With the Dodgers and Padres kicking off regular season MLB action in the middle of this week, it’s only fitting that I dish out my fantasy baseball bold predictions for behind the dish. If you still have some drafting to do, feel free to keep these bold predictions in mind as you are looking to select your catchers for the year! 

 

 

 

Sure, some of these predictions below aren’t the boldest or spiciest, but these are all things I believe to be true for this season. 

Without further ado, here are my fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2024 season, highlighting some fantasy baseball catcher breakouts, bounce backs, and more!

Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions: 2024 Catchers

Francisco Alvarez Leads All Catchers In Home Runs

I hinted at this in the last catcher spotlight article, and I’m doubling down here. Francisco Alvarez leads all catchers in home runs this season. He hit 25 home runs in just 123 games last season, and his elite raw power will keep him in the New York lineup more often than not. 

Alvarez had an insane run from May through July where he slugged 19 home runs in just 235 plate appearances. Yes, he is prone to streaks, but his gargantuan power is too much to ignore. Everyone likes Cal Raleigh’s power from behind the dish, but last year, in terms of the AB/HR metric, Alarez (15.28) bested Raleigh (17.1). 

If you guaranteed me 650 ABs from Alvarez – which I know won’t happen, but if you could – he has the power to hit 40 home runs in a season. He’ll be closer to 35 than 25 this season with his home run total, and will pace the position.

Luis Campusano Is J.T. Realmuto (But With Less Speed) In 2024

This one isn’t that bold of a take, but when looking at projections, these two could be very similar, sans Realmuto’s double-digit stolen bases. 

Campusano showed last year that he will make a ton of contact in the zone, and he should hit for a solid average from the backstop position. The Padres need his bat in the lineup, so he should get a good amount of playing time, and is 15 home runs with a .270 average all that much to ask for, considering he hit seven home runs with a .319 average in 49 games last season?

Campusano is a poor man’s Realmuto this season, and outside of Realmuto’s stolen base numbers, Campusano’s numbers will be similar to those of Realmuto. I’ll leave you with this, courtesy of Steamer projections:

 RRBIHRSBAVG/OBP/SLG
Realmuto63681814.252/.319/.435
Campusano5258162.265/.323/.436

Henry Davis Has Catcher Eligibility By End Of April AND Hits 25+ Home Runs In 2024

Yasmani Grandal has been limited in spring, and there’s a very real chance that he starts the year on the injured list. That opens the door for Davis to be the primary catcher until his return, allowing him to rack up the necessary starts to gain catcher eligibility. 

Once Davis can be deployed in your team’s catcher spot compared to the outfield, his value jumps immensely. He can run a little bit, and he has big time power, which we’ve already seen on display this spring (4 HR, 1.070 OPS). In just 225 ABs last season, he hit seven home runs with a .351 SLG and 41.4 percent hard hit rate.

Davis should be able to get a bunch of starts behind the dish before he starts splitting with Grandal, but by season’s end, Davis will have swatted at least 25 home runs!

Alejandro Kirk Hits .285+ This Season

Kirk disappointed last year by hitting just .250 across 123 games, but back in 2022 at just 23 years young, he hit .285 in 139 games for the Blue Jays. After a slower start to the season, Kirk hit .269 over his final 171 ABs in 2023, and he also struck out less than 10 percent of the time during that stretch. 

Kirk makes a ton of contact, has great feel for the strike zone, and he’ll have plenty of time to establish his presence in the lineup with Danny Jansen starting the year on the injured list. At time of writing, Kirk has a .379 average and 1.172 OPS through 29 spring at-bats, setting him nicely for a bounce back 2024 campaign.