NBA Best Bets Today, 6/5: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - NBA Finals
Meatloaf was served on the last day of the Conference Finals. The New York Knicks played an excellent first half of game six, but were blown away in the second half by the Indiana Pacers. For Indiana, the second time was the charm as they won the series 4 - 2, after losing to the 2024 NBA Champion Boston Celtics.
The Pacers were unable to cover the first quarter spread, but did cover the game spread. Pascal Siakam’s three-point player proposition was covered in the first quarter. He was on a roll that night and ended with 3 made three-point field goals, 31 points, and 3 blocks. That led to him earning the Larry Bird Trophy as the best player in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Two of three once again for Fantasy Alarm Best Bets, and after an extended break, we focus on the iconic event that is the NBA Finals.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 6/5
The first NBA game of June is taking place tonight as the two best teams of 2025 clash in what should be a thrilling series. Four NBA Best Bets are given out to celebrate the start of the last series of the season.
Pacers vs Thunder Prediction: Indiana +9.5 (-115 on Bet365) *BET OF THE NIGHT
The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Indiana Pacers at Paycom Center for game one of the NBA Finals. The Thunder should win the game tonight, but the sportsbooks have a spread of -9.5 in their favor. That is disrespectful to a team that just took down three teams on their way to the NBA Finals.
Pacers Head Coach, Rick Carlisle, said in a postgame conference against the Cleveland Cavaliers, that the Pacers would be underdogs in every game going forward. Except for game six of the Eastern Conference Finals, that has proven to be true. Now they are expected to lose by double digits in what is the biggest game of the season. Something isn’t adding up correctly.
First off, Carlisle has been in this situation as both a player and a head coach. In fact, he is 1 of 11 people who have won an NBA championship as both a player and a head coach at separate times. Carlisle will be coaching in his second NBA Finals, and Thunder Head Coach Mark Daigneault is coaching his first NBA Finals series. That experience alone could help, as both teams' players and staff will be anxious at tip-off.
Pascal Siakam was a major contributor in the 2019 championship for the Toronto Raptors. He averaged 19.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.7 assists in his first NBA Finals. His skills and leadership will be leaned on for Indiana, which could pull off one of the greatest upsets of all time. They were +5000 to win the NBA Finals at the start of the season.
Alex Curasco was a member of the 2020 Championship Los Angeles Lakers, and his leadership will be depended on too. He averaged 6.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in the 2020 Finals and was able to limit Jimmy Butler’s offensive production. He should have better offensive numbers and maintain his great defense in his second NBA Finals. As the only player with previous experience, his communication and minutes will be vital to their success.
Indiana must force Oklahoma City into a low field goal percentage and turn defensive rebounds into fast break points to win this series. They have the defenders to do it, and the expectation is for their starters to exceed expectations in game one.
However, this best bet needs them to lose by 9 points or less to be successful. Put a unit on the Pacers to cover the +9.5 spread tonight at Bet365 and take advantage of the promotional offer at the end of this article.
Pacers vs Thunder Prediction: Myles Turner Over 5.5 Rebounds (+100 on BETMGM)
Myles Turner is the longest tenured Indiana Pacer, and has an opportunity to go down as one of their best draft picks. The former Texas Longhorn was the 11th draft pick of the 2015 NBA Draft and has spent his entire career with the Indiana Pacers. He has been through several lows and is enjoying the highest of highs. However, he is also coming off a bad two-game stretch.
He was in foul trouble in both games five and six of the Eastern Conference Finals. Due to that, he played the least amount of minutes of the series, 24 in game four and 21 in game five. The frustration was evident, and he knew he must play better for the Pacers to become champions.
He is a starter and has a great opportunity to make an impact on this series. That impact starts with rebounding and is an area he must improve at. He did not record over 6 rebounds in the Eastern Conference Finals, but had seven or more in four of the five games against the Cavaliers.
Turner averaged 6.5 rebounds per game in the regular season, and the expectation is for him to earn over 5.5 rebounds tonight. Put a unit on this best bet at BETMGM with +100 even odds, and for those new to BETMGM, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer for up to $1,500 in bonus bets.
Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 6/5
With the NBA Finals beginning today’s column features four best bets, and the third one is on Myles Turner once again.
Pacers vs Thunder Prediction: Myles Turner Over 13.5 Points (-104 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Turner’s points are set at a low 13.5, and that is due to the foul trouble he was recently in. He scored a combined 16 points in the last two games, but has scored over 13.5 points in 10 playoff games this year. The Pacers have played in 16 total 2025 playoff games, and Turner has been able to score when needed.
Turner grew up in Bedford, Texas, which is in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area. Bedford is only 200 miles from Oklahoma City, and a three-hour drive. It is the closest he can get to his hometown without playing in Dallas (which, oddly enough, could have happened last year). And he likely will be buying tickets for his family. After two bad performances, the Law of Averages, and over a decade of waiting for this moment, should help Turner live up to the moment.
He is a great three-point scorer and has made at least one three in all but one game of the playoffs. Look for Turner to be an “X-factor” as the Thunder have issues dealing with centers that can score at different levels of the court. Turner will be coming out hot, looking to score and force Oklahoma City’s defensive frontcourt to be true to the rim, so the Pacers can set up their lethal mid-range and three-point scoring.
