MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for September 4th
Happy Labor Day and welcome to the holiday Monday edition of the MLB Best Bets! It has been a weekend of pushing money around but at least they were not big losing days so I will take that. We have a smaller slate on tap for today so as I have said in the past we don't force wagers and if the angles aren't there than the article won't be jam packed. Fear not though as I found a pair of bets for today that I very much support which include a game total and a player prop for you to dig into. Best of luck as always and enjoy the extra day of rest!
- Sunday's Record: 1-1-1
- Season Record: 99-82-5
- Bankroll: +5.39 units
MLB Best Bets for September 4
Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
Back on the road for another series are the Phillies as they travel to San Diego for a matchup with the San Diego Padres! The Phils have rode an surge in offense over the past week as they have scored 43 runs over the their last 7 games and will look to keep the runs rolling again today. I would say the chances of that happening are likely too as Rich Hill will start for the Padres on the mound today with his 5.26 ERA and his 8.5 ERA in the month of August since getting traded to San Diego. Given this matchup the model projects the Phillies to score 4.84 runs today and that sets up a possible over considering the Padres offense on the other side as well. The Padres are expected to score 4.58 runs in this game going against Taijuan Walker who seen his ERA jump up to 4.76 from the last month in August over 4 starts. All of those stats and trends considered I think the total of 9 is a fair number from the sportsbooks but I lean towards the over.
Pick: Phillies & Padres Over 9 Runs (-110 on BetMGM)
San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs
The race for the final National League Wild Card spot is heating up as we are down to just a few weeks left in the regular season and the Giants find themselves fighting for their lives as they begin this series with the Cubs. Chicago on the other hand is holding down a playoff spot right now up 3 games on the Giants, Marlins and Diamondbacks. This could be a massive series for the playoff picture with everything on the line so I won't pick a winner but I do have a player prop that I love for this game. The Giants strikeout 10.47 times per game on the road this season, the is the 2nd most in the entire MLB and its not a trend that has been improving for them. Enter Justin Steele who will start for the Cubs this afternoon and he has been on his game when it comes to punch outs recently. Over the past 6 starts Steele has collected 41 strikeouts over 34.1 innings and has topped his prop line of 5.5 Ks in every single game during that stretch. Hard to imagine he falls short today given the Giants problems so give me the over on this prop as it likely should've been set higher by the books.
Pick: Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125 on BetMGM)
**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.
Player News
Blue Jays optioned INF/OF Davis Schneider to Triple-A Buffalo.
Schneider has just one hit in his 15 at-bats over 10 games, although he has gotten on base at a decent .333 clip thanks to five walks and a hit-by-pitch. The 26-year-old will almost assuredly be back for Toronto at some point, but for now the Blue Jays will look to a different option off the bench. That player will be announced before Friday’s game against the Mariners.
Jordan Westburg is hitting fifth as the designated hitter against the Guardians on Thursday.
Westburg got Wednesday off as the Orioles continue to give him maintenance to recover from his upper-body injury, and they won’t ask him to field the baseball for Thursday’s game. Ryan O’Hearn will get Thursday off with Westburg handling DH duties.
Wilmer Flores is not in the lineup for Thursday’s bout versus the Phillies.
Flores will get a day off even with left-hander Cristopher Sánchez on the bump for Philadelphia. Willy Adames is the designated hitter for the contest, and Christian Koss will be the shortstop.
Rays activated OF Richie Palacios off the 10-day injured list.
Palacios has missed the first three weeks of the season with a right finger fracture. The 27-year-old is someone who should see playing time against left-handed pitching, but won’t see enough run — or be good enough with that time — to be an option in fantasy leagues. Coco Montes was sent to Triple-A to make room.
Rays optioned INF Coco Montes to Triple-A Durham.
Montes gets the boot from the active roster with Richie Palacios (finger) back off the injured list. The 28-year-old Montes will be up and down throughout the 2025 season and likely his career.
Dodgers optioned RHP Bobby Miller to Triple-A Oklahoma City.
Miller was going to head back to Oklahoma City even if he pitched well Wednesday, but it’s worth noting that the 26-year-old scuffled while allowing six runs in his start against the Rockies. The 26-year-old will likely get back at some point with Los Angeles in coming weeks/months, but for now he’ll head back to OKC with a corresponding move to be announced Friday.