Happy Monday! Today is a good day to go over tracking your bets. Odds are if you are reading this you probably make bets outside of Fantasy Alarm’s Best Bets. If you are, make sure you are tracking your bets! It can be with pen and paper, spreadsheets, or an app that auto-populates your bets… both wins and losses. For if you are lying about your return on investment, you are only doing yourself a disservice. If you really want to become a professional bettor, you will track which of your bets are successful, which ones are not, and adjust accordingly… pro tip.

We have eleven amazing games in the NBA today. That is over 70% of the league in action, and that means we flip through every game (and over rock) looking for the best bets for you. Five of the last six bets have hit, and according to Newton’s first law… it should stay that way. Tonight features an Eastern Conference rivalry stemming from the early 90s, as the Chicago Bulls travel to the Indiana Pacers. There is a Denver Nugget player that has covered a prop bet in EVERY GAME THIS SEASON… and his name is not Nikola Jokic! Plus a heated Western Conference showdown, that features a double-down of the player that will be the face of the NBA once Lebron retires… and the team he was on didn’t even make the Play-in last year!

 

NBA Best Bets & Player Props October 30

BET OF THE NIGHT: DOUBLE-UNIT ALARM!!! 

Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets – OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-105 BetMGM)

Magically this prop was at +100 when it first came out… even robots are prone to errors. Can you imagine a prop bet covering (with ease) every game of the season and the bookies gave it plus-money?!?! Not to worry as -105 on this bet is just as silly on their part. MPJ is being used more in the front court, and MPJ is a PROBLEM! He is 7 foot tall, put on some muscle this off-season, and is attacking the defensive glass. 28 of his 34 rebounds are defensive boards. He is averaging 11.3 rebounds per game… that is tied for 9th best in the association. He was rested in the blowout last night with less than 25 minutes played and should be fresh at home. The Utah Jazz do bring size with Lauri Markkanen (7’ 0”) and Kelly Olynyk (6’ 11”), but MPJ has been playing with great anticipation and using inside play/leverage to boost his rebound percentage. He could see more than 30 minutes tonight as backup Peyton Watson played his most minutes since early April. Put the double unit on it, and hopefully, it hits before the 4th quarter begins.

STRAIGHT BET: DOUBLE UNIT ALARM!!! 

Indiana Pacers Moneyline (-150 BetMGM)

The Pacers are hosting the Chicago Bulls tonight at 7:10 PM ET. This is a rivalry that goes as far back as the 90s when Michael Jordan and Reggie Miller playoff games were must-see TV. As early as it is in the season, the trajectory of these teams is the complete opposite. The Chicago Bulls had a players-only meeting after a game one loss, are completely set on reverting to ISO ball with the smallest of deficits, and their only win came in overtime. The Indiana Pacers just extended Head Coach Rick Carlisle, brought in a key veteran in Bruce Brown, and are currently first in the Central Division (Chicago is last). The point differential of this game is not only the highest of the Central Division, but the highest of ANY TWO TEAMS IN THE EASTERN CONFERENCE! Let that marinate in your mind for a second or two. This line is set at -150, once again an early season error in the bookies algorithm. Although the Chicago Bulls have three all-star starters in DeMar DeRozan, Zach Lavine (day to day), and Nikola Vucevic, the Pacers have the better complete team with Tyrese Haliburton, Bruce Brown, and Myles Turner leading the starters. In addition to a deep bench, they also have an NBA Champion coach who is whipping the Pacers' rebuild into shape quickly. The Indiana Pacers have won four in a row, going back to the pre-season, it should be 5 relatively easy after tonight. 

NBA Same Game Parlay

Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks – OVER 8.5 Rebounds & OVER 6.5 Assist (+115 DK) – .5 Unit

Luka has been a scoring machine averaging 41 points through two games. The Dallas Mavericks are 2-0 on the season, despite sloppy games against the San Antonio Spurs and the Brooklynn Nets. What has gone a bit under the radar is Luka’s rebounds and assist line. He is averaging 8.5 assists per game and 11.5 rebounds per game… Doncic is a complete player, listed as a point guard. The Memphis Grizzlies' Marcus Smart is a great defending point guard, but he gives up four inches to Luka Donic. This should allow Luka to rebound with ease when paired up against him, and on pick and rolls, Doncic can draw a double-team and find the open post player. He has gone over each of these teased lines in both games, and if they pressure Luka Doncic the way they did Jamal Murray and CJ McCollum, Luka will be forced to pass the ball more. His rebounding and assist lines have both been dropped one. This allows us to cover the bookies' set hook line, and combined into a same-game parlay gives us better odds than offered to individual props. 

 

Thank you for reading.
Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise