Game 1 of the American League Championship Series kicks off with a battle between the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees on Monday night. 

The Guardians won a thrilling Game 5 against the Detroit Tigers, being able to defeat the likely AL Cy Young award winner in Tarik Skubal thanks to a grand slam by trade deadline acquisition Lane Thomas.

The Yankees had little trouble getting to the ALCS as they defeated the Kansas City Royals in four games.

Game 1 sees the home team Yankees send out southpaw Carlos Rodon while the Guardians counter with Alex Cobb. Before giving our Guardians vs Yankees predictions, let's take a look at the top storylines and pitching matchups.

 

 

Cleveland Guardians: Jump Out To Early Lead

The Guardians had one of the best bullpens in the baseball in 2024, owning a league low 2.57 ERA with a closer in Emmanuel Clase that had a 0.61 ERA this season while leading the league in saves for the third straight season.

The goal for the Guardians in this series should be to keep their offense within striking distance and get to their bullpen as soon as they can if they hope to defeat the Yankees in this seven game series.

 

 

New York Yankees: Starting Pitching 

We know how good the Yankees lineup is. It's anchored by two MVP candidates including the likely MVP in Aaron Judge. 

The issues for the Yankees this season have been with the pitching. We saw Carlos Rodon get knocked around in his start against the Royals and we've seen Gerrit Cole at times also wilt under the pressure.

The Guardians lineup is good. They do not strikeout, the work counts and they have some guys with surprising power.

Again, we just saw them, in an elimination game, tag the likely American League Cy Young winner for five runs over six innings.

If the Yankees starting pitching can keep  the Guardians in check, their offense can get after the Guardians starters. 

 

 

Guardians vs Yankees Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

We’re about to break down our Guardians vs Yankees predictions, but first, here are the current Guardians vs Yankees odds, spreads, totals and betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook:

Run Line

  • Guardians +1.5 (-155)
  • Yankees -1.5 (+130)

Money Line

  • Guardians: +140
  • Yankees: -166

Total

  • 7.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

 

 

 

Guardians vs Yankees Starting Pitcher & Lineup

Alex Cobb, Cleveland Guardians

Cobb made just three total starts this season for the Guardians, going 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA. He made one postseason start for Cleveland, going 3.0 innings against the Tigers, allowing two runs on three hits in Game 3.

He will have his work cut out for him tonight as he faces a loaded Yankees lineup full of all-star caliber talent. The one saving grace he may have is the fact that the expectations aren't that high for Cobb and his job is really to just limit the damage so this game is close enough for the Guardians bullpen to give the Cleveland offense a chance to grab a lead.

Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees

It was an up and down season for Carlos Rodon who finished the year going 16-9 with a 3.96 ERA with 195 strikeouts over 175 innings.

His playoff debut for the Yankees this year was also one to forget, notable due to him striking out the side in the first inning and taunting the Royals only to get knocked out of the game after allowing four runs on seven hits over the next 2.2 innings.

This will not be an easy matchup for Rodon as the Guardians were a top 10 offense against left-handed pitching this season with just a 20% strikeout rate.

 

 

Guardians vs Yankees Predictions For NL Championship Series Game 1

Game 1 of this series is going to be quite interesting because the Yankees have the edge on paper, especially given the talent that is on the mound but there is no question that as we get later into this game the Guardians advantage is going to be in the bullpen.

If the Guardians can keep within striking distance with Alex Cobb on the mound then I can definitely see a scenario where the Cleveland bullpen comes in and shuts the door.

On the other hand, we could also see the Yankees jump out to a big lead early with Cobb getting knocked around as he labors to pitch his way through this Yankees lineup.

 

 

Guardians vs  Yankees: Guardians ML (+140 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

I'm rocking with the road team here in Game 1. I just do not trust Carlos Rodon in this matchup and while I full expect the Yankees to score runs off of Alex Cobb, my entire thought process is all about this game being close and being close late where the Guardians bullpen has the clear advantage in this series. A close game late and a Guardians rally will give them the Game 1 win.

 

 

 

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