Happy Tuesday, everyone! Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets hopes you enjoyed the Meat Loaf with yesterday’s bets. Another two out of three successful bets, and both bets were double-unit wagers… you could say it was two servings of Meat Loaf.

 

 

 

With yesterday’s wins, my expert NBA picks have won seven of their last nine bets and returned just under 10 units! Jayson Tatum scored over 28 points to help the Celtics take a commanding 3-1 lead, but yesterday’s column was written before the news of Donovan Mitchell not playing. And, as an unspoken law, all suggested wagers are subject to new data. 

NBA Picks & Predictions: Tuesday, 5/14

There are two games today and both should be thrilling and competitive matches. The Indiana Pacers travel to Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Knicks. The opinions on the outcome of this series are almost split down the middle, and for good reason. The last game was the only blowout in the series, and there were several lead changes.

The Minnesota Timberwolves play the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena with a 10:30 PM ET start time. This divisional rivalry has made a fool of several analysts but has been a very profitable series for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets. There are two NBA predictions from this match, but the Bet of the Night is at Madison Square Garden.

 

 

 

Pacers vs. Knicks Prediction: Indiana Moneyline (+114 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Indiana Pacers were able to win two games at home and even the series against their rival, the New York Knicks. The Eastern Conference Semifinals now move back to New York, and the Knicks will look to rebound after a terrible display, but it won’t be easy.

OG Anunoby is added to the Knicks injury report along with Juilis Randle, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Mitchell Robinson. The Knicks are down to the core of their playoff caliber talent, and the Pacers are showing a willingness to utilize their bench.

Head Coach Rick Carlisle played 13 players in the blowout victory Sunday. All 13 had over nine minutes, and no player played more than 29 minutes. Although the Knicks may have better starting talent, the Pacers have the better coach, and coaching has turned this series from a potential sweep to an advantage to the Pacers. 

The Pacers got off to a hot start and had this game secured before the second quarter began. If they can do that again, they will have the depth to keep fresh defensive legs on the ‘Nova York’ trio of Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, and Josh Hart. If they can force two or more of them to have a bad night, the Knicks’ role players won’t be able to match the Pacers’ offense.

The Pacers’ pace is starting to wear down the Knicks, and it was on full display in Game 4. With the Knicks lack of bench depth and the Pacers pushing the game at the speed they enjoy, it makes the moneyline appear off. This line began at +140 and has slipped down to +114. 

The Pacers have the better coach, the deeper bench, a great point guard, and an underrated front court. A teased spread was almost suggested, but the risk of the refs/crowd tilting a close game back to a one score difference is too strong. The Pacers will have to blow them out for an alternate spread to be covered. With plus odds to win, take the advice of singer/songwriter Steve Miller, ‘Go on, take the money and run!’

 

 

 

NBA Props, Parlays, & Best Bets Today, 5/14

Sometimes you want to go where everybody knows your name, and sometimes you want to bet on the name that you are most familiar with. Or, at the minimum, the name you have seen the most on your betting tickets. Michael Porter Jr. is that name.

Additionally in my NBA predictions today, Denver is enjoying its best sports decade ever, and it has the fans a bit spoiled. They are hungry for a win at Ball Arena and to see their Nuggets take down their division rivals. It will be loud tonight.

 

 

 

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction: Michael Porter Jr. O2.5 Threes Made (-105 on Bet365 Sportsbook)

Porter Jr. has built an entire bankroll from three years of betting this exact wager with NBA best bets. Is it 100% successful? Of course not, but if a -200 odds bet, successfully cashes 20 times in a row.. Send a personal thank you card to the team/player that achieved it.

I’ve been betting on this line for so many years and so often that the up and down rhythm of his odds are predictable. Porter Jr. will go on a hot streak, as he did against the Los Angeles Lakers in round one. His odds will then get juiced to around -200 depending on the sportsbook. Then, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic will command the ball, and the offense will be run almost exclusively through them. This leaves Porter Jr. as almost an exclusive catch and release scorer. 

Porter Jr. will then go 0-2, or 1-7 as he has in two of the last three games, and his odds will return to positive or near even. Then, either Michael Porter Jr. speaks up, the coaching staff recognizes it, or the most likely scenario… Nikola Jokic realizes it mid-game and makes adjustments. Jokic will either actively look for Porter Jr. who is open on several offensive possessions, or he will dribble into a position that draws a double team and get the assists or hockey assists. 

He has covered this line in four of his last six games, he is back at Ball Arena, and Nikola Jokic will likely see more double teams and defensive pressure. Wildly enough, 50% of Michael Porter Jr.’s points have come from three pointers in this series. His point line is at 15.5 with worse odds, so bet smart and bet on him to make three or more threes in a pivotal Game 5. 

 

 

 

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets SGP: Denver ML, Denver To Win 4th Qtr, Nikola Jokic 25+ Points (+170 on Bet365 Sportsbook)

The Denver Nuggets have a chance to gain control of this tough Western Conference Semifinals tonight at Ball Arena. The Denver sports fans have endured the Nuggets losing two games at home followed by the Colorado Avalanche losing two playoff games at Ball Arena. 

The fans can only do so much, and this game will come down to the players. The moneyline was originally suggested, and I do have a one-unit wager on this match, but the odds have shifted to almost -200 on most sportsbooks. Any time you can get 50% of return on investment back it is a logical, and smart move. 

However, for those that want to cut the juice, this Same Game Parlay has been created. No spreads, but two moneyline bets on the game and the fourth quarter are combined with a teased down line of 25+ points for Nikola Jokic. The points have been teased down for the three-time MVP simply because he could be more of a facilitator and decoy to draw double teams. Even on the night he receives his trophy. If that is the case, 25 points is more than achievable for the best player of the decade.

The fourth quarter has been added to the moneyline for a three-leg Same Game Parlay boost that several books offer. The Minnesota Timberwolves seemed gassed and their body language is communicating frustration and a sense of being overwhelmed… except for Anthony Edwards. 

Edwards will do everything he can to keep this game competitive and keep the Minnesota Timberwolves in the game. Although he is young and playing 40+ minutes does not impact him in the same way it does others, the fifth game of this series is in the Mile High City. 

Anthony Edwards along with the rest of the Timberwolves will run out of steam in the second half as a physical series takes its toll. The heart of a champion can overcome many obstacles, so I’m betting on the Denver Nuggets to win a critical Game 5 with the last of today’s NBA predictions.

 

 

 

Thanks for reading my expert NBA picks for today! Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm’s sports tabs for betting, DFS, and best ball advice. 

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All odds accurate at time of writing and NBA bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise