Tarik Skubal Underdog MLB Picks Today, 4/14: Baseball Projections + More
While we don’t have a full MLB slate on Monday, we still have tremendous opportunities to build those Underdog bankrolls with some Underdog MLB DFS picks for today.
You know it’s going to be an exciting day in baseball when you have the two best starting pitchers in the game – Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal – taking the mound in what should be some favorable matchups. In fact, tonight’s pitching is loaded with talented options, so we’ll have to see where the best value is for strikeouts, outs and earned runs.
Of course, there are also a few punching bags on the bump tonight as well, so be on the lookout for some strong hitting potential. Let’s dive in.
Underdog Fantasy Picks for Monday, April 14: MLB DFS Projections
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Tarik Skubal MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher Than 6.5 Strikeouts
After immediately turning to strikeout totals for Skenes and Skubal and noticing rain potential in Pittsburgh, I landed on Skubal who was dominant in his last start against the Yankees where he went six innings with six strikeouts. The Brewers have a very similar strikeout rate (23-percent) against left-handed pitching, but they’ve also been less patient at the plate and haven’t really worked the count as they should.
Not to mention, the guys you normally worry about in this Milwaukee lineup, like Jackson Chourio, William Contreras and Christian Yelich are also three of the biggest strikeout offenders. Vegas has seven or more strikeouts sitting at -175, so we’ll take a shorter multiplier to grab the win.
Framber Valdez MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher Than 5.5 Strikeouts
After watching Valdez fan 17 batters over his last two starts, you always have to question why his strikeout number is only at 5.5, but it doesn’t mean we run away from it. Yes, the Cardinals have played some decent ball this season, particularly at home, but they’re still posting a 23.4-percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.
And this lineup, outside of Nolan Arenado, has been victimized at a rapid rate. Vegas has Valdez’ outs prop pretty juiced up to go at least six innings tonight and if he can maintain at least a strikeout per inning (he has a 10.50 K/9 this season), he’ll get us to where we need to be.
Manny Machado MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Right-handed hitters are absolutely destroying Jameson Taillon right now, posting a .393/.414/.893 slash line with a .557 wOBA. He’s managed to post back-to-back quality starts, but he’s taken some significant lumps while doing so, allowing 11 earned runs (four home runs) on 18 hits and four walks (1.35 WHIP).
The Padres are going to give him some trouble tonight. Machado is seeing the ball very well right now with hits in all but two games this season and has gone over 1.5 HRR in five of his last six games.
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Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.