NBA Best Bets Today, 12/2: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Monday
An absolutely terrible day yesterday, as Fantasy Alarm lost all three NBA best bets, but all three were close. Close doesn't cut it in the world of betting though.
We will get back on track with great NBA picks and predictions to close out the betting week.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 12/2
Today is a new day and there are four NBA games in action. The column for NBA Best Bets today has action on every game too. Four bets that include three player props, and one game prop.
Even though the Chicago Bulls play, Nikola Vucevic over 1.5 threes made is not one of them. Instead, we look at the New Orleans Pelicans versus Atlanta Hawks for our bet of the night.
Pelicans vs. Hawks Prediction: Clint Capela Over 9.5 Rebounds (-105 on BetMGM) *BET OF THE NIGHT
The Atlanta Hawks are currently on a three-game win streak and have moved up to seventh place in the Eastern Conference. The New Orleans Pelicans are in last place of the Western Conference and on an eight-game losing streak.
The Hawks have a more complete roster than the Pelicans who have been decimated by injuries. As of now Dejounte Murray has the highest rebounding line for the Pelicans at 5.5, and the over is at plus money. Clint Capela will have little resistance from the Pelicans in rebounding tonight.
Capela has double digit rebounding totals in his last two games, and he has played 20 or more minutes in eight of his last ten games. As long as tonight’s match is not a blowout, Capela should easily earn 10 rebounds.
We bet on him in his last game, and he earned 10 rebounds in three quarters. We are counting on him playing 20-26 minutes and being a menace on the glass. Put a unit on our guy to deliver again.
Heat vs. Celtics Prediction: BOS Race to 10 Points - 1st Quarter (-165 on DraftKings)
The Boston Celtics are playing in the second of back-to-back games tonight, but so are the Miami Heat. Boston returns home, and Miami continues their road tour with a stop at TD Garden tonight. The Celtics and Heat both lost competitive games, the Heat by 3 against the Toronto Raptors, and the Celtics by 4 against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Good teams respond to tough losses with gritty performances, and both of these teams have represented the Eastern Conference this decade. They should each respond well, but Boston is averaging over 9 points more per game than Miami. Boston should come out looking to score early against their rival of this decade.
The Heat could start out hot, but after international travel, they won’t be as rested as the Celtics. Look for Boston to come out scoring quick and often, covering a rare game proposition bet for Fantasy Alarm.
Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 12/2
With only four games today, it is easy to have a wager in every game. Although there are not any plus odd bets today, it is a great opportunity to build the bankroll and finish the week off with a profitable day.
To do that 3 of the 4 picks must be successful, and there is a great deal of faith in the next two player props.
Nets vs. Bulls Prediction: Nic Claxton Under 10.5 Rebounds (-125 on DraftKings)
We have pivoted away from The Well for now, Nikola Vucevic has negative odds on both the over and under on his three points made, so we give it a rest. However, it is perfectly logical to take the over at -120 as well.
Instead, we look at Nic Claxton and take the under on his inflated rebounding line. Claxton is averaging 7.7 rebounds per game and has not recorded 9 or more rebounds in any of Brooklyn’s last ten games.
Vucevic may be spending more time out of the paint, but he is still a big man capable of blocking out Nic Claxton. The Chicago Bulls may allow the fifth most rebounds to opposing teams (55.0), but that is not a reason to spike Claxton’s rebounding line up to 11 this game.
Claxton has not played over thirty minutes in the Nets last games, and in addition to Vucevic, Josh Giddy, Cameron Johnson, and Dorian Finney Smith are big perimeter players capable of earning several rebounds too. Put a unit on the under on what appears to be an inflated line.
Lakers vs. Timberwolves Prediction: Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 Points (-110 on DraftKings)
Anthony Edwards point line is at 26.5 on BetMGM if you prefer to have a juiced, lower point level. However, Fantasy Alarm feels great about 27.5 points against an old Los Angeles Lakers team that is playing in the second of back-to-back games.
Edwards has picked up some of the slack in the void of Karl-Anthony Towns departure. His stats are up across the board, and if he keeps this pace, he will set career highs across most of his offensive statistics.