Put a unit on Turner to cover the low 13.5 point line tonight, and if you’re feeling bold, put it on a parlay with his rebounds. However, at near even odds, the stand-alone value is excellent. For those new to FanDuel, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s Promotional offer for FREE bonus bets.
Pacers vs Thunder Prediction: Aaron Nesmith To Make 5+ Threes in an NBA Finals Game (+270 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
DraftKings is offering a ‘No Sweat Bet’ for the finals, and the last NBA Best Bet today suggests taking advantage of the offer. Not only is there a no-sweat bet promotion, there are also series specials. Aaron Nesmith to Make 5+ Threes in an NBA Finals Game is the best bet to do it on as well.
To find this bet, click on the NBA tab, then ‘Series Markets’, then the sub-tab ‘Finals Special’. There are numerous bets available for this special market, including Turner to score 20+ Points in an NBA Game, but it is heavily juiced (-250). Pascal Siakam to outscore Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in an NBA Finals Game (+115), Tyrese Haliburton to score 30 points in an NBA Finals Game (+250), and many more.
At +270, Nesmith’s five or more threes are too good to pass up. The No Sweat refund caps out at $20, and twenty dollars would return a total of $74.00. A full unit is suggested for this to happen because Nesmith has accomplished this at least once in each of the past two series.
He did it in the unforgettable game one at Madison Square Garden against the New York Knicks, making 8 of 9 threes, including several in the fourth quarter comeback. He also did it in game two, a 120 - 119 Eastern Conference Semifinals road victory against the Cleveland Cavaliers. He has made 43 threes on 86 attempts this postseason, a remarkable 50%. Several of them came in clutch moments when pressure would cave weaker minds.
This bet gets stretched out at least four games, and could receive as many as seven opportunities to be successful. Nesmith will have several open attempts as the Thunder double Tyrese Haliburton and front Pascal Siakam. Put a unit on this wager with the no-sweat bet, and know that odds are on our side.
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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All NBA odds accurate at time of writing and NBA best bets today to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
Player News
According to multiple reports, the Raptors have no interest in trading Jakob Poeltl.
With Toronto being one of the teams mentioned as a potential destination for Suns forward Kevin Durant, Poeltl’s name came up as part of a possible trade package. However, Michael Grange reported Friday evening that the Raptors are not interested in including Poeltl in a trade for KD. NBA insider Marc Stein confirmed Grange’s report and added that the Raptors and Poeltl have “mutual interest” in working out a contract extension. While there is a feeling around the league that Toronto is open to trading down ahead of Wednesday’s draft, as they hold the ninth overall pick, there’s no desire to move on from their starting center.
NBA insider Marc Stein reports Dwight Powell will activate his player option for the 2025-26 season.
Powell had until Tuesday to decide whether or not he would activate his player option for the 2025-26 season. Per Stein’s report, the veteran center had made his decision a few days early, deciding to pick up the option worth $4 million. Powell appeared in 55 games this season but only averaged 10.0 minutes, his lowest mark since the 2014-15 season. He did not impact fantasy basketball this season, and that’s highly unlikely to change in 2025-26.
Josh Green underwent surgery to address instability in his left shoulder.
Green is expected to make a full recovery, though he’s out indefinitely and without a timetable to return. A first round pick in 2020 by the Mavericks, Green moved into the Hornets starting lineup late in the year as Charlotte dealt with multiple injured starters. While Green had some good performances, he needs to become more of a consistent scorer to be a fantasy asset in the future.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 21 points (7-of-15 FGs, 7-of-8 FTs), four rebounds, two assists and eight turnovers in a 108-91 loss to the Pacers in Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Thursday.
This certainly wasn’t the performance OKC was hoping to get out of the MVP with a chance to close out the series. Sure, he led the team in scoring, but the eight turnovers were abysmal. Turnovers haven’t been an issue for the Thunder this year; they averaged the fewest turnovers per game in the league during the regular season and have won the turnover matchup for most of this series. They’ll certainly need to clean things up to defend their homecourt and win a championship in Game 7 on Sunday.
Jalen Williams contributed 16 points (6-of-13 FGs), three rebounds and one assist in Game 6 against the Pacers on Thursday.
After a 40-point masterclass in Game 5, Williams cooled off in Game 6. It was a disappointing night after two consecutive strong performances. He also posted a team-worst -40 plus/minus, which isn’t solely on his shoulder, but it was indicative of how the game went during his 27 minutes. The 24-year-old will have to be better in Game 7 on Sunday.
Alex Caruso started the second half on Thursday and finished with three rebounds, two assists and one block in 22 minutes against the Pacers.
Caruso has had some big games in this series, but Thursday was not one of them. He was held scoreless and didn’t contribute much else in the box score. Of course, his defense is always valuable, but it wasn’t enough to slow down Indiana. What was noteworthy was that Caruso started the second half in place of Isaiah Hartenstein. The Thunder were down 22 points at halftime, so this could’ve been Mark Daigneault trying to create a spark. Caruso will likely return to a reserve role on Sunday for Game 7, but the situation is worth monitoring.