NBA Best Bets Today, 4/9: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Wednesday
Yesterday’s NBA predictions on the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks was spot on, winning a +220 wager in the process. However, yesterday’s NBA best bets did not fair out as well. The Minnesota Timberwolves were well on their way to a victory with a 95-71 lead and only 10:00 minutes remaining in the game.
Then the Milwaukee Bucks had a comeback for the ages winning 110-103. A 40-13-point differential for the Bucks, utterly destroying the spread, even though the cash out value was almost the full wager. Such is sports betting at times.
Bruce Brown got nowhere near six rebounds, able to only muster half of that. Mark Williams was another disappointment as he only earned seven rebounds in 31 minutes. A rough Tuesday, but the good news is this is Wednesday, and winners are waiting to be discovered.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 4/9
The Association is pushing hard in the last week of the regular season. There are ten more games again today, and several teams in back-to-back matches. There will be spreads that are incorrect for more than one game.
The first of our NBA best bets today is on a team that did not play yesterday and has the late slate on ESPN.
Nuggets vs. Kings Prediction [Spread Ladder]: Denver -3.5 *2U (-105 on Bet365) & Denver -6.5 (+140 on Bet365) *BET OF THE NIGHT
In case anyone was sleeping in a cave, or out of touch with what had happened yesterday, the Denver Nuggets fired their decade long coach, Michael Malone, with just three games remaining in the season. An unprecedented move that left several fans, media personalities, and other NBA coaches bewildered. Fantasy Alarm’s Steven Hall has a great article on the Mike Malone firing from yesterday.
Malone spent over ten years with the organization, is the all-time winning coach of the franchise, is less than two years removed from winning the NBA Finals, and exceeded the projected win total every season. In today’s world that qualifies for being fired.
Reportedly the players were no longer responding to Malone’s hard nose demeanor. It has also been reported that Calvin Booth and Michael Malone were creating tension due to different philosophies, and the bad relationship was permeating through the organization.
They are both gone and David Adelman is the interim coach. The former assistant has been around the NBA since birth. His father, Rick Adelman, played in the NBA for 7 seasons, and coached for 23 seasons.
Oftentimes when the players are at ends with their head coach, and that coach is replaced, the team responds with maximum effort for their interim. Tonight should be no different. The emotions are sure to be mixed as Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter, and several recent draft picks have only played for Coach Malone, but Adelman has been with the organization since 2017. It should still feel somewhat familiar.
Nikola Jokic is still the best player in the universe, and the Nuggets were able to catch a break from the Timberwolves loss. A win by Minnesota would have pushed Denver to seventh due to tie breaking scenarios. Instead, they are still in fifth, and masters of their own destiny. That includes a must win on the road against the Sacramento Kings.
The Kings clinched a play-in spot yesterday, which has to feel like a great victory for their up and down season which ironically enough includes firing their head coach midseason. They are 1.0 games ahead of the Dallas Mavericks, who will be discussed later.
The Nuggets are tied with the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors, and Memphis Grizzlies with a 47-23 record. The Clippers play the Houston Rockets, and the Golden State Warriors play the San Antonio Spurs, this match has a must win feel to it for the Nuggets.
Denver averages 4.7 more points per game than Sacramento, 120.7 to 116.0. They are on their first four game losing streak of the season and are coming off an extended two days off. Sacramento has a +0.5-point differential, but Denver has a +3.6-point differential. Sacramento is .500 at home this season, but Denver is 22-17 on the road and 29-20 against the Western Conference.
Denver won the two teams most recent battle on March 5th 116-110, and without Jamal Murray the expectation is for a great night from the forward combo of Michael Porter and Aaron Gordon. Gordon specifically looked uninterested at times this year, and his defense has been noticeably worse. Perhaps this shake up will rejuvenate him.
The spread started at -2.5 but has moved a full point in most sportsbooks. Our NBA best bets today will put two units on the spread of -3.5, and one unit on a teased up spread of -6.5. A mini ladder is a great call as the Nuggets play with a new zest and try to earn Adelman the game ball.
Heat vs. Bulls Prediction: Josh Giddey O8.5 Rebounds (-105 on DraftKings)
A heavily weighted game between ninth and tenth placed teams takes place at the United Center, as the Chicago Bulls host the Miami Heat. This is a possible preview of the Eastern Conference play-in match, and the winner of this game will create 1.0 games of separation with just two matches remaining after.
For the moment they are even, and in more ways than one. Not only do they both have a 36-43 record, but they also both have won seven of their last ten matches. Chicago has only won 16 home games, and Miami has won just 16 road games. The winner of this match moves to within 0.5 games of the eighth place Atlanta Hawks, and out of the lose-and-out scenario.
Josh Giddey has been a major catalyst in the Bulls recent resurgence, and along with Coby White form one of the better backcourts in the Association. Giddey has been playing through injuries and putting up magnificent numbers over the past few weeks. He has recorded a double double in four straight matches, and six of his last eight games.
Although he did not play the Bulls most recent match, he and the others who were rested Tuesday in preparation for the second of back-to-back games. The Bulls knew this was an important match, and Giddey will need to continue to do it all in order for them to win. His rebounding totals over his last eight games are: 10, 19, 7, 8, 8, 14, 7, 10.
Although Giddey’s rebounding average is 8.0 per game, DraftKings has added the hook, and moved the odds to near even. Over the last three games, the Heat have allowed 52.8 rebounds per game. Giddey should have fresh legs and attack the glass against a much smaller back court. Put a unit for him to cover the rebounding prop and to anyone that is not a customer of DraftKings, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer.
Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 4/9
The first match on ESPN tonight features a game that people have been looking forward to since the news of the trade that shocked the world.
The last of our NBA best bets today comes from the Los Angeles Lakers versus Dallas Mavericks.
Lakers vs. Mavericks Prediction: Anthony Davis O9.5 Rebounds (-120 on DraftKings)
Luka Doncic was ejected last night in what many are considering a major mistake. Doncic was in a back and forth spat with a courtside fan, and an official mistakenly thought Doncic was speaking to him and not the fan. Although the language was likely something we could not repeat in this column, it does not mean it was a legitimate reason to eject a superstar in a close match.
It impacted the game, and the Lakers went on to lose against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Now they travel down the road to play the Dallas Mavericks who are one win away from a play-in clinching scenario. Dallas did not play yesterday, and although the Lakers are favored by -3.5 points, this game is more than about Doncic’s return to Dallas.
This game is also about Anthony Davis cementing himself in the hearts of Mavericks fans. Davis recently made a game winning field goal, and has really been the catalyst of Dallas playing their way into the play-in. Despite the fact that Davis has not been rebounding well, his average is still 11.9 per game. The Lakers allowed 44 rebounds against the Thunder and will have tired legs with more missed field goals. Davis should have ample opportunity to get rebounds.
Davis knows the Lakers well and will be able to position himself to take advantage of their smaller front court. He has played 27 or more minutes in each of his last six matches and should play around 30 minutes today. When looking at the double double line, the odds are set at -130, so over 9.5 rebounds at -120 is suggested. Look for Davis to make a statement against his former team, put a unit on him to record over 9.5 rebounds right now.
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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All NBA odds accurate at time of writing and NBA best bets today to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
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Ivica Zubac had a productive outing, finishing with 27 points (11-of-15 FGs, 5-of-8 FTs), five rebounds, one assist and two blocks in the Game 5 loss to the Nuggets on Tuesday.
Zubac continued to score the ball well, finishing with a series-high in points on efficient shooting. However, Zubac’s usual impact on the glass was absent as he secured just five rebounds in Game 5 after tallying at least nine in the previous four, with his one assist also tying his lowest output of the series. Down in the series 3-2, the Clippers head back to Los Angeles for Game 6 on Thursday, where they face a must-win situation to keep their season alive.
James Harden concluded Tuesday’s Game 5 loss to the Nuggets with 11 points (3-of-9 FGs, 5-of-8 FTs), eight rebounds, five assists and two steals in 35 minutes.
Harden had a quiet night on Tuesday, barely cracking double figures in scoring and failing to register double-digit shot attempts. The 2018 NBA MVP has faced a stifling Nuggets defense that, over the last few games, has forced the ball out of his hands, leading to inferior performances compared to earlier games in the series. Harden will look for a bounce-back performance on Thursday as he tries to lead the Clippers to a season-saving victory in Game 6.
Kawhi Leonard stuffed the stat sheet in Tuesday’s Game 5 loss to the Nuggets, posting 20 points (8-of-15 FGs, 3-of-7 FTs), nine rebounds, 11 assists, one steal, two blocks and one three-pointer.
Leonard did a little bit of everything for the Clippers in Game 5. The two-time NBA Finals MVP posted a series-high in assists and also hit the glass hard, resulting in a near-triple-double. Leonard has scored at least 20 points in all five games of this series. However, the Clippers may need even more from him going forward as they look to extend their season beyond Thursday’s Game 6 at the Intuit Dome.
Nikola Jokic earned a triple-double in the Nuggets’ Game 5 win on Tuesday over the Clippers, finishing with 13 points (4-of-13 FGs, 4-of-5 FTs), 10 rebounds, 12 assists, one steal, two blocks and one three-pointer.
The three-time NBA MVP had a relatively quiet game by his standards, but still came away with his third triple-double of the series. Jokic struggled with shooting efficiency, and his scoring output was the lowest of the series. Yet, his points were not as necessary in this game, given how well the rest of the Nuggets shot the ball. Nevertheless, Jokic will be in line for another big performance on Thursday when the Nuggets face the Clippers in Game 6.
Russell Westbrook came off the bench and produced 21 points (8-of-15 FGs, 2-of-2 FTs), one rebound, one assist and three three-pointers in the Nuggets’ Game 5 win over the Clippers on Tuesday.
Westbrook was electric in his first game back in the lineup following a foot injury that kept him out of Game 4. His second-quarter scoring ignited the crowd and helped set the table for what would be his highest-scoring game of the postseason. The 2017 NBA MVP has had himself a nice series thus far from a scoring standpoint and will have a chance to end his former team’s season on Thursday in Game 6.
Jamal Murray had a dominant Game 5 performance in the Nuggets’ win over the Clippers on Tuesday, tallying 43 points (17-of-26 FGs, 1-of-1 FTs), five rebounds, seven assists, three steals, one block and eight three-pointers.
Fresh off a series-low 13 points in Game 4, Murray exploded for a series-high on Tuesday. He totaled nearly as many three-pointers in this game as he had in the previous four combined, while still managing to dish out seven assists. Murray got hot early in this one and never cooled off, and now has provided his Nuggets the opportunity on Thursday in Game 6 to eliminate the Clippers for the second time in the last five seasons.