MLB Best Bets Today, 5/4: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Sunday
Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on.
Sunday’s baseball slate features 16 games on the schedule with every team in action and games lasting all day. We have many interesting matchups on tap as we dive into top MLB picks and predictions. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props to consider.
Keep in mind, some of these odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/4
Our MLB Best Bets Today start with an NL West matchup between the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies. Can the home Giants take care of business in the divisional showdown?
We’ll also dive into an interesting National League battle between the San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates. Check out the MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Sunday’s baseball action.
Rockies vs. Giants Predictions: Sunday, May 4th
The San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies wrap up their four-game series with a Sunday afternoon matchup. If you’ve been betting on baseball at all this season, you know it’s been very profitable to fade the Rockies on almost a daily basis. We’ll gladly do it today with a number of trends pointing in that direction.
Giants starter Logan Webb is off to a strong start to the season with a 2.83 ERA and 1.75 FIP through seven outings. His advanced metrics back it up too. Webb’s 29.9% K rate is a career-high and ranks in the 86th percentile of qualified starts. The right-hander also boasts a 6.6% walk rate (73rd percentile) and 4.7% barrel rate (81st).
Webb should have no issues against the lowly Rockies offense today. Colorado has a .282 wOBA (29th in MLB) and 64 wRC+ (30th) this year. On the road, the lineup ranks dead last in nearly every major offensive category as well. Against right-handed pitching on the road, the Rockies have a .242 wOBA, 49 wRC+, .187 batting average, and 28.1% K rate.
Meanwhile, Webb owns a career 2.69 ERA at home throughout his career. The matchup doesn’t get much better than this one. It would be extremely surprising if the Giants’ righty runs into any trouble at all.
On the flip side, Rockies starter German Marquez is rocking an ugly 9.82 ERA in six starts this season. He’s allowed 6+ runs in four straight outings, with three of those coming on the road. Marquez has a 6.62 ERA in his career against the Giants (17 starts) and a 5.32 ERA in his career at Oracle Park (12 starts).
San Francisco has just an average offense against right-handed pitching this season (.309 wOBA, 101 wRC+). However, we’re simply fading Marquez because of his current form. Opposing teams are averaging 7.3 runs per game in his starts so far.
If you needed more convincing, check out this trend. The Rockies are 2-16 on the road this season, with 13 of those losses coming by 2+ runs. The Giants, on the other hand, are 11-5 at home. Grab San Fran to cover the 1.5 runline for the full game and first five innings.
- Expert Rockies vs. Giants Picks:
- Giants -1.5 Runline (-155 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Giants 1st 5 Innings -1.5 RL (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Padres vs. Pirates Predictions: Sunday, May 4th
The San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates wrap up their weekend series with an intriguing Sunday afternoon tilt. The starting pitchers in this one should anchor a lower-scoring contest. Let’s break it down.
Andrew Heaney should hold his own for Pittsburgh. The left-hander is sporting a 2.50 ERA and 3.34 FIP through six starts thus far. His 32.0% chase rate (81st percentile), 6.5% walk rate (74th), and 36.1% hard-hit rate (70th) bode well for some good outings moving forward.
Heaney will be looking to bounce back after a shaky start against the Cubs on Tuesday. The matchup should be an easier one. San Diego is just a league-average offense on the road against left-handed pitching (.291 wOBA, 82 wRC+). The Padres were averaging just 3.0 runs per game on the road ahead of this weekend’s series.
Meanwhile, San Diego will call up Stephen Kolek from Triple-A to make his first career start today. The right-hander pitched to a 5.21 ERA in 42 relief appearances last year for the Padres. His 6.38 ERA in five Triple-A starts this season doesn’t offer much confidence, either.
It’s definitely risky to back Kolek in any capacity today. However, his 20:4 K:BB ratio in the minors is encouraging. Plus, he didn’t benefit from pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
At least Kolek gets a favorable matchup and a pitcher-friendly ballpark today. The Pirates are a bottom-tier offense vs. right-handed pitching this year with a .291 wOBA (26th in MLB), 81 wRC+ (28th), and .222 batting average (27th). They’re also below-average at home (.293 wOBA, 80 wRC+).
If you’re concerned about Kolek, San Diego’s elite bullpen (1.77 ERA, 3.03 FIP) can also be trusted in the later innings on the road. Take the under for both the full game and the first five innings.
- Expert Padres vs. Pirates Picks:
- Under 8.5 Total Runs (-112 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- 1st 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/4
- Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (-116 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox – Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers – Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-112 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Player News
Nolan Jones is starting in left field and batting sixth for the Guardians on Wednesday against the Reds.
Jones had been relegated to a strong-side platoon earlier in the season, but he has now started back-to-back games against left-handed starting pitchers and five of the last seven. Over his last 23 games, Jones is hitting .300 with 10 RBI, four runs scored, and a 13/1 K/BB ratio. While the batting average is nice, and the playing time is there, it would be good to see a bit more power out of Jones before we start to think about rostering him in most fantasy leagues.
Lane Thomas is starting in centerfield and batting leadoff for the Guardians on Wednesday against the Reds.
Thomas returned from the IL and Monday and went 1-for-5 with a stolen base before being on the bench on Tuesday. It seems that the Guardians were just being cautious with Thomas in his first few games off the IL.
Phillies RHP prospect allowed six runs on eight hits in five innings for Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday.
This was against a Triple-A Red Sox lineup that is now without Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony. There’s a lot of enthusiasm for Painter, and he remains a top-tier pitching prospect, but he hasn’t pitched since 2022 and has a 5.19 ERA in 26 innings at Triple-A this season. He’s likely the 6th starter in Philadelphia for the next month or so with Aaron Nola (ribs) suffering a setback; however, Painter will need to pitch a little better and also show that he can pitch on four days’ rest before he gets a call-up.
Phillies designated RHP Carlos Hernández for assignment.
Hernández has always had plenty of talent in his arm, but he was unable to make the most of it as a starter in Kansas City and posted a 5.26 ERA in 25 2/3 innings out of the bullpen for the Phillies this season. Another team may take a gamble on his upper-90s fastball, or he could return to the Phillies’ minor league system.
Phillies recalled RHP Michael Mercado from Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
The former starter has a 5.31 ERA in 20 1/3 innings out of the bullpen at Triple-A. He’s not on the fantasy radar and will just be organizational depth in Philadelphia.
Marcus Stroman (knee) will start for Double-A Somerset on Wednesday.
The veteran has been on the IL with knee inflammation since April 12th, so this rehab stint will likely be a lengthy one. Depending on the timeline for fellow starter Luis Gil’s return from his lat injury, there may not be a spot in the rotation for Stroman by the time he’s healthy.