Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: Week 18

With the trade deadline coming up on Monday, please understand that these two-start projections can change. The Marlins already shook up their rotation, with Tom Koehler now a two-start pitcher and Adam Conley losing one of his previously scheduled appearances. We should plan for other revisions to take place as pitchers switch teams and perhaps leagues, as teams make their moves to finish atop their divisions or at least grab a wild card position.

There are plenty of top-tier pitchers, some you may not fully agree with, and that is OK with me. There are also, once again, only a relative handful (maybe two handfuls) of SPs that I consider proper middle-tier options. The bottom tier is not exactly bloated, and some of its denizens would not be there save for a bad matchup or two.

Please realize that I am working off the most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher I have listed as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, I apologize but I only provide analysis, I do not set the lineups or rotations.

Without further ado, here are this week’s two-start pitchers:

As I said above, you may not fully agree with all the pitchers that inhabit the top tier. Perhaps you are concerned with Price's struggles this season, but he gets to pitch away from home and the home fans' boos, and he has been pushing his ERA down slowly but surely. He may not be the ace the Red Sox thought they were signing, but I also would not count him out in the second half. Tanaka, Darvish and Stroman are not models of consistency, but Darvish has pitched through the sixth inning in his last two starts, and Tanaka gets a good matchup against the weak Mets offense in his first start, and then gets Cleveland at home.

Stroman also gets to head on the road, and should rack up the Ks in his first start of the week against Houston, and gets to pitch in a good pitchers' park when he winds up the week in Kansas City. If you do not like a matchup, then sit any of those guys, but for the most part, I am willing to roll with any of these two-start pitchers in Week 18 for both their trips to the mound.

We only have 10 occupants of the middle tier, and they break into two sub-tiers neatly in my opinion. The first sub-tier opens with Moore and ends with the two Grays. Moore excited fantasy players with a superb spring, and carried that success into the early part of the season, before the wheels fell off his cart. He has righted the ship (too many clichés?) beginning with his June 12 start, and has tossed eight quality starts in his last nine appearances. He is only an average strikeout producer, though, and that hurts his overall fantasy value, but a pair of home starts make him this week's top middle tier option.

Hammel has long been a favorite SP of mine, as long-time readers can attest, so his recent success in his last four starts makes me glad I drafted him. His unsustainable .250 BABIP and the 4.40 FIP (opposed to his career best 3.23 ERA) both suggest regression is in his future, unfortunately, so be prepared to cut ties with him. His two starts this week are attractive, though, so I would plug him into your starting rotation in Week 18. Shoemaker has been up and down, as evidenced by his two games where he allowed five earned runs to the Red Sox and Royals, but those games sandwiched three starts where he allowed five earned runs total to the Orioles, White Sox and Astros. The matchups this week are decent, with Oakland coming to Anaheim and then with the Angels heading to a pitchers' park in Seattle. I do not expect many more single K games, either, as he has been striking out nearly a batter per inning this season.

Bradley has gotten a handle on his earlier homer-prone tendencies, allowing just four over his past eight starts, and that is a good thing, given his control issues. He does not pitch deep into games, but he does not yield many runs while on the mound. His second start of the week against Milwaukee looks like his best opportunity for a victory if you want to avoid him at home against the Nationals. Gray gets two starts at Coors Field, which is not as positive as it was earlier in the season when his home/road splits were more even. He is striking out better than a batter per inning, though, and is working on a five game QS streak. Plus, he is pitching deep into games, which helps him rack up the Ks.

The second and bottom sub-tier begins with McCarthy and winds up with Ventura. McCarthy had a short, four inning outing against Tampa Bay in his last start but had been looking fine before that abbreviated start. He is posting elite K numbers (11.28 K/9) although his control needs work (3.08 BB/9). He also faces Colorado on the road in his first start of the week, but at least gets to face Boston at home at the end of the week. Nelson is coming off a pair of poor starting efforts, but he does get to face the Padres at Petco in his first start of the week. The second against the Diamondbacks of greater concern, but he has been able to limit the damage via the long ball in his road starts this season. He has been a decent overall SP option this season, but does have his occasional poor outings. I would use him against San Diego, but unless he does well in that appearance, I would probably skip the road start in Arizona.

Bundy is not going to pitch deep into games, as the Orioles have their oft-injured on a tight pitch count. He is a good source of strikeouts, posting a 8.48 K/9 over his 52 innings this year in 25 appearance (three starts). His control is shaky, though, and he yields a ton of fly balls (0.78 GB/FB ratio) which undoubtedly leads to a poor home run ratio of 1.4 per nine innings. Both his matchups could see the ball heading over the fence, but the strikeouts are tempting. Paxton is another pitcher that provides good K numbers, with the lefty throwing his fastball at 97 MPH this season. He is showing excellent control, too, having allowed just 17 walks over his 11 starts. He also generates a lot of groundballs, with a 2.15 GB/FB ratio in 2016, and has been effective in keeping the ball in the yard, posting a superior 0.7 HR/9 ratio. Having two home games this week is not the best, as his road numbers are better than when he pitches at Safeco.

Ventura has thrown three QS in his last four appearances, and that is the best I can say about him. He throws hard, but posts below average K numbers, and his control is awful. The only thing that interests me this week is that he gets to face the Rays in his first scheduled start, but I would not recommend him too highly when Toronto visits at the end of the scoring period.

I am not willing to trust any of these pitchers with two starts, although I might stream one or more of them in the right situation. Sabathia against the Mets in his first start of the week, or Eflin at San Diego at the end of the scoring period are options to consider. The balance of these guys, however, I want no part of, even my recent surprise favorite Fister, or the previously touted Foltynewicz.

Please note that the Fantasy Alarm Forums are now open for your use, to ask questions or provide your own commentary and wisdom. I enjoy responding to comments, or if you do not want to put your question out for public consumption, feel free to write me at ia@fantasyalarm.com for a more personal response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better my response will be suited to your individual situation. I am open to questions about issues apart from starting pitching, too, as I play fantasy sports as well as serve as an analyst. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.