NBA Best Bets Today, 4/16: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Wednesday
Zach Edey delivered as promised, clearing both his rebounding and point prop, but it was not enough to overcome the Golden State Warriors. However, the Warriors did not get the help anticipated from Brandin Podziemski. He had just three points in 28 minutes of game play, going 1 of 5 from behind the three-point line… nowhere near over 2.5.
Both favorites won the match as the Orlando Magic destroyed the Atlanta Hawks at the Kia Center. It was over by halftime, and Dyson Daniels' defense was a non factor. He played 35 minutes yet didn’t record a single steal in one of Atlanta’s worst defensive performances this season.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 4/16
The second group of matches for the play-in take place today.
It is a do-or-die scenario for all four teams, and the first of our NBA best bets today looks at the Miami Heat versus Chicago Bulls.
Heat vs. Bulls Prediction: Chicago Bulls Win Margin 1 - 10 (+200 on FanDuel) *BET OF THE NIGHT
The Chicago Bulls are slight favorites in this match, -1.5 to -2.0, depending on the sportsbook. They host the Miami Heat at the United Center, and Chicago has had the Heat’s number this season. They have been victorious in all three of their meetings this year, and the prediction is for them to do it once again for the season sweep.
Both of these teams are no stranger to the play-in nor each other. They have had years of mediocracy from their front office and players, and this is the third year in a row they have played each other in the play-in. It’s almost a forgone conclusion at this point.
Miami has won the previous two play-in matches, but that will not be the case this time. Chicago is playing excellent basketball, winners of three in a row and seven of their last ten including a 119 - 111 victory over the Heat. Miami is without Jimmy Butler who is a difference maker in the playoffs. Meanwhile the Bulls are without Zach Lavine, who was prohibiting this team from reaching its potential.
That potential was the backcourt tandem of Coby White and Josh Giddey. Giddey has finally arrived in the NBA with a perfect fit in Chicago. He has also brought out the best in White, who can be more of a scorer than a distributor next to Giddey. The Bulls offense is led by those two, and that will be their advantage tonight.
Chicago averages 117.8 points per game, over seven more per game than the Heat. Giddey and White have unlocked a potent offense, and the Heat do not have the perimeter defense to slow it down for four quarters. Put a unit on the margin at FanDuel and get much better odds than taking a -2.0 spread. For those that have not downloaded the FanDuel app, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer.
Heat vs. Bulls Prediction: Josh Giddey Over 9.5 Assists (-105 on Bet365)
Josh Giddey has been one of Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets most targeted players since the All-Star break, and he is the focal point of the second of our NBA predictions today. He has emerged as the star he was drafted to be since leaving the Oklahoma City Thunder. Oddly enough it is Head Coach Billy Donovan, who was the former coach of the Thunder, that has lifted his play to these heights.
The Bulls have a realistic opportunity to go to the playoffs for the first time since 2022, and just the second time in eight years. If they are going to get there, Giddey will have to be the best version of himself. Scoring, rebounding, and giving out assists will be needed from the Aussie, and he has been rested for this occasion.
Giddey has played just one of Chicago’s last four games, and for the reason of being healthy for this play-in match. The game he did play was against the Miami Heat. In that match he recorded a triple double with 28 points, 16 rebounds, and 11 assists. Although it took forty minutes to achieve those numbers, Giddey will likely be in most of the game, as a loss would mean no more games this season.
Giddey has recorded 10 or more assists in five of his last seven matches. As his game has improved so has the focal point of opposing defenses. This should help Giddey achieve more assists with players left open due to him being double-teamed. Look for him to go over his assists line tonight, and for those new to Bet365 make sure to take advantage of the offer at the end of this article.
Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 4/16
The Western Conference match between ninth and tenth place teams is where the last of our NBA best bets of today comes from.
Mavericks vs. Kings Prediction: Sacramento Money Line (-192 on DraftKings)
The Sacramento Kings host the Dallas Mavericks in a lose-and-out scenario at the Golden 1 Center. The Kings are slight favorites with a -4.5 spread, and a low total of 213.0 points. Both of these teams have been inconsistent and banged up this year, and neither will have much of a chance to be victorious versus the Memphis Grizzlies nor Oklahoma City Thunder.
However the Kings have an opportunity to play one more game, and the expectation is for them to do that. They did win their most recent match, and have won five of their last ten, while Dallas has lost six of their last ten matches. Sacramento averages 1.5 more points per game, while allowing 0.1 point per game less. Both their offense and defense are better than the Mavericks, even when the Mavericks have Anthony Davis.
What this portion of NBA best bets today comes down to is the belief that Sacramento should win this match, but may not cover a -4.5 spread. Dallas has runs of being a great team, but they are horrific on the road. Dallas’ road record is 17 -25 this season, and they are not a team that travels well.
De’Aaron Fox will be difficult for the Mavericks to guard tonight, and he very well could have a thirty point game. Instead of taking a risky spread, a wager on the moneyline is suggested. It is still under -200 odds and taking the moneyline allows for a cashout while covering any unforeseen last game heroics from Dallas. Put a unit on the wager at DraftKings and make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer.
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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All NBA odds accurate at time of writing and NBA best bets today to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
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Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.