NBA Best Bets Today, 6/17: Expert Picks, Predictions & Props - NBA Finals
The Mavericks avoided the embarrassing Finals sweep with stifling defense from opening whistle to closing whistle. It was a performance that several expected to see in Games 1 through 3. Not only did Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving score, but the bench players also experienced their best game of the Finals.
Of the 15 Dallas Mavericks that played in Game 4, 13 of them scored points – THIRTEEN! That is going deep into the roster, and allowing everyone to enjoy some TV time during the NBA Finals. The best part for the Mavericks was that Doncic and Irving only played 33 and 31 minutes respectively. The three starters of Daniel Gafford, PJ Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. played 41 combined minutes.
The Mavericks should be well rested for Game 5 – but so should the Boston Celtics.
NBA Picks & Predictions Today, 6/17: Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 5
Game 5 is currently tilted 6.5 points in favor of the Boston Celtics, with a total point projection of 209.5. The money line is currently -275 for the Celtics and +225 for the Mavericks. With all that said, what do we have lined up for our NBA predictions today?
Mavericks vs. Celtics Prediction: Jayson Tatum Under 27.5 Points (-120 on Bet365 Sportsbook)
‘If it isn’t broke, don't fix it’. The sportsbooks have placed Jayon Tatum on the exact same point total of Game 4, despite him only scoring 15 points. He played just 27 minutes in the blowout loss, but the Celtics operate better when Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are the scoring force for the offense.
Tatum has an opportunity to bring home a championship to the Boston Celtics faithful at TD Garden; quite the moment. He is the most beloved current Celtic player, but he doesn’t have to be the focal point of their offense. His popularity is something Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets and Player Props have utilized to leverage against, and it has been highly successful.
Because of his name recognition, fame from numerous All-Star appearances and playing for the NBA’s most winning franchise, Tatum’s pointline can be inflated. It has been a constant throughout the playoffs, and although it is preferred to bet the under after a good performance, tonight presents another great opportunity for the under.
As mentioned, his point total did not go down, and as of now the sportsbooks seem content to leave it there. It is wise to exploit them for it with a unit wager. He could score much less, and he could go over. But the over seems unlikely unless the Mavericks choose to ignore him. He could also get in foul trouble early and sit out minutes.
The prediction is the offense to go through Holiday and Brown in Game 5, and if that happens Tatum should score much less than 28 points. There should be limited second chance opportunities with Lively II playing much better defense. Tatum also has 25 assists in the 2024 Finals; he is passing the ball to the open person for a more clear field goal attempt. Our NBA predictions are betting a unit for that to happen.
- Bet on Tatum Under 27.5 Points at Bet365 Sportsbook today!
Mavericks vs Celtics SGP: DAL +7.5, Lively II O8.5 R & Lively II O8.5 P (+350 on Bet365 Sportsbook) *0.5 UNIT
Today’s NBA picks are capped off with a three-fold Same Game Parlay with two player props and a straight bet. The neat part is both player props are on a single player, and a rookie at that.
Derek Lively II has been the most impressive rookie in the playoffs. The once great rivalry between the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs will be renewed with what could become the best two centers in the NBA (Victor Wembanyama the other).
Lively II is the leading rebounder of the 2024 NBA Finals with 37 in four games, or a little over 9 per game. He has not started one game of the Finals, which makes him being the leading rebounder even more impressive. He does not just bully the bench – he plays tough second half and closing minutes against Boston’s starters as well.
The rookie has also recorded a double-double in his last two games, as LIvely II continues to be a force around the rim. Tonight, we take the over on his offered line of 8.5 on both his points and rebounds. He has obviously exceeded these totals, and without Kristaps Porzingis the Celtics will have difficulty defending him. Add each fold to the parlay.
The Dallas Mavericks’ spread has been teased up one point. The reason being the sportsbooks have been within 0.5 points on the spread in three of Boston’s last eight games. Should they be within 0.5 again, this would cover it.
There is also a possibility that Dallas keeps their momentum rolling for a second straight game and crush the Celtics again. Avalanches can start with the smallest of cracks, and the best scorer in the league putting up 50 and carrying the Mavericks to a victory is a realistic outcome.
Another possible outcome is a last-minute victory from Boston. A come-from-behind 7-0 run, would give Boston the win, but not cover their -6.5-point spread. This game does not have a blowout feel to it with Dallas finding something that works. It could be reviewing the tape, gameplan, execution, better focus or simply being lucky. The truth is any or all of those could happen again.
Bet365 Sportsbook has a 50% boost for this match, and it should be utilized. It is capped off with a $30 max wager, but as always, one can bet again on the ticket without the boost. Regardless of your unit size, only half a unit is recommended.
- Bet on our Mavericks vs. Celtics Same Game Parlay at Bet365 Sportsbook today!
Again, if this happens to be the final game of the 2023-24 NBA season, I would like to express my gratitude for taking the time to read my NBA best bets column. I sincerely hope that you were able to achieve success and make significant gains throughout the season. I look forward to having all of you join me in the next campaign!
Make sure to visit Fantasy Alarm for additional advice on sports betting, detailed DFS analysis, NFL best ball cheat sheets and the most recent sports news.
Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All odds accurate at time of writing and NBA bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
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Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.