MLB Best Bets For Today, 5/7 - Expert Picks, Predictions & Props
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It was another day of highs and lows yesterday as nailed some really nice bets but also took a couple of losses by near-misses. How does Mitch Keller toss a complete game and only fan five? I’m fine watching Alec Bohm lose his 18-game hit streak and I’m fine with Justin Steele coming up short on strikeouts in his first game back from the MLB injured list. Both had some risk. But man, Keller tossed a fantastic game and usually when distance into a game isn’t a factor, we should hit those K-props. Alas, as the great John Sterling would say, “That’s baseball, Suzyn.”
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/7
We’ve got a nice full-slate of games today and, for the most part, we’ll be able to look at Vegas lines and odds throughout the day, if necessary. We do have one early start as the Rangers and Athletics get underway at 3:30pm ET, so we’ll keep an eye out for that, but you all know how I tend to avoid those games. Texas bats, though. I’ll have to think about it. As for the rest, I’ve gone through it all and here’s what looks good to me.
- Yesterday’s Record: 5-4
- Season Record: 96-78-1
- Bankroll: +8.29 units
*Each of my top MLB picks will be accompanied by their respective odds.
Brewers vs. Royals Prediction: Tuesday. May 7
Despite the appearance of some overall decent numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers lineup against righthanded pitching, they’ve really been struggling recently, posting a just a .299 wOBA with a strikeout rate close to 25-percent over the last seven days. Their lefty bats just aren’t doing it right now and Lugo is limiting lefty hitters to a .238 wOBA anyway. He should be able to handle this lineup and stifle them for the first few innings.
On the other side, Colin Rea, in addition to trying to stifle Bobby Witt, is struggling against lefty bats which means we could see some issues against the likes of Vinnie Pasquantino and a surprisingly scorching Michael Massey. He tries to nibble the corners a little too much and tends to walk too many guys, so I expect to see the Royals jump on him early. Not he, but just enough to cash our bets.
Expert Brewers vs. Royals Picks:
- Royals First 5 Innings Money Line (-125 on Bet365)
- Colin Rea over 1.5 walks (+100 on BetMGM)
- Michael Massey over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-110 on BetMGM)
Mariners vs. Twins Prediction: Tuesday, May 7
We’re jumping right back into this series as we have a strong pitching match-up, at least from the Twins side of things. Bailey Ober’s overall numbers don’t look all that great, but if you zap away the Opening Day eight runs in 1.1 innings and the four runs he coughed up to the White Sox on his last start, you’ll see a 1.48 ERA with 24 strikeouts over 24.1 innings (four starts). Against a Mariners lineup that is still striking out nearly 30-percent of the time against righties this season, he should post a solid effort and keep the Mariners hitters at bay.
We do need the Twins bats to get out in front against Emerson Hancock early. They have a .324 wOBA over the past seven days and picked up with another win yesterday after having lost their 12-game win streak the night before. Hancock has a swinging-strike rate under 10-percent and pitches to a ton of contact in the zone without too much fishing from hitters. In truth, I wanted the Twins money line for the first five innings but there just wasn’t any value n the odds. Instead, we’ll take the small risk with the early run line.
Expert Mariners vs. Twins Picks:
- Twins First 5 Innings -0.5 Run Line (+100 on BetMGM)
- Bailey Ober over 16.5 outs recorded (-115 on BetMGM)
White Sox vs. Rays Prediction: Tuesday, May 7
I wanted to show some love for Zach Eflin who has, historically, pitched better at hm in Tampa over the past year than he has on the road, but I’m going to hold off for now. Instead, I’d rather pick on Mike Soroka who is coming off good (not great) outings against the Twins which is helping us with the odds. He is not a good pitcher. He used to be, but now he walks too many guys and has a miserable 6.1-percent swinging=strike rate. That means he’s pitching to way too much contact and the Rays, while they’ve had their struggles, are playing solid ball lately, posting a .338 wOBA with an impressive 12.2-percent walk rate. Too bad the books are juicing that walk prop to the hulls, huh? Still, we can back the Rays bats and quietly appreciate the free passes they should see.
Expert White Sox vs. Rays Picks:
- Rays First 5 Innings Team Total over 2.5 runs (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Isaac Paredes over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Best MLB Props for Today, May 7
- Kyle Harrison over 5.5 strikeouts (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 6.5 strikeouts (-106 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Edward Cabrera over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.