Last Saturday's article wherein I discussed some late round relief pitchers generated enough interest to inspire this second in the series. Middle relievers and set up men can be a valuable part of your fantasy team's pitching staff, as they contribute strikeouts and great peripherals, despite the limited number of innings pitched. Also, I am seeing a trend toward adding holds as a fantasy category, either on its own or as a save plus hold hybrid (S+H). If your league is now giving credit for holds, then the four pitchers profiled below could be quite valuable, but even if you do not get credit for holds, the ratio stats should be helpful in your quest to dominate your league.
To spell out some guidelines, this series of articles is going to profile starting pitchers (and occasionally relievers) that have an ADP of 200 or better (meaning taken later than pick 200). In a 10 team league, those pitchers would be going in round 21 or later (it would be mid-way through round 16 in a 12 team league). By that point in your draft, you have more than likely filled out your starting offense and picked up an ace and closer, perhaps a couple more pitchers. Your mileage may vary depending on your actual league settings, but you get the general idea.
Please note that the projections for each of the pitchers below are my own, that I create after comparing various sources and adjusting for expected playing time, specifically, innings pitched for starting pitchers. As for the ADP numbers, I am looking at the ADP results our very own Howard Bender is compiling with his Mock Draft Army mocks.
Wade Davis RP KC ADP: 320.0
Davis had a fantastic 2014 season, making the move from a potential back of the rotation guy to a top-notch set up man. He did not allow an extra base hit until his 44th appearance and set a Kansas City franchise record by not allowing opponents to score from 33 consecutive games from July 27th to September 15th. Featuring an elite 95-96 MPH fastball, which he mixes in with his cutter and curve, he posted an excellent 13.6 K/9 rate last season. He generates a fair amount of ground balls (1.71 GB/FB ratio in 2014), and did not yield any home runs during the Royals' trek to the AL Championship. I do expect some regression from his 1.00 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, but given his dominance, not enough to make me pass him up in the later rounds of my drafts. Plus, should something happen to Greg Holland, Davis is the top candidate to step into the closer role in KC, where his stuff would allow him to become an immediate top fantasy option.
2015 Projections: 5 Wins/85 K/2.25 ERA/1.05 WHIP over 70 innings
Joakim Soria RP DET ADP: 326.7
Soria's teammate, Joe Nathan, has at best a tenuous hold on the closer role in Detroit. The Tigers made a point to deal for Soria just because of their shaky bullpen situation. He strikes out better than a
batter per inning, despite tossing a less than overpowering 90 MPH fastball. He demonstrates good control, posting a 1.22 BB/9 rate with Texas and Detroit, which makes his command quite effective. His 2.04 FIP, compared to his 3.25 ERA, shows that he may have been a bit unlucky in 2014, as do his .319 BABIP and 66.7% strand rate. He is a must-have handcuff if you are willing to draft Nathan, and in leagues that count holds, his value shoots up drastically. I would expect more of what he did for the Rangers in 2014 (2.70 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 11.3 K/9) than his Detroit performance where he had an ugly 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 11 innings this coming season.
2015 Projections: 3 Wins/56 K/3.25 ERA/1.10 WHIP over 60 innings
Casey Janssen RP WAS ADP: 339.9
The former Blue Jay closer over the past three seasons signed a one-year contract with the Nationals this past winter. He could see some time at closer, especially if Drew Storen falters early in the season, but is more likely seen as part of the set up crew in our Nation's capital. His declining fastball velocity likely led to his reduced K/9 rate in 2014, dropping from a careen high 9.47 in 2012 to a weak 5.52 in 2014, which led to the Blue Jays parting ways with him. His control did improve last season, however, as he put up an elite 1.38 BB/9 rate. His fantasy value is dependent on the potential that the Nationals turn to him to handle closing duties if Storen disappoints. I would not suggest drafting him, but keep him on speed dial for a waiver wire move if things change in the ninth inning for Washington during the season.
2015 Projections: 4 Wins/40 K/3.48 ERA/1.17 WHIP over 55 innings
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Tony Watson RP PIT ADP: 350.3
Normally, when a pitcher has a higher FIP than ERA, red flags should be raised. In Watson's case, however, it seems that this is just how he rolls. His FIP has generally been a full run higher than his
posted ERA over the past four seasons, but it is difficult to argue with his success. Last season saw him step up into the upper echelon of set up men, putting up a 1.63 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 78 appearances (77.1 IP). He relies on a 94.4 MPH fastball and an improving slider. His K/BB ratio was first-rate in 2014, sitting at 5.40 essentially as a result of his excellent control (1.75 BB/9) coupled with his 9,43 K/9 rate. Like Davis and Soria above, he has a chance to step into the closer role if anything happens to incumbent Pirate ninth inning guy, Mark Melancon. Last year's numbers probably represent his ceiling, and his high strand rate (87.8%) and above average BABIP (.301) argue for some regression. Given his ability to outpitch his FIP, though, I would not expect a huge dip in performance. He may be someone to target in 15-team or larger leagues in the final rounds, but in smaller leagues, he should be on the wire to start the season.
2015 Projections: 5 Wins/70 K/2.20 ERA/1.02 WHIP over 70 innings
Continue to peruse these articles as we try to uncover some late round gems for you to target in your drafts, and allow you to build a formidable starting rotation without sacrificing offense to do so. As seen recently, the occasional article about middle relievers and set up men will appear, but if there is someone specific you have questions about, let me know. If you have any questions about starting pitching or fantasy baseball, feel free to contact me at ia@fantasyalarm.com.