Monday’s MLB picks over on Underdog Fantasy features Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz as he takes on the Miami Marlins and Cleveland Guardians starter Logan Allen as he draws a matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks in an entry with a 2.97x multiplier.

 

 

 

MLB Underdog Fantasy Picks Today: Monday, August 5th

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Logan Allen Underdog MLB Pick: More Than 2.5 Earned Runs

Logan Allen's performance this season has been less than stellar, with a 5.67 ERA through 18 starts before his demotion to AAA. His tendency to give up runs, especially against strong lineups, has been a consistent issue. The Arizona Diamondbacks rank third in wOBA and first in batting average against left-handed pitchers, showcasing their offensive strength. 

Allen's history of allowing at least three earned runs in 11 of his 18 starts aligns with the Diamondbacks' ability to hit lefties hard. With Arizona's lineup likely to exploit Allen's vulnerabilities, betting on Allen to allow higher than 2.5 earned runs seems a wise choice. The data supports this pick, making it a sound strategy for today's bets.

 

 

 

Elly De La Cruz Underdog MLB Pick: More Than 0.5 Stolen Bases

Elly De La Cruz's speed has been a game-changer this season, leading the league with 57 stolen bases. His aggressive baserunning puts immense pressure on opposing defenses, and today's matchup against the Miami Marlins offers a favorable scenario. The Marlins' starting pitcher, Roddery Munoz, has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters, allowing a .670 slugging percentage and a .436 wOBA. 

These numbers indicate that left-handed hitters reach base frequently and with power against Munoz. De La Cruz, who often bats left-handed, is poised to exploit Munoz's weaknesses. If he can get on base, his propensity to steal makes the over on 0.5 stolen bases a strong pick. Considering Munoz's track record, De La Cruz has a high probability of reaching base and adding to his stolen base total.

Total Multiplier - 2.97x

 

 

 

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