NBA Best Bets & Player Props January 20: Betting Against Brook Lopez
In the immortal words of Ric Flair, ‘WOOOOOO!’. That’s correct friends, another sweep last night for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets. That makes the third sweep this week and we are not finished. There is a loaded NBA slate today despite the NFL divisional playoffs kicking off. There are eight games, with the Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons beginning at 3:00 PM ET. There are no nationally televised games today, as the NBA gives way to the NFL playoffs. However if you get to watch your local teams, betting live can be very profitable. Not to worry though, we have found a plethora of good bets. There will be a straight bet at plus odds, a reliable prop bet, and a teased same game parlay with positive odds. The bet of the night is the positive odds straight bet in a line that appears to be miscalculated.
BET OF THE NIGHT
UTAH JAZZ MONEYLINE (+115 BetMGM)
The Utah Jazz are the hottest team in the Western Conference and it is not even close. Despite a tough loss against Oklahoma City Thunder, they still have won eight of their last ten games. They are collectively healthy for the first time this season, and Collin Sexton paired with Lauri Markkanen are giving teams fits. The best move they have made is putting Jordan Clarkson back to the sixth man, coming off the bench. He is able to have the ball more and he is back to being an elite scorer. He has seventeen or more points in every game but one this month, and six with twenty or more. The Houston Rockets have lost three in a row, and six of their last ten. The Rockets play good defense but have been a team incapable of shutting down opposing front courts. The Jazz have an All-Star in their front court, and a lethal sixth man of the year winner. This line is off, all Jazz players are scheduled to play and they should beat the Rockets. Put a unit on them.
PLAYER PROP BET
BROOK LOPEZ UNDER 5.5 REBOUNDS (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The reliable bet makes another return to Fantasy Alarm NBA Best bets. This is a juiced line, but with Jalen Duren the opposing center, and a possible low minute fourth quarter for Brook Lopez, a wager must be placed. Giannis Antetokounmpo is scheduled to make a return, not that it helped B. Lopez with his rebounding against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he should take away rebounds from B. Lopez. This bet has been very profitable, and when mentioned has cashed every time. The best scenario is B. Lopez stays outside of the arch, and the Bucks blow out the Detroit Pistons allowing B. Lopez to rest most, if not all, of the fourth quarter. Oddly enough the Milwaukee Bucks play the Pistons or Cavaliers in five straight games in a span of nine days. Six rebounds for the center could be out of reach again tonight. Trust the bankroll building bet.
SAME GAME PARLAY
NY KNICKS -3.5, ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN 10+ REBOUNDS, SCOTTIE BARNES UNDER 8.5 REBOUNDS (+118 DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is a teased down parlay on some of Fantasy Alarm’s favorites. Isaiah Hartenstein of the New York Knicks and Scottie Barnes of the Toronto Raptors, and a battle of teams that recently traded players. It was tempting to place a wager on ‘the well’ of Scottie Barnes under 7.5 at -120 on Draftkings, and taking that bet is still a great angle. All the data indicates that ‘the well’ should cash again. S. Barnes has only covered the line one time this month, the Knicks allow the fewest rebounds to opposing teams with 48.8, Hartenstein is like windex on the glass cleaning up everything, and ‘the well’ has been successful six times this month. However, I have a hunch that he could get up to eight rebounds today, after all the law of averages are against the under as is the fact that S. Barnes has moved to the power forward position after the Pascal Siakham trade. So just to be safe, it has been teased up one rebound.
Hartenstein’s rebounding line is currently 11.5, and he should cover, but his line has been teased down to 10+. This allows two less rebounds than the projected line, removing the hook altogether. The New York Knicks’ spread has also been teased down four points. The logic is that the Knicks have a +4.1 point differential, and these teams have factors the computers are not accounting for. The trade on December 30, 2023 between OG Anunoby, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickly. There is still love from the Knick faithful for Barrett and Quickly, there could be underlying motivation for all of these players as frustrations from scrimmages and in the locker room get an opportunity to be settled. Plus the egos of the coaches that want to display they know how to get the best out of a player in a manner the other teams did not. Three legs can be difficult but a triple teased down line, with positive odds at Madison Square Garden is a smart and fun bet.
Thank you for reading and remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs.
Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise