UPDATED: Tuesday, March 26 at 10:17pm ET

The 2023 MLB season was capped off with the Texas Rangers beating the Arizona Diamondbacks in the World Series. It's no coincidence that the Rangers were anchored by key free agent signings from their past two off-seasons, including Nathan Eovaldi and World Series MVP Corey Seager.

As all 30 teams begin their respective journeys to win the 2024 World Series, free agent signings will again make all the difference. Our 2024 MLB Free Agent Tracker will cover everything from breaking news, signings and a list of the best available remaining free agents, to player predictions and the fantasy impact of each move.

The 2023-24 MLB free agent class is absolutely loaded, with the reigning NL Cy Young winner (Blake Snell) and AL MVP (Shohei Ohtani) both available. This class will change the face of baseball for the next few years - and it can change the face of your fantasy baseball teams, too.

So follow our 2024 MLB Free Agent Tracker for all of the news and signings, big and small, from the first signings at the Winter Meetings all the way through the latest signings in spring training. And, of course, for more in-depth coverage for the upcoming fantasy baseball season, be sure to check out the upcoming MLB Draft Guide or chat with our analysts in the MLB discord channels.

 

Without further ado, here's the updated list of 2024 MLB free agents and signings:

Pos
(Click to sort ascending)
Player
(Click to sort ascending)
Old Team
(Click to sort ascending)
New Team
(Click to sort ascending)
Breakdown
(Click to sort ascending)
SPShohei OhtaniLAALA(Updated 12/9): The biggest domino has fallen. Ohtani signs for $700M over the next 10 years to join the Dodgers. While he won't pitch in 2024, he should be ready to begin the year, and he'll now join a lineup that features Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Will Smith, amongst others. Ohtani has two MVP awards under his belt, and this Dodgers lineup should be the strongest supporting cast he's had in recent seasons, and perhaps ever. Ohtani was a fantasy force last season, hitting .304 with 44 home runs and 20 stolen bases, and over the last three years, he has a .379 OBP and .585 SLG. The elbow shouldn't be a major detractor to his offensive numbers in 2024, making him a surefire first round pick in fantasy baseball drafts. Sure, he can only be played at the UT spot, but 40+ home runs, 15+ stolen bases, and a sky-high OBP will play, regardless of position.
SPYoshinobu YamamotoFALA(Updated 12/22) The Dodgers continue their spending spree and add a potential fantasy ace to its rotation. Yamamoto has thrown at least 160 IP in three straight seasons, while putting forth 15+ wins and a sub-2.00 ERA in each of those seasons. He’s over a strikeout per innings for his career, and he has stuff that should translate well to the MLB. Yamamoto will have a great offense backing him, and he’s only 25 years old, not turning 26 until August of 2024. The right-hander has solid velocity on his fastball, with a splitter and curveball that will make batters look silly. He’ll need to adjust to the pitching schedule in the MLB, but he has a nasty pitch mix that should make him a top 25 starter in fantasy at the lowest.
SPBlake SnellSDSF(Updated 3/18) The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner finally inks a deal, signing a two-year deal with the Giants that includes an opt out after the first season. Snell was terrific in his Cy Young campaign last season, posting a 14-9 record with a 2.25 ERA across 180 IP. Naturally, he posted his best statistical season of his career and won some hardware, but did so while posting a career-high 13.3 percent walk rate and massive 86.7 percent strand rate. Snell will pitch with a good defense backing him in a pitcher friendly park, though that won’t fix his walk issues.Despite a 2.72 ERA over the last two seasons, he has a 3.17 FIP, 3.45 xFIP, and 3.69 SIERA. The veteran left-hander can miss bats with the best of them, and he’s posted a strikeout rate of at least 30 percent in each of the last six seasons. It might take him a bit to get ramped up, since he’s had zero spring training work to date, but the Giants land another frontline starter to give them a 1-2 punch of Logan Webb and Snell. Ideally, Snell can cut back on the walks a bit to not do some damage to your team’s ratios, but overall, this is a pretty solid landing spot for Snell for fantasy purposes. I don’t envision him repeating his numbers from last year, especially in the ERA department, but a 1.25 WHIP and a 30+ percent strikeout rate is about the status quo for Snell these days.
SPAaron NolaPHIPHIAfter his third straight season with at least 180 IP, Nola cashes in on a big time deal to stay with the Phillies. It was reported he turned down more money elsewhere to stay with the team that drafted him in the first round of the 2014 Draft. Nola’s 4.46 ERA in 2023 may not he the most impressive, but his 3.77 xERA, 4.03 FIP, and 3.63 xFIP indicate he may have been a bit unlucky. However, his 1.49 HR/9 was the highest mark of his career, as was his average exit velocity and barrel rate. While he was hit around a bit, he maintained excellent marks in terms of swings out of the zone, and his 11.8 SwStr% marks the seventh-straight season he was in the double digits. A strong postseason helped some forget a rough final 26.1 IP of the regular season, but Nola can be trusted as a low-end SP1 or high-end SP2 in 2024.
SPEduardo RodriguezDETARI(Updated 12/7): After reportedly nixing a trade to the Dodgers, Rodriguez will stick it to them again by going to the Diamondbacks, who also just so happen to reside in the NL West. After a rocky first season in Detroit, Rodriguez was phenomenal in 2023, posting a 13-9 record with a 3.30 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 152.2 IP. Compared to prior seasons, he used his four-seam fastball more frequently at the expense of his sinker, and really committed to his changeup. Rodriguez’s changeup posted a .233 BAA and 31.7 percent whiff rate in 2023, and per Baseball Savant’s Run Values metric, graded out as an above average pitch for the southpaw. Leaving the pitcher friendly confines of the American League Central are a talking point for sure, but he doesn’t lose much fantasy value by way of his new home park. Rodriguez feels like a guy who should record more strikeouts than he actually does, and maybe if he used his slider a bit more, that would actually happen. However, he should eat up innings in Arizona’s rotation this season, and with a steady dosage of ground balls, provide another quality season from a fantasy standpoint, thanks to a more potent offense backing him, leading him to more wins. If he pitches like he did last year, and stays healthy, there’s a world where Rodriguez wins 15 games with a sub-3.75 ERA. Think shades of 2019…
SPClayton KershawLALA(Updated 2/6) Kershaw comes back for yet another season with the Dodgers. The future Hall of Famer underwent surgery on his shoulder after the season, and Los Angeles will be without him on the mound until the latter half of the 2024 season. Kershaw went 13-5 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 24 regular season starts last season, and despite what seems like a yearly trip to the injured list at this point in his career, he’s posted an ERA below 3.00 in more seasons in his career than he hasn’t. His curveball gets a ton of love, but his slider just might be better, and last year, it resulted in a .167 BAA and 36.2 percent whiff rate. If your league has IL spots, you could draft-and-stash Kershaw for when he makes his debut later on in 2024. However, keep in mind that there are going to a lot of moving parts in his return, and the Dodgers are going to ensure everything they do has him fully healthy for October baseball. When on the mound, he’s still very, very reliable for fantasy managers, but injuries are taking a toll on Kershaw, so his return could be a bit slower than it might have been in his younger years.
SPMarcus StromanCHINYY(Updated 1/12) Stroman will average just under $19M the next two years in the Bronx, and there’s also a vesting option for a third year. After not pitching in 2020, Stroman logged 179 IP in 2021, but injuries have limited him to under 140 IP in each of the last two seasons. Over the last two seasons with the Cubs, he’s posted a 3.73 ERA (3.67 FIP) with a 1.20 WHIP and 13.1 K-BB%. His groundball rate rebounded last year, and his 57.1 percent ground ball rate was his highest mark since posting 62.1 percent back in 2018 with the Blue Jays! Through his first 16 starts, Stroman was dominant, posting a 2.28 ERA and 9-4 record. His final nine starts resulted in an 8.29 ERA, though he had a 4.23 FIP and 4.17 xFIP, and he did miss time down the stretch with a right hip issue. The veteran right-hander will look to recapture that first half magic from last year with the Yankees, and as long as he continues to be a ground ball machine, I wouldn’t worry about home runs becoming an issue in Yankee Stadium for him. He’ll need some good defense from the Yankees with all the ground balls he’ll induce, but the offense should give him plenty of runs, leading to wins. Stroman is a value at his current ADP, even with his average-at-best strikeout rate, but I’d expect his move to New York to inflate his ADP a bit. However, he’s still a solid fantasy arm that can help your ratios, but you’ll want to account for his strikeouts, or lack thereof, throughout your other arms.
SPLance LynnLASTLThe Cardinals were going to make a move, if not more, to help the rotation, and Lynn is the first domino to fall for them in their list of needs to address. Lynn was a workhorse last year, logging 183.2 IP across 32 starts, both of which were his highest marks since the 2019 season. However, his 2.16 HR/9, 10.4 percent barrel rate and 19 percent HR/FB ratio were uncharacteristically bad. While his ERA and BABIP were incredibly better in Los Angeles compared to Chicago, home runs were still an issue for him, and the strikeouts completely disappeared. His pitch mix changed a bit upon the move to LA, highlighted by the near-complete disappearance of his curveball, while spiking the use of his sinker, which was actually good quite in the final month of the regular season. The Cardinals’ home park should help Lynn out a bit, especially with left-handed power. For fantasy purposes, Lynn will be viewed as a bounce back candidate in 2024, as he goes to the NL Central and a pitcher-friendly park, with the hopes of proving that 2023 was an outlier.
SPSonny GrayMINSTLWhile his K/9 was below nine for the second year in a row, Gray was excellent in Minnesota in 2023, despite what his win-loss record says. Yes, he went 8-8, but that 2.79 ERA 2.69 BB/9, and 1.15 WHIP were excellent. His expected statistics indicate that his ERA should have been more in the mid-3’s, but that 2.83 FIP is right on par with his ERA. His 0.39 HR/9 was the lowest of his career, and his ground ball rate of 47.3 percent is better than last year’s 44.5 percent mark, and much closer to his career average that is up over 51 percent. Gray deployed a slightly different pitch mix in 2023 compared to recent years, as he dropped the usage on his sinker and curveball, opting to throw his sweeper and cutter more. He still uses his sinker and curveball a bit, but the sweeper became his number two, and was lethal against hitters, resulting in a .097 BAA, .135 xBA, and 41.3 percent whiff rate! In fact, per Baseball Savant’s Run Value metric, Gray’s sweeper was one of the 10-best pitches in baseball, and the best of its kind in the game. While I have some questions around the Cardinals giving him $25M per year, I understand that pitchers will likely command more than we may believe they are worth, and the hope for Gray is that the Cardinals continue to play solid defense behind him, and they bounce back after a tumultuous 2023 season that saw them vastly underperform. If the offense is there for him, Gray should be a relatively safe bet to reach 10+ wins for the first time since 2019, while helping your fantasy team with ratios. He can be drafted as an SP3 this season, and let’s hope for another year of good health, so that he can get to 170+ IP for the second straight season, which is actually something he hasn’t done since 2014 and 2015.
SPJordan MontgomeryTEXARI(Updated 3/25) Despite a 6-9 record as a member of the Cardinals, Montgomery posted a respectable 3.42 ERA, and then once he was traded to Texas, he posted a 4-2 record with a 2.79 ERA across 11 starts. Then, across 31 IP in the postseason, he logged a 2.90 ERA and 3-1 record, despite a measly 12.6 percent strikeout rate. Think what you want of Scott Boras, but Arizona pounced, and added a quality starter to an already formidable rotation. Eduardo Rodriguez has a bit of a lat issue, and Montgomery provides another proven arm to help steady the ship while E-Rod is out. Montgomery will need some time to build up his stamina, and while this isn’t the ideal offseason for a guy who logged a career high workload last year (219 IP between regular season and postseason), he should be a steady fantasy presence for a good Arizona team. The veteran southpaw will help your fantasy team’s ratios, and assuming he doesn’t take too long to get ramped up, he’s in line to best last year’s career-best 10 wins in a season. Is 12 wins and a 3.50 ERA too much to ask?
SPBrandon WoodruffMILMIL(Updated 2/19) Woodruff missed nearly four months of the 2023 season due a shoulder issue, but upon his return to the mound, he was solid. He posted a 1.67 ERA over his final four starts of the season, and he allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last nine starts. His changeup remained elite last year, posting a 38 percent whiff rate, and while he used his curveball less than recent years, it remained solid, notching a .182 BAA and 40.9 percent whiff rate. Offseason surgery will almost assuredly cost him all of 2024, but eyes will be back on the prize in 2025 for Woodruff.
SPLuis SeverinoNYYNYMSeverino was an ace with the Yankees for many years prior to his implosion in 2023. After pitching just 18 innings from 2019-2021, Severino posted a 7-3 record with a 3.18 ERA and 9.88 K/9 across 102 innings in 2022. Then, 2023 rolled around, and Severino logged a 6.65 ERA, 2.32 HR/9, and 10.4 percent barrel rate across 89.1 IP. Was it age and injury catching up to him? Perhaps, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the velocity of his heater. There’s some considerable risk here, but the reward is immense, especially if Severino can return to prime Severino. Over his final five starts last year, he did manage to post a 3.16 ERA and 50 percent ground ball rate, so maybe he was finally righting the ship. He did increase the usage of his cutter and sinker over the final two months of the year, not to mention increases nearly across the board on his spin rates, which was right around the time he started seeing better results on the mound. The Mets have a lot to do with their rotation still, but there are worse moves to make than taking a flier on Severino, who only turns 30 in February and gets a slight upgrade in terms of home park. I’m sure the team wanted the deal to be closer to $10M than the $13M they inked on paper, but to the Mets, what’s a couple of million dollars?
SPAlex WoodSFOAK(Updated 2/3) On a one-year deal, Wood provides a veteran presence with plenty of big league innings in the Oakland rotation. However, Wood has also missed time on the injured list in every season dating back to 2016, and he hasn’t pitched more than 150 innings in a season since 2018. He was limited to just 97.2 IP last year, as he missed time due to hamstring and back issues, and he actually made more appearances as a reliever (17) than as a starter (12). Last year, he posted a 6.08 ERA as a starter, compared to a 2.68 ERA and 1.27 WHIP as a reliever. His strikeout rate tumbled last year, but he was only a few percentage points off his career average, and while he used his changeup more last season, further development of that pitch, and maybe a bit more of his slider can help tick up his strikeout rate closer to 20 percent. While he’s a lock for innings in this rotation, he doesn’t miss a ton of bats, and wins will likely be few and far between pitching for Oakland. Tread carefully if you are drafting Wood for anything more than innings, as he’s had a tough past couple of seasons.
SPCarlos CarrascoNYMCLE(Updated 1/28) After a productive 2022 season, it went downhill for Carrasco in 2023. On top of a porous 3-8 record, he posted a 6.80 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, and his strikeout and walk rates trended in the wrong direction. As you can expect, he allowed a lot of hard contact, more contact overall, and his 10.9 percent swinging strike rate was his lowest since 2013! Furthermore, he was constantly behind hitters, as his 59 percent first pitch strike rate was his lowest since 2011, and he got worse the more times he worked through the lineup. Carrasco heads back to where his big league career began, and he signed a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. I’m not envisioning a good enough of a bounceback season for the soon-to-be 37 year old right-hander to be on your fantasy radar.
SPLucas GiolitoCLEBOS(Updated 3/5) Giolito hurt his elbow in spring training and his 2024 season is now in jeopardy to say the least. Tough blow to the Boston starting rotation. (Written 12/29) Let’s get this out of the way, first and foremost. Coming off an 8-15 season and his second year in a row with an ERA of at least 4.88, Giolito did quite good for himself here. While it’s a two-year deal, there’s an opt out after the 2024 season, effectively giving Giolito the beloved contract year narrative this year. He pitched for three teams last season and was bad with all of them, to be blunt. Home runs have always been a problem with Giolito but last year’s 2.0 HR/9 was off the charts, and his 41 home runs allowed trailed only Lance Lynn (44). His fastball was bludgeoned last season, so he’ll need to fix that.
SPKyle GibsonBALSTLAs a team, the Cardinals starting rotation had the second-lowest K/9 (6.92) and strikeout rate (17.4%) in Major League Baseball last season. Now, they fork over $12M to Gibson who had a 7.36 K/9 and 19.5 percent strikeout rate across 192 IP in 2023, the most he’s thrown in a season since 2018 (196.2 IP). He doesn’t miss bats, and he’s posted an ERA north of 4.70 in four of the last five seasons. He does generate a healthy number of ground balls, which allows him to keep the ball in the park, but his ground ball rate has dipped below 50 percent for two straight seasons now. Left-handed hitters crushed Gibson in 2023, and his production deteriorated as the season went on, but after injuries have ravaged the St. Louis rotation in recent seasons, it’s understandable that they have prioritized some more durable arms thus far in free agency. Gibson is a low-end fantasy starter at best, who may get some streamer appeal as the year goes on in the right matchups if he’s pitching well.
SPKenta MaedaMINDETMaeda missed all of 2022 due to undergoing Tommy John surgery, but prior to that season, he was a reliable arm that posted over a strikeout per inning, and was good for 120+IP. His role fluctuated a bit with the Dodgers after the 2016 season, but he worked primarily as a starter in Minnesota. After a bad start against the Yankees in April and missing the next two months, Maeda posted a 6-4 record with a 3.36 ERA (3.93 FIP), 10.49 K/9 and 2.55 BB/9 across 88.1 innings of work. Maeda’s pitch mix is led by his splitter, which he featured more in the latter months of the season, and he even opted to use his four-seamer more at the expense of his slider usage, which dropped each of the month of the season upon his return. Home runs were a bit of an issue for him last year, largely in part to the unhelpful combination of a career high fly ball rate and hard hit rate, but his home park may help mitigate a few home runs, which would help fantasy managers immensely. The veteran right-hander continues to generate a healthy number of swings out of the zone, and he’s now posted a swinging strike rate of at least 11.5 percent in every season of his career. If the Tigers offense doesn’t improve, run support could be a bit of a problem, but he’s going to a good division for pitchers, making him a somewhat intriguing flier in the back end of your fantasy rotation.
SPWade MileyMILMILUpdated 12/4: Miley declined his half of the mutual option earlier in November, but he’s now returned to Milwaukee for another season. Across 23 starts last year, spanning 120.1 IP, he posted a 9-4 record at the young age of 36, while posting the lowest ERA of his career (3.14) since his first stint in Milwaukee in 2018 (2.57). He won’t help fantasy managers whatsoever in the strikeout department, meaning that you are hoping for a solid ERA and a reliable amount of innings from the veteran southpaw. Last year’s 16.1 percent strikeout rate was his lowest in the last half-decade, and I can’t help but stare at his 4.36 xERA. He allowed some higher batted ball metrics than one would like, and his fly ball rate has been increasing year over year. Home runs got to him a bit last year, and if he continues to allow fly balls, the elevated hard contact rates are going to push his ERA closer to where his FIP and expected metrics reside. Miley’s spot is safe in the rotation, as Milwaukee needs some steady presences there, but regression is in store for Miley in 2024, as his profile doesn’t lend itself to a third straight season with an ERA under 3.50, especially when his FIP hasn’t below 3.50 in a season since 2012.
SPErick FeddeWSHCWS(Updated Dec. 6) A $15M deal is pretty good for Fedde, considering that prior to going to the KBO last year, he was 21-33 with a 5.41 ERA in the MLB with the Washington Nationals. I won’t sugarcoat it. He was great in the KBO, going 20-6, striking out well over a batter per inning, and hardly walking anyone. He was a strikeout and ground ball machine over there, and that’s a recipe for success no matter where you play. Now, the question is whether or not he can replicate that in the MLB. He’s practically free in drafts, so he’s worth a late round flier in deeper formats, but I’m going to base my thoughts off his six years in the MLB, compared to the one year in the KBO. While I think he will be better than what he was in 2021 and 2022, thanks to some newfound confidence, he still profiles to be an average starter at best, with an ERA likely in the mid-4s. It’s a good division for pitchers, so that should help.
SPSeth LugoSDKC(Updated 12/12) Lugo wanted to get back into the rotation after a handful of seasons primarily as a reliever, and he was great for San Diego and fantasy managers alike. He logged a career high 146.1 IP, while posting a 3.57 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 27.7 percent CSW%. Lugo used his changeup a bit more last year than in years past, but his ground ball rate remained north of 45 percent, marking the third time in the last four seasons he achieved that feat. Kauffman Stadium grades out a bit more hitter friendly than Petco Park, especially in terms of hits overall, but not for home runs. Strikeouts are down in that park, too, but fortunately, he might be going to the division that has been super friendly to pitchers for what seems years, providing optimism in Lugo maintaining a strikeout rate in the low-to-mid twenties. He’ll need some help from Kansas City’s offense to rack up wins, and there are safer bets in fantasy baseball than banking on a 34-year-old righty coming off a career high workload. However, as a starter, Lugo provides a safe floor for fantasy managers, as he doesn’t hand out walks, should keep your team’s ratios in check, and to his credit, 17 of his 26 starts were at least six innings, and he completed five innings in 22 of 26 last season.
SPTyler MahleMINTEX(Updated 12/14) The Rangers are hoping that Mahle returns to full health following Tommy John surgery, and if that’s the case, this contract could turn out to be a bargain over the next couple seasons. He went under the knife in May of 2023, so a return sometime in mid-to-late summer looks likely for the right-hander. He was limited to just 25.2 IP last season, so we likely can’t glean much from the year, but he did post a 3.16 ERA with an excellent 4.9 percent walk rate. Compared to 2022, he brought the usage of his slider back, and that pitch was good for a .219 BAA and 25.5 percent whiff rate last year. Mahle’s strikeout rate has remained pretty consistent over the past couple of years, but he is getting a bit of a park downgrade going from Target Field to Globe Life Field. Overall, he’ll be cheap on draft day, so if your league has IL spots, you could take a late round flier on him or pick him up, but coming back from a serious surgery like Tommy John is far from a sure thing. If Mahle and Jacob deGrom return to full health from the surgery, the Texas rotation could be a formidable force.
SPMichael WachaSDKC(Updated 12/15) Of pitchers with at least 250 IP over the last two seasons, Wacha is one of 15 pitchers to have won 25 games, and his 3.27 ERA over the last two seasons is the 22nd-best mark in Baseball, better than the likes of Spencer Strider, George Kirby, and Loga Gilbert. While he’s pitched at least 124 IP in each of the last three seasons, he hasn’t surpassed 135 IP since 2017. Wacha has relied on his changeup, and last year was the first time where he threw it more than any other pitch in his repertoire, resulting in a .207 BA (.189 xBA) and 35.9 percent whiff rate. He continues to use his sinker more as well, and hopefully it can improve upon last year’s 37.9 percent ground ball rate, as he could really use a ground ball machine in his pitch mix. Kauffman Stadium plays more favorably to hitters than Petco Park, but he was successful in Fenway in 2022, so I wouldn’t be overly concerned about the home park. With an opt-out after the first year, this is effectively a prove-it deal for Wacha, and he should really enjoy pitching in the American League Central.
SPChris FlexenCOLCWS(Updated 12/29) Following a borderline dominant 2020 year in the KBO, Flexen was solid, all things considered, in 2021 and 2022 for the Seattle Mariners. However, the train came off the track in 2023, as he served up a 2.20 HR/9 across 102.1 IP, not to mention a 1.67 WHIP and a career-high 9.4 percent barrel rate. Despite having seven pitches in his repertoire, per Baseball Savant, he’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher against right-handed hitters, and righties slashed .345/.400/.625 against him last season. Flexen could win one of the back end spots in the team’s rotation with a strong camp, but he could be the de facto sixth starter. Regardless of his role, he doesn’t have a profile worth buying into for fantasy purposes, as he’s pitching for a bad team and doesn’t do enough in terms of strikeouts or ratio improvement to warrant one of your precious roster spots.
SPFrankie MontasNYYCIN(Updated 12/29) The Reds are taking a $16M gamble that Montas will be healthy enough to give them quality innings in 2024, and maybe even return to the quality arm he was in Oakland, especially the 2019 or 2021 versions of himself. He’s had issues with his right shoulder most notably over the past two seasons, which limited him to just 41 regular season innings with the New York Yankees. When healthy, Montas has a sinker and splitter that will generate a ton of ground balls, which are two weapons he should utilize to keep him out of harm's way in Great American Ball Park. He has a career 24.2 percent strikeout rate, which is solid, but when you look at some of his other metrics, i.e. his swinging strike rate and O-Swing rate, there seems to be some meat left on the bone in the strikeout department. It’s going to come down to health with Montas, as he’s pitched in more than 100 innings just twice since entering the bigs back in 2015. It’s an expensive gamble for the Reds, but sometimes a one-year prove it deal is exactly what the doctor orders for a player with health concerns. Montas is practically free in drafts, so he’s worth a shot in the later rounds of deeper formats, as the Reds will hope he can provide some stability in its rotation.
SPZach PlesacCLELAA(Updated 12/31) The 2023 season was one to forget for Plesac, as he spent the majority of the season down in Triple-A. The team sent him down to Triple-A after he posted a 7.59 ERA and 1.97 WHIP through his first five starts of the season. Despite his 3-12 record, he was somewhat serviceable, posting a 4.31 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, though his dearth of strikeouts tank his overall fantasy appeal. He should compete for a spot in the starting rotation, and with a strong spring, he could win of the final spots. However, he’s not a big strikeout guy and won’t help your ratios too much, making him nothing more than a late round flier in AL-only formats.
SPDakota HudsonSTLCOL(Updated 1/5) After spending the first six seasons of his career with the Cardinals, Hudson will head to Colorado, with the likelihood of occupying one of the team’s final spots in the rotation. Heading to Coors is terrifying for a pitcher and their fantasy value, and while I think Hudson will feel some of those effects, home runs have never been a big issue for him. He’s a ground ball machine, and has only allowed a fly ball rate north of 30 percent one time (2020) in his entire career. You can’t hit home runs on the ground! He’s a sinker-slider guy, and his fastball even does a solid job inducing ground balls, likely because he keeps it in the lower third of the zone. However, with all that in mind, his fantasy value is nearly nonexistent. While Coors Field won’t decimate him like it can to other pitchers, he doesn’t do enough otherwise to warrant any serious fantasy consideration. His strikeout rate has dropped each of the last three seasons, and last season, he posted a 12.7 percent strikeout rate! His swinging strike rate did manage to jump to 8.6 percent, his highest mark in the past three seasons, but of pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched last year, his 92 percent zone contact rate was the fourth-highest, and his 81.8 percent contact rate overall was the 20th-lowest. He’s a pitch to contact guy who doesn’t miss bats heading to Coors Field. Draft accordingly.
SPSean ManaeaSFNYM(Updated 1/7) It’s a two-year deal for Manaea, but he can opt out after the 2024 season, so, he gets himself an opportunity to cash in more if he pitches well this year for the Mets. At first glance, his marks from last season don’t look all that impressive, as he posted a 4.44 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across 117.2 IP. However, the Giants yanked him back and forth between being a starter and a reliever, though his performances as a reliever spark some optimism. His velocity was up a tick, and his sweeper last year posted a .140 BAA and 35.1 percent whiff rate. He ended the year on a high note, posting a 2.61 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his final 51.2 IP, and across his final four starts, he posted a .220 AVG, 0.92 WHIP and 2.25 ERA! He should immediately slot in the team’s rotation, and he’s a nice bounce back pitcher to target later in drafts this season. I like the landing spot, I like what he showed down the stretch, and his sweeper gives him another weapon to put away opposing hitters. He’s a pitcher I’m looking to target in the later rounds.
SPShota ImanagaFACHI(Updated 1/10) It’s widely considered that Imanaga would have gone for a boatload more money if there were fewer concerns about his health. He had shoulder surgery a couple of years ago that gives some cause for concern for long-term durability, which is likely why you see such a complicated deal for an established arm. Imanaga is no spring chicken, as he’ll turn 31 in September, but he was a very accomplished pitcher overseas, posting a 3.18 ERA across eight seasons. Coming over to the states, he has two plus pitches, but like most pitchers in the majors, he’ll need one of his other pitches to step up. It’s really, really difficult to be great with just two plus pitches as a starter. If he can develop an at least average tertiary offering, he can be an effective starter, because he doesn’t put himself in bad spots by handing out free passes. He lives around the plate, and hopefully he can induce a lot of ground balls with his splitter! I’m wary of where his strikeout rate will sit in his first year as the majors, but he’s a serviceable back end fantasy starter, but keep a close eye on his pitch mix, and if he has anything effective beyond his fastball and splitter.
SPJames PaxtonBOSLA(Updated 1/23) After making just six starts between 2020-2022, the veteran southpaw posted a 4.50 ERA (3.82 xERA, 4.68 FIP) across 19 starts with the Red Sox last season. He struck out over one batter per inning, while registering a 12.7 percent swinging strike rate. Paxton ended the year on a rough note, allowing 16 earned runs over his last 9.2 IP of work, but prior to that, he had a 3.34 ERA and 9.69 K/9 through his first 16 starts of the season, going 7-3 in the process. Paxton isn’t exactly what the Los Angeles rotation needs, considering there are a lot of questions about workload and durability in the team’s rotation to begin with. However, the team will likely use a six-man rotation, so could that help Paxton stay healthy? The Dodgers are surely hoping so. When healthy, Paxton has a curveball and changeup that can still miss bats with the best of them, though he’s largely a two-pitch guy to LHH. I expect Paxton’s ADP to increase a bit since he’s going to the Dodgers, but health willing, he’ll be in a good position to help fantasy managers. He’s an interesting late round flier, but just know he’s good for at least one trip to the IL any given season.
SPSpencer TurnbullDETPHI(Updated 2/12) Turnbull had a solid showing in 2021, following a bounceback 2020 season, but ultimately ended up missing all of 2022, and then was limited to just seven starts last year before a neck injury cost him the rest of the season. After not pitching at all in 2022, Turnbull had a 7.26 ERA across seven starts last year, but most notably, 15 walks across those seven starts, resulting in a 10.3 percent walk rate. After multiple years as a starter in Detroit, Turnbull will be a long reliever in Philly, but he could make a spot start if needed. His arsenal runs six pitches deep, and he’s always generated a healthy number of ground balls, but he’s never been prolific at missing bats or minimizing hard contact. He’s a solid depth arm who should give the Phillies some innings this year in a hybrid starter/reliever role, but the innings won’t be as fruitful for fantasy managers.
SPMichael LorenzenPHITEX(Updated 3/21) Prior to heading to the Phillies at the deadline, Lorenzen was solid for the Tigers, posting a 3.58 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across 105.2 IP. Unlike in Detroit, Lorenzen wasn’t used exclusively as a starter in Philadelphia, and across 47.1 IP, he logged a 5.51 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and one save. He really struggled as a reliever last year, posting an 8.31 ERA in a very small sample size. However, at least to begin the season, with all of the injuries in the Texas rotation, if Lorenzen can get ramped up quickly enough, there’s a very real chance he holds down the fort as the team’s fifth starter until the likes of the team’s big-name arms return to full health. Reportedly, he worked up to 70 pitches on his own earlier in the week, so perhaps he isn’t too far behind those who have been in camp, all things considered. A dearth of strikeouts suppresses his fantasy value a bit, but hard to argue against the offense that will be backing him when he does take the rubber, especially if you just need some innings and some reliable ratios.
CMitch GarverTEXSEA(Updated 12/27) After forming a 1-2 punch with Jonah Heim behind the dish for Texas in 2023, Garver will head to Seattle, in an attempt to replicate that with Cal Raleigh. Garver hit for both average and power last year, as his .270 average and .500 SLG across 87 games were excellent for fantasy managers. He punished left-handed pitching last year, to the tune of a .938 OPS, but he also posted a hearty .267 ISO versus righties. While he made a lot of hard contact, the biggest advancements were in his quantity of contact metrics, as he pushed his contact rate up to 79.6 percent, cut his swinging strike rate down to eight percent, and posted an O-Swing rate of just 21 percent! Given the state of affairs of the Seattle lineup, Garver figures to open the year as the primary DH for the Mariners, while catching on the days where the team opts to use Raleigh in the DH spot.
CGary SánchezSDMIL(Updated 2/8) Despite a lower batting average and OBP, which we should come to expect from Sanchez at this point, he was a revelation for San Diego last year, as he hit 19 home runs with a .500 SLG across 72 games for the Padres. In fact, his 12.63 AB/HR was the best amongst catcher with at least 250 plate appearances last season! The power is known with Sanchez, and he’ll run into 20+ home runs over a full season with relative ease for the most part. However, he’s a liability in terms of batting average and OBP, so fantasy managers have to stomach that. He won’t be the starting catcher in Milwaukee as William Contreras has that locked down, but Sanchez should serve as the backup, and potentially serve as the DH against left-handed pitchers on occasion, as Milwaukee’s outfield features multiple left-handed hitters. Just how many ABs will Sanchez receive is the question, and will largely determine his overall fantasy value. In NL-only formats, he’s worthy of a dart throw in the later rounds, because if he can carve out a role where he is playing more often than he isn’t, he should be fine from a power standpoint at American Family Field.
CAustin HedgesTEXCLE(Updated 12/10) At this point in his career, Hedges is what he is. He’s an excellent defensive catcher, but offensively, he won’t help you much. In 2017 and 2018, it looked like he was going to be a formidable option in fantasy formats, but since then, it just hasn’t been the case. He’s hit below the Mendoza line in five straight seasons, and during this five-year run, he has a 29.1 percent hard hit rate and .228 wOBA. Bo Naylor is the team’s primary catcher, but Hedges will be the backup, and provide excellent defensive metrics, as well as help out the pitchers. From a fantasy perspective, even if Naylor were to miss time, Hedges doesn’t do enough with the bat to warrant a roster spot.
CYasmani GrandalCWSPIT(Updated 2/12) In 118 games last season for the White Sox, the veteran posted a .234/.309/.339 slash line with eight home runs, 33 runs scored, and 33 RBI. Grandal is just two years removed from a big 2021 campaign where he hit 23 home runs and posted a .420 OBP across just 93 games. His quality of contact metrics are slipping, and his 4.7 percent barrel rate and 87.9 mph average exit velocity were both the lowest marks he’s posted in a season since these numbers were tracked. His walk rate slipped a bit, likely due to the highest chase rate in the past half-decade, and while he isn’t the defender he once was, he should still help out the Pittsburgh arms a bit with his framing. He may not help a ton with throwing runners out, but he adds a veteran presence behind the dish, and could potentially help with the development of Henry Davis. This also means that fantasy managers may have to wait a bit longer for Davis to become eligible behind the dish, but hopefully the Pirates still give Davis the majority of the starts behind the dish.
CTom MurphySEASF(Updated 12/18) From the catcher spot last season, the Giants had the second-highest strikeout rate, 10th-lowest average, and seventh-lowest wOBA. Is Murphy an elite offensive option? I wouldn’t say elite, but he hit eight home runs with 12 doubles and a .290/.335/.538 slash line across 47 games last year. He missed time last year with a thumb sprain and even if he was healthy, Cal Raleigh dominated the playing time behind the dish for Seattle. Patrick Bailey, Blake Sabol, and Joey Bart are still around, but Murphy getting just over $4M per year means he’ll be on the big league roster in some capacity. Murphy will give the Giants a big league ready catcher, and while the park isn’t overly favorable, we’ve seen Murphy run red hot in spurts, highlighted by his 18 home runs and .535 SLG back in 2019. Yes, that was a few years ago, but even last year, eight home runs across 47 games is a 20+ homer pace for a full season. If Murphy wins the job out of camp, he could be an intriguing sleeper behind the dish.
CCurt CasaliCINMIA(Updated 2/14) Casali inked a minors deal with the Marlins that includes an invitation to spring training, opening the door for the veteran backstop to earn a spot on the big league roster. Nick Fortes and Christian Bethancourt are projected to be the two catchers on the big league roster, and Casali’s offensive profile likely doesn’t do anything to force his way onto the roster. He’s been about average defensively the past couple of seasons, but last year, a 1.7 percent barrel rate and 26.7 percent hard hit rate were sixable dropoffs from years past. Is Father Time catching up to Casali? He couldn’t hit non-fastballs to save his live last year, and even with a strong spring, he doesn’t figure to have a prominent role, let alone being a reliable source of production for fantasy.
CVictor CaratiniMILHOU(Updated Dec. 6) Houston was going to address the backup catcher spot during free agency, and Caratini just so happens to be that guy. Despite hitting .259 last year with Milwaukee, he won’t provide all that much with the bat, seeing as he’s a career .236 hitter with a .120 ISO. He’ll make some contact, but nothing will really jump off the page. However, I will give him some credit, as he posted a career high average exit velocity last season (91.3 mph) and hard hit rate (44.7%). However, Yainer Diaz is this team’s starting catcher, and Caratini doesn’t figure to see steady at-bats on days where he isn’t giving Diaz a breather. Solid move in reality for the Astros, as Caratini is solid behind the dish in terms of receiving and framing pitches.
CMartín MaldonadoHOUCWS(Updated 12/27) While playing in less than 130 games each of the past three seasons, Maldonado has managed to hit at least 12 home runs in each season, including 15 in each of the past two. However, his strikeout rate peaked at 34.2 percent last year, and he’s hit .183 over the last three seasons with a 66 wRC+. While heralded for his defense, his defensive metrics took a bit of a slide last season, highlighted by his first percentile framing metric (per Baseball Savant). He could win the starting job for the White Sox, but he hits lefties far better than righties, and his batting average is a massive drain for fantasy managers.
CJacob StallingsMIACOL(Updated 1/5) Stallings is a solid backup backstop for the Rockies for the 2024 season. He won’t wow with the bat, and I’m unsure if even Coors Field can elevate his offensive profile. Over the last three seasons, he’s hit 15 home runs, posting a 64.07 AB/HR. To his credit, he did post the highest hard hit rate of his career, but it came at the expense of the second-highest ground ball rate (48.3%) of his career. Stallings hit just .191 last year, though I think he’ll fare better in 2024, as his plate discipline metrics are actually solid for the most part. Again, I don’t think Coors Field unleashes the offensive beast in Stallings, but he’s not posting a .249 BABIP again in 2024, so his numbers should be better. He’ll operate behind Elias Diaz as the team’s backup catcher.
1BRhys HoskinsPHIMIL(Updated 1/24) A torn ACL cost Hoskins all of his 2023 season, but he found himself in a great spot for 2024 with the Brewers. It’s effectively a prove-it year for Hoskins who can opt out after the 2024 season, and in the last two seasons we saw Hoskins, he slashed .246/.333/.489 with 57 home runs and 62 doubles across 263 games. American Family Field actually can be quite lucrative for right-handed power, and Hoskins has no shortage of that. The veteran first baseman has posted a double-digit barrel rate in each of the last three seasons, and in 2020 and 2021, he had an xSLG north of .500! He saw his fly ball rate decrease to a career low 41.7 percent in 2022, but his career mark sits at 48.4 percent, so I’d expect some regression to the mean in 2024 for Hoskins. Hoskins is joining a solid Milwaukee lineup, which should help those counting stats, and he’s going to flirt with 30 home runs again in 2024. I’d expect a little bit of rust earlier, but from then on, it should be status quo for Hoskins, i.e. a lot of power for fantasy managers with a .240-.255 batting average and double-digit walk rate.
1BCarlos SantanaMILMIN(Updated 2/3) Santana spent time with Pittsburgh and Milwaukee last season, and across 146 total games, he slashed .240/.318/.429 with 23 home runs, 33 doubles, 78 runs scored, 86 RBI, and six stolen bases! All six stolen bases came during his time with Pittsburgh, but he really enjoyed his time in Milwaukee from a power perspective (11 HR, .459 SLG in 52 games with MIL). When with the Brewers, he demolished left-handed pitching, to the tune of a .973 OPS. Even as he continues to age and his quality of contact metrics slowly decrease, his plate discipline has remained strong, and in 2023, he posted an 82 percentile strikeout rate, and 76th percentile walk rate. He should have a prominent role when facing lefties, but could see some ABs against right-handers, depending on how Alex Kirilloff holds up. He becomes viable in AL-only formats, though he’s more valuable in leagues that value OBP.
1BChristopher CronLAABOS(Updated 3/1) After a few seasons in Colorado, Cron went to the Angels at the end of July, and honestly, that was the last we really heard of him in 2023. After hitting 11 home runs and slugging .476 with the Rockies, he hit just .200 in 15 games with the Angels. The power-hitting first baseman inked a minor league deal with the Red Sox, but with Triston Casas serving as the everyday first baseman, Cron’s best path to playing time at the big league level would be as the team’s DH, if they were to encounter injuries in its outfield. Cron has a career .813 OPS against left-handed pitching, and he’s posted a .483 SLG over the last three years. He could be an interesting pickup midseason for some pop if he were to see regular ABs, but that’s far from a guarantee.
1BGarrett CooperSDCHI(Updated 2/25) After a year where Cooper hit a career-best 17 home runs and 61 RBI, he inks a minor league deal with the Chicago Cubs. His strikeout rate was closer to 30 percent than it had been in year’s past, and 6.8 percent walk rate was the lowest in his career where he played in more than 30 games. More fly balls and harder contact helped fuel the power output in 2023, but he left the zone more than ever before, and his 14.8 percent SwStr% was his highest since 2018. His current outlook for regular ABs in Chicago is going to be tricky, but he could be viewed as the platoon partner with Michael Busch at first base. For his career, Cooper has an .816 OPS and 120 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
1BRowdy TellezMILPIT(Updated 12/12) Another offseason, another veteran first baseman heads to Pittsburgh. After a monster 2022 campaign where Tellez hit 35 home runs and posted a .461 SLG across 153 games, his 2023 season didn’t enjoy the same results. His strikeout rate increased, his hard contact and related metrics tumbled, and his 13.1 percent HR/FB ratio was the second-lowest mark of his entire career. Despite his strikeout rate increasing, he posted a career low 7.6 percent swinging strike rate, career best 80.1 percent contact rate, and the lowest O-Swing rate of his entire career! He cannot hit lefties, so he’ll play on the larger side of a platoon at first base for Pittsburgh. PNC Park gives him a slight upgrade to his home park, but if his hard contact metrics don’t return to his 2021 and 2022 marks, it ultimately won’t matter. He’s a late round source of cheap power at best heading into fantasy baseball drafts.
1BDominic SmithWSHCHI(Updated 2/19) Smith got a full run of playing time in Washington last season, slashing .254/.326/.366 with 12 home runs, 57 runs scored, and 46 RBI across 153 games. He sacrificed some points off his batting average for more power after the All-Star break, and he posted a measly .588 OPS against left-handed pitching last season. Perhaps most impressive from his offensive profile last season was that while he maintained a solid walk rate, he dropped his strikeout rate to 15.5 percent. Prior to last year, his lowest strikeout rate was 22.3 percent back in 2019! However, unlike last year with Washington, Smith doesn’t have a regular role with the Cubs, and that’s even if he makes the big league roster. He isn’t someone you need to have on your radar at this juncture.
1BJoseph VottoCINTOR(Updated 3/8) Votto surely isn’t the same player he once was, but he still gets on base a healthy amount, and he provides a much needed left-handed bat in the Toronto lineup. It was a right-handed dominant lineup, and Votto’s thump from the left-handed side will certainly help Toronto. Despite Votto hitting just .204 over the last two seasons, he’s still walking over 11 percent of the time, and he has a .317 OBP over the aforementioned stretch. Votto has hit lefties for a better average over the last two seasons, and in 2023, he actually posted a .289 ISO and .897 OPS versus southpaws! Votto will have a tough time cracking the Toronto lineup on a regular basis, especially with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Justin Turner handling first base and DH duties respectively.
2BWhit MerrifieldTORPHI(Updated 2/17) In 145 games with the Blue Jays in 2023, Merrifield slashed .272/.318/.382 with 11 home runs, 66 runs scored, and 26 stolen bases. His 10 caught stealing attempts tied for the most he’s had in a season in his entire career, and his sprint speed was in the 85th percentile or lower for the second straight season. Merrifield isn’t getting any younger, but he still makes a ton of contact, albeit underwhelming quality of contact metrics. He tends to fare better against right-handed pitching, but he’s no slouch against lefties either. His versatility will be of great benefit to the Phillies in 2024, though the majority of his playing time figures to come against lefties at one of the corner outfield spots, likely left field. If the Phillies were to catch the injury bug, Merrifield could be an intriguing fantasy add, as he’s shown that he can rack up stolen bases at a good clip and hit for a solid batting average.
2BAdam FrazierBALKC(Updated 1/27) While his numbers don’t jump off the page, Frazier was quietly a key piece for the Orioles last year, and fantasy managers in AL-only setups as well. Across 141 games, Frazier slashed .240/.300/.396 with 13 home runs, 59 runs scored, 60 RBI, and 11 stolen bases. He’s never been a guy to make a lot of hard contact, highlighted by his career 2.0 percent barrel rate and 25.3 percent hard hit rate, and his bat-to-ball skills are slipping at his advanced age. His contact rate dipped to a career low 82 percent last year, while his swinging strike rate jumped to a career high 8.6 percent. He’ll provide a veteran presence to the Kansas City team, though his versatility will likely have him operating out of a utility role off the bench. He’s an injury away from regular at-bats in this lineup, but until that occurs, he’s off the fantasy radar.
2BTony KempOAKCIN(Updated 2/25) Aside from his 15 stolen bases last season, Kemp didn’t give fantasy owners much to be excited about. His .303 OBP was far more palatable than his .209 batting average, and he only hit five home runs with 42 runs scored. He does a great job staying in the strike zone and making contact, but overall, his offensive profile is underwhelming. He heads to Cincy on a minor league deal, and his versatility could help Cincinnati if they were to catch the injury bug, as Kemp can play in the outfield or at second base. He won’t be much of a fantasy factor, especially with the ample depth Cincy currently has in its infield
3BMatt ChapmanTORSF(Updated 3/2) In his second season with Toronto, Chapman slashed .240/.330/.424 with 17 home runs, 66 runs scored, and 54 RBI across 140 games. While his power output was down in terms of his home run total, his 39 doubles were the second-most he’s put forth in a season, and his .240 average was his highest since 2019, which was arguably the best year of his career. He’s still an excellent defender, even if some of the metrics are down from year’s past, and he’s an impact bat at the hot corner for the Giants. The veteran third baseman posted a .307 average and .890 OPS against left-handed pitching last season, and a slow second half took some of the shine off a solid first half of the season (.204 ISO, .807 OPS in first half). Chapman has multiple opt outs in this deal, and he’ll be a regular in the San Francisco lineup, likely relegating J.D. Davis to platoon duty somewhere else. It’s not a great home park for power production, but there are some good parks in that division, and Chapman is certainly no stranger to hard contact (48.1 percent hard hit rate for his career).
1BJeimer CandelarioCHICIN(Updated 12/7): Candelario opened the 2023 season in impressive fashion, slashing .258/.342/.481 with 16 home runs in 99 games for the Nationals. He was then traded at the deadline to the Chicago Cubs, and he took a bit of a step back there, hitting just.234 with six home runs over his final 41 games of the season. He posted a career high contact rate in 2023, and the Reds will be hoping that they can get the first half of 2023 version of Candelario. Candelario gets a bump in terms of park value, as he’ll be going to Great American Ball Park, which we know is one of the best hitters parks in the game. Candelario should see a good number of at-bats at first base following the departure of Joey Votto, and if the Reds want to get Jonathan India some looks at first base, too, Candelario can easily move into the DH spot. With no significant split disadvantages and a $15M contract, the Reds expect Candelario to be an everyday contributor to its lineup, likely hitting in or right around the heart of the order.
