NBA Best Bets & Player Props Today, 2/13: Deandre Ayton Kept in Check
The sportsbooks have brought in relief pitchers, and they worked a great breaking ball yesterday. Three up and three down. Jamal Murray was injured, Luka Doncic was under by over ten points, and Victor Wembanyama had a triple double – some nights are like that in the betting world.
Not to worry as we are still well on pace for forty units, but we want winners, and today we look for some great lines with six games. Two games are nationally televised on TNT; the Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic starts at 7:30 and the Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns follow with a 10:00 PM ET.
Tonight’s wagers are on the big men, rim rebounders and paint dominators of the Association. We look at Domantas Sabonis in the second game of the doubleheader. There is also a wager in the night cap 10:30 PM ET match between the Detroit Pistons and the Los Angeles Lakers, as Jalen Duren’s line is evaluated. The Bet of the Night is in a Northwest Division rivalry as the Minnesota Timberwolves play the Portland Trail Blazers at the Moda Center. DeAndre Ayton makes a return to Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets.
Expert NBA Best Bet Today, 2/13
Deandre Ayton Player Props: Under 8.5 Rebounds (+120 at DraftKings)
DeAndre Ayton has been lackluster for the Portland Trail Blazers, despite them thinking he would be the player they build young talent around. He has been inconsistent all of this year, and it is reflected in his rebounding. He has recorded eight or less rebounds in five of his last eleven games, his minutes are anywhere from twenty-two to forty plus, and he has scored five to twenty-seven points during that span.
Though sporadic on the stat sheet, tonight is not a good matchup for the twenty-five-year-old. The Minnesota Timberwolves allow the seventh fewest rebounds to opposing centers, and the second fewest rebounds to opposing teams with 48.9. Rudy Gobert has a rebounding line of 12.5 on most sportsbooks and has the second highest rebounds per game average in the NBA. Forwards Karl-Anthony Towns and Jaden McDaniels are capable of grabbing rebounds as well.
Ayton could get in foul trouble against the great defender Gobert, or it could be a game DAyton does not give as much effort. A tough night for Ayton is a good night for us, and the data indicates it could be a low rebounding night for him.
NBA Predictions & Player Props Today, 2/13
Domantas Sabonis Player Props: Under 13.5 Rebounds (-115 at BetMGM)
Domantas Sabonis is the leading rebounder in the Association, with an average of 13.2 rebounds per game. His line has been set at 13.5 recently, and he has cashed on the under recently. He has thirteen or less rebounds in two of his last three games, and three of his last six. The Phoenix Suns allow the fourth fewest rebounds per game, 49.5 per game, playing even tougher at home with 48.6 average. As great as Sabonis is, he will have his hands full against the tough Jusuf Nurkic tonight.
In addition to that Kevin Durant has an average of 6.5 rebounds per game, with eight or more in four of his last five games. The Suns have a better point differential, and both are looking to get a win after losing their last game. The Kings are also on their second road game and the Suns are only 0.5 games ahead of the Kings as both teams try to avoid the play-in tournament. Look for the under on the leading rebounder tonight.
Jalen Duren Player Props: Over 11.5 Rebounds (-136 at FanDuel)
Jalen Duren has been one of the best and most reliable rebounders in the league. He currently has the third best rebounds per game average with 12.2. He has been a reliable player on an unreliable team. He has gone over this line in four of his five games this month, and six of his last eight games.
The Pistons are on an extensive road trip, but have won two of the last three games, and they gave the Los Angeles Clippers as much as they can handle. Luckily for Detroit they didn’t have to move cities or even hotels over their past four days, so in some ways it has been a relaxing break. They play their second game in a row at Crypto.com Arena and Duren should be charged for his match up against Anthony Davis.
The Lakers allow 51.3 rebounds per game, and the eighth most rebounds to opposing centers. Duren has cashed most of his rebounding lines for this column, and tonight should be the same result. Trust the young man on the glass tonight.
Thanks for reading. Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs across multiple sports.
Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.