Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: Week 5

For those who play in Head-to-Head Leagues, having a handle on which starting pitchers are scheduled to pitch in two game in an upcoming week is invaluable. Of course, if you are an owner in a roto league, and your starting pitching is not looking as good as it did when you drafted your team, or if injuries, demotions to the minors or general poor performance are hurting your placement in the standings, you may want to consider the streaming technique to pep up the rotation. Or you just like to shuffle the deck. Whatever your impetus, if you want to get an idea of who could benefit your squad in the next scoring period, you have arrived at the correct and proper place. On a weekly basis, this series of article will set forth those starting pitchers that as of Saturday are on deck to take the hill twice.

The format is to put the group of two-start pitchers into three tiers. The first tier is entitled “Start ‘em If You Own ‘em” and consists of those pitchers that I suggest you wind up and let go, no matter where they are pitching or what opponent they face. Most, if not all, of these SPs will be owned in your league, but if you own one or two, smile and walk happy.

The second tier is called “Maybe Yes, Maybe No,” and is generally the largest tier. I tend to break it down into sub-tiers for convenience in both my ability to provide analysis of the individuals that make up the tier, and to assist my readers in deciding how much risk they are willing to tolerate on a weekly basis. Depending on how many two-start options there are in a given week, the sub-tiers number either two, or at most, three.

The final tier I call “Not On My Roster” which I believe is self-explanatory. If you are absolutely desperate for a two-start option, due to inning minimums in your league settings, or are just a glutton for punishment, then you can consider rostering one or more of these guys. I cannot in good faith recommend that you do so, but then again, it is your team and you are free to manage it as you see fit (a philosophy I would encourage more leagues to adopt instead of micromanaging every teams moves during the season *steps down off soapbox*).

Please realize that I am working off the most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher I have listed as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, I apologize but I only provide analysis, I do not set the lineups or rotations.

Without further ado, here are this week’s two start pitchers:

I realize Keuchel has looked quite mortal this season, but then again, the Astros are not exactly playing up to the standards they set for themselves last season. He is still the ace of the staff and I will not demote him unless the wheels totally come off the bus. For that matter, Harvey is a concern as well, but we know the skills are there. Quintana, on the other hand, is finally looking strong and with the resurgence of the White Sox early on, he is finally getting his due this season. He was always a favorite of mine, but the lack of victories hurt his fantasy value. As I say every week here, start these guys and do not look back. These eight pitchers give you the best chance to succeed this upcoming scoring period, and while there are no sure things in baseball, these SPs are your best shot at pair of wins.

There are not enough pitchers in the middle tier to break into three sub-tiers, so the first tier consists of those pitchers I feel most comfortable in recommending. The second sub-tier is filled with pitchers that carry risk even with two starts in the week. The top sub-tier opens with Roark and runs down to Moore. Roark has been starter I have added and dropped over the past two seasons, mostly based on matchup. He is working on a streak of 15 scoreless innings going into Week 5, and while he is going to be pitching on the road for both his starts this scoring period, he is the top SP in this tier for my money. I have always liked to target Oakland pitchers and Hill simply continues that trend for me. Not a big candidate for drafters, mostly due to poor performance in spring training, he is pitching well in April. In his five starts, he has racked up 37 Ks and has a couple of beatable opponents this week.

Verlander 's stat line was hurt by one bad start against PIttsburgh. He is no longer a Cy Young candidate, but he is also pitching much more effectively than he has for a couple of seasons. His offense can bail him out if tosses a quality start and while I do not like his two matchups this week, I also believe he has the ability to be a quality option on the mound for both starts. Hendricks is overshadowed in Chicago by his teammate Arrieta, but aside from not pitching deep into games the past two starts, he has been steady and stable as a SP. The knuckleball is working well for Wright this season, and he is coming off two consecutive wins. His peripherals are superb, but could of course blow up if his command of the butterfly pitch goes south. Right now, however, he is pitching like an ace.  

Griffin is a pitcher that I have been picking up off the wire the past week or so. He is not a great strikeout option, as he pitches more to contact that missing opponent bats. He is 3-0 on the season, and has a sub-3 ERA. He does have two tough matchups on the road, but has been pitching well enough to take a chance on this week. Shields is not the ace he once was, but he also is not chopped liver, either. He is 0-4 on the season, but that can mostly be attributed to a lack of offensive support. That and a lack of control (13 walks over 33 innings and only 21 Ks). I do like him pitching at home this week in his two starts this scoring period. Karns is another pitcher that needs to harness his control to be more effective, as a 2:1 K/BB ratio is not outstanding. He has been up and down this season, either allowing a bunch of runs or virtually none at all. His matchups are not horrible, and he is a decent option in deeper leagues.

Nola pitches for a rebuilding team, and that limits his value to an extent. He is a quality SP, as he showed last season in his rookie campaign. He strikes out better than a batter per innings (37 Ks in 33 innings in 2016), and has good peripherals. In shallower leagues, he could still be on the waiver wire. Cashner, like his teammate Shields, is hurt by the lack of offense supporting him, and the team seems more prone to making errors than playing good defense behind him. The Giants chased him in the third inning in his last start, but with two home games on the state in Week 5, I like him as a lower end SP option. Tomlin will step into a larger role in the Cleveland rotation with Carlos Carrasco on the DL. He does not throw hard, but he has good control and command and that keeps his peripherals in line. He has two home starts this week, and his splits show that he pitches more effectively in Cleveland than on the road.

Samardzija 's move to San Francisco led many to hope for him to rediscover his mojo, and it seems to have worked as expected. He is now 3-1 on the season, and while more Ks would be nice, it is hard to argue with his success so far. Moore winds up the top sub-tier, and could easily have slipped down into the second sub-tier, even into the middle of that group. He is striking out plenty of opponents and his ERA and WHIP are useful, but his teams weak offense hurts his ability to provide overall value. He needs to be sharp to have a chance to win, and while his two opposing SPs this week are not scary (Scott Kazmir and Jered Weaver), his team's inability to score is a problem.

The second and bottom sub-tier begins with Tillman and winds up with McHugh. Tillman is coming off a poor 2015, where he struggled mightily. His two wins this season are against the weak-hitting Rays, but unfortunately he does not have that opportunity this week. He does pitch at home for both his starts, though, and he looks poised for a bounce back this season. Nelson is nothing more than a average strikeout pitcher, and his control has disappeared this season. He has a couple of less than tough matchups this scoring period, so if you are in need of a mediocre SP option, he is worth considering. Estrada is suffering mainly due to a lack of offensive support (four runs over his last three starts). HIs team is due to turn that around at some point, and his peripherals and strikeout totals point to better results going forward. Some pitchers are snake bit, however, and until the Jays start hitting for him, he is best used sparingly. Facing Clayton Kershaw, even at home, is not a good way to end the scoring period, however.

The main problem with using Colon is the lack of victories. He is providing decent K numbers, and owns nice peripheral stats, too, so he is a useful back of the rotation starter for fantasy owners, but again, the lack of victories hurts his value. Dickey has a bloated 6.75 ERA and 1.65 WHIP this season, but that has been his trend to open the season the past few years. He generally rights the ship and posts good numbers in the second half of the season, so patience is required with him. His home/road splits indicate that he is a better pitcher in Toronto, and he has two home games this scoring period, so while I am not enamored with him, this is a good week to take a chance on him. Iwakuma has struggled early on this season, but he does have a nice 25:9 K/BB ratio over his five starts. He has always been a steady if unexciting SP, and I would expect him to turn things around soon enough. If you want to wait until that happens, though, I could understand and support that decision. Wainwright seemed like a fine pickup in drafts, but the early results have been disappointing, with him posting a 7.15 ERA over his five starts and only 14 Ks in those 27.2 innings. As with Iwakuma, I might wait until the light comes on for him before I would insert him in my starting lineup.

Corbin had a couple of nice appearances in mid-April, but his other three starts are nothing to be excited about. He has been affected by the long ball this season, but getting two starts away from Arizona this week should help him out. His lack of control is yet another issue, and that is why he is ranked so low this week. Berrios has the pedigree, and will undoubtedly become a top-notch SP, but he has a learning curve to overcome as a 22 year-old. Not that you should drop him based on one outing, and I congratulate those of you who snagged him in dynasty or keeper leagues, but keep your expectations in check. As with any young SP, there will be struggles but also flashes of brilliance. Patience will be rewarded over time, I suspect. Nicolino is not going to miss a ton of bats, and that limits his fantasy value considerably. That and playing for the Marlins (especially with Dee Gordon now be suspended for 80 games) are negatives for his employment as a fantasy SP.

McHugh is our final desperation starter, and despite having one good outing against the Royals early in April, the rest of his season has been a huge disappointment. He sports a 6.65 ERA and 1.89 WHIP, numbers that you want to avoid adding to your stat totals. He is coming off two good seasons in 2014 and 2015, however, so there is hope he will adjust and become a useful SP once again. Just avoid him for now, but also realize that he may be buy-low opportunity if he can fix his issues.

These nine starting pitchers are not pitchers I can reasonably tell you to roster, even with two starts this week. Truth be told, I like Gray. I just do not like him as a pitcher in Colorado, a place that hurts a pitcher's value, especially a starter. Sure, he gets two road starts this week, and if you wanted to take a chance on him, this is the week to do so. Would I do it? Nope. You may want to disagree with the assignment of these guys to the bottom tier, but that, in my opinion, is simply incorrect. If all these guys rack up two wins this scoring period, then maybe it is time to reassess my analytic techniques, but the system has been effective for a few years now.

I enjoy responding to comments, or if you do not want to put your question out for public consumption, feel free to write me at ia@fantasyalarm.com for a more personal response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better my response will be suited to your individual situation. I am open to questions about issues apart from starting pitching, too, as I play fantasy sports as well as serve as an analyst. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.