It was another perfect night of betting for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets, three of three. This column has won the last eleven of twelve bets and we are on the look for winners today. It is also another milestone, or hurdle cleared in the quest for forty units. Thirty-two units is another twenty percent (eight units) towards our goal, and it is advised to withdraw your eight units. This still leaves us over our initial bankroll and removes the chance of blowing our profit. There are nine NBA games on the first Sunday without football since the beginning of September. Two of the games are nationally televised, NBATV has the Phoenix Suns at Washington Wizards beginning at 3:30 PM ET. ESPN has the Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics at 6:00 PM Eastern. The bets for today do not come from these games though, and instead focus on some players that have been cashing for us recently. Bam Adebayo, Simone Fontecchio, and Nikola Jokic are playing consistently, and they are the three props to bet on today.

 

BET OF THE NIGHT

BAM ADEBAYO OVER 10.5 REBOUNDS (-105 BetMGM)

Bam Adebayo is averaging a double-double and this exact same rebounding line is one of the eleven that have recently cashed. He has eleven or more rebounds in four straight games and six of his last seven. The Miami Heat are hosting the Los Angeles Clippers who are one of the better teams in the league. The Clippers are also tough to get several rebounds against, they allow 49.9 per game, tied for fifth lowest in the league. However, in their last three games they have allowed 51.3, and allow an average of 51.0 on the road. They have two excellent forwards that can earn several rebounds when they play with maximum effort… but Paul George and Kawhi Leonard do not play every game with maximum effort. In addition to that the Clippers are still without their starting center Ivica Zubac forcing Mason Plumlee and Daniel Theis into several minutes of action. Neither one of those guys can ‘hold a candlestick’ next to Bam Adebayo, he is red hot. There will be tons of shots from the Clippers as well as teammates Terry Rozier and Tyler Herro, which would allow Bam to earn a few more offensive rebounds. The Clippers are average against centers, but Bam is not average and he should get his eleven rebounds to cover this prop.

PLAYER PROPS

SIMONE FONTECCHIO OVER 3.5 REBOUNDS (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)

For the beginning of January. Scottie Barnes was ‘the well’ implying betting on his under was reliable as water coming from the town well. The sportsbooks have adjusted Barnes’ line and it is more difficult to be correct on. Simone Fontecchio of the Utah Jazz unexpectedly, and seamlessly became the new well with four successful bets on over 3.5 rebounds. The sportsbooks are not adjusting his line because his average is exactly 3.5, he is not a star player, and they are not looking into the deeper data. The Utah Jazz are hosting the Milwuakee Bucks who played the Dallas Mavericks last night, at Dallas. It was an 8:30 PM ET tip off, and they flew to Utah after that game… not the shortest of flights. It is a 6:00 PM local tip off, which would be two games within twenty-four hours, or at least one and a half. Our boy, Fontecchio has cashed the over on this rebounding line in nine of his last ten games. He usually covers just over the hook, only exceeding four rebounds in four of those nine overs. He plays aggressively, has been playing somewhere between twenty-two and twenty-nine minutes, and could be playing against bench players tonight. He usually earns this in the first half of games, and let’s hope he is as reliable as ever. If the odds are too high for your liking, simply add a half a unit to the one unit for over a unit return.

NIKOLA JOKIC OVER 12.5 REBOUNDS (-105 BetMGM)

The reigning NBA Finals MVP is back in the column, and the prop is near even odds. Nikola Jokic is on pace to bring home his third regular season MVP. He is a man on fire averaging 26.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 9.1 assists per game. The Denver Nuggets are hosting the Portland Trail Blazers for the second straight game, but there was a day of rest between games. DeAndre Ayton is not living up to the standards and hopes that the Trail Blazers had when they traded for him. He was outrebounded by Jokic 22-to-3. There will be adjustments made by both teams, but that is not fluke for Jokic. He has ten more rebounds in his past eleven games. He has covered this prop in his last three games, and has a favorable matchup against Portland. Thirteen rebounds is several, but for a three time MVP, it’s just another stroll through the park. At near even odds, this is one of the better bets out there today.

Thanks for reading. Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs across multiple sports. 

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise