Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks July 5: Matt Olson Powers Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland Guardians
After an entertaining Fourth of July Major League Baseball slate, let's run it back with another full schedule of games on Wednesday! We have plenty of ways to go for MLB player props and MLB Underdog picks as you enjoy tonight's games. Our top MLB picks on Underdog Fantasy feature Atlanta Braves 1B Matt Olson and Detroit Tigers DH Miguel Cabrera. Plus, we throw in a bonus prop pick for New York Mets pitcher Kodai Senga. Check out these free MLB player props and MLB daily picks on Underdog Fantasy for “Pick'Em” contests tonight. Don't forget to check out the latest MLB weather report and the confirmed MLB lineups when placing those MLB betting picks. Plus, the MLB daily projections and MLB Batter vs Pitcher page will help you find the best matchups for MLB player props and MLB DFS lineups. Let's dive into the top MLB player picks on Underdog Fantasy for Wednesday, July 5th.
MLB Underdog Fantasy Top Picks July 5
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves – OVER 1.5 Total Bases
If you can believe it, Matt Olson hasn’t homered in four straight games after smacking 10 in his previous 13 games. Maybe he goes deep tonight against Cal Quantrill? We’ll take it, but let’s at least grab the over on Olson’s total bases prop. The Atlanta Braves first baseman has a .333/.403/.917 slash line over the past 15 contests and should be feasting on this matchup vs Quantrill. The Cleveland Guardians’ right-hander is sporting a 6.18 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this season. He’s coughed up 6+ earned runs in three straight starts coming into tonight and now has to face a scary Braves offense. It doesn’t bode well for Quantrill, who’s allowed a .380 wOBA and .280 BA to lefty hitters so far. As for Olson, he’s hitting .264 with a 1.021 OPS vs right-handed pitching this year with 25 of his 28 homers coming off of righties. Before going 0-for-3 in back-to-back games entering tonight, Olson had recorded multiple total bases in 10 of the previous 13 contests. Count on the bounceback in a favorable matchup.
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers – OVER 0.5 Singles
Admittedly, Miguel Cabrera hasn’t exactly been the best source of MLB player props this season. The aging veteran is on the last legs of his MLB career and has been for a few years now. Even so, we’re backing arguably the best right-handed hitter of all time in a favorable matchup here despite his pedestrian 2023 numbers. The Oakland Athletics are set to start Ken Waldichuk, who is rocking a 6.78 ERA and 1.91 WHIP this season. The A’s left-hander has been coming out of the bullpen lately, but he’s expected to start and pitch the bulk of this one for Oakland. Waldichuk is allowing a .321 BA and .405 wOBA to right-handed hitters and has a 9.17 ERA with a .345 BAA on the road this year. As for Miggy, he’s on the better end of his splits tonight with a .333 BA vs lefties (.212 vs righties) and .263 BA at home (.228 on the road). Cabrera is also hitting .318 over the past seven games and .313 over the last 15 contests. As for singles, that’s his specialty at this point in his career. Of his 38 hits this year, 28 of those are singles. The Detroit Tigers’ designated hitter also has knocked a single in nine of the past 13 games. He’s -225 to get a hit on DraftKings Sportsbook and, chances are, that hit will be a single.
Kodai Senga, New York Mets – UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts
This is a play we went with yesterday, but Max Scherzer started instead for the New York Mets. So, let’s dust off the analysis and roll with the under on Kodai Senga’s strikeout prop tonight. On the one hand, Senga’s recent game logs point to the over on this K total. The Mets right-hander has notched 6+ strikeouts in four straight starts and eight of the last nine outings. He’s also gone over 5.5 K’s in 12 of 15 starts this season with a 28.5% strikeout rate. So why are we going under? First, the Arizona Diamondbacks have one of the lowest K rates vs right-handed pitching this season at 19.7% (3rd-lowest in MLB) – not to mention a strong .337 wOBA and high 9.1% walk rate vs righties (both top 10 marks). Over the past month, the D-backs boast a .354 wOBA, 19.9% K rate, and 9.7% walk rate against right-handers. They also have one of the league’s best strikeout rates at home this season at 20.3% (fourth-lowest). On the other side, Senga has had some issues on the road this year with a 4.58 ERA and .247 BAA away from New York compared to a 2.64 ERA and .175 BAA at home. Arizona should present a tough matchup on the road for Senga today.
MLB Best Bets
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Player News
Tommy Edman is dealing with right ankle discomfort.
It explains why Edman sat out Wednesday afternoon’s series finale against the Marlins. The 29-year-old will benefit from the extra time off to rest and recover. It sounds like there’s a chance he’s ready for Friday’s series opener against the Braves at Truist Park. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day for now.
Javier Báez hit his ninth career grand slam Wednesday in the Tigers’ 7-4 defeat of the Astros.
Incredibly enough, Báez is currently a 19-12 team’s best option at shortstop, third base and in center field. The 350-foot homer off AJ Blubaugh was his first of the year, but he’s batting .296/.337/.407 while mostly playing center right now.
Making his first start in 12 days, Jackson Jobe yielded three runs in four-plus innings Wednesday in a no-decision against the Astros.
Jobe was given seven runs to work with in the first three innings today and had a 7-1 lead going to the fifth, but he fell short of his third win. The bottom of the fifth opened with a walk, a single and a two-run double, at which point Jobe was pulled. Braden Hanifee took over and stranded the runner, preventing further damage to Jobe’s ERA. Jobe ended up allowing four hits, walking four and striking out four. He has a 3.38 ERA after five turns, but the 18/14 K/BB in 24 innings is thoroughly unimpressive. He’ll likely make his next start Tuesday or Wednesday in Coors Field, and he doesn’t seem like a great mixed-league option then.
Tommy Kahnle got four outs for his fifth save Wednesday against the Astros.
Just as it looked like Will Vest might run away with the closer’s role, Kahnle seems back in position now. He probably would have gotten the call Tuesday, when Vest was used in the sixth inning and gave up three runs in blowing a lead. Since he didn’t end up pitching in that loss, he was available to get four outs today. Kahnle should be effective enough to close, but there are workload concerns for a 35-year-old reliever who last put in a full season six years ago. We’d take Vest over him for the rest of the season, but if Kahnle was dropped in your league, he’s a decent enough option for now.
Riley Greene singled four times in four at-bats and scored twice versus the Astros on Wednesday.
When Greene gets hot, he can stay that way for a while. He went 7-for-12 with two homers in the series against Houston, pushing his average up to .261, and now he could feast on Angels pitching the next four days.
Colt Keith hit his first homer and walked before being lifted for a pinch-hitter Wednesday against the Astros.
Keith got a third straight start today after being on the bench four of the previous five games. His homer was hit 109.6 mph, which is a new regular-season high for him. He topped that at least a couple of times this spring, when it looked like he’d take a step forward as a sophomore, but he’s instead been very passive at the plate, and he came into the day with just two doubles and three RBI in 85 plate appearances. Maybe things will start to change now. At least he no longer looks like a candidate to be sent to Triple-A to make room for Manuel Margot’s return this weekend.