There are plenty of two-start choices this week, especially in the top tier. I should also note that there are plenty of residents dwelling in the bottom tier as well this scoring period, who I recommend you avoid putting into your starting lineups.
As I advised last week, I am traveling on vacation currently, and writing this article from my hotel room in our nation's capital, as I get ready to go see the Nationals host the Cincinnati Reds this evening. Thus, I am a bit pressed for time, so the analysis of the middle tier will be abbreviated this week and next. Week 16 things will return to normal. I do have internet access so if you have specific starting pitching questions, go ahead and send me a message, or post on our new forum, where I check in regularly.
Please realize that I am working off the most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher I have listed as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, I apologize but I only provide analysis, I do not set the lineups or rotations.
Without further ado, here are this week’s two start pitchers:
| Start 'em If You Own 'em |
|
Starting Pitcher | First Start/Opponent/Date | Second Start/Opponent/Date |
Max Scherzer WAS | vs. MIL Junior Guerra | @ NYM Matt Harvey |
| Mon 7/4 11:05 AM ET | Sat 7/9 7:15 PM ET |
Danny Salazar CLE | vs. DET Daniel Norris | vs. NYY Masahiro Tanaka |
| Mon 7/4 7:10 PM ET | Sat 7/9 4:10 PM ET |
Carlos Carrasco CLE | vs. DET Jordan Zimmermann | vs. NYY CC Sabathia |
| Tue 7/5 7:10 PM ET | Sun 7/10 1:10 PM ET |
John Lackey CHC | vs. CIN Brandon Finnegan | @ PIT Jameson Taillon |
| Tue 7/5 2:20 PM ET | Sun 7/10 1:35 PM ET |
Matt Harvey NYM | vs. MIA Tom Koehler | vs. WAS Max Scherzer |
| Mon 7/4 4:10 PM ET | Sat 7/9 7:15 PM ET |
Carlos Martinez STL | vs. PIT Jonathon Niese | @ MIL Chase Anderson |
| Mon 7/4 2:15 PM ET | Sat 7/9 2:10 PM ET |
Masahiro Tanaka NYY | @ CHW Carlos Rodon | @ CLE Danny Salazar |
| Tue 7/5 8:10 PM ET | Sat 7/9 4:10 PM ET |
Kenta Maeda LAD | vs. BAL Chris Tillman | vs. SD Christian Friedrich |
| Tue 7/5 10:10 PM ET | Sun 7/10 4:10 PM ET |
Kyle Hendricks CHC | vs. CIN Cody Reed | @ PIT Jonathon Niese |
| Mon 7/4 2:20 PM ET | Sat 7/9 7:15 PM ET |
vs. COL Tyler Anderson | vs. ARI Archie Bradley | |
| Tue 7/5 10:15 PM ET | Sun 7/10 8:00 PM ET |
Aaron Sanchez TOR | vs. KC Edinson Volquez | vs. DET Daniel Norris |
| Mon 7/4 7:07 PM ET | Sat 7/9 1:07 PM ET |
Plenty of top options this week, and Bumgarner is a recent add, so that is a nice bonus in Week 14. You may hesitate with such pitchers as Tanaka, Maeda, Harvey or Sanchez, and you need to go with your instincts, but if I own any of these top-tier pitchers, I am plugging them into my lineup and forgetting about them this week.
| Maybe Yes, Maybe No |
|
Starting Pitcher | First Start/Opponent/Date | Second Start/Opponent/Date |
Junior Guerra MIL | @ WAS Max Scherzer | vs. STL Mike Leake |
| Mon 7/4 11:05 AM ET | Sun 7/10 2:10 PM ET |
Jake Peavy SF | vs. COL Eddie Butler | vs. ARI Zack Greinke |
| Mon 7/4 4:05 PM ET | Sun 7/10 8:00 PM ET |
Archie Bradley ARI | vs. SD Luis Perdomo | @ SF Madison Bumgarner |
| Mon 7/4 9:10 PM ET | Sun 7/10 8:00 PM ET |
Daniel Norris DET | @ CLE Danny Salazar | @ TOR Aaron Sanchez |
| Mon 7/4 7:10 PM ET | Sat 7/9 1:07 PM ET |
Matt Moore TB | vs. LAA Tim Lincecum | @ BOS TBA |
| Mon 7/4 1:10 PM ET | Sat 7/9 4:05 PM ET |
A.J. Griffin TEX | @ BOS David Price | vs. MIN Tommy Milone |
| Tue 7/5 7:10 PM ET | Sun 7/10 3:05 PM ET |
Mike Foltynewicz ATL | @ PHI Zach Eflin | @ CHW James Shields |
| Tue 7/5 7:05 PM ET | Sun 7/10 2:10 PM ET |
Taijuan Walker SEA | @ HOU Dallas Keuchel | @ KC Chris Young |
| Tue 7/5 8:10 PM ET | Sun 7/10 2:15 PM ET |
Lance McCullers HOU | vs. SEA Wade Miley | vs. OAK Kendall Graveman |
| Mon 7/4 2:10 PM ET | Sat 7/9 4:10 PM ET |
Steven Matz NYM | vs. MIA Wei-Yin Chen | vs. WAS Gio Gonzalez |
| Tue 7/5 7:10 PM ET | Sun 7/10 1:10 PM ET |
Dallas Keuchel HOU | vs. SEA Taijuan Walker | vs. OAK Sean Manaea |
| Tue 7/5 8:10 PM ET | Sun 7/10 2:10 PM ET |
Rick Porcello BOS | vs. TEX Nick Martinez | vs. TB Jake Odorizzi |
| Mon 7/4 1:35 PM ET | Sun 7/10 1:35 PM ET |
Jerad Eickhoff PHI | vs. ATL TBA | @ COL Eddie Butler |
| Mon 7/4 4:05 PM ET | Sat 7/9 8:40 PM ET |
Sean Manaea OAK | @ MIN Tommy Milone | @ HOU Dallas Keuchel |
| Tue 7/5 8:10 PM ET | Sun 7/10 2:10 PM ET |
Tyler Anderson COL | @ SF Madison Bumgarner | vs. PHI Zach Eflin |
| Tue 7/5 10:15 PM ET | Sun 7/10 4:10 PM ET |
Zach Eflin PHI | vs. ATL Mike Foltynewicz | @ COL Tyler Anderson |
| Tue 7/5 7:05 PM ET | Sun 7/10 4:10 PM ET |
Mike Leake STL | vs. PIT Jameson Taillon | @ MIL Junior Guerra |
| Tue 7/5 8:15 PM ET | Sun 7/10 2:10 PM ET |
R.A. Dickey TOR | vs. KC Chris Young | vs. DET Jordan Zimmermann |
| Tue 7/5 7:07 PM ET | Sun 7/10 1:07 PM ET |
Tom Koehler MIA | @ NYM Matt Harvey | vs. CIN Cody Reed |
| Mon 7/4 4:10 PM ET | Sun 7/10 1:10 PM ET |
vs. LAA Jered Weaver | @ BOS Rick Porcello | |
| Tue 7/5 7:10 PM ET | Sun 7/10 1:35 PM ET |
@ CLE Carlos Carrasco | @ TOR R.A. Dickey | |
| Tue 7/5 7:10 PM ET | Sun 7/10 1:07 PM ET |
Kendall Graveman OAK | @ MIN Ricky Nolasco | @ HOU Lance McCullers |
| Mon 7/4 2:10 PM ET | Sat 7/9 4:10 PM ET |
Jameson Taillon PIT | @ STL Mike Leake | vs. CHC John Lackey |
| Tue 7/5 8:15 PM ET | Sun 7/10 1:35 PM ET |
Brandon McCarthy LAD | vs. BAL Yovani Gallardo | vs. SD Luis Perdomo |
| Mon 7/4 9:10 PM ET | Sat 7/9 7:15 PM ET |
We have a boatload of SPs to choose from in the middle tier this week. I will divide them into sub-tiers, and the first tier opens with Guerra and runs down through Griffin. Guerra is working on five of six quality starts in his recent mound appearances. He rebounded nicely against the Dodgers, the sole opponent who knocked him out short of six innings with a two-hit, eight-inning start in his last trip to the mound. He has been solid all season, and despite having tougher matchups this week, he is my top guy this period. I heard recently that money issues may have been pressing on Peavy's mind, leading to his sub-par performance in the beginning of the season. He has allowed three or fewer runs in seven of his last ten starts, and despite his recent poor outing against the A's, he also has been a solidly effective pitcher since early May. Two home starts in Week 14 are in his favor, too. Bradley has turned it on since mid-June, putting up solid strikeout per inning numbers, although he still has spotty control. He gets to face the lackluster Padres offense in his first start, and pitching at San Francisco is a decent pitcher's venue, as well.
Norris is back in the Tigers' rotation, and is showing great control and an ability to miss bats. He should start to pitch deeper into games as his arm gets stretched out, and while both his matchups are not exactly favorable, the Tigers' offense can also overcome a lot for their pitchers. Moore was someone I targeted in drafts based on his strong spring, but had to cut him loose when he struggled early on in 2016. He is now pitching well enough that I am searching the wire for him. He has tossed three QS out of his last four outings, and is putting up good K numbers with better control than early in the year. Griffin wraps up the top sub-tier, and while he is not a flame-throwing strikeout pitcher, his 88 MPH fastball and off-speed offerings keep opposing hitters off balance and with his command, let him put up nice K results and excellent non-counting stats. His two matchups are not overwhelming, and his team can provide adequate offense to put him in a good position to pick up the victory so long as he can locate his pitches.
