NBA Best Bets & Player Props Today, 2/13: Deandre Ayton Kept in Check
The sportsbooks have brought in relief pitchers, and they worked a great breaking ball yesterday. Three up and three down. Jamal Murray was injured, Luka Doncic was under by over ten points, and Victor Wembanyama had a triple double – some nights are like that in the betting world.
Not to worry as we are still well on pace for forty units, but we want winners, and today we look for some great lines with six games. Two games are nationally televised on TNT; the Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic starts at 7:30 and the Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns follow with a 10:00 PM ET.
Tonight’s wagers are on the big men, rim rebounders and paint dominators of the Association. We look at Domantas Sabonis in the second game of the doubleheader. There is also a wager in the night cap 10:30 PM ET match between the Detroit Pistons and the Los Angeles Lakers, as Jalen Duren’s line is evaluated. The Bet of the Night is in a Northwest Division rivalry as the Minnesota Timberwolves play the Portland Trail Blazers at the Moda Center. DeAndre Ayton makes a return to Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets.
Expert NBA Best Bet Today, 2/13
Deandre Ayton Player Props: Under 8.5 Rebounds (+120 at DraftKings)
DeAndre Ayton has been lackluster for the Portland Trail Blazers, despite them thinking he would be the player they build young talent around. He has been inconsistent all of this year, and it is reflected in his rebounding. He has recorded eight or less rebounds in five of his last eleven games, his minutes are anywhere from twenty-two to forty plus, and he has scored five to twenty-seven points during that span.
Though sporadic on the stat sheet, tonight is not a good matchup for the twenty-five-year-old. The Minnesota Timberwolves allow the seventh fewest rebounds to opposing centers, and the second fewest rebounds to opposing teams with 48.9. Rudy Gobert has a rebounding line of 12.5 on most sportsbooks and has the second highest rebounds per game average in the NBA. Forwards Karl-Anthony Towns and Jaden McDaniels are capable of grabbing rebounds as well.
Ayton could get in foul trouble against the great defender Gobert, or it could be a game DAyton does not give as much effort. A tough night for Ayton is a good night for us, and the data indicates it could be a low rebounding night for him.
NBA Predictions & Player Props Today, 2/13
Domantas Sabonis Player Props: Under 13.5 Rebounds (-115 at BetMGM)
Domantas Sabonis is the leading rebounder in the Association, with an average of 13.2 rebounds per game. His line has been set at 13.5 recently, and he has cashed on the under recently. He has thirteen or less rebounds in two of his last three games, and three of his last six. The Phoenix Suns allow the fourth fewest rebounds per game, 49.5 per game, playing even tougher at home with 48.6 average. As great as Sabonis is, he will have his hands full against the tough Jusuf Nurkic tonight.
In addition to that Kevin Durant has an average of 6.5 rebounds per game, with eight or more in four of his last five games. The Suns have a better point differential, and both are looking to get a win after losing their last game. The Kings are also on their second road game and the Suns are only 0.5 games ahead of the Kings as both teams try to avoid the play-in tournament. Look for the under on the leading rebounder tonight.
Jalen Duren Player Props: Over 11.5 Rebounds (-136 at FanDuel)
Jalen Duren has been one of the best and most reliable rebounders in the league. He currently has the third best rebounds per game average with 12.2. He has been a reliable player on an unreliable team. He has gone over this line in four of his five games this month, and six of his last eight games.
The Pistons are on an extensive road trip, but have won two of the last three games, and they gave the Los Angeles Clippers as much as they can handle. Luckily for Detroit they didn’t have to move cities or even hotels over their past four days, so in some ways it has been a relaxing break. They play their second game in a row at Crypto.com Arena and Duren should be charged for his match up against Anthony Davis.
The Lakers allow 51.3 rebounds per game, and the eighth most rebounds to opposing centers. Duren has cashed most of his rebounding lines for this column, and tonight should be the same result. Trust the young man on the glass tonight.
Thanks for reading. Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs across multiple sports.
Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
Player News
ESPN’s Shams Charania reports the Magic signed PF/C Moritz Wagner has agreed to a one-year, $5 million deal.
Wagner tore his ACL in December, and he’ll miss time to start the 2025-26 season. Before suffering the injury, he averaged career highs in points (12.9), rebounds (4.9) and three-point percentage (36) in just 18.8 minutes per game. Once he returns, he’ll likely take on a similar role as a microwave scorer and spacer off the bench.
HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto reports the Rockets have signed Kevon Harris to a two-way contract.
Harris appeared in 36 games for the Magic during the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, averaging 4.0 points and 2.0 rebounds in 12.9 minutes. While he did not play in the NBA last season, the 6-foot-6 wing flourished in the G League, averaging 19.8 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. Harris is unlikely to impact fantasy basketball in Houston as a two-way contract player due to the Rockets’ depth.
Jahmai Mashack is headed to Golden State as part of the seven-team trade headlined by Kevin Durant.
Selected by the Rockets with the 59th overall pick in last month’s draft, Mashack was initially headed to Memphis via trade. Now he’s headed to Golden State as part of a trade that included an NBA record seven teams. Given his reputation as a rugged defender and “glue guy,” Mashack will look to earn an opportunity with the Warriors, who could use a low-cost contributor due to their current salary cap situation.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reports the 76ers signed Jabari Walker to a two-way contract.
To get a player of Walker’s experience level on a two-way contract is a shrewd piece of business by the 76ers. The 57th overall pick in the 2022 draft, Walker appeared in 60 games last season, averaging 5.2 points and 3.5 rebounds in 12.5 minutes. During the 2023-24 campaign, Walker started 23 of the 72 games he played, averaging 8.9 points and 7.1 rebounds in 23.6 minutes. With a healthy Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond, Walker’s minutes will likely be limited next season, but he’ll have some value on nights when Philadelphia is shorthanded in the post.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reports Jaxson Hayes and the Lakers have agreed to a one-year deal.
Hayes appeared in 56 games for the Lakers last season, making 35 starts. However, his role will be different in 2025-26, as Deandre Ayton has agreed to a two-year deal and will be the starting center. Hayes finished last season with averages of 6.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 0.9 blocks on 19.5 minutes per game. He did not provide consistent fantasy value as a starter, which should remain the case now that Hayes will be coming off the bench.
Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic reports the Suns are discussing a potential buyout for Bradley Beal.
Beal’s time in Phoenix has not been what anyone hoped it would be, due to the combination of injuries and underwhelming production. He’s been the focus of trade rumors in the past, but as one of two players in the league with a no-trade clause (LeBron James is the other), Beal has been incredibly difficult to move. Regarding a buyout, there are multiple issues at play. Accepting the deal would include Beal losing his no-trade clause, but he would be an unrestricted free agent once he clears waivers. The more significant issue is that Phoenix has already waived and stretched Nassir Little and E.J. Liddell, so they will need Beal to leave some money on the table. Per league rules, the amount of salary stretched cannot exceed 15 percent of the salary cap.