NBA Best Bets & Player Props December 20: Joel Embiid Takes on Rudy Gobert and the Timberwolves
The NBA has a loaded slate today with ten games in action or two-thirds of the league. There are two nationally televised games today, the first being the Minnesota Timberwolves at Philadelphia 76ers with a 7:00 PM ET tip-off on NBATV. There are two bets on this game, one is surprisingly at plus odds, and one is a proposition bet on the reigning MVP, Joel Embiid. There is also a bet on the international game featuring two NBA champion teams over the past five seasons.
The Denver Nuggets travel to the Toronto Raptors with a 7:30 PM ET tip-off. There is a proposition bet on Aaron Gordon who has been playing well since recovering from his heel injury. Two intraconference games take center stage tonight, and if you prefer late live betting, the Boston Celtics play the Sacramento Kings after an overtime loss to the Golden State Warriors. The match is televised on NBATV, and there could be some good angles for the Kings in that match.
NBA Bet of the Night
Aaron Gordon OVER 13.5 Points (-115 at DraftKings)
Aaron Gordon has been playing on a roll lately. He has gone over this prop in four of his last five games, including the most recent against the Dallas Mavericks which he sat for the entire fourth quarter. In the game he didn’t have thirteen points he played only three quarters as well, against the Brooklyn Nets. The Denver Nuggets begin an Atlantic road trip with three games against Eastern Conference opponents which they have a better record than.
The Toronto Raptors give up the 20th most points to opposing forwards, and they do not have a defender that can withstand the ‘Bully Ball’ of Aaron Gordon. Gordon along with Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic are in a fantastic rhythm with each other, and Gordon receives the least defensive attention out of three. This allows Murray and Jokic to find Aaron Gordon near the rim for easy slam dunks and easy shots. Aaron Gordon is also improving his three-point making, he made two of three in his last game, and if left as open as he has been, will continue to shoot more.
NBA Straight Bet of the Night
Minnesota Timberwolves Money Line (+135 at BetMGM)
Truthfully, the straight bets have been taking it hard in this column. Last night two moneyline bets over -200, one at -300, were combined to make a favorable parlay near even odds… both teams lost. The player props are Fantasy Alarm Best Bets, bread and butter, but the disrespect to Minnesota has allowed an opportunity for a favorable plus odds bet. The Timberwolves have spent more time as the number one team this year than they have in the past thirty-four years COMBINED! Really let that statistic marinate in your mind.
The Timberwolves are playing excellent defense and have scorers that can keep pace with the best-scoring teams if needed. Minnesota is on the road against a good Philadelphia 76ers team, but they aren’t great. These two teams receive the opposite treatment, The Minnesota Timberwolves are shunned, and people are saying about them what they said about the Nuggets last year. ‘Oh it’s fun to see them do well now, but they will collapse later in the season’.
The Philadelphia 76ers have been praised with a new coach and the play of Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, but they have predominantly played horrible teams in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they have a true test against a Minnesota team that has won nine of their last ten, on a three-game winning streak, and have one of the best defending centers in the NBA, Rudy Gobert. Expect Minnesota to beat the 76ers.
NBA Prop Bet of the Night
Joel Embiid UNDER 12.5 Rebounds (-140 at DraftKings)
The supportive reasoning for the Minnesota Timberwolves to win is in part due to the fact that Joel Embiid is going to play the best defensive center he has seen this season, Rudy Gobert.. Embiid ‘ducked’ the Minnesota Timberwolves in their first matchup and the 76ers lost by thirteen points. Embiid has recorded double-digit rebounds in eleven straight games, but also ducked against Jonas Valanciunas and a tough Boston Celtics defense.
Embiid has played one worthy center this season, Anthony Davis, and in that match, he did not get thirteen rebounds. Gobert is not intimidated by J. Embiid’s scoring ability and he will have Embiid working for every shot and every rebound. Trust the under in a tough center-versus-center match for the MVP.
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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
Player News
Anthony Davis (adductor) and Brandon Williams (oblique) are probable for Friday’s game against the Grizzlies.
Davis was listed as probable Wednesday against the Kings, but ultimately played 35 minutes and had 27 points in the win. The 32-year-old is once again listed as probable with the adductor injury that sidelined him earlier this season. Davis figures to be available as the Mavericks battle the Grizzlies for the eighth seed in the Western Conference on Friday.
Ja Morant (ankle) is questionable for Friday’s game against the Mavericks.
Morant told reporters after Tuesday’s loss to the Warriors that he expects to play Friday. Nevertheless, the 25-year-old point guard missed practice Thursday and is officially listed as questionable with a right ankle sprain. While it’s hard to envision Morant sitting out a game of importance like Friday’s, his ankle is clearly bothering him. If Morant is out, Santi Aldama and Luke Kennard will be in line for extra minutes with Kennard potentially moving into the starting lineup.
Trae Young (Achilles) is probable for Friday’s game against the Heat.
Even in the postseason, the Hawks continue to list Young as probable with an Achilles injury. The listing is performative, stemming from Young being held out of an NBA Cup game earlier this season despite not appearing on the injury report, which resulted in a $100K fine for the Hawks. With the Hawks’ season on the line Friday, expect Young to be cleared to play once again.
Pelle Larsson (ankle) and Nikola Jovic (hand) are questionable for Friday’s game against the Hawks.
No big surprises on the Heat injury report heading into Friday’s game. While Larsson and Jovic are questionable, Duncan Robinson (back), Alec Burks (back) and Haywood Highsmith (Achilles) are all available. Larsson was questionable, but ultimately available against the Bulls Wednesday, though he didn’t play due to coach’s decision. Jovic was out Wednesday as he hasn’t played since February with a broken right hand.
Ja Morant (ankle) missed practice on Thursday and will be a game-time decision against the Mavericks on Friday.
Morant finished out Tuesday’s game against the Warriors after injuring his ankle during overtime and said after the game that he will play on Friday. It’s difficult to imagine him not suiting up for a win-or-go-home game, but the ankle is clearly bothering him quite a bit, which could impact his performance on the court. If something changes, Santi Aldama and Luke Kennard will take on extra minutes, with Kennard potentially replacing Morant in the starting unit.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reports Damian Lillard has been cleared of his deep vein thrombosis and is no longer on blood-thinning medication.
Charania also reported that this is an incredibly quick recovery for Lillard that was made possible by early treatment. It is an excellent development for both Dame and the Bucks. He has been ruled out for Game 1 against the Pacers on Saturday, and they will give him time to ramp up before he returns to the lineup. It’s unclear what that timeline looks like, but Lillard is certainly on pace to return sooner rather than later. Ryan Rollins should continue to start in place of Dame until he returns.