The second sub-tier begins with Foltynewicz and runs down to Eickhoff. Foltynewicz pitches for a bad, rebuilding team, it must be admitted. He is fresh off the DL, and his pitch count will be monitored, but he has shown an ability to hold opponents to minimal run production, having allowed two or fewer in runs in five of his last six starts. He is not an exciting option, just a steady producer on most days. Walker missed time with a foot injury, and has said he will just have to pitch through the issue. He may not be pitching as deep into games as his owners would like, but he offers good peripherals and counting stats, although he would be higher in this tier if he was not pitching on the road in both his starts in Week 14. McCullers missed his last start with a blister, but is scheduled to start twice at home this week. He has been much better at home this season, and he offers elite strikeout potential, although his control could improve.
Matz has given his owners a scare with an elbow issue, and the bone spurs are not going away any time soon it appears. He is not pitching as deep into games since the issue was diagnosed, and that limits his utility, but he is still striking out hitters at an excellent clip. He has a pair of home starts in Week 14. Keuchel appears to be getting over his early season struggles, with three consecutive QS and a pair of consecutive wins, too. He, like teammate McCullers, has a pair of home starts in Week 14. Porcello, so long as he has his sinker working effectively, is a serviceable pitcher, and he has a pair of home starts upcoming this scoring period, too. He is also striking out hitters at a career level, and his control is excellent. Too bad his offense is slacking off, but I do like his chances to pick up another couple of QS if not victories. Eickhoff gets to face Atlanta in his first start, which is generally a good thing for any starting pitcher. He has allowed more than two runs only once in his last six starts, but you might want to consider sitting him when he heads to Coors Field for his second start of the week.
The third, but not final, sub-tier begins with Manaea and winds up with Dickey. Manaea came off the DL with a forearm issue to pitch a strong 5.2 innings against the Giants. He gets the Twins in his first start in Week 14, and I would use him at Target Field, but might want to sit him against the surging Astros in his second start. Anderson has allowed just seven earned runs in his four starts, and has been effective both at home and on the road. The Coors Field effect may strike him at some point, but right now he is striking out a batter per inning and showing great control. Going to San Francisco and facing their ace is not a great start to the week, but he is providing his owners with good stats in his early MLB career.
Eflin has an ugly 5.75 ERA but has pitched better in his past couple of appearances. He also gets to face the Braves in his first start, which is promising. Pitching in Colorado during his second start may give you pause, and sitting him may be a wise decision. Neither Leake nor Dickey are exciting options, just somewhat dependable veterans who offer below average strikeout potential, but eat up innings if that is important in your league. They also pitch for good teams that give them opportunities to collect victories, although the QS options are significantly fewer most outings. I like Leake's schedule better than Dickey's, although the Toronto hurler's use of the knuckleball skews predictions, as when it's dancing, he is the better pitching option.
The fourth and final sub-tier starts with Koehler and wraps with McCarthy. Koehler is coming off a couple of starts where he was roughed up in the first inning, the latest a three inning aborted start against the Tigers. He had been on mini three game win streak before the Cubs and Tigers hit him hard early on, and does have a couple of favorable starts against average at best offenses. Perhaps the past two outings were the blip on the radar screen, but he is still a risky two start option. Odorizzi has thrown just one QS in his past five starts, although he has been a good source of strikeouts. His control has failed him lately, though, and his ERA has been slowly but steadily rising since the beginning of June. I would consider using him at home in his first start against the visiting Angels and Jered Weaver, but sit him when he heads to Boston for his second start at the end of the week. Zimmermann is not looking like the ace of the Tiger staff as he did early in 2016, and you have to wonder if his mild groin strain has altered his pitching mechanics. He has had only a single QS in his past five starts, and his ERA is now approaching four runs per nine. He is not a great source of Ks, but still shows good control. Facing both the red-hot Indians and the powerful Blue Jays on the road make we want to fade him this week.
