MLB Home Run Derby 2024 Predictions, Picks & Participants: Who Will Win?
Welcome to our 2024 MLB Home Run Derby predictions at Fantasy Alarm! We’re going to go through all of the HR Derby contestants first before we break down any of our HR Derby best bets.
MLB Home Run Derby Participants 2024
Using our friends at BetMGM Sportsbook, here are the updated betting odds for each participant:
- Pete Alonso +310
- Marcell Ozuna +375
- Gunnar Henderson +450
- Bobby Witt +500
- Adolis Garcia +600
- Teoscar Hernandez +1100
- Alec Bohm +1800
We could have our second-ever three-time Home Run Derby winner if Pete Alonso takes home the crown. Adolis Garcia represents the hometown team Texas Rangers in this competition, and right-handed batters have an advantage based on some ballpark data we’ll talk about during the breakdown. Let’s dive straight into my MLB Home Run Derby picks and best bets for 2024!
2024 MLB HR Derby Picks - Player To Hit Longest Home Run: Bobby Witt (+175 at BetMGM)
The shortest odds in this category is for Bobby Witt, but I really like the favorite to hit the longest blast of the night. Of all the contestants, Bobby Witt has hit the longest home run of the year (468 ft) and averages the furthest distance on all of his home runs hit (418 ft).
- Bet on Witt To Hit The Longest Home Run at BetMGM Sportsbook today!
2024 MLB HR Derby Best Bets - Jose Ramirez First Round Total Home Runs: Under 19.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Amongst all participants, Jose Ramirez not only has the second longest odds to win the whole thing, but all of his statcast data is really against him. With a three-minute timer for every hitter, it pays to have elite bat speed and a fast swing to move onto the next pitch.
Well, Ramirez is dead last in both of those categories. He’s also last in average distance on his home runs amongst all contestants. He’s participated once in the Home Run Derby and fell way short of this number if you care about historical data at all.
- Bet on Ramirez Under 19.5 First Round Total Home Runs at BetMGM Sportsbook today!
2024 MLB Home Run Derby Winner Prediction: Bobby Witt (+500 at BetMGM)
I already staked my claim that Bobby Witt is going to hit the longest home run of the 2024 Home Run Derby, but why stop there? He’s going to win the whole damn thing! He leads the field in distance, longest home run this year and exit velocity.
Right-handed hitters have had far more success in Globe Life Field this year too as it ranks 10th according to Baseball Savant, while lefties rank just 20th.
- Bet on Witt To Win The 2024 MLB HR Derby at BetMGM Sportsbook today!
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Player News
Drew Pomeranz fired a scoreless ninth inning on Monday against the Marlins to record his first save of the season.
Pomeranz, who hasn’t allowed a run in seven relief appearances since making his Chicago debut back on April 25, got the call to protect a three-run lead with Porter Hodge likely unavailable after throwing 29 pitches in a pair of appearances over the weekend. It certainly appears the Cubs are going to try to stay away from Ryan Pressly in save situations for the time being. The 36-year-old veteran southpaw struck out Kyle Stowers and got Eric Wagaman to fly out to center field before Connor Norby delivered a two-out single. He froze Derek Hill on a 94.4 mph fastball to extinguish any hopes of a comeback and preserve the victory.
Colin Rea allowed two runs over 6 2/3 innings on Monday in a win over the Marlins.
Rea took a shutout into the seventh inning before giving up a two-run homer to Derek Hill, which accounted for all of the damage against him in this one. He finished with four strikeouts and only handed out two free passes. It was a much-needed bounce-back effort after allowing five runs his last time out against the Giants. He’ll square off against the White Sox on Sunday in his next outing.
Alex Verdugo delivered a walkoff single in the bottom of the ninth as the Braves edged the Nationals 4-3 on Monday.
Verdugo’s grounder up the middle scored Eli White from second. Verdugo also doubled earlier in the game. He entered the night in a 1-for-24 slump, and he needs to turn it on now that Ronald Acuña Jr.'s rehab assignment is about to start.
Grant Holmes pitched 6 1/3 innings and allowed one run Monday against the Nationals.
Holmes left with a two-run lead that failed to hold up, but it was still a necessary strong performance from him with Spencer Strider due back soon. The Braves have to be somewhat tempted to send Holmes back to the pen when that happens; he deserves to be in the rotation over Bryce Elder, but he might be able to make more of a difference late in games. He’s 2-3 with a 4.14 ERA at the moment, and he’ll take on the Braves in Fenway next time out.
Raisel Iglesias took a blown save after allowing two unearned runs but wound up with a win Monday against the Nationals.
After a loss Sunday that was hardly his fault, Iglesias nearly had another one here, the result of a walk, two singles and an ugly throwing error from the usually steady Nick Allen. However, he was able to strike out Alex Call to preserve the tie in the ninth, and he got the win after Jackson Rutledge gave up a run. Iglesias has a 5.51 ERA and three blown saves in nine chances, so he’s on thin ice. Still, his strikeout rate is fine, and there’s not really anyone the Braves want to take his place. Sticking with him seems like the right move for now.
Jake Irvin allowed three runs over six innings Monday in a no-decision against the Braves.
Irvin struck out only one tonight. He had 31/8 K/BB ratio over 36 2/3 innings in his first six starts. In the last three, he’s struck out a total of three batters and walked eight in 17 1/3 innings. The Nationals will stick with him and start him against the Orioles this weekend, but at some point, it’s going to be time to see if he might be better off as a reliever.