MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for September 18th
Welcome to a new week on the MLB best bets and the 3rd to last week in the MLB regular season. What a ride it has been on the betting front this season as I look back and remember all the big hits but also bad beats we have gone through together. As the postseason approaches though their are still plenty of wagers to make in the mean time and today's article has a trio of bets I am locked in on. In this article you find a team total, strikeout prop and a player prop all of which can be played with confidence! Good luck out there to all and I will see you back here on Wednesday for another day of winners!
- Saturday's Record: 1-1
- Season Record: 112-91-5
- Bankroll: +8.08 units
MLB Best Bets for September 18
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Its been a disappointing season for the Padres to this point, no doubt about that but tonight they may get to celebrate as the Rockies come to town for a series. The Rockies are a remarkable 22-53 on the road this season and have shown no signs of improving coming down the stretch here to end the regular season as they've lost 5 of their last 6 and allowed 42 runs in those road games. Enter the first bet for this game here as the Padres are juiced too high on the Money Line side but they are getting fair value on their team total of 4.5 runs. The model projects them right around 4.9 runs tonight going against starter Ty Blach so that's a bet I will be hitting as the Padres should score 5 or more runs. On the other side of the pitching mound tonight is Michael Wacha and he represents the 2nd wager for this game. Wacha's strikeouts for tonight sits at 5.5 and that's just too low considering his recent starts as he's hit the over in 3 of the last 5 outings. He will also be going up against a Rockies team that strikes out 10.11 times per game on the road this season. Love these pair of bets!
Pick: San Diego Padres Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-130 on DraftKings)
Pick: Michael Wacha Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125 on PointsBet)
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
What a series this one should be as the two best teams in the NL East square off tonight to start a brand new series! The Braves are obviously much further along in the standings but this Phillies team is still built up very well and they have Bryce Harper hitting 3rd tonight and I am very much eyeballing him for a player prop! Harper has been great this season since returning from injury way back in the early months of the season and he has continued that roll into September especially against right handed pitching. Harper holds a .298 average with an OPS of .894 against righties this season and lucky for him the Braves are starting Kyle Wright and his 7.48 ERA tonight. Granted Wright doesn't have a large sample size with just 6 starts this season but the vast majority of those appearances have been bad and I will bank on Harper exposing him.
Pick: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-155 on DraftKings)
**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.
Player News
J.P. Crawford singled in the winning run in the bottom of the 11th as the Mariners edged the Yankees 2-1 on Tuesday.
Crawford was 0-for-4 with three strikeouts before his liner to left barely dropped into fair territory and plated the automatic runner in the 11th. It gave him his first RBI in nine games. He’s currently hitting .271/.378/.364 for the season.
Bryan Woo blanked the Yankees for 6 1/3 innings in a no-decision Tuesday.
Woo has come up big for the Mariners in pitching at least six innings every time out this season and going 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA. The 1-0 lead he left with tonight didn’t hold up, but the Mariners did prevail in extra innings to move to 6-2 in Woo’s starts. He’ll face the White Sox next time out.
Andrés Muñoz was charged with a blown save after giving up an unearned run in the ninth Tuesday against the Yankees.
Muñoz created his own trouble by hitting Paul Goldschmidt to start the ninth, but that was the only mistake he made as a pair of grounders went on to score pinch-runner Pablo Reyes. Muñoz still hasn’t given up an earned run this season.
Max Fried allowed one run over five innings before being lifted against the Mariners on Tuesday.
Fried needed 91 pitches to get his 15 outs, so he didn’t come back out for the sixth. Still, he was effective in allowing four hits and striking out five. He’ll take a 1.11 ERA into his next start, which will likely come Sunday against the Mets.
Devin Williams pitched a perfect 10th in a tie game Tuesday against the Mariners.
Williams followed Luke Weaver, who worked flawless eighth and ninth innings before the game went to extras. It’s Williams’ third straight scoreless appearance and sixth in seven games since he was pulled from the closer’s role. Weaver hasn’t had any issues, either, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Williams get a save chance sometime soon.
Robbie Ray allowed three runs over six innings and struck out nine in the Giants’ 10-6 win over the Diamondbacks on Tuesday.
Ray joined Max Fried as the only pitchers off to 6-0 starts thus far this season, and the Giants have gone 9-0 in his outings. His peripherals are significantly worse than his 3.04 ERA, but he’s definitely performed better in his last four starts than he did in his first five, when he seemed more lucky than good. He’ll pitch at home against the Royals next time out.