Graveman's strikeout rate is sitting at 6.2 K/9 currently, and he is not missing bats with the frequency that he showed earlier this season. His ERA now sits at an ugly 4.84 with a 1.54 WHIP, but he does get to face the Twins in his first start in Week 14, and that makes him semi-worthy of consideration. Heading to Houston for his second start makes me want to avoid him as a two-start option this scoring period. Taillon is going to go through some ups and downs as a rookie SP, but he also is now throwing a two-seam fastball and had success in his most recent start against the Mariners. He held Seattle to just one earned run on six hits over six innings while collecting his second MLB victory. He has a couple of tough matchups, facing the Cards and Cubs on the road, but he has been good away from PNC this season, albeit in a small sample size, so if you like to trust rookies, go ahead and plug him in if he is available in your league. McCarthy is coming off the DL, and while he has been a dependable starter in the past, this situation hints of caution. Some believe in using a SP who is coming off the DL, and the that occasional works, I would hesitate to put full faith in the 32-year-old righty, although getting two home starts is a positive for him. Maybe you can tell I am not entirely sold on McCarthy, but also not willing to fully discount him, either.
| Not On My Roster |
|
Starting Pitcher | First Start/Opponent/Date | Second Start/Opponent/Date |
@ TOR Aaron Sanchez | vs. SEA Wade Miley | |
| Mon 7/4 7:07 PM ET | Sat 7/9 4:15 PM ET |
CC Sabathia NYY | @ CHW James Shields | @ CLE Carlos Carrasco |
| Mon 7/4 2:10 PM ET | Sun 7/10 1:10 PM ET |
James Shields CHW | vs. NYY CC Sabathia | vs. ATL Mike Foltynewicz |
| Mon 7/4 2:10 PM ET | Sun 7/10 2:10 PM ET |
Jered Weaver LAA | @ TB Jake Odorizzi | @ BAL Yovani Gallardo |
| Tue 7/5 7:10 PM ET | Sun 7/10 1:35 PM ET |
Wade Miley SEA | @ HOU Lance McCullers | @ KC Edinson Volquez |
| Mon 7/4 2:10 PM ET | Sat 7/9 4:15 PM ET |
Tim Lincecum LAA | @ TB Matt Moore | @ BAL Ubaldo Jimenez |
| Mon 7/4 1:10 PM ET | Sat 7/9 4:05 PM ET |
Cody Reed CIN | @ CHC Kyle Hendricks | @ MIA Tom Koehler |
| Mon 7/4 2:20 PM ET | Sun 7/10 1:10 PM ET |
@ ARI Archie Bradley | @ LAD Kenta Maeda | |
| Tue 7/5 9:40 PM ET | Sun 7/10 4:10 PM ET |
Ricky Nolasco MIN | vs. OAK Kendall Graveman | @ TEX Nick Martinez |
| Mon 7/4 2:10 PM ET | Sat 7/9 9:05 PM ET |
Chris Young KC | @ TOR R.A. Dickey | vs. SEA Taijuan Walker |
| Tue 7/5 7:07 PM ET | Sun 7/10 2:15 PM ET |
Eddie Butler COL | @ SF Jake Peavy | vs. PHI Jerad Eickhoff |
| Mon 7/4 4:05 PM ET | Sat 7/9 8:40 PM ET |
Tommy Milone MIN | vs. OAK Sean Manaea | @ TEX A.J. Griffin |
| Tue 7/5 8:10 PM ET | Sun 7/10 3:05 PM ET |
Nick Martinez TEX | @ BOS Rick Porcello | vs. MIN Ricky Nolasco |
| Mon 7/4 1:35 PM ET | Sat 7/9 9:05 PM ET |
Erik Johnson SD | @ ARI Zack Greinke | @ LAD TBA |
| Mon 7/4 9:10 PM ET | Sat 7/9 7:15 PM ET |
Jonathon Niese PIT | @ STL Carlos Martinez | vs. CHC Kyle Hendricks |
| Mon 7/4 2:15 PM ET | Sat 7/9 7:15 PM ET |
Gio Gonzalez WAS | vs. MIL Zach Davies | @ NYM Steven Matz |
| Tue 7/5 7:05 PM ET | Sun 7/10 1:10 PM ET |
Luis Perdomo SD | @ ARI Archie Bradley | @ LAD Brandon McCarthy |
| Mon 7/4 9:10 PM ET | Sat 7/9 7:15 PM ET |
Yovani Gallardo BAL | @ LAD TBA | vs. LAA Jered Weaver |
| Mon 7/4 9:10 PM ET | Sun 7/10 1:35 PM ET |
Once again, I have been aggressive about putting those starters I do not trust in the bottom tier. I personally own Niese and Gonzalez in a few leagues, but until they can show me that they are able to effectively get batters out, I am sitting them unless I am desperate to satisfy a minimum innings requirement in a league. I have heard talk that Gonzalez may lose his rotation spot, but that is just a rumor at this point.
Please note that the Fantasy Alarm Forums are now open for your use, to ask questions or provide your own commentary and wisdom. I enjoy responding to comments, or if you do not want to put your question out for public consumption, feel free to write me at ia@fantasyalarm.com for a more personal response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better my response will be suited to your individual situation. I am open to questions about issues apart from starting pitching, too, as I play fantasy sports as well as serve as an analyst. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.