MLB DFS Playbook March 31: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Published: Mar 31, 2023
The 2023 MLB season is finally here and with it comes the return of MLB DFS. Opening Day gave us some fireworks with every team playing, but today we have just a 5-game slate on tap. As you noticed yesterday, we have a much different look to the MLB DFS Playbook, but, in our opinion the 2023 version is going to help everyone take their game to the next level. With that said, make sure to continue to utilize all of our fantastic MLB DFS tools. However, our new Playbook will be a one-stop shop that includes everything from easy-to-read player write-ups and suggestions to MLB Weather Reports to lineup construction tips to our best value plays for DraftKings and FanDuel. You will be given core plays around which to build your lineups, DFS stacks to consider for GPP tournaments and key statistics to help you in your DFS research. Let’s dive in!
MLB DFS Playbook March 31
MLB Weather Updates
No concerns. The only two games with potential rain both have domes/retractable roofs.
DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
We are still very early on into the season, so there’s not as much data as there will be a week or two from now, but we can still make picks based off what we do know. Today’s slate shrinks to just a 5-game slate, so there will be less to comb through when creating your lineups. Pitching takes a big drop-off today, but there are still a few intriguing and exciting options. On the flip side of that, there are a few pitchers who we can target against with our selections on offense.
Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
Robbie Ray vs Cleveland Guardians
David Peterson vs Miami Marlins
Jesus Luzardo vs New York Mets
Cristian Javier vs Chicago White Sox
Dustin May vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Best Odds for a Win
Dustin May vs Arizona Diamondbacks (-190)
Nick Martinez vs Colorado Rockies (-185)
Robbie Ray vs Cleveland Guardians (-166)
Cristian Javier vs Chicago White Sox (-162)
Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups
Ray was a completely different pitcher when pitching at home in Seattle last season as he had a 3.00 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and averaged 19.9 DK points per game, compared to a 5.07 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 14.2 DK ppg on the road. On top of that, he always provides high strikeout upside, which makes him a good option for DFS lineups.
Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers
May had himself a nice Spring Training, firing 18.1 innings with 20 strikeouts and a 2.95 ERA. He has good stuff and, while the Dbacks lineup is improved, he has one of the better matchups on tap today. The Dodgers are the heaviest favorites on tonight’s slate, which gives May a likely boost at a potential W.
Peterson is coming off a strong season with a 3.88 ERA and 128 strikeouts across 106.2 innings of work. He carried that right into Spring Training, tossing 12 shutout innings with 13 Ks and opposing batters hit .028 against him. He gets a favorable matchup to kickoff the regular season as the Marlins are far from a high-powered offense. He is way too cheap and I expect heavy rostership today.
Recommended DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
4.74 – San Diego Padres vs Kyle Freeland
4.49 – Los Angeles Dodgers vs Merrill Kelly
4.22 – Seattle Mariners vs Hunter Gaddis
4.21 – Houston Astros vs Lance Lynn
4.16 – New York Mets vs Jesus Luzardo
Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups
Cal Raleigh, C, Seattle Mariners
Raleigh bashed 24 of his 27 home runs last year against righties and had a .509 SLG against them. Today, he faces a pitcher who has struggled against lefties and keeping the ball in the yard in Gaddis. He is probably the chalk play of the day at catcher. Mike Zunino provides more of the GPP option.
Nelson Cruz, 1B, San Diego Padres
Cruz should draw the start at DH today with the Padres facing a lefty and Cruz has mashed lefties throughout his career. He has slashed .295/.382/.557 against southpaws in his career, compared to .267/.329/.499 against righties. He will likely slot into the lineup at the 5 spot and should have ample RBI opportunities.
Tommy La Stella, 3B, Seattle Mariners
La Stella went 0-3 in his first official game with the Mariners, but I hope that doesn’t deter them from playing him in today’s lineup. La Stella has performed well against righties in his career and, as mentioned in Raleigh’s section, he faces a pitcher who has struggled against lefties and keeping the ball in the yard. All good things for La Stella’s potential upside today.
Jarred Kelenic, OF, Seattle Mariners
Kelenic got his season started in pretty good fashion last night; he went 1-3 with a stolen base, but he also smoked a ball to dead center that had an xBA of .800, but it was caught on the warning track. He provides plenty of pop and speed, which is how you rack up fantasy points. And, as mentioned in Raleigh’s section, he faces a pitcher who has struggled against lefties and keeping the ball in the yard (hello Kelenic!). I like a Mariners mid-to-bottom of the order stack today.
