This 2023 MLB season certainly is an interesting one when it comes to the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks section of Fantasy Alarm. We cleared the mechanism with a couple of days off and as we get right back into it, the Philadelphia Phillies offense abandons us in a game that shouldn’t have even been close. Well, the game wasn’t but in the wrong way as the Rockies put a couple of quick runs up on Matt Strahm while Ryan Feltner looked like Cy Young against a struggling Phillies offense. Run production is key and while the Phillies bats are loading up the bases, they are struggling to bring them home. Things will balance out soon enough, but early frustrations are rising. Good thing we locked into the Mets last night as that certainly took the sting out of the early game. We’ll get that mojo back. No need to panic as we are still in the black for the season.

  • Yesterday’s Record: 1-1
  • Season Record: 34-23
  • Bankroll: +6.52 units

We’ve got a big 15-game slate today, so let’s see what bets look good for the day.

 

 

MLB Best Bets for April 21 

Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins

It’s been a bit of a rough start to the season for Twins righthander Tyler Mahle as outings against both the Yankees and Astros didn’t really go according to plan. Still, I rate him as a strong starter and his success against the Nationals (3-1 with 24 strikeouts in 25 innings) should continue here in a home start. He is still showing that strong swing-and-miss stuff with that 12.1-percent swinging-strike rate and the Nationals are still posting the second-lowest wOBA against righties at .264 which comes with almost no power with a .081 ISO. Nationals righthander Trevor Williams has a nice surface ERA of 3.52 thanks to decent outings against Colorado and Cleveland, but his 4.64 FIP and 5.14 xERA definitely indicate some regression. The Twins bats haven’t been the most dominant this season, but with a plus-17 run differential and the Nationals early struggles has me backing Minnesota. No value on the money line, but I’ll still back the home team on the run line.

Pick: Minnesota Twins -1.5 Run Line (-105 on BetMGM)

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels

This is one we have to jump on early as the odds are going to quickly fall out of our favor, so bet it now while you can. There is no doubt in my mind we are backing Shohei Ohtani against a ridiculously soft Royals team that already has a ridiculous minus-51 run differential, has lost six-straight games and is sitting at 1-9 over their last 10 with little to no hope of pulling themselves out of this funk. Ohtani had a shortened outing in Boston due to weather so he only went two innings in his last start and is plenty rested. His 0.86 ERA and 0.90 WHIP will shine bright against a Royals team that strikes out 25-percent of the time and has a league-worst .262 wOBA against righties. On the other side, the Royals are expected to use righty Taylor Clarke as an opener with lefty Ryan Yarbrough getting the bulk of the work. That’s just fine for us as the Angels are sitting on the fourth-highest wOBA against lefties (.369) and the fourth-highest wRC+ at 136. It’s another home team with too much juice on the money line so we’ll go for some action on the run line again.

Pick: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 Run Line (-135 on DK Sportsbook)

Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

White Sox starter Michael Kopech continues to be a bit of an enigma as we know he’s got great stuff, but he’s still having trouble harnessing it and the command issues are putting unnecessary guys on-base. He’s already walked 10 batters over three starts (15.2 innings) and has allowed 11 earned runs with seven home runs allowed. The moment he starts faltering, the Rays are going to capitalize. They are undefeated in 10 home games this season, they have a league-high .385 wOBA with a .252 ISO against righties this season and are averaging seven runs per game. They’ll use righty Calvin Faucher to open and hope to get three or four innings out of him before giving way to lefty Josh Fleming. That should actually work in our favor, as the White Sox have hit lefties better this season. We’re only looking for a couple of runs from Chicago as we expect the bulk of the damage to be done by the Rays, whether it’s Kopech or that White Sox bullpen that has the third-highest ERA in the majors.

Pick: White Sox/Rays over 8.5 runs (-110 on DK Sportsbook) 

*all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned