Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: Week 19

Week 19 arrives with a nice collection of useful middle-tier starting pitchers, and a whole lot of pitchers to avoid in the bottom tier. The top tier is populated by just eight starters, but those are excellent options to rely upon this scoring period. There are a couple of pitchers that dropped to the bottom tier that could be useful for a spot start, but I did not feel comfortable about even suggesting that they be used in both their scheduled appearances this week, and there is a bit more discussion about that situation down below. Skip ahead if you must, but the meat of this article is the discussion of the middle-tier dwellers, as it is most weeks, so make certain to scroll back up after satisfying your curiosity about which SPs have a bit more value than the rest of those in the last tier.

Please realize that I am working off the most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher I have listed as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, I apologize but I only provide analysis, I do not set the lineups or rotations.

Without further ado, here are this week’s two-start pitchers:

Only eight starting pitchers make this tier in Week 19. This may be the last time that Hammel is featured in the top group, as he tends to run out of gas as the season winds down. He is one of my favorites, as long-time readers know, and I am hoping his success the past couple of seasons can continue through 2016, however, and will keep rolling him out there until he disappoints. Fulmer is due to have some rookie issues, but it is impossible to not start him now. While I have always thought Porcello had potential, he has truly surprised me this season. His last two games, two complete games at that, indicate that he is having a career season and it would be a good idea to jump aboard the bandwagon.

With only 10 pitchers occupying the middle tier this week, it seems easiest to just divide them into two equal sets. The top five begin with a pair of Milwaukee hurlers, although if I were to rank the top three, I would stick Odorizzi in between the two Brewer SPs. I like the matchups for Davies and Guerra, both getting to face Atlanta and then Cincy at home, as both are in the bottom third of NL teams in terms of road offense (Atlanta 15^th, Cincinnati 12^th). Guerra is the better strikeout option, although neither pitcher is anything more than average at inducing whiffs. Davies is exhibiting excellent control this season, with a 2.35 BB/9 rate over his 111 innings pitched. Speaking of Odorizzi, he would be ranked higher if he was not on the road for his two starts in Week 19. He has not allowed a run, let alone an earned run, in his last three starts, and is working on four game QS streak. He has been striking out hitters at an 8.29 K/9 rate this season, although his home run tendencies could hurt him this week in Toronto and New York, and will likely end his scoreless streak.

Anderson has been superb at Coors, posting a 3.32 ERA and 41:10 K/BB ratio in his seven home starts in 2016. He does have a 1.38 WHIP at Coors, but I have no hesitation about starting him against the visiting Rangers due to the park factor, and his 3.06 ERA and 0.96 WHIP on the road make his second start against the Phillies a good option as well. He is just an average K option, but his excellent control, ground ball tendencies and ability to keep the ball in the yard (7.67 K/9, 1.77 BB/9. 2.64 GB/FB, 0.7 HR/9) all speak well of the 26-year-old southpaw. With his low ownership in seasonal leagues, might I suggest you claim him off your league’s waiver wire before your opponents realize what a gem he has been? Gausman’s past history suggests that he cranks up the volume during the second half of the season, and he has demonstrated that again in 2016. Aside from a three inning, six run debacle against the Blue Jays, he has tossed three QS since the All-Star game with 24 Ks over those 23.2 innings. He has pitched better at home than on the road, but he does head to two pitcher-friendly venues when he takes on the A’s and Giants this scoring period.

Fiers opens the arbitrarily set second tier this week. He gets to start the week in Minnesota, and despite his home/road splits favoring him at home, this is a decent matchup. The second start at Toronto is more of a concern, given his home run allowing tendencies. He has flashed better strikeout ability of late, though, and has also demonstrated good control all season long. He is working on a streak of three QS, but that could easily end against the Blue Jays in his second start, making him more of a one-start and hope option this week. Wacha’s ratio stats are unimpressive (4.35 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) but digging deeper, his 3.73 FIP and 3.94 xFIP, and .333 BABIP suggest he should see some positive movement in those stats going forward. He does generate a good amount of groundball action from opposing hitters (2.01 GB/FB ratio over 22 starts) which helps keep the ball in the yard (0.9 HR/9 rate over 126.1 innings pitched in 2016).

Chatwood has troubles at home, posting a 5.72 ERA at Coors this season with a 1.71 WHIP. He has been excellent on the road, however, with a 1.30 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in nine road starts covering 55.1 innings. Thus, his first game facing Texas is not an ideal matchup by any stretch, but he looks awfully good for his second appearance of the week in Phily. Of course, as indicated below in Tier 3, I am not currently a fan of the Texas starter A.J. Griffin who takes the mound on Tuesday, so it is not a throwaway start for Chatwood, either, if his offense can power him to a win. Iwakuma gets to face the Tigers in his first start of the week at home, which is a positive for him, and his second start at Oakland, despite his worse road performance this season, is not exactly a reason to avoid him. He is a below average K producer, and allows too many home runs, which is a concern when he faces the Detroit hitters, as Safeco has not been as great a pitcher’s park as in the past. As with Chatwood, he is better served as a one start option this week.

Severino has rejoined the Yankee rotation, after being demoted earlier this season following a disastrous first month and a half to open the season, when he put up a horrific 7.46 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over seven appearances. He looks to have turned things around at Triple-A, and after three scoreless relief appearances, he is now set to make two starts in Week 19. Taking on the Red Sox with their ace Porcello on the mound is not an ideal first return start, but he looks like a better option to plug in when he heads to Tampa Bay for a Sunday afternoon trip to the mound. If he pitches well, his below 50 percent ownership numbers may change, so if you believe in him for the second half of the season, now would be the time to make a claim for his services off the wire in your league.

This is by far the largest tier this week. The top two pitchers, Santiago and Griffin, would normally have made the middle tier, but I do not like the move to Minnesota for Santiago to improve his win potential, and he has been lucky this season, as witnessed by his 5.16 FIP (4.37 ERA) and depressed .263 BABIP. Griffin gives up too many homers to be trustworthy, especially heading to Colorado and then taking on the hot Tiger offense at home. The balance of the tier are not worth considering for two starts, although I might be tempted to stream a couple of them, perhaps McHugh and/or Volquez at Minnesota, or Miley at Oakland. Only if I were in need of a spot start, though, you understand.

Please note that the Fantasy Alarm Forums are now open for your use, to ask questions or provide your own commentary and wisdom. I enjoy responding to comments, or if you do not want to put your question out for public consumption, feel free to write me at ia@fantasyalarm.com for a more personal response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better my response will be suited to your individual situation. I am open to questions about issues apart from starting pitching, too, as I play fantasy sports as well as serve as an analyst. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.