Welcome to the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for Friday, May 19. The 2023 MLB season has been a tumultuous one and we let it get the better of us during yesterday’s action. When I think about, a phrase my grandfather always used to say comes to mind – pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. We opened the week well, both here on Fantasy Alarm and during the show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. But on a short slate, I tried to get cute and throw in a couple of props to help give us a little boost. I even told you to consider the same-game parlay if you felt so inclined. And what happened? We whiffed on the Baltimore Orioles, a Ryan Mountcastle prop and then ran into the juggernaut that is the St. Louis Cardinals offense. We did hit with the Freddie Freeman prop, but a losing day nonetheless. You have to take some chances, but perhaps a short slate loaded with daytime action wasn’t the best place. I do expect tonight to be significantly better, so let’s get to the baseball bets for today.

  • Yesterday’s Record 1-3
  • Season Record: 58-61-2
  • Bankroll: -10.12
 

 

MLB Best Bets for May 19

Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates may have won two of their last three games, but they are still in the middle of a huge skid, losing 12 of their last 15. We knew the wheels were falling off the wagon at some point and it’s not likely to get much better facing Zac Gallen tonight. The Pirates have a .248 wOBA with a 29.5-percent strikeout rate over the past week and the numbers don’t look much better when you isolate them against just righties. Gallen has been nothing short of spectacular after being roughed up in his first two starts of the season and he’s allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven outings. His strikeout rate has been fantastic (10.99 K/9) and his peripherals tell us he is not pitching over his head. Not even close. Meanwhile, the Pirates are throwing Johan Oviedo who has allowed 18 earned runs over his last 17.2 innings with 12 walks in that span. Oviedo has been a ground ball specialist this season and hasn’t allowed a home run since April 3, but the Diamondbacks have been incredibly patient at the plate over the past week and have a .353 wOBA in that span. They should cover the run line on the road for us.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Run Line (-105 on BetMGM)

Pick: Zac Gallen over 6.5 strikeouts (-120 on BetMGM)

Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers

While Wednesday’s 11-run explosion by the Rockies might be fresh in everyone’s minds, I find it interesting that the team has posted the 10th-lowest team wOBA (.316) over the last seven days and that came on a six-game homestand at Coors and not really against strong pitching. Now they’re back on the road where they have a .287 wOBA with a 25.1-percent strikeout rate and .121 ISO in a pitcher’s park in Texas. They’re also facing a lefty which has been an issue for them, as evidenced by the sixth-lowest wOBA and the league’s worst wRC+ (weighted runs created). Yes, Perez has struggled over his last two starts, but we’ve seen pitchers hit speed bumps before. I’m not saying he’s going to shut them out, but I do see the path to a quality starts and minimal runs scored against. He should also see strong run support as the Rockies are calling up rookie righthander Karl Kauffman who has a 7.78 ERA with a 1.78 WHIP over just 37 innings at Triple-A. The Rangers bats have been strong over the last seven days (.345 wOBA) and their offensive output at home is top-five in the majors. We see the win and we see it being by more than just a run, even if we've been let down by their bullpen in the past

Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 run line (-115 on BetMGM)

Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals

We certainly underestimated the power of the Cardinals lineup yesterday, or maybe, we just overestimated the arm of Julio Urias. Either way, things got out of hand pretty quickly in their first meeting, plating a total of 24 runs. Now, one might say rushing to the over in tonight’s match-up is a dangerous overreaction, but we do have Steven Matz on the mound for St. Louis and he’s been roughed-up often this season, once again, and he’s pitching to way too much contact. The Dodgers numbers against southpaws have been middle-of-the-road this season, but to not expect them to plate a few extra runs against Matz would be silly. Even lefty bats like Freddie Freeman and James Outman have been hitting southpaws well all year. On the other side, the Dodgers are throwing Tony Gonsolin, who I am a big fan of, but you simply cannot deny what the Cardinals offense is doing. Over the past week, they’ve posted a league-best offensive numbers, including a .406 wOBA, .290 ISO and 161 wRC+. Gonsolin is a very talented righty who hasn’t allowed a run in either of his last two starts, but the Cardinals are seeing the ball so well right now, you have to expect some runs.

Pick: Dodgers/Cardinals over 8.5 (-120 on Caesars Sportsbook)

Pick: Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases (+104 on Caesars Sportsbook)