Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks October 4: Zac Gallen Leads Arizona Diamondbacks vs Brewers
We hit on Tyler Glasnow yesterday, but fell just one strikeout shy of Jesus Luzardo’s strikeout prop, and a 2-for-2 day. However, as we look at today's MLB playoff action, I find myself backing Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Nick Castellanos of the Philadelphia Phillies, taking on the Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins respectively. These two make up my best bets of the day, and my favorite MLB player props for Game 2 of the Wild Card round. Our MLB daily projections and MLB Batter vs Pitcher page will help uncover the best matchups for MLB player props, best bets, and MLB DFS lineups for today’s playoff action. Without further ado, let's dive into my top MLB player picks on Underdog Fantasy for Wednesday, October 4th.
MLB Wild Card Underdog Fantasy Picks October 4th
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks - HIGHER than 26.5 Fantasy Points
Brandon Pfaadt only lasted 2.2 innings yesterday, requiring Arizona to dive into its bullpen earlier than they would have wanted. Sure, some of those relievers can throw again today, but in a perfect world, they let Gallen work deeper into this game to give the bullpen a bit of a breather today, just in case there ends up being a Game 3. Gallen is an ace that deserves a bit of leeway, and I expect them to give him opportunities to work through anything that may come up. Regardless, I don’t love Gallen’s home/road splits today, but I do love the fact that he has dominated Milwaukee this season. He’s faced the Brewers twice, resulting in a 15:2 K/BB ratio and 0.64 ERA across 14 innings pitched. Oh, and he logged a quality start and win in both of those outings, easily pushing him past today’s line. He had a couple of rough starts down the stretch, but still posted a 3.45 ERA (2.97 FIP) and 26.8 percent strikeout rate over his final five starts. Six innings, six strikeouts and three or fewer earned runs and we are in the green!
Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies - HIGHER than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
Castellanos ripped two doubles last night, one off Jesus Luzardo and another off Steven Okert, both of whom just so happen to be left-handed! That’s important for two reasons, one of which is because Miami is sending another southpaw to the mound today in Braxton Garrett. Secondly, Castellanos hit lefties at a .324 clip during the regular season, including a massive .561 SLG, .930 OPS, and .237 ISO! Castellanos loves his home park, as he posted a .900 OPS and .249 ISO during the season there, so you can only imagine his numbers at home when facing a lefty. If you can’t imagine, I’ll tell you here. How does a .395 average, 1.163 OPS, and .337 ISO at home against a southpaw sound? Pretty good? Well, that’s what we’re getting today, not to mention a particular southpaw that has allowed a .448 SLG to right-handed hitters this season. Lastly, Garett has made two starts against Philadelphia this year, resulting in a 5.40 ERA, .286 BAA, and 1.40 WHIP.
Other Underdog MLB Picks to Consider:
- Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks - HIGHER than 0.5 Runs Scored
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Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.