James Outman, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Outman started his season off with a bang, going 2-3 with a home run, walk, three runs scored, and two RBI. He provides a little pop/speed upside and he is currently the minimum price. Kelly is far from a dominant pitcher, so Outman is a great value play today, especially since Kelly’s ERA was 0.73 higher on the road last season than at home.
Player Pool
| $ Tier | SP | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High |  Robbie Ray  $9,900 |  Freddie Freeman $3,900 |  Jeff McNeil $2,900 |  Manny Machado $3,900 | Xander Bogaerts $3,200 |  Yordan Alvarez $4,100 | |
| Cristian Javier $10,100 | Pete Alonso $3,800 |  Kyle Tucker $4,000 | |||||
 Julio RodrÃguez $4,000 | |||||||
| Medium |  Jesús Luzardo $9,100 | Christian Walker $3,000 |  Kolten Wong $2,700 |  Eduardo Escobar $2,500 |  Ezequiel Tovar $2,600 |  Eloy Jiménez $3,600 | |
| Dustin May $9,300 | Kris Bryant $3,300 | ||||||
| Low | David Peterson $8,300 | Cal Raleigh $2,600 | Ha-Seong Kim $2,600 |  Tommy La Stella $2,000 | Miguel Rojas $2,200 |  Jarred Kelenic $2,600 | |
 David Hensley $2,000 | James Outman $2,200 | ||||||
 Corey Julks $2,000 |
Stacks
| Mariners | Tommy La Stella | Cal Raleigh | Jarred Kelenic |
 DraftKings | 2600 | 3200 | 2700 |
| Fanduel | 2000 | 2600 | 2600 |
| Astros | Corey Julks | David Hensley | Kyle Tucker | Yordan Alvarez |
| DraftKings | 2000 | 2100 | 5000 | 5700 |
| Fanduel | 2000 | 2000 | 4000 | 4100 |
| Dodgers | James Outman | Miguel Rojas | Freddie Freeman |
| DraftKings | 2000 | 3400 | 5800 |
| Fanduel | 2200 | 2200 | 3900 |
Player News
Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports that the Brewers will promote Caleb Durbin before Friday’s game against the Athletics.
The Brewers have already optioned INF Oliver Dunn to Triple-A to make room for Durbin. The 25-year-old has a .797 OPS with Nashville over his 54 at-bats, and he’s homered twice while stealing three bases in that timeframe. Durbin should get playing time, but it’s reasonable to question his fantasy impact potential.
Tyler O’Neill (neck) is not in the starting lineup for Thursday’s game against the Guardians.
O’Neill was scratched from Wednesday’s lineup with neck discomfort, and the 29-year-old will unsurprisingly miss at least one more game with the issue. Ryan O’Hearn will be the right fielder, and Jordan Westburg will be the designated hitter in O’Neill’s absence.
Blue Jays optioned INF/OF Davis Schneider to Triple-A Buffalo.
Schneider has just one hit in his 15 at-bats over 10 games, although he has gotten on base at a decent .333 clip thanks to five walks and a hit-by-pitch. The 26-year-old will almost assuredly be back for Toronto at some point, but for now the Blue Jays will look to a different option off the bench. That player will be announced before Friday’s game against the Mariners.
Jordan Westburg is hitting fifth as the designated hitter against the Guardians on Thursday.
Westburg got Wednesday off as the Orioles continue to give him maintenance to recover from his upper-body injury, and they won’t ask him to field the baseball for Thursday’s game. Ryan O’Hearn will get Thursday off with Westburg handling DH duties.
Wilmer Flores is not in the lineup for Thursday’s bout versus the Phillies.
Flores will get a day off even with left-hander Cristopher Sánchez on the bump for Philadelphia. Willy Adames is the designated hitter for the contest, and Christian Koss will be the shortstop.
Rays activated OF Richie Palacios off the 10-day injured list.
Palacios has missed the first three weeks of the season with a right finger fracture. The 27-year-old is someone who should see playing time against left-handed pitching, but won’t see enough run — or be good enough with that time — to be an option in fantasy leagues. Coco Montes was sent to Triple-A to make room.