Happy Labor Day and welcome to the holiday Monday edition of the MLB Best Bets! It has been a weekend of pushing money around but at least they were not big losing days so I will take that. We have a smaller slate on tap for today so as I have said in the past we don't force wagers and if the angles aren't there than the article won't be jam packed. Fear not though as I found a pair of bets for today that I very much support which include a game total and a player prop for you to dig into. Best of luck as always and enjoy the extra day of rest!

  • Sunday's Record: 1-1-1
  • Season Record: 99-82-5
  • Bankroll: +5.39 units

MLB Best Bets for September 4

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres

Back on the road for another series are the Phillies as they travel to San Diego for a matchup with the San Diego Padres! The Phils have rode an surge in offense over the past week as they have scored 43 runs over the their last 7 games and will look to keep the runs rolling again today. I would say the chances of that happening are likely too as Rich Hill will start for the Padres on the mound today with his 5.26 ERA and his 8.5 ERA in the month of August since getting traded to San Diego. Given this matchup the model projects the Phillies to score 4.84 runs today and that sets up a possible over considering the Padres offense on the other side as well. The Padres are expected to score 4.58 runs in this game going against Taijuan Walker who seen his ERA jump up to 4.76 from the last month in August over 4 starts. All of those stats and trends considered I think the total of 9 is a fair number from the sportsbooks but I lean towards the over. 

Pick: Phillies & Padres Over 9 Runs (-110 on BetMGM)

San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs

The race for the final National League Wild Card spot is heating up as we are down to just a few weeks left in the regular season and the Giants find themselves fighting for their lives as they begin this series with the Cubs. Chicago on the other hand is holding down a playoff spot right now up 3 games on the Giants, Marlins and Diamondbacks. This could be a massive series for the playoff picture with everything on the line so I won't pick a winner but I do have a player prop that I love for this game. The Giants strikeout 10.47 times per game on the road this season, the is the 2nd most in the entire MLB and its not a trend that has been improving for them. Enter Justin Steele who will start for the Cubs this afternoon and he has been on his game when it comes to punch outs recently. Over the past 6 starts Steele has collected 41 strikeouts over 34.1 innings and has topped his prop line of 5.5 Ks in every single game during that stretch. Hard to imagine he falls short today given the Giants problems so give me the over on this prop as it likely should've been set higher by the books. 

Pick: Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125 on BetMGM)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.