It’s PrizePicks Flex Friday which means we have some “risk free” MLB DFS projections for us to take advantage of when it comes to our picks for PrizePicks MLB DFS today. 

We’re starting with Taj Bradley’s earned runs projection in his start against the Padres and Triston Casas’ Hits+Runs+RBI projection for his matchup against Casey Mize and the Tigers for an entry with a 3.5x multiplier.

 

 

 

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Taj Bradley MLB PrizePicks Pick: More Than 2.5 Earned Runs

Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Taj Bradley has struggled mightily in recent starts, making the over on his 2.5 earned runs allowed line an appealing choice. Bradley has given up at least three earned runs in each of his last five outings. During this stretch, he has a dismal 7.96 ERA, while allowing a .600 slugging percentage and a .406 weighted on-base average (wOBA) to opposing hitters. These stats paint a picture of a pitcher who is not only having difficulty finding his rhythm but is also being hit hard by opposing lineups.

Bradley's recent struggles are compounded by the fact that he faces the San Diego Padres today, a team that has been one of the best offensive squads in baseball against right-handed pitching over the past month. In the last 30 days, the Padres rank third in weighted runs created plus (wRC+), fourth in wOBA, and third in batting average against right-handed pitchers. These metrics highlight their potency and consistency in generating offense, especially when facing righties like Bradley.

Given Bradley's recent form and the Padres' offensive surge, the over on 2.5 earned runs looks very promising. With the Padres' lineup featuring power hitters like Manny Machado and rookie phenom Jackson Merrill, Bradley is likely to face significant challenges. The Padres have demonstrated a knack for punishing mistakes, and if Bradley continues to struggle with his command and pitch location, he could easily surpass the 2.5 earned runs threshold.

 

 

 

Triston Casas MLB PrizePicks Pick: More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI

Triston Casas is a player to watch in today's PrizePicks lineup, particularly with the "More than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI" prop. Since returning from the injured list, Casas has been in outstanding form, hitting .313 with a .379 wOBA and an impressive .868 OPS. His numbers are even better when facing right-handed pitching, batting .353 with a .423 wOBA and a .980 OPS.

Today's matchup against Casey Mize presents a golden opportunity for Casas. Mize is making his first start since being activated from the injured list, which often means the pitcher may not be at full strength or command. Mize’s long layoff and lack of game rhythm could play right into Casas' hands, giving him the advantage in this confrontation.

Given Casas' hot streak and his strong numbers against right-handed pitchers, backing him to exceed 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI seems like a solid pick. The left-handed slugger has shown the ability to deliver multiple-hit games and drive in runs consistently, and with Mize potentially working his way back into form, this could be a favorable scenario for Casas to continue his impressive run at the plate.

Total Multiplier - 3.5x

 

 

 

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