MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for April 5
It’s been quite the start to the 2023 MLB season, hasn’t it? The new MLB rules have certainly created some excitement around the league, there’s been a ton of drama in many of the games played thus far and the MLB best bets are bringing in some very nice early returns. While I am still scratching my head to figure out how the Detroit Tigers got the better of the Houston Astros again, I am loving the run we are still on thanks to the only undefeated team in baseball – the Tampa Bay Rays – and the Orioles bats. The Texas Rangers helped a little too, but it was mostly Baltimore.
- Yesterday’s Record: 2-1
- Season Record: 14-4
- Bankroll: +8.13 units
Baseball gets an early start today, so let’s not waste any time and get right to it.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Boston Red Sox
We’re not going to be over-critical of today’s starters Mitch Keller or Corey Kluber, but I don’t think I’m telling anyone something they don’t know when I say neither is particularly good about missing bats. Yes, Keller had eight strikeouts in his season-debut, but that young, free-swinging Reds team he faced still managed to chase him after four runs in just 4.2 innings. Kluber got beaten up even more in his first start, allowing five runs to the Orioles here at Fenway Park. We’ve actually seen an average of 13.6 runs per game at Fenway thus far and with these two hurlers on the mound, there should be more. Boston alone is posting a .350 wOBA with a .236 ISO against righties this season and while the Pirates haven’t exactly been raking, they shouldn’t have many issues with Kluber.
Pick: Pirates/Red Sox over 8.5 runs (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
While Corbin Burnes was hit around in his season debut, it’s hard not to back him in his first home appearance against a Mets team that has been outscored 19-0 through the first two games of this series. Few people like to bet on a sweep happening, but the raw numbers are telling us we may need to. The Mets have a .241 wOBA against righthanded pitching this season and while they’re not striking out a ton, they’re also not generating much offense, as evidenced by the 51 wRC+ (weighted runs created, for those not familiar), second-lowest in the league. Meanwhile, the Brewers, who are striking out way too much against lefties (31.2-percent), have still managed a .341 wOBA with a .259 ISO against them. We’ll bank on a return to form for Burnes and a Brewers win against David Peterson.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Money Line (-135 at BetMGM)
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
OK, so here’s where we bet against the sweep. Are we really going to believe that the Astros are going to get swept by the Tigers? Not with Cristian Javier on the mound. Sure, the Astros bats have struggled against left-handed pitching this season, but water finds its own level and this is an offense that posted a .340 wOBA with the second-highest wRC+ (124) against southpaws last season. Eduardo Rodriguez pitched well in his debut, but he wasn’t untouchable and these Tigers bats are unlikely to offer him much in run support. With no value on that -225 money line, we’re going right back to the run-line pick.
Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 Run Line (-115 on DK Sportsbook)
**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned
Player News
Brandon Nimmo is absent from Tuesday’s lineup due to illness.
Mets manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters Nimmo is getting an IV and might be available off the bench for Tuesday’s showdown at Citi Field. The 32-year-old authored the performance of a lifetime during Monday’s blowout victory, launching two homers and collecting nine RBI as part of a four-hit effort. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day for now. It’ll be José Azócar in left field on Tuesday night.
Ranger Suárez (back) will throw a bullpen session on Wednesday.
It’s a bit unclear what the next steps are for Suárez with Taijuan Walker set to take the ball on Thursday against the Nationals. The 29-year-old lefty threw 78 pitches over the weekend in a minor league rehab start for Triple-A Lehigh Valley and figures to be an option for the Phillies’ rotation at some point next week.
Jeimer Candelario is scheduled to undergo an MRI on his lower back.
Candelario has played sparingly over the past few weeks and it appears a lingering lower back issue is part of the reason. The 31-year-old could potentially require an injured list stint to put the lingering issue to bed. There should be an update on his status at some point in the coming days.
Austin Hays is absent from Wednesday’s lineup with a hamstring injury.
Reds manager Terry Francona told reporters they’re awaiting MRI results after Hays suffered a hamstring injury during Monday’s series opener against the Cardinals. It’s possible he’ll require a trip to the injured list, but he’s day-to-day for now. There should be an update regarding his status following Tuesday’s game.
Yordan Alvarez is in the lineup at DH for Wednesday’s showdown against the Tigers.
Alvarez is on Houston’s lineup card after being lifted for a pinch-runner during the seventh inning of Monday’s series opener. The Athletic’s Chandler Rome noted that Alvarez didn’t look comfortable on a slide into second base earlier in the contest, so it’s an encouraging sign for fantasy managers that he’s ready for Wednesday’s matchup at Daikin Park.
Brandon Waddell will be called up to make a spot start on Wednesday against the Diamondbacks.
Waddell hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since the 2021 season when he made nine relief appearances between three different organizations. The 30-year-old righty has been outstanding through five starts this season at Triple-A Syracuse, but he’s not a recommended streaming option for fantasy managers at this juncture.