NBA Best Bets Today, 3/21: Michael Porter Jr. & Daniel Gafford + Rockets
Happy Thursday everyone! Meat Loaf is back on the menu, as two of three NBA best bets hit yesterday and… ‘two out of three ain’t bad’.
Pascal Siakam covered the hook late in the fourth, Grayson Allen cashed before the second half (again), and Gary Trent Jr. fell short by one successful field goal attempt. The sportsbooks are dialed in, yet Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets keeps making a profit of them. And profitable betting is the name of the game.
Today, there are seven games across the NBA and some wonderful matchups. In today’s column, a straight bet comes from the hottest team in the West… and it’s not who most think it is. There are also two player props with wonderful odds. One bet is on a player that has been mentioned twice this March.
The Bet of the Night falls on a familiar face, and one that has brought Fantasy Alarm NBA best bets many units this year.
Expert NBA Best Bet & Pick Today, 3/21
Michael Porter Jr. Player Props: First Three-Pointer Made (+370 on DraftKings) *0.5 UNIT
The New York Knicks vs. Denver Nuggets game has five good three-point scorers: Donte DiVincenzo, Michael Porter Jr, Jamal Murray, Jalen Brunson, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope… heck even Nikola Jokic has been making more threes.
Picking the first player to make a three-point field goal attempt is always a huge gamble, however Michael Porter Jr. has made more threes than anyone else in this match tonight: 190 on the season. Porter Jr. has also been one of the best players since the All-Star break. He has carried the Nuggets to tough victories, including their most recent against division rival, Minnesota Timberwolves. Porter Jr has attempted sixty-two threes this month, almost seven per game.
Early in the game Jamal Murray loves to penetrate into the paint, draw a double-team, and dish it off to MPJ waiting behind the arc. This is exactly what we need tonight. The Knicks do not have a defender to match up on Porter Jr. Betting his over 2.5 threes made is also a good call, although not mentioned in this column I will be placing it as well.
NBA Prop Bets Today, 3/21
Daniel Gafford Player Props: Over 11.5 Points (-105 on BetMGM)
A Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets favorite returns for his third appearance this month. Daniel Gafford is simply a different player with the Dallas Mavericks than he was with the Washington Wizards. It is crazy how important fit/scheme is for professional athletes to find success. Granted, Mark Cuban is one of the best owners across any sport, and the Washington Wizards have not had a 50-win season in 45 consecutive seasons.
However, it is Jason Kidd and Luka Doncic helping Gafford be the best player he can be. Since Gafford became more part of the rotation on March fifth, he has played over twenty-one minutes in every game. During that span he has scored twelve or more points in six of eight games played.
He has five or more field goal attempts in those games, with an average of over seven. Almost all of those field goal attempts are high percentage attempts. In fact, he made thirty-three field goal attempts in a row… second most all time. Tonight, the Dallas Mavericks host the Utah Jazz who are on a three-game losing streak and allow 120.6 points per game– the most in the Western Conference.
The Jazz also allow the second most points to opposing centers in the Association. Everything is set up for Daniel Gafford to have a great game against a bad team. His point line has moved up one, but the odds have moved near even. Fantasy Alarm will cash on this bet, just like we have on his other two-point props earlier this month.
- Bet on Daniel Gafford Over 11.5 Points at DraftKings Sportsbook today!
NBA Predictions Today, 3/21
Bulls vs. Rockets Prediction: Houston Moneyline (-165 on BetMGM)
The Houston Rockets are the hottest team in the Western Conference and have the second longest winning streak in the Association. They have won six in a row and put themselves back into play-in discussions. The Rockets are only three games behind the Golden State Warriors for the tenth seed.
The play-in is currently loaded with future Hall of Fame members as the Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Lakers, and Golden State Warriors are the 7-10 seeds. Houston has beat all of those teams and has a better home winning percentage than any of those teams. Tonight is the task at hand, and the Rockets host the Chicago Bulls.
Both of these teams have been playing well since the All-Star break, but Houston has won eight of their last ten games. Even more impressive is that Houston has been winning without their best player, Alperen Sengun. Sometimes a team’s best player being injured allows the others to display their skills better. This is just the case as Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green have stepped up with great, consistent performances.
The Chicago Bulls are banged up and Most Improved Player candidate, Coby White, is questionable. The Bulls are safely in the play-in with an eight game lead over eleventh place Brooklyn Nets and over four games away from sixth place. The Rockets must keep up this pace if they want to reach the play-in tournament. We are trusting the hottest team in the Western Conference to stay hot in a game they are favored to win.
- Bet on Houston Rockets Moneyline at BetMGM Sportsbook today!
Thanks for reading my NBA best bets today! Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs.
Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
Player News
Sam Hauser (ankle) is out for Game 4 against the Knicks on Monday.
While Hauser was listed as questionable for Game 4 with an ankle injury, he hasn’t seen any game action since leaving early in Game 1 of the series. Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla turned to Payton Pritchard for a series-high 35 minutes off the bench in Game 3 as the Celtics got back in the series with a 22-point victory. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see that recipe for success replicated in Game 4.
According to ESPN’s Shams Charania during an appearance on the Pat McAfee Show, Donovan Mitchell has been diagnosed with a re-aggravation of a left ankle injury and will be a game-time decision for Game 5.
Mitchell didn’t return after halftime of Sunday’s blowout loss, and Ty Jerome started in his place for the second half. The Cavs were getting stomped 80-39, but apparently the injury is more serious than initially thought, and his absence in the second half was more than precautionary. If he’s unable to go, Jerome would likely get the starting nod as Cleveland faces elimination at home down 3-1 in the series.
According to ESPN’s Shams Charania during an appearance on the Pat McAfee Show, Donovan Mitchell has been diagnosed with a re-aggravation of a left ankle injury and will be a game-time decision for Game 5.
Mitchell didn’t return after halftime of Sunday’s blowout loss, and Ty Jerome started in his place for the second half. The Cavs were getting stomped 80-39, but apparently the injury is more serious than initially thought, and his absence in the second half was more than precautionary. If he’s unable to go, Jerome would likely get the starting nod as Cleveland faces elimination at home down 3-1 in the series.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reports that Giannis Antetokounmpo “has not made any firm decisions, but for the first time in his career, he is open-minded about whether his best fit is remaining in Milwaukee – or playing elsewhere.”
No surprises here, as rumors of Antetokounmpo’s future with another team swirled as the season came to a close. Milwaukee finished the regular season 48-34 as the fifth seed in the East, and the Bucks were knocked out of the first round in a gentlemen’s sweep to the rival Pacers. With Damian Lillard out for most if not all of next season, the Bucks may choose to trade Antetokounmpo in the offseason and get a jumpstart on the impending rebuild. Fantasy managers should keep a close eye on an Antetokounmpo trade this offseason, as his future plans will be one of the biggest headlines heading into the 2025-26 season and could drastically shift fantasy values for a few other players.
Obi Toppin provided a boost off the bench with 20 points (9-of-14 FGs), five rebounds, two assists and one three-pointer in Game 4 against the Cavaliers on Sunday.
Toppin has been a solid reserve for Indiana all season, but he hadn’t been as productive in the postseason until Game 4. This was the second-highest scoring playoff game of Toppin’s career, narrowly finishing behind his 21-point game against the Bucks last season. Toppin will continue to play a large role off the bench, but the odds of him reaching 20 points again are slim.
Myles Turner lit up the Cavaliers with 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, three assists and four three-pointers in Game 4 on Sunday.
For the fourth time in Indiana’s last six games, Turner scored 20 points. This time, it only took him 22 minutes. Turner has been a big part of the offense recently, and the strategy is working; they are 4-0 when he scores at least 20 points during this postseason, and they’re 17-2 over the course of the entire season when he reaches 20 points. Turner will continue to feature heavily in the offense in Game 5 as the Pacers look to close out this series.