Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks For Today, 8/5: DFS Projections & Plays
Monday’s MLB picks over on Underdog Fantasy features Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz as he takes on the Miami Marlins and Cleveland Guardians starter Logan Allen as he draws a matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks in an entry with a 2.97x multiplier.
MLB Underdog Fantasy Picks Today: Monday, August 5th
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Logan Allen Underdog MLB Pick: More Than 2.5 Earned Runs
Logan Allen's performance this season has been less than stellar, with a 5.67 ERA through 18 starts before his demotion to AAA. His tendency to give up runs, especially against strong lineups, has been a consistent issue. The Arizona Diamondbacks rank third in wOBA and first in batting average against left-handed pitchers, showcasing their offensive strength.
Allen's history of allowing at least three earned runs in 11 of his 18 starts aligns with the Diamondbacks' ability to hit lefties hard. With Arizona's lineup likely to exploit Allen's vulnerabilities, betting on Allen to allow higher than 2.5 earned runs seems a wise choice. The data supports this pick, making it a sound strategy for today's bets.
Elly De La Cruz Underdog MLB Pick: More Than 0.5 Stolen Bases
Elly De La Cruz's speed has been a game-changer this season, leading the league with 57 stolen bases. His aggressive baserunning puts immense pressure on opposing defenses, and today's matchup against the Miami Marlins offers a favorable scenario. The Marlins' starting pitcher, Roddery Munoz, has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters, allowing a .670 slugging percentage and a .436 wOBA.
These numbers indicate that left-handed hitters reach base frequently and with power against Munoz. De La Cruz, who often bats left-handed, is poised to exploit Munoz's weaknesses. If he can get on base, his propensity to steal makes the over on 0.5 stolen bases a strong pick. Considering Munoz's track record, De La Cruz has a high probability of reaching base and adding to his stolen base total.
Total Multiplier - 2.97x
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Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.