MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for May 19
Welcome to the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for Friday, May 19. The 2023 MLB season has been a tumultuous one and we let it get the better of us during yesterday’s action. When I think about, a phrase my grandfather always used to say comes to mind – pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. We opened the week well, both here on Fantasy Alarm and during the show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. But on a short slate, I tried to get cute and throw in a couple of props to help give us a little boost. I even told you to consider the same-game parlay if you felt so inclined. And what happened? We whiffed on the Baltimore Orioles, a Ryan Mountcastle prop and then ran into the juggernaut that is the St. Louis Cardinals offense. We did hit with the Freddie Freeman prop, but a losing day nonetheless. You have to take some chances, but perhaps a short slate loaded with daytime action wasn’t the best place. I do expect tonight to be significantly better, so let’s get to the baseball bets for today.
- Yesterday’s Record 1-3
- Season Record: 58-61-2
- Bankroll: -10.12
MLB Best Bets for May 19
Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates may have won two of their last three games, but they are still in the middle of a huge skid, losing 12 of their last 15. We knew the wheels were falling off the wagon at some point and it’s not likely to get much better facing Zac Gallen tonight. The Pirates have a .248 wOBA with a 29.5-percent strikeout rate over the past week and the numbers don’t look much better when you isolate them against just righties. Gallen has been nothing short of spectacular after being roughed up in his first two starts of the season and he’s allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven outings. His strikeout rate has been fantastic (10.99 K/9) and his peripherals tell us he is not pitching over his head. Not even close. Meanwhile, the Pirates are throwing Johan Oviedo who has allowed 18 earned runs over his last 17.2 innings with 12 walks in that span. Oviedo has been a ground ball specialist this season and hasn’t allowed a home run since April 3, but the Diamondbacks have been incredibly patient at the plate over the past week and have a .353 wOBA in that span. They should cover the run line on the road for us.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Run Line (-105 on BetMGM)
Pick: Zac Gallen over 6.5 strikeouts (-120 on BetMGM)
Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers
While Wednesday’s 11-run explosion by the Rockies might be fresh in everyone’s minds, I find it interesting that the team has posted the 10th-lowest team wOBA (.316) over the last seven days and that came on a six-game homestand at Coors and not really against strong pitching. Now they’re back on the road where they have a .287 wOBA with a 25.1-percent strikeout rate and .121 ISO in a pitcher’s park in Texas. They’re also facing a lefty which has been an issue for them, as evidenced by the sixth-lowest wOBA and the league’s worst wRC+ (weighted runs created). Yes, Perez has struggled over his last two starts, but we’ve seen pitchers hit speed bumps before. I’m not saying he’s going to shut them out, but I do see the path to a quality starts and minimal runs scored against. He should also see strong run support as the Rockies are calling up rookie righthander Karl Kauffman who has a 7.78 ERA with a 1.78 WHIP over just 37 innings at Triple-A. The Rangers bats have been strong over the last seven days (.345 wOBA) and their offensive output at home is top-five in the majors. We see the win and we see it being by more than just a run, even if we've been let down by their bullpen in the past
Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 run line (-115 on BetMGM)
Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals
We certainly underestimated the power of the Cardinals lineup yesterday, or maybe, we just overestimated the arm of Julio Urias. Either way, things got out of hand pretty quickly in their first meeting, plating a total of 24 runs. Now, one might say rushing to the over in tonight’s match-up is a dangerous overreaction, but we do have Steven Matz on the mound for St. Louis and he’s been roughed-up often this season, once again, and he’s pitching to way too much contact. The Dodgers numbers against southpaws have been middle-of-the-road this season, but to not expect them to plate a few extra runs against Matz would be silly. Even lefty bats like Freddie Freeman and James Outman have been hitting southpaws well all year. On the other side, the Dodgers are throwing Tony Gonsolin, who I am a big fan of, but you simply cannot deny what the Cardinals offense is doing. Over the past week, they’ve posted a league-best offensive numbers, including a .406 wOBA, .290 ISO and 161 wRC+. Gonsolin is a very talented righty who hasn’t allowed a run in either of his last two starts, but the Cardinals are seeing the ball so well right now, you have to expect some runs.
Pick: Dodgers/Cardinals over 8.5 (-120 on Caesars Sportsbook)
Pick: Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases (+104 on Caesars Sportsbook)
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Dillon Dingler went 3-for-5 with a run scored and an RBI on Friday night, helping to lead the Tigers to a come-from-behind 7-6 victory over the Twins in Minneapolis.
The Tigers were staring at a 4-1 deficit heading into the sixth inning but they made quick work of that with a pair of walks and three consecutive singles to start the frame, with Dingler’s RBI single tying the game at 4-4. He also led off the fifth inning with a single and scored his club’s first run on a throwing error by Matt Wallner. Dingler has been absolutely sizzling at the plate to open the season, slashing .387/.406/.677 with a pair of homers and eight RBI.
Colt Keith went 2-for-5 with a run scored and an RBI on Friday night as the Tigers triumphed over the Twins.
Keith played a role in the Tigers’ four-run rally in the sixth inning, reaching on an infield single to load the bases with nobody out. He then scored the tying run on Dillon Dingler’s RBI single. The 23-year-old infielder also drove in a valuable insurance run with a two-out RBI single off of Justin Topa in the seventh inning. With the two-hit attack, he’s now hitting .200/.385/.250 with zero home runs, two RBI and no stolen bases.
Tommy Kahnle snagged his second save of the season on Friday night, escaping the ninth inning with a one-run lead intact against the Twins.
Kahnle made things interesting by allowing a one-out single to Trevor Larnach and a two-out infield single to Edouard Julien. He then surrendered an RBI ground ball single to Ty France that trimmed the lead to one run before ralling to get Mickey Gasper on a ground ball to first to end it. Kahnle has allowed just one run through his first five innings on the season while registering a 5/0 K/BB ratio. While many have speculated that the Tigers’ bullpen will be full of chaos in 2025, it has been Kahnle that has emerged in a traditional closer’s role to open the season. He’s worth a look in any fantasy leagues where he may still be hanging around on the waiver wire.
Reese Olson struggled with his command in a no-decision against the Twins on Friday evening, allowing four runs on six hits over 4 1/3 innings.
Olson also issued three walks on the night while striking out three. He threw just 48 of his 90 pitches for strikes in the ballgame, which contributed to his early exit. The Twins scratched out a run against him in the second inning on an RBI single off the bat of Ty France, then broke the game open with three more in the fifth while chasing him. Olson got 10 swings and misses on 90 pitches on the night, posting a CSW of 23 percent. He’ll look to bounce back as he brings a 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and a 13/8 K/BB ratio (15 innings) into Wednesday’s battle against the Brewers in Milwaukee.
Byron Buxton had a terrific night at the plate in Friday’s loss to the Tigers, going 1-for-4 with a solo homer, walk, three runs scored, two RBI and a stolen base.
Buxton worked Reese Olson for a leadoff walk to start the second inning then stole second base and raced around to score the game’s first run on an RBI single by Ty France. He then plated a run with a fielder’s choice in the fifth inning and scored on Edouard Julien’s RBI double. Buxton also clobbered a 394-foot (108.1 mph EV) solo shot off of Beau Brieske in the seventh that pulled the Twins to within a run at 6-5. Even with the strong night though, he’s hitting just .178/.229/.356 with two homers, six RBI and three stolen bases on the season.
David Festa pitched well in a no-decision against the Tigers in his season debut on Friday night, allowing just one unearned run on three hits over 4 2/3 innings.
Festa struck out four batters on the evening while allowing only one free pass. The only run that the Tigers scratched out against him came on a two-out single by Gleyber Torres on which Matt Wallner overthrew the third baseman allowing Dillon Dingler to score. The 25-year-old right-hander got nine whiffs on 64 pitches in the ballgame, registering a CSW of 28 percent. He’ll look to build off of this strong first start when he takes on the Braves in Atlanta on Friday.