The Dallas Mavericks won against the Oklahoma City Thunder yesterday, and the same game parlay was successful! However Tim Hardaway Jr. could not get off the hook, and with a 2.1 unit recommended bet, canceled each other out. It was a close match and Tim Hardaway Jr. kept hopping in and out of the lineup but played his lowest amount of time during this series. Not exactly how we projected it yesterday, but a push in the first game.

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics game was close at times, but Boston was able to answer every Cavalier comeback. In doing so they gained control of the series 2-1. Evan Mobley covered his point total midway through the fourth quarter, making it another profitable day for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets. Meat Loaf is back on the menu this week and Fantasy Alarm looks to close the week with another winning performance.

There are two wonderful games today, the first is the New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, in what is setting up to be one of their best playoff battles. There is a plus odds player prop in this 3:30 PM ET match. The Denver Nuggets play the Minnesota Timberwolves in what should be a thrilling game. There are two bets from this game, one straight bet and one player prop. They too are at positive odds, but one has higher odds than the other.

 

NBA BET OF THE DAY MAY 12

AARON GORDON OVER 1.5 THREE POINTERS MADE (+350 ON BET365 SPORTSBOOK)

Aaron Gordon has been mentioned in this column before, but never for three point attempts. Yet here we are, the Bet of the Night on a forward that made forty three point attempts in the regular season. Fantasy Alarm is asking him to make five percent of his regular season average in one night, when the sportsbooks have his line set at 0.5 and -130 on the over. Perhaps you are wondering why?

There are a couple of reasons, first and foremost is the Timberwolves are leaving him wide open when he is behind the arc. The Timberwolves have the best defense in the Association but have left Gordon unattended when attempting three point field goals. It is a disrespectful act, and Gordon must have been given a boost of confidence from his teammates and coaching staff because he is letting them fly.

Not only has he been attempting them, nine in the last two games, but he’s been making them. Gordon has made three three point field goals in each of the last two games. Minnesota double teams Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic throughout the game, and Gordon is regarded as the starting Nugget with the worst probability of making a mid range or longer field goal. Not to worry because he has been scoring them with confidence and ease. 

This could be the case again as the Timberwolves will certainly be feeling the pressure and importance of this game. Aaron Gordon will find himself open behind the arc and if he has the confidence to attempt it, he has a good chance of making it. It appears as though he has been practicing three point attempts, and the Nuggets have made plays to get him wide open looks against the Timberwolves aggressive defense.

The odds are moved way up from 0.5 to 1.5 three's made. The payout is too high and a unit must be put down for two baskets to be made. 

ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN UNDER 9.5 REBOUNDS (+110 ON BET365 SPORTSBOOK)

Isaiah Hartenstein has found himself in a battle for both rebounds and playing time with his teammates. It is not enough that he is battling through Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner, and other Indiana Pacers, but his biggest competition is Joshua Hart, his teammate on the New York Knicks. 

Fantasy Alarm has bet on Hartenstein throughout the season, his over and under on both points and rebounds. Tonight we look at his rebounds, and are back on his under at positive odds! 

Hartenstein is still playing high minutes, despite being in foul trouble at times. He has played 36 or more minutes in every game of this series and will be called upon to play high minutes again. 

The problem is he is not getting rebounds, he has 26 in three games, or an average of a little over eight per game. He has one double-digit rebounding game this series and could be in line for another disappointing night on the glass. 

Hart has been the leading rebounder for the Knicks throughout the playoffs and his positioning is a marvel to watch. He outrebounded Hartenstein by ten in game three, and has forty-six rebounds in this series. Hart is the best 6’ 4” rebounder since prime Russell Westbrook, and he could be better. Hartenstein has to deal with that every night plus Myles Turner who earned ten rebounds and Pascal Siakam who is getting seven or more boards in most playoff games. 

It is a tough and physical game with a strenuous pace the Pacers are applying to the Knicks. Of all the Knicks players that seem to never get a break, I. Hartenstein is the most sluggish looking. Rightfully so, as most centers not named Nikola Jokic have a difficult time with a full game of up and down basketball. If he gets in foul trouble, it becomes a blowout, or he is being taken advantage of defensively then ten rebounds become difficult to obtain. Jericho Sims could play more than four minutes today too which would limit Hartenstein. 

There are several avenues to Hartenstein not grabbing 10 rebounds, and Fantasy Alarm places a unit on the plus odds prop with confidence.

DENVER NUGGETS MONEYLINE (+130 ON BET365 SPORTSBOOK) - 2 UNITS

The Denver Nuggets reminded everyone how great of an organization they are from top to bottom in a complete whistle to whistle thumping of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Although several thought the sweep was unavoidable for the reigning champs, Coach Malone had his team mentally and schematically prepared for that game. Look for more of the same tonight.

The odds have only slightly gone down since the Timberwolves loss and nothing indicates much should change in just two days. The long rest between games gave the Nuggets a major advantage to rest, look at film, and create plays that cater to each player's strength. It also was a game where the Nuggets dominated the rebounds, and had a high field goal percentage. Yet the spread is still in favor of Minnesota.

With less than 48 hours to plan for game four, Denver can rely on applying similar methods and look for their starters to have another big night. The fouls were appropriately called in game three with 45 total, 25 on the Nuggets and 20 on the Timberwolves. There were technicals given out in game three, and the NBA is likely monitoring the temperament of this game with both teams getting emotional.

But hey, this is a rivalry in the great Northwest division, these two teams know each other, the management know each other, some players have rivalries that extend to teams prior. In short, it is playoff basketball. 

The difference, once again, will be Denver’s offense. They helped carry game three’s point total to over the projected 205 points despite the bad night from the Timberwolves. All five Nuggets’ starters had double-digit points and if that continues tonight they will be a tough team to beat.

Although it is tempting, and smart, to take a teased up spread instead of the underdog moneyline, do not do it. Place two units on the moneyline, as the Nuggets have won two of their five 2024 playoff games on the last field goal of the game. Also with Bet365 if the selected team goes up by 20 points (as the Nuggets were for most of game three) the ticket automatically cashes regardless of the outcome. The same is not true for a spread bet.