The Brewers were a surprise performer last season, falling just short of reaching the post-season dance as the 2017 campaign wound down in September. The team featured a strong pitching staff, finishing 9th overall in team ERA and 11th in opponents’ batting average during the course of the regular season. Of course, the loss of their ace, Jimmy Nelson, until potentially mid-season hurts and the additions of Jhoulys Chacin and Yovani Gallardo are not the sort of free agent signings to wow anybody. It is still possible the Brewer front office will bring in a front-line free agent hurler, in the form of perhaps Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn (it seems unlikely that small-market Milwaukee could afford Jake Arrieta), and that would shake up the projected rotation dramatically. At the present time, realizing it is still early in spring training, however, the pitchers profiled below have the best chance of starting the year in the Brewer rotation.
For the purpose of these articles, the 2017 stat lines (MLB only) are: IP, W-L, K, ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 and the 2018 MLB projections are: IP, W, K, ERA, WHIP. The Average Draft Positions (ADP) are the current Mock Draft Army and NFBC rankings with highest and lowest picks in parenthesis.
Projected Rotation
Chase Anderson RHP
2017 final stats (MLB only): 141.1 IP, 12-4, 133 K, 2.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.47 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9
2018 projected stats: 165 IP, 9 W, 150 K, 3.68 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
2018 ADP: 166.43 (116/229), 171.55 (88/236)
Anderson suffered through an oblique injury, and that kept his inning count down last season. He was an extremely effective pitcher through the final four months of 2017, though, as he utilized all four of his pitches to keep hitters guessing: a 93 MPH fastball that he relied upon just over 50% of the time, a cutter, a change and a ground-ball inducing curve. The difference in velocity between the fastball and change is right around the magical 10 MPH that frequently baffles opposing hitters, so he has that going for him. All is not shiny and bright, however, as he was somewhat lucky last season with an elevated 80% strand rate and an unsustainable .272 BABIP, but even with some negative regression, he still profiles out as a worth-while SP2 in larger leagues, and certainly as a useful SP3.
Zach Davies RHP
2017 final stats (MLB only): 191.1 IP, 17-9, 124 K, 3.90 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 5.83 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9
2018 projected stats: 182 IP, 13 W, 120 K, 3.94 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
2018 ADP: 232.33 (196/294), 295.78 (104/413)
Davies stepped up and neared 200 IP in 2017 for the first time in his career. The issue with the 25-year old righty for fantasy have to do with a decided middling strikeout rate, which settled in at a less than stellar rate last season after increasing the prior season (7.44 over 163.1 innings in 2016). He does induce a good number of grounders (2.07 GB/FB ratio in 2017), which makes his success highly dependent on having a strong defense behind him. He can be used as a streaming option, although more so when he is on the road than pitching from the bump in Miller Park, if his 2017 trends continue, and given a 3.10/4.62 career home/road ERA split, that seems likely. Given his lack of strikeout potential, he is more of an NL-only option, although does have some value as an extremely late-round mixed-league draft choice.
Jhoulys Chacin RHP
2017 final stats (MLB only): 180.1 IP,13-10, 153 K, 3.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.64 K/9, 3.59 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9
2018 projected stats: 170 IP, 10 W, 140 K, 4.15 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
2018 ADP: 382.48 (264/416), 356.87 (209/513)
Chacin comes to the Brewers as a free-agent, after having pitched acceptably in San Diego in 2016. Moving from one of the best pitchers’ parks in all of baseball to a park that ranks in the top third in both runs scored and homers hit in 2017 will likely have a negative impact on his overall effectiveness in the coming campaign. He is essentially a two-pitch hurler, with a fastball that tops out just over 91 MPH and a slider that has the desired 10 MPH differential in velocity. This season, however, he has indicated that he is looking to feature his changeup more, to try to overcome his difficulties with left-handed hitters, against whom he has struggled over the past several seasons. He can give you innings, and is a decent source of wins and/or quality starts (QS), depending on your league settings. Do not expect much help in the ratio categories, though, and the strikeout numbers will just be average.
