Tony Brothers and his staff came through in the last minutes of the Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves game. In doing so the double-unit wager on the over was successful by two points. The Indiana Pacers could not sustain a lead over the New York Knicks, but did win a tightly contested battle. However, the spread was not covered due to this. 

 

Nikola Jokic had an amazing game, but fell four points short of the required total. He missed four field goal attempts inside the paint during the first half, the thinking was correct but the action did not follow. The night ended as close to even as possible for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets thanks to the double unit hammer on the total points of the Nuggets and Timberwolves game. 

The Dallas Mavericks host their I-35 neighbor to the North, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Their game begins at 3:30 PM ET and is followed by the Eastern Conference showdown between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. There are three wonderful bets in today’s action, all on player props as well. There is a same game parlay of combined player props in the first game, and it is the Bet of the Day. 

BET OF THE DAY MAY 11

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER AT DALLAS MAVERICKS

SAME GAME PARLAY: LUKA DONCIC UNDER 30.5 POINTS & DANIEL GAFFORD UNDER 11.5 POINTS (+210 ON BET365 SPORTSBOOK)

The American Airlines Center will be loud today as the Dallas Mavericks faithful see their stars in action. The AA Center is one of the few NBA arenas that can host over 21,000 people (with standing room) but Dallas fans do not need encouragement to cheer in any match against Oklahoma, especially not the Oklahoma City Thunder.

It will be a hot start for the Mavericks tonight, but can it sustain? They won three quarters in a row against the Thunder in game two, but despite that Luka Doncic did not score over 30 points. In fact he has scored under 29 points in five of his last six games. It could be the pressure, double-teams, or the physicality of long games wearing on him. It could also be his injuries.

Doncic has a sprained knee, a ‘tweaked’ ankle, and whatever damage came from that punch to the face from the court early in game two. Several players are battling through injuries at this point of the year, but Doncic has received all of these in May. That is a big difference, and affects several aspects of his scoring ability. 

He also is not in a great scoring rhythm, which is odd to say about the 2023-2024 scoring champion. He could snap out of it at any time, and truthfully scoring 28 or 29 points is amazing on most standards. With such a quick turn around and being banged up, under 30 points seems to be in our favor.

Daniel Gafford has become a fan favorite, and a perfect fit for Doncic. You can see the joy and happiness that he has played with since joining the Mavericks. Gafford dislocated his pinky on an attempted block, but was able to play through it after a quick visit to the locker room. It is on his right hand which could affect his throw down jams and scoring in general. 

Head Coach Jason Kidd has publicly stated that Gafford plays better in the evening. Perhaps it was the years on the East coast. Either way 2:30 in the afternoon is not a night game and he could have a slower start than normal.

Gafford has scored 13 or more points in his last three playoff games, but scored less than eight in the previous five. Gafford’s back up, Dereck Lively II, played good minutes in game two although it didn’t reflect in the stat sheet. Lively II could see more minutes tonight if Gafford is rested or having difficulty.

When betting the under on player point totals, penalties are always a friend. Both Doncic and Gafford are capable of getting in foul trouble with aggressive play. Doncic is also one of the more ‘mouthy’ players in the NBA and always has an earful for the referees. This has led to several technicals and less playing time.

Bet a unit on both of their under point props in what could be a competitive game. 

 

NBA PLAYER PROPS FOR MAY 11

TIM HARDAWAY JR. OVER 8.5 POINTS (-105 ON BET365 SPORTSBOOK) 2.1 UNITS 

Losing a bet is worse than a kick in the gut sometimes. Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets made Tim Hardaway over 5.5 points the Bet of the Night two days ago with supreme confidence the line was off. Hardaway Jr. scored 10 points in under 150 seconds of game play during game two, and went on to score 17 total points. 

The issue was we parlayed it with the total. Mental errors like that can eat one up the next day if you allow it. Luckily the sportsbooks did not compensate enough for his line and it’s back again. Just like Tim Hardaway Jr. when left open after a miss, Fantasy Alarm is making this basket. 

Nine points are well within reach for the Mavericks’ best scoring bench player. In the third quarter of game two, when Dallas’ back court needed a break, Hardaway Jr. essentially put the game away. He scored 10 points in what appeared to be under two minutes. It was a nasty flurry that brought back Dirk Nowitzki flashbacks, and silenced the Paycom Center for the rest of the night.

Hardaway Jr. was the leading sixth man candidate of the year halfway through the season, and he looks healthy and refreshed after a ‘rusty’ performance in game one. In addition to that Luka Doncic is legitimately injured and Coach Kidd has complete faith in Hardaway Jr when he is on the court. 

Despite playing less than 20 minutes in both games of this series, he has attempted four shots from deep in each game. He drove past the Thunder defenders for several easy buckets, and brought a different speed to the game than Doncic. The off-speed, uptempo play of his game is part of why he has sustained double-digit point averages his entire career.

Hardaway Jr. averaged 14.4 points per game in the regular season and for his line to be so low is a bit disrespectful to the 12-year veteran. The Thunder will press the Mavericks starters hard to begin this game, and Hardaway Jr. should see over 20 minutes on the court. Look for his rhythm to continue tonight and for him to score double-digit points again.

EVAN MOBLEY OVER 15.5 POINTS (-105 ON BET365 SPORTSBOOK)

Evan Mobley has really made a statement in these playoffs. Despite not getting off the hook on his rebounding line in the previous game, Fantasy Alarm is betting on him again. This time on his points. 

Mobley would have safely covered his rebounding line if the Cleveland Cavaliers did not completely blow out the Boston Celtics. That is always one risk on betting the over of any player prop, a blow out. However, if there is to be a blow out, points are needed and Mobley has been a consistent scorer in this series.

With Jarett Allen and Kristaps Porzingis injured, Mobley is oftentimes the tallest person on the court. He moves much quicker than Al Horford and has more size than any of Boston’s forwards. The 2021 third overall pick is truly breaking out in the 2024 playoffs, and he's a problem for the Celtics.

The Celtics are having an all-time year offensively and defensively, and losing one game to a good Cleveland team is not a reason to panic. The Celtics blew out the Cavaliers in game one, and vice versa in game two. Despite a blowout win and loss, Mobley has scored 17 or more points. 

Xavier Tillman of the Boston Celtics could play more minutes but it's doubtful he gets the start. Mobley can score on him just as easily as other defenders because Boston continues to focus on Donovan Mitchell defensively and rightfully so. Mobley is not asked to be the teams best scorer, and is oftentimes he is in one on one situations or unattended zone areas. 

Look for his involvement in the offense to continue and for him to score his series average or more tonight.