Welcome back to another Saturday of MLB picks as we take a closer look at all of today’s games. Let’s dive into MLB Best Bets and Props as you enjoy the weekend action!

Our top MLB predictions today feature two marquee divisional matchups with four of the league’s top teams in action. Let’s dive into the Braves vs. Phillies and Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox games tonight. Plus, we wrap up our Saturday baseball betting card with some top MLB props. Enjoy the afternoon and night baseball as we cash our plays! 

 

 


 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 8/31

As always, be sure to shop around for the best Vegas Odds and Lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. 

Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and props for Saturday, August 31st.

 

 


 

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction: Saturday, August 31st

This weekend has multiple series with playoff implications but arguably the biggest is this matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. The Phils are trying to extend their NL East division lead while the Braves attempt to make up ground and bolster their Wild Card resume as well. Let’s find some MLB picks in this Saturday night headliner. 

Zack Wheeler takes the mound for Philly as he continues his excellent season. The ace right-hander has a 2.74 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. It’s no secret how good Wheeler is, but it’s encouraging to see him rate well in advanced metrics: 3.04 xERA (86th MLB percentile), .207 xBA (88th), 32.3% chase rate (85th), 33.5% hard-hit rate (86th). 

Wheeler has been dominant lately with a 1.97 ERA over his past 5 starts and two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 outings. He gives the Phillies a great chance at winning comfortably any time he takes the ball. Wheeler will face an Atlanta offense that’s just about league-average against righties over the past two weeks (.313 wOBA, 99 wRC+). He’s also pitched well against the Braves throughout his career (3.07 ERA) and boasts a 2.87 ERA against them over the past three seasons (8 starts). 

As Wheeler does his thing, bank on run support from the Philly hitters to help build a lead. Braves starter Max Fried has struggled a bit since returning to the rotation with a 5.26 ERA over his last 5 outings. More importantly, though, is this tough matchup. Philadelphia is the league’s best offense vs. left-handed pitching with a .383 wOBA, 147 wRC+, and .335 BA. 

To make matters worse, Fried has a career 4.05 ERA against the Phillies and a career 4.53 ERA in Citizens Bank Park. On that note, the Phillies are hitting well at home this month (.343 wOBA, .281 BA) and have a better home offense overall this season. 

Grab the Phillies on the moneyline for the full game and the runline for the first five innings with Wheeler besting Fried early. Wheeler has a 2.45 ERA at home this year and Philly has won 9 of his last 11 home starts with 8 of those coming by 2+ runs. The Braves, meanwhile, are just 2-5 in Fried’s last 7 starts. 

Expert Braves vs. Phillies MLB Picks

  • Phillies Moneyline (-148 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Phillies -0.5 Runline (+100 BetMGM)

 

 


 

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: Saturday, August 31st

While the Braves vs. Phillies matchup is a good one, this weekend’s Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers series might be even more critical. Arizona is nipping at the heels of Los Angeles in the NL West as the playoff race heats up. Saturday night’s game should be a fun one, so let’s find some MLB picks in this divisional battle.

Merrill Kelly starts for Arizona and he’s looked shaky since returning from injury. The right-hander has allowed 10 runs on 15 hits over his past two starts with an ERA now at 3.98 for the season. Kelly’s 4.55 FIP and 5.18 xERA suggest even more rough outings could be coming. It’s also concerning that his 7.08 K/9 ratio, 11.7% K-BB percentage, and 12.0% barrel rate are all career-worst marks. 

Now Kelly has to face a potent Dodgers offense that’s averaging 5.8 runs over the past 8 games. Los Angeles also has a top-10 lineup against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks (.332 wOBA, 115 wRC+, .773 OPS). Also, consider Kelly has a career 5.49 ERA against the Dodgers. This spot doesn’t bode well for him. 

As LA puts up runs, Arizona should go toe-to-toe in the scoring department. The Diamondbacks have the league’s top offense against right-handers over the past two weeks with a .365 wOBA, 134 wRC+, and .845 OPS. They get Dodgers righty Gavin Stone at home tonight. Stone has a decent 3.33 ERA this season, but his 3.89 FIP and 3.92 xERA suggest negative regression. We’ve seen some of that lately as he has a 4.47 ERA since the beginning of July. 

Stone has benefited from some easy matchups in recent starts, but on the road at Arizona is as tough as it gets right now. He’s faced the Dbacks twice this year and coughed up 4 runs in both outings. Stone has also been worse on the road with a 3.59 ERA away compared to a 3.10 ERA at home. 

Grab the over in this Saturday night matchup as both the Dodgers and Diamondbacks combine for a shootout. Plus, take the over in the first five innings as one or both of Stone and Kelly run into trouble. 

Expert Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks MLB Picks

  • Over 9 Total Runs (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 Runs (-140 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

 


 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 8/31

  • Bryan Woo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Tarik Skubal Over 8+ Strikeouts (+125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Yusei Kikuchi Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Shane Baz Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)