Brent Suter LHP
2017 final stats (MLB only): 81.2 IP, 3-2, 64 K, 3.42 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.05 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 0.88 HR/9
2018 projected stats: 145 IP, 9 W, 115 K, 4.10 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
2018 ADP: undrafted, 547.93 (360/690)
Suter looks like the lone southpaw in the Milwaukee rotation, assuming that the team does not decide to relegate his presence to the bullpen, but early on this spring, it appears that manager Craig Counsell is content with using Boone Logan and Josh Hader as the left-handed relief options. The soft-tossing Suter (85.8 MPH fastball) does not have a rotation spot locked down yet, but was effective in limited action last season. His two other offerings, a tricky slider and a groundball inducing change were both effective in fooling batters last year, but again, the sample size was limited to just 14 starts at the major league level. He will likely be available on the wire or as a free agent after your draft, and is worth keeping on your watch list if his 2017 success was not a fluke.
Brandon Woodruff RHP
2017 final stats (MLB only): 43.0 IP, 2-3, 32 K, 4.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.70 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9
2018 projected stats: 105 IP, 7 W, 71 K, 4.35 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
2018 ADP: 411.38 (385/458), 378.59 (256/523)
Woodruff, the Brewers’ minor league pitcher of the year in 2016, split time between Triple-A (in the PCL, where he was roughed up, as are many pitchers) and an eight start stint with the big league club in 2017. He was effective early on with the Brewers, then stumbled in his last four outings. He features a mid-90s fastball, with a couple of secondary offerings in the form of a strikeout-inducing slider and a changeup that when it is moving, fools opposing batters, but can also flatten out as a hittable mid-80s offering. Also, his splits were wildly in his favor when facing right-handed hitters, and terrible against lefties, but then again, the sample size was extraordinarily limited during his brief audition with the big-league club. The youngster has promise but needs to work on his off-speed pitches to become a reliable starting pitcher. If he makes the rotation out of spring training, he is an intriguing late round option in larger leagues.
Yovani Gallardo RHP
2017 final stats (MLB only): 130.2 IP, 5-10, 94 K, 5.72 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 6.47 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, 1.65 HR/9
2018 projected stats: 140 IP, 6 W, 99 K, 5.10 ERA, 1.55 WHIP
2018 ADP: undrafted, 667.42 (438/748)
You have to expect that Gallardo was brought on board to join the rotation in the event Woodruff struggles this spring. Even so, he is basically unworthy of consideration in your drafts. He posted similar numbers in the past two seasons, while pitching in a hitters’ park in Baltimore in 2016, and then again after moving to a pitchers’ park in Seattle last season. Nothing he has done on the mound recently suggests that he will improve your fantasy efforts, and even if he makes the rotation (a definite longshot), he would only be of interest in an extremely deep NL-only league.
Potential Starting Rotation Replacements/Additions
Jimmy Nelson RHP
2017 final stats (MLB only): 175.1 IP,12-6 , 199 K, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.21 K/9, 2.46 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9
2018 projected stats: 105 IP, 7 W, 115 K, 3.78 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
2018 ADP: 238.21 (151/388), 308.08 (67/440)
The timing of Nelson’s return from shoulder surgery is still up in the air, although it does not look as though he will be back before June at the earliest. He has begun to throw off level ground but will not begin any activity on a mound until after Opening Day. He is going at a significant discount in drafts, and if you have the room on your bench or DL to hold him, he would be worth the investment at the draft. He altered his arm slot last season, leading to his break out as a potential ace, or at worst, a top-level SP2.
Junior Guerra RHP
2017 final stats (MLB only): 70.1 IP,1-4, 67 K, 5.12 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 8.57 K/9, 5.50 BB/9, 2.30 HR/9
2018 projected stats: 99 IP, 5 W, 90 K, 5.05 ERA, 1.62 WHIP
2018 ADP: undrafted, 656.92 (394/748)
Guerra had a breakout rookie season as a 31-year old in 2016, but struggled to repeat his good fortune last season, and was relegated to the bullpen following an injury he suffered while batting. His fastball velocity fell off a bit, and his control went south as well. He has looked good so far this spring, allowing just one earned run allowed in six innings and racking up five Ks with just a single free pass. Keep an eye on his progress between now and when the season opens, as he could be a sneaky late-round pick up if he snags one of the rotation slots available.
The Brewers have one starting pitcher that is generating interest in the early parts of drafts in Chase Anderson, but aside from him, you do not want to be gambling on any of the potential rotation pieces to lead you to a fantasy championship. It is entirely possible that one of the Milwaukee SPs will bust loose, but banking on that is not a high-percentage move. You can certainly keep these pitchers in mind when looking for injury replacements, as the Brewers figure to be a competitive club, but there are plenty of other (better?) options available to build your fantasy pitching staffs around.
Questions about starting pitching are always welcome if addressed to ia@fantasyalarm.com.