He is averaging 37.5 minutes per game and has played over 40 minutes in two of his last three games. Despite being ranked 11th in the Western Conference, the Timberwolves are only one game back from .500, and have a positive point differential. Edwards is a significant reason for the positive point differential.
The Lakers allow 115.2 points per game, which is a bottom ten defense. That number increases to 116 points on the road, and on the second of back-to-back road games they could allow even more.
Edwards has scored 28 or more points in three of his last four games, and he scored 27 against the Lakers in the opening game of the season. Trust the elite guard to score 28 points tonight at the Target Center, after a couple days of much needed rest.
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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All odds accurate at time of writing and NBA best bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
Player News
Jordan Walsh was ejected from Monday’s game against the Heat during the second quarter.
Walsh started well on Monday, but the 2023 second-round pick could not keep his cool, resulting in a premature trip to the showers. He picked up two technical fouls during the first half, the second after shoving Pelle Larsson out of bounds. With his contract for the 2025-26 season only partially guaranteed, Walsh can’t make his case from the locker room. He finished with 12 points, three rebounds, one steal and one three-pointer, shooting 5-of-8 from the field.
Ryan Nembhard amassed 11 points (4-of-8 FGs, 1-of-2 FTs), three rebounds, eight assists and two three-pointers in Monday’s loss to the Hornets.
Having already agreed to a two-way contract with the Mavericks, Nembhard knows he’ll be in training camp with the team this fall. However, his performances in Las Vegas have likely opened some eyes within the organization and throughout the league. Nembhard was the lone Mavericks player to score in double figures against the Hornets and was also responsible for eight of the team’s 15 assists. Nembhard won’t be worth the risk in fantasy drafts, but he could be an intriguing option for the future based on how he’s played in Las Vegas.
KJ Simpson produced 18 points (6-of-13 FGs, 4-of-4 FTs), one rebound, seven assists, one steal and two three-pointers in Monday’s win over the Mavericks.
Simpson cleaned some things up after shooting poorly in Saturday’s win over the 76ers. In addition to improving his shooting, the point guard committed just one turnover on the evening. Due to Charlotte’s depth at the point, Simpson’s chances of entering next season as a fantasy-relevant player are slim. However, due mainly to LaMelo Ball’s injury history, there may be opportunities throughout the season for Simpson to step into a larger role.
Kon Knueppel accumulated 16 points (5-of-10 FGs, 3-of-4 FTs), 10 rebounds, four assists, one steal, one block and three three-pointers in Monday’s win over the Mavericks.
Knueppel was far more impactful Monday evening after a pedestrian performance in his summer league debut on Thursday. The fourth overall pick in last month’s draft shot 3-of-5 from beyond the arc and was solid defensively, which likely mirrors what the Hornets will ask of Knueppel once the regular season begins. He’ll be more valuable to dynasty league managers than those competing in redraft leagues, but Knueppel possesses a relatively high floor in his new home.
Johnny Furphy accumulated 15 points (5-of-9 FGs, 4-of-5 FTs), six rebounds, two assists, two steals, two blocks and one three-pointer in Monday’s loss to the Bulls.
If Monday’s game was the last of the summer for Furphy, he finished with a flourish. The Pacers wing produced one of the highlights of summer league with his second-quarter dunk over Chicago’s Noa Essengue, and he was impactful on both ends of the floor. According to Pacers team president Kevin Pritchard, Furphy since the end of the 2024-25 season. He clearly needed to get stronger after playing limited minutes as a rookie, and he appears to have done that. Pacers coach Rick Carlisle does not hesitate to go deep into his bench, so Furphy will have opportunities to earn more playing time.
Kam Jones tallied 18 points (6-of-9 FGs, 2-of-2 FTs), four rebounds, six assists, three steals, one block and four three-pointers in Monday’s loss to the Bulls.
After mediocre performances in Indiana’s first two games of the summer, Jones was more productive against the Bulls. The second-round pick out of Marquette shot 4-of-5 from beyond the arc and recorded a complete stat line in Monday’s defeat. Jones’s ability to defend may improve his chances of earning playing time next season, especially with Tyrese Haliburton already ruled out with a ruptured Achilles tendon. That isn’t enough to make Jones a player worth selecting in standard leagues, but he’s worthy of consideration in deeper formats.