MLB Best Bets Today, 9/15: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Sunday
Welcome back to another Sunday of MLB picks as we take a closer look at all of today’s games. Let’s dive into MLB Best Bets and Props as you enjoy the weekend action!
Our top MLB predictions today feature Mets vs. Phillies picks and Reds vs. Twins best bets. Plus, we wrap up our Sunday baseball betting card with some top MLB props today. Enjoy the afternoon and night baseball as we cash our plays!
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 9/15
As always, be sure to shop around for the best Vegas Odds and Lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing.
Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and props for Sunday, September 15th.
Mets vs. Phillies Prediction: Sunday, September 15th
This series between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets has seen two high-scoring games already. The NL East rivals combined for 14 runs on Friday and 10 more on Saturday. In today’s finale, expect another run-filled afternoon.
Mets starter David Peterson is due for negative regression with a 4.93 xERA and 4.00 FIP compared to his 2.98 ERA this season. The left-hander’s .298 BABIP and 80.1% strand rate both suggest he’s been a tad lucky. That luck could run out on the road here against a dangerous offense. The Phillies boast a .344 wOBA, 122 wRC+, and 15.9% K rate vs. left-handed pitching over the past two weeks.
Plus, Peterson has a 4.17 FIP and 4.79 xFIP on the road this season. His low 14.7% K rate on the road is also worrisome compared to a 24.2% K rate at home. Peterson ran into trouble last time out with 5 runs allowed in 4.1 innings on the road in Toronto. He’s also sporting a career 5.30 ERA against the Phillies.
Meanwhile, Cristopher Sanchez starts for Philly. Though he has settled down recently with two straight impressive outings, the Phillies left-hander has not been as sharp as he was earlier in the season. Sanchez has a 3.52 ERA over his past 6 starts and a 4.52 ERA since the beginning of July (12 starts).
Sanchez gets a tough matchup here against a Mets offense that’s lighting up opposing lefties lately. Over the past two weeks vs. southpaws, New York has a .384 wOBA, 153 wRC+, and .300 ISO. It’s a small sample size, but the Mets are a top-5 offense against left-handers over the past month as well (.330 wOBA, 116 wRC+).
Expert Mets vs. Phillies MLB Picks
- Over 8.5 Total Runs (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 Runs (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Reds vs. Twins Prediction: Sunday, September 15th
Sunday afternoon brings us an interesting interleague matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and Minnesota Twins. Although the home Twins are the better team by record and by current Wild Card standing, the road squad has value here to complete the weekend sweep.
Rhett Lowder starts for Cincy as he looks to continue his impressive rookie stint in the big leagues. The right-hander has a 0.59 ERA through three starts so far and has tossed 11.1 scoreless innings combined in his past two outings. Lowder now has a 0.54 ERA over his past 9 starts going back to the minors.
The rookie righty is on a strong run right now and can be effective in a favorable matchup – despite being on the road. The Twins are struggling vs. right-handed pitching lately with a .279 wOBA, 81 wRC+, and .219 BA. It’s also worth noting that Minnesota has a huge four-game set with Cleveland starting up tomorrow, so priorities and motivation may be elsewhere for the Twins hitters.
Meanwhile, Twins starter David Festa has struggled with consistency this season. He has a 5.08 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 2-6 record across 11 outings so far. Though the right-hander has been effective at times, he just allowed 4 runs in his last start and has a 5.30 ERA over his past 4 starts. The Reds have been an average offense vs. righties over the past two weeks (.307 wOBA, 91 wRC+). This is more of a fade of Festa.
Expert Reds vs. Twins MLB Picks
- Reds Moneyline (+142 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- 1st 5 Innings Reds ML (+130 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 9/15
- Houston Astros Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (+105 BetMGM)
- Mackenzie Gore 7+ Strikeouts (+125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.