As we delve deeper into the late round pitching options available this season, things are starting to get kinda…questionable. At least as to whether I can honestly recommend that you take a chance on any of the four starting pitchers profiled below. Still, better the devil you know, even in fantasy baseball. Let’s move on and see who is worth a shot this week. If you like any of these guys, you will want to make sure you peruse my Saturday post, too.
To spell out some guidelines, this series of articles is going to profile starting pitchers that have an ADP of 200 or better (meaning taken later than pick 200). In a 10 team league, those pitchers would be going in round 21 or later (it would be mid-way through round 16 in a 12 team league). By that point in your draft, you have more than likely filled out your starting offense and picked up an ace and closer, perhaps a couple more pitchers. Your mileage may vary depending on your actual league settings, but you get the general idea.
Please note that the projections for each of the pitchers below are my own, that I create after comparing various sources and adjusting for expected playing time, specifically, innings pitched for starting pitchers. As for the ADP numbers, I am looking at the ADP results our very own Howard Bender is compiling with his Mock Draft Army mocks.
Tony Cingrani CIN ADP: 335.7
I was at a fantasy baseball seminar in Cincinnati last spring, where the praise for Cingrani was surprising and as it turns out, overblown. This season, the Reds have determined that his best role is out of the bullpen. He missed a large portion of his 2014 season, last pitching on June 19th when he tossed 1.2 innings against Pittsburgh and taking his eighth loss of the season, against just two victories. A shoulder strain and then an impingement in the same shoulder ended his season. He lacks decent secondary pitches, and thus the move to the pen may be beneficial for him and his 91 MPH fastball. He is not going to replace Aroldis Chapman as the closer for the Reds, but may have some value as a middle reliever that can provide strikeouts. The peripherals speak to avoiding him unless he starts to dominate hitters, however, but as a last round flier, he may be worth the gamble. Not on my roster, you understand, but on someone else’s squad he looks good to me.
2015 Projections: 4 Wins/70 K/3.88 ERA/1.33 WHIP over 75 innings
Wade Miley BOS ADP: 336.8
Miley came over to Boston from Arizona in a December trade, and joins a retooled starting rotation for the Red Sox. I see him slotting in as a back of the rotation SP, and do not see him usurping Rick Porcello or Justin Masterson, although he could easily pitch better than Clay Buchholz. Then again, a pitcher with a propensity to yield home runs in the AL East is a dicey proposition. He improved his K/9 rate dramatically in 2014, moving it from 6.66 in 2012 and 6.53 in 2013 to a respectable 8.19 last season, and that in itself is intriguing. His control is still an issue, as he gave up 3.35 walks per nine innings in 2014, up from a not fantastic 2.93 in 2013. Overall, I am not willing to buy in, to Miley or any of the Boston starting rotation except perhaps Porcello and that is only because the former Tiger can keep the ball on the ground. As a home run allowing pitcher, Miley is not on my radar, even in the final rounds of drafts.
2015 Projections: 12 Wins/165 K/3.75 ERA/1.37 WHIP over 200 innings
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Noah Syndergaard NYM ADP: 337.6
With Zack Wheeler going under the knife for Tommy John surgery this spring, some were banking on Syndergaard making the team out of spring and potentially securing a
starting rotation spot. Put those plans in the wastebasket, as the Mets assigned him to their minor league camp last Friday. This is one of those front office decisions, to extend the length of time the club has control of their young pitcher, delaying his accumulation of service time in 2014. I do expect his promotion to the big leagues this summer, especially if he keeps pitching as effectively as he has in minors previously. He features a mid-90s fastball and a sharp breaking 12-to-6 curve. He also strikes out a boatload of hitters, posting a 9.81 K/9 over 133 innings in 2014 with Las Vegas in Triple-A. Speaking of Las Vegas, ignore the inflated ERA and WHIP (4.60 and 1.48, respectively) as he was pitching in the hitting-heavy Pacific Coast League in the bandboxes they call ballparks. When you consider that the back of the Met rotation features Jon Niese, Bartolo Colon and Dillon Gee, I like his chances to come up and show what he can do early this summer, rather than later. In a dynasty or keeper league, you have to grab him now, and if you have the bench space, in a yearly league as well.
2015 Projections: 6 Wins/90 K/3.70 ERA/1.29 WHIP over 90 innings
C.J. Wilson LAA ADP: 338.3
Wilson’s perennial control problems were plainly evident in 2014, during which he posted a horrific 4.35 BB/9 rate over a limited 175.2 innings (he was sidelined for three weeks with an ankle injury). In his favor, he started strong last season, putting up a 3.05 and 1.11 ERA and WHIP through May. After that, however, his lack of familiarity with the strike zone and the rate of contact for opposing batters sent his peripherals into the unusable territory, and he ended the season with an unattractive 4.51 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Sure, he has a league average K rate, but he did not give his owners the usual 200 innings they had become accustomed to in previous seasons. He does manage to keep the ball in the park, which is nice, but in his first spring training action, he gave up four walks in 4.1 innings, and also gave up two dingers (remember, this is spring training and we should expect more long balls). I would leave him for others to draft this spring, and sleep just a bit sounder following your draft day.
2015 Projections: 13 Wins/168 K/3.69 ERA/1.38 WHIP over 190 innings
Continue to peruse these articles as we try to uncover some late round gems for you to target in your drafts, and allow you to build a formidable starting rotation without sacrificing offense to do so. Also, if there is interest in later round middle relievers, I would be glad to include those pitchers in future articles as well. If you have any questions about starting pitching or fantasy baseball, feel free to contact me at ia@fantasyalarm.com.