NBA Best Bets & Player Props Today, 2/10: Back To The Well Against Scottie Barnes
The New Orleans Pelicans are as consistent as the Milwaukee Bucks… which is to say they are not. It is okay though, yesterday was still more Meat Loaf for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets. The props came through while the straight bet did not. Sometimes you have to take your own advice. Still ‘two out of three, baby that ain’t bad’ and yesterday brought a profit of .32 units. As they say, ‘fish and bread keep a poor man fed." Today there are eleven games in the NBA, beginning at 3:00 PM ET with the Oklahoma City Thunder playing against the Dallas Mavericks, in an I-35 showdown. The Philadelphia 76ers, Charlotte Hornets, Houston Rockets, Atlanta Hawks, Toronto Raptors, and New Orleans Pelicans are all playing the second of back-to-back games as well. The books are onto us this morning as we pre-loaded five bets and four had their odds move and one disappeared altogether. Not to worry. Here at Fantasy Alarm we like winners! That is what we aim to find as well. There is only one nationally televised game today and that is the Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors with a 8:30 PM ET tip off. There will be a wager on this match of Western Conference teams of veterans. Our favorite rookie, Victor Wembanyama, makes another appearance in the column tonight as the San Antonio Spurs continue their Eastern Conference road trip against the Brooklyn Nets. There is also a wager in the match between the red hot Cleveland Cavaliers versus the Toronto Raptors, and it segues us perfectly into the Bet of the Night.
BET OF THE NIGHT
SCOTTIE BARNES UNDER 7.5 REBOUNDS (FanDuel Sportsbook -140)
The truth is this line is at 6.5 on both DraftKings and BetMGM, and it was tempting to take it at plus-money, as it is an odds difference of about 65%. However, we like winners, we don’t like using the expression, “look how close we were to plus-money.” Being close in betting does nothing positive. In fact it does the opposite. It leads to frustration, doubt, anger, and second guessing on your next bet. With that in mind, the bet was placed on FanDuel at 7.5, and this column has made a small fortune betting Barnes under 7.5 rebounds. The Raptors are playing in back-to-back games against a team that is on a heavy winning streak. They have won eight games in a row, moved into second in the Eastern Conference with little to-no-attention, and have been dominating almost all phases of the game. Barnes was able to earn 10 rebounds last night, earning his first double-double since January 22nd. Tonight he will be dealing with much larger men in the paint contesting his rebounds. Jarrett Allen’s rebounding line is at 10.5, Evan Mobley’s line is at 7.5, and teammate Jakob Poeltl’s line is at 9.5. Barnes is an amazing athlete, selected to the All-Star Game for a reason, but playing on back-to-back nights against a team just leveling their competition with two big men makes it difficult to believe Barnes can cover the over. He has only recorded eight or more rebounds in two of the last 12 games, and as stated this bet was once ‘The Well’ bet prior to the bookies moving his rebounding line down. Trust Barnes to keep stacking to this small fortune FantasyAlarm has built off of his rebounding line.
PROP BETS
VICTOR WEMBANYAMA OVER 10.5 REBOUNDS (-113 FanDuel Sportsbook)
When shopping around for lines, Victor Wembanyama jumped off the screen for his rebounds on FanDuel. On DraftKings and BetMGM his rebounding line was -145 for over 10.5. They removed it and his rebounding line has been moved to 11.5 at different odds for both of them. Wembanyama only earned one rebound in his last game and had a dip in his minutes. Prior to that game though, he covered this prop in four of his last five games, and six of his last seven. The Brooklyn Nets allow the eighth-most rebounds per game in the NBA with 52.9 per game, and they have allowed a 56.7 average in their last three games. The San Antonio Spurs are the worst team in the Western Conference, but it is not as though the Nets are great. This should not be a blow out game and Wembanyama should play closer to 30 minutes, as this is really the biggest threat for him not to cover this line. Nicolas Claxton is a good center, but he does not have the length and wingspan of Wembanyama who should be a true presence in the paint today. He averages 10.1 rebounds per game, and playing against a below average team should cover this prop some point in the fourth quarter. Trust the frequently mentioned 20-year-old with one unit.
BRADLEY BEAL OVER 4.5 ASSISTS (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bradley Beal makes his first appearance in Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets, and it is on his assists. He has been inactive/injured for most of the first part of the season, but has been on a roll lately. Beal has played every game since returning from December 29th, and the Phoenix Suns have benefitted from it. Since his return the Suns record is 16-6, and they have moved into fifth place in the Western Conference. The big three of Beal, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker are really living up to the hype. Tonight the Suns play at the Golden State Warriors. If you are anxious for the Super Bowl this will be a game to distract you for the evening. The smart bet tonight is the assists line of Beal, as he has covered this line in six of his last seven games, and eight of his last ten. There are shooters on either side of Beal at almost all times, and he will be looking at center Jusuf Nurkic as he has a clear advantage over the Warriors centers. Both of these teams have won three in a row, the difference is the Golden State Warriors are currently not even in the play-in, and the Suns are safely in the playoffs. Beal should have this line covered before the fourth quarter begins. Trust a unit on it.
There is serious potential to reach the season long goal before the All-Star break, or even before the Super Bowl tomorrow. If and when this happens we will formulate a new goal, and attack with calculated bets as we have done so far.
Thanks for reading. Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs across multiple sports.
Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.