MLB Streaks & Trends: For Whom Josh Bell Tolls

It’s Saturday, so it’s time to grab your coffee, tea, or whatever your morning/early afternoon beverage of choice is and dive into some notable streaks and trends across Major League Baseball. There’s quite a few interesting names in various parts of this article that you might not expect. Let’s start with the hot hitters, and with the MLB Trade Deadline quickly approaching, the Washington Nationals have to be ecstatic with Josh Bell’s recent production, as he’s a likely trade candidate at the deadline. Chicago’s Nico Hoerner and Oakland’s Sheldon Neuse are both seeing the baseball well of late, as their fantasy relevancy is trending back up. On the other hand, MVP candidate Aaron Judge is mired in a slump and Oneil Cruz’s strikeout woes have plagued him of late, not to mention some ugly numbers against southpaws. Despite hitting for the cycle a handful of games ago, Baltimore’s Austin Hays has really struggled for some time now, even if there has been some decent power. Be sure to check out our July rankings, fantasy baseball waiver wire article and stock watch videos for even more content to help boost your fantasy baseball teams. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball.

MLB Stat Leaders

MLB Hit Streaks

Who’s Hot

The Nationals and Josh Bell probably couldn’t be happier that he’s going on a big run now, as he’s a likely candidate to be dealt at the trade deadline. This recent stretch should certainly help Washington get the most bang for its buck, as Bell is hitting a cool .577 with an .885 slugging percentage over his last seven games. Sure, he hasn’t hit a home run in that stretch, but he’s rocking a nine-game hit streak in which he has five multi-hit efforts.

It should come as no surprise that of late, his average exit velocity is up a good bit, and that his xBA for the month of June is an excellent .315.

For the year, Nico Hoerner is hitting .308 with four home runs and six stolen bases, but he’s taking it to another level recently, hitting .520 with a .586 OBP over his last seven games. If you extend it out to his last 15 games, he’s hitting .404 with more walks (6) than strikeouts (5). He has just one home run in his last 30 games, but he does have three stolen bases, and the increased opportunities on base should lead to more fruitful fantasy production. In deeper leagues, he’s likely already owned, but even in shallower leagues, his recent production warrants a roster spot in roto formats, as he’s a massive boost to your team’s batting average at the moment. The steals will continue to come, as he has a 91st percentile sprint speed and is 6-for-7 on stolen base attempts for the year in just 62 games.

Sheldon Neuse was a guy I was banging the drum for earlier in the year, as he was hitting for a good average and was piling up stolen bases. After hitting .328 with three stolen bases in April, Neuse hit just .170 in May with 30 strikeouts in 100 at-bats. However, June has fared better for Neuse, and he’s hitting .385 with a .423 slugging percentage over his last seven games, and he has just five strikeouts. You’ll see in the rolling chart below that the overall trendlines for his swinging strike rate and O-Swing rate are heading in the right direction.

Who’s Not

Even potential MVP candidates are prone to slumps, and Aaron Judge is mired in one at the moment. He has just three hits in his last 27 at-bats with a 33 percent strikeout rate in that span. However, the good news for fantasy baseball managers is that this slump shouldn’t hang around for that long.

His hard contact has been trending up of late, yet his BABIP and wOBA have tanked. His swinging strike rate is up, which has been a key player in the elevated strikeout rate of late, but when things level back out for Judge, given his hard contact rate, he’ll be just fine in no time. Don’t fret over this slump.

Like Judge, Austin Hays is struggling of late, going 5-for-27 over the last week with a measly .200 OBP during this stretch. What’s really interesting with Hays is that he was struggling, erupted almost out of nowhere to hit for the cycle, and then returned to what he was doing beforehand. In the week prior to hitting for the cycle, he was slashing .143/.200/.393 with .256 wOBA, and 63 wRC+. Then, he hit for the cycle, and since the cycle he’s put forth a slash line of 182/.206/.364 with .245 wOBA and 55 wRC+. Unlike Judge, I’d be a bit more concerned about Hays from a fantasy perspective, as the month of June has not been kind to Hays, as he’s posted his highest strikeout rate of the year in June, not to mention a putrid 2.8 percent walk rate, and while he’s hitting a ton more fly balls, if he doesn’t harness the strikeouts, a slight bump in power will be a trade off for a diminished batting average.

Growing pains. That’s what it will be with Oneil Cruz. He’s hitting just .217 on the year, but he is so darn toolsy that he can still pop or wow anyone on even the most routine of plays. What’s concerning with Cruz is that the strikeouts have picked up of late, and while we knew strikeouts were going to be a part of his game, the 45 percent strikeout rate over the last five games is less than ideal. Beyond that, his 58.8 percent strikeout rate against southpaws is incredibly concerning, and we’ve already seen him slide in the lineup when a southpaw is starting for the other team His 89th percentile max exit velocity and 97th percentile sprint speed are exciting, and while he won’t eliminate the strikeouts altogether, it would be nice for him to go on a little run.
 

Statistical Credits:

• baseballsavant.mlb.com
• fangraphs.com
• baseballmusings.com
   

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