball poorly but he took 20 shots, had a 29.3% USG and still had 38.75 DKP. Jayson Tatum was great from a fantasy perspective, but was awful down the stretch of the game, so what could've been from a ceiling standpoint if he actually made shots in the fourth quarter and OT.
The front court for Boston is obviously interesting because of Porzingis. Zinger only played 12 minutes because of the illness last time out and is listed as questionable for Game 2. If he doesn't play, Al Horford is a good value at just 5K and will play a boatload of minutes. You could make a case for Luke Kornet if Zinger sits. Also, Zinger is CHEAP.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Total: 229.5
- Spread: OKC -11
Nuggets NBA DFS Breakdown
- DRtg (Playoffs): 11th
- Pace (Playoffs): 8th
Oh look, another game in which the Nuggets barely play anyone other than the starters and Russell Westbrook. It's almost impossible to play anyone other than them in fantasy. You can play any of the starters but I'd hesitate to get to Michael Porter because of how he looks like he's dealing with his shoulder. The price is great though, lol. My Nuggets priorities are Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, and Russell Westbrook. Jamal Murray fits best in tournaments.
Thunder NBA DFS Breakdown
- DRtg (Playoffs): 1st
- Pace (Playoffs): 1st
The most surprising Game 1 of the playoffs was the Thunder blowing a lead late in Game 1 of this series against Denver. The number rated defense in the league should respond to adversity well as 11-point favorites here. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played 40 minutes, posted a 31% USG and had 65.5 DKP. He's my top play of the day.
The Thunder started the game with Isaiah Hartenstein but started the second half with Alex Caruso and played him a LOT of second half minutes. Caruso is going to be extremely popular and if you want a pivot, Luguentz Dort is that guy.
It was a BAD Jalen Williams Game 1 and yet, he still had 39 DKP. He went 5-for-20 from the floor and that's VERY unlikely to continue considering he was a 48% shooter from the floor this season. It was also a brutal Chet Holmgren game as he was in foul trouble and missed two crucial free throws at the end of the game. 6.8K on DK is far too cheap for Holmgren.
I'd be OK getting to Isaiah Hartenstein, but I'm unsure what his minutes will look like. He benefitted from Chet Holmgren's foul trouble, but if Holmgren doesn't get in foul trouble, what would they have looked like, especially if Caruso starts the game this time instead of just the second half.
NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks
High
Mid
- Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, Karl-Anthony Towns (GPP), Jalen Williams, Josh Hart, Derrick White, Chet Holmgren, OG Anunoby, Kristaps Porzingis (GPP)
Value
- Mikal Bridges, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Russell Westbrook, Alex Caruso, Luguentz Dort, Al Horford & Payton Pritchard (if Porzingis sits)
Player News
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander recorded 14 points (4-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, six assists, one block and two three-pointers in Saturday’s Game 3 loss to the Timberwolves.
Gilgeous-Alexander turned in his lowest-scoring performance of the entire season in this one. It was the lowest point total for the 26-year-old point guard since last March. He scored more than twice as many points in each of the first two games of the series. SGA was wearing a microphone for ESPN’s coverage of the game and could be heard on the bench in the fourth quarter saying they had a great game and we had a bad game. That might be putting it mildly as the Thunder lost Game 3 by a staggering 42 points. SGA and the Thunder will be looking to play better and take it from there in Game 4 on Monday.
Terrence Shannon Jr. had 15 points (5-of-8 FGs), two rebounds, one assist, one steal and one three-pointer in Game 3 against the Thunder on Saturday.
Julius Randle had 24 points (9-of-15 FGs), four rebounds, three assists and two three-pointers in Game 3 against the Thunder on Saturday.
Anthony Edwards had 30 points (12-of-17 FGs), nine rebounds, six assists, two steals and five three-pointers in Game 3 against the Thunder on Saturday.
Ian Begley of SNY reports the Knicks are “strongly considering” starting Mitchell Robinson ahead of Josh Hart against the Pacers in Game 3 on Sunday.
This isn’t a total surprise after Hart played 29 minutes in Game 2, which was the first time he played less than 30 minutes in these playoffs. Robinson, who has been lauded by Pacers coach Rick Carlisle in interviews throughout the series, played 29 minutes in Game 2 as well, though it was the most minutes he’s played this postseason. Robinson appeared to roll his ankle in the third quarter of Game 2, but must be feeling well if the Knicks are considering starting him now. The Knicks’ starting lineup is -50 in the playoffs and -29 so far in the Eastern Conference Finals. New York is a desperate team heading into Game 3 on Sunday after dropping the first two games of the series at home and coach Tom Thibodeau is searching for answers.
Mitchell Robinson (ankle) recorded a line of six points (2-of-3 FGs, 2-of-4 FTs), nine rebounds and three blocked shots in Friday’s Game 2 loss to the Pacers.
Robinson gave the Knicks a welcome boost during the first half of Game 2, extending multiple possessions due to his work on the offensive glass. He also recorded a few blocked shots, but New York’s many defensive lapses during the second half were too much to overcome. Also concerning for the Knicks was Robinson appearing to roll his left ankle during the third quarter. The good news is that he stayed in the game, and this was not the ankle operated on twice last season. Given the lack of consistent bench production, New York will need Robinson to be at his best for Game 3 on Sunday, especially now that they’re in a 0-2 hole.