Happy Wednesday, April 16th, we have the NBA Play-In tournament's second day as the nine and 10 seeds in both the Eastern and Western conferences square off. The winners become the eight-seed in the postseason and the loser will be eliminated.

The stars are out as Anthony Davis, Domantas Sabonis, Josh Giddey, and Tyler Herro are taking the floor in their most meaningful game of the year.

 

 

 

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership
 

 

Pre/Post-Lock Update

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G

 

NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 4/16

 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.

Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls

  • Total: 219.5
  • Spread: CHI -1

Heat NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 9th
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 27th

This is a great paced environment for the Miami Heat and although they're slight dogs, I love them for DFS. The pricing is the toughest thing to overcome for Miami. The Heat are a tricky team to figure out after Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo. Alec Burks probably starts, but Davion Mitchell will be the Heat guard extended because of how well he plays defensively. Over the last month, Mitchell's actually been a .9 FP/min player, which is solid if he's playing mid-30's minutes.

Andrew Wiggins at 7K should probably be a fairly popular play on this slate as long as we hear there are no limitations. Over the last month, not one member of the Miami Heat had a better FP/min output at over 1.2. His 27.9% USG is also an elite mark. Everything else is extremely tough to rely on because it's possible Nikola Jovic returns and that means Duncan Robinson, Pelle Larsson (if he plays), Kyle Anderson, and Haywood Highsmith could all get limited or be completely cut from their rotation. Of that group I'd probably take a shot on Duncan Robinson.

We likely see Bam Adebayo play 40 minutes here as the Heat's season is on the line and he's a very solid play at his price with the ceiling/floor combination. Kel'el Ware is a risky GPP play as he might not close or top 20 minutes, but if he's playing well he gets extended and could play 30. The problem is his age and maturity in a playoff series. That coaching staff might go with the experienced players over him.

Bulls NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 10th
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 1st

The Bulls are not going to run a very deep rotation here and that's going to really bode well for rostering them on this two-game slate. They're extremely popular despite being in a massive pace down spot and are going against a top-10 defense.

With Lonzo Ball and Tre Jones out, Josh Giddey is going to play monster minutes. He's an elite FP/min producer at 1.56 FP/min without Jones and Ball along with a 25% USG. This is a tough spot for Coby White with Davion Mitchell defense luking, but he obviously has a massive ceiling. Kevin Huerter is going to be one of the slates highest rostered players of the day at his price and the minutes he's playing for the Bulls as a starter.

One of the keys to the slate could be what the Bulls do with Matas Buzelis and his minutes. They could run him out there for 30-plus or lean to Patrick Williams who's cheaper but doesn't have nearly the same ceiling and has a much lower floor as well.

We saw this matchup recently and the Bulls played Nikola Vucevic 35 minutes. During that time, Vuc dominated and the Bulls will continue to extend him in this game environment. I like Vucevic quite a bit. Zach Collins should be the backup.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings

  • Total: 216
  • Spread: SAC -4.5

Mavericks NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 24th
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 8th

It's interesting to see what Dallas does with their starting lineup because the last few games, with a nearly-healthy team, they've started no traditional point-guards. They've used Naji Marshall as their PG. We'll see if they do that or use Spencer Dinwiddie, but it's likely either Marshall or Dinwiddie. Dinwiddie is definitely OK if he starts, but I'm 50/50 if he's that great of an option if he's coming off the bench. Brandon Williams is questionable, that could help Dinwiddie too. With the need for ball-handling, I really don't hate Dante Exum at min salary, especially if Williams is out.

On the wing, Klay Thompson is a really solid option and nobody in this game has as much playoff experience as he does. He's cheap and should be extended towards 30 minutes, especially if his shot is falling because they really don't have much space on the floor with their double-big lineup. Max Christie should see decent minutes off the bench too.

I like a lot of what Dallas has to offer at forward. P.J. Washington is starting at small-forward and is solid at the price. Naji Marshall was used as the teams point-guard near the end of the year, and it's possible they continue that into this game. If he's starting at 5.9K, that's a solid value. Caleb Martin is a punt as we know he'll play somewhere around 20 minutes off the bench.

I'd definitely roster Anthony Davis in any and all formats. The rest of their centers aren't playing enough and are too expensive for me.

Kings NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 22nd
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 28th

The Kings are going to run a very condensed rotation and that makes them look really good in DFS today. The Mavericks also play fast and are a bottom-10 defense. Keon Ellis is going to start at point-guard and with Malik Monk out, as long as he stays out of foul trouble, he'll get a bulk of the minutes. Devin Carter is an OK punt as the backup PG, but man the ownership is kind of insane.

Zach LaVine heads into the postseason playing really well and outside of the final game of the year, LaVine played 40+ minutes in four consecutive games. In each of those games he's had 40+ DKP and a 50+ ceiling. I mean, $9K on DK is very expensive for DeMar DeRozan. The one thing I'd say is that it's going to be contrarian. Keegan Murray is a very nice price point. I really the price, just hoping he can keep his hands to himself and stay out of foul trouble.

Trey Lyles is really expensive and I get it. Short bench and Lyles plays both front court spots, so he should play 20-plus minutes. I really do like a low-owned Domantas Sabonis despite how good Dallas' front court can be defensively. 

NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

High

Mid

Value