3BGio UrshelaLAADET(Updated 2/22) A left pelvis fracture in the middle of June ended Urshela’s 2023 season early, and through 62 games, he was putting together a quality stat line. Despite hitting just two home runs with 22 runs scored, 24 RBI, and a .374 SLG across 214 at-bats, he was hitting a respectable .299. Urshela was mashing left-handed pitching, to the tune of a .373 average and .867 OPS, though his .259 xBA overall and 3.9 percent barrel rate (lowest since 2017) take some of the shine off those numbers. With a strong spring, Urshela could win a starting gig for the Tigers, likely at third base. The Tigers do have other options that hit left-handed pitching quite well, a la Andy Ibanez, but Urshela has been a reliable hitter and average defender over the past couple of years. He’ll provide subpar power numbers for a corner infielder, but he could help your team’s batting average a bit in AL-only setups.
DHJustin TurnerBOSTOR(Updated 1/30) Turner will stay in the American League East after a productive 2023 season with the Red Sox. He slashed .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs, 86 runs scored, and 96 RBI across 146 games. His 96 RBI were a career high for him, and he continues to make a ton of contact at the dish. In fact, his 91 percent Z-Contact rate was the first time since 2018 he eclipsed the 90 percent threshold! Turner will bring a steady, veteran presence to the Blue Jays lineup, and while the majority of his time should be spent as the team’s designated hitter, he could play at either corner infield spot in a pinch. The Blue Jays still need a left-handed power bat in its lineup, but Turner should have plenty of RBI opportunities with the likes of George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting in front of him. Expect his ADP to rise in the coming days following this move.
3BMike MoustakasLAACWS(Updated 2/15) Across 112 games with the Rockies and Angels last season, Moustas hit 12 home runs with a .247/.293/.392 slash line, while driving in 48 runners. His six percent walk rate was his lowest mark since 2017, and his 5.7 percent barrel rate was tied for his lowest in the past nine seasons. A rough last two months of the season sunk his numbers a bit, but it’s not like they were overly impressive from the beginning. The veteran infielder posted a seventh percentile xBA and 11th percentile xSLG. He signed a minor league deal with the White Sox, but a strong spring could earn him a roster spot on the big league club as a backup corner infielder.
3BNick SenzelCINWSH(Updated 2/5): I really like this move for Washington. It’s a low risk, high-ish reward signing for the talented, yet often hurt Senzel. Despite a yearly trip or two to the injured list, he appeared in 100+ games in back-to-back seasons for Cincinnati, and last year, he hit 13 home runs with a .399 SLG across 301 at-bats. Senzel demolished left-handed pitching last year, to the tune of a .347 average, 1.008 OPS, and .271 ISO. While he’s a career .286 hitter against southpaws, he’s hit right-handed pitching at just a .219 clip. Senzel can play all over the field, so while his super-utility role increases his chances at playing more often, he figures to be the everyday third baseman to begin the year for Washington. He gets a park downgrade, but regardless of where he’s playing, he will crush left-handed pitching, and will likely be a popular DFS play throughout the season on those days.
3BEduardo EscobarLAATOR(Updated 2/17) After hitting 20+ home runs in 2021 and 2022, Escobar’s numbers dropped quite a bit in 2023, as he hit just .226 with six home runs across 288 ABs last season. His 5.8 percent walk rate was his lowest since 2016, and his 25.2 percent strikeout rate was the highest in his entire career! Opposing pitchers fed him more non-fastballs than ever before last season, and against sliders in particular last year, he posted a .159 BAA and 32.7 percent whiff rate. His quality of contact metrics plummeted, and he hit a ton of ground balls. He’ll need a strong spring to make the big league roster, and from there, he’ll likely need an injury or two to find consistent ABs in Toronto.
SSAmed RosarioLATB(Updated 2/20) Rosario may not have put forth the power numbers like he had the couple of seasons prior, but overall, a .263/.305/.378 slash line with 70 runs scored and 15 stolen bases across 142 games isn’t too shabby. He was never a prolific source of power, but after hitting 11 home runs in both 2021 and 2022, his six home runs last year was a bit underwhelming. Rosario struggled against breaking pitches last season, to the tune of a .230 batting average and 30.5 percent whiff rate, but in years past, he’s been fine against those types of offerings. The Rays needed to add another capable middle infielder, and Rosario likely will play a good bit against lefties, as we all know that the Rays love to use platoons. He can handle his own against right-handed pitching, but should he earn regular ABs at shortstop, he should provide a bit of speed at a cheap price for fantasy managers in AL-only formats.
SSTim AndersonCWSMIA(Updated 2/22) After four straight seasons hitting at least .300, Anderson’s average dropped to .245 last season, and even more notable, his .286 OBP was incredibly underwhelming. Anderson has always posted well below-average walk rates, so his OBP is largely fueled by what he does in the batting average department. His quality of contact dropped last year, as his barrel rate was the lowest of his career, and his average exit velocity was tied for the third-lowest of his career. His numbers remain better against left-handed pitching, but now seems like an appropriate time to bring up that he hit just one home run last season, and he has just seven round trippers over the last two seasons. His new home park is quite spacious, so banking on a rebound in the power department seems a bit risky in 2024. However, he can run a little bit, and has an everyday role with Miami, likely hitting in the upper-third of the lineup. Anderson may not be as enticing as he once was from a fantasy perspective, but he’s been practically free in drafts, and even if the power doesn’t fully rebound, he can still give you a .270+ batting average with around 15 stolen bases, which isn’t bad for outside the top 300 players (on average).
SSEnrique HernándezLALA(Updated 2/27) He just can’t escape Los Angeles for too long! After 2.5 years in Boston, Hernandez returned to the Dodgers for the latter part of the 2023 season, and in 54 games with the Dodgers, he slashed .262/.308/.423 with five home runs and 30 RBI. Things just seem to fare better for him when he’s wearing Dodger blue, and even last year, upon returning to L.A., his swinging strike rate dropped, and his Z-Contact was above 90 percent! Hernandez has a career .801 OPS and .201 ISO against left-handed pitchers, and regardless of what position he plays, you can expect him to be in the lineup against southpaws more often than not. The Dodgers surely covet his versatility, as he appeared at seven different positions last season.
SSIsiah Kiner-FalefaNYYTOR(Updated 12/29) Kiner-Falefa can provide positional versatility for the Blue Jays, as he logged time at six different positions last year, including all three outfield spots. He’s a light-hitting player that thrives on making a lot of contact, compared to breaking Statcast’s batted ball metrics. He’s posted a 90+ percent zone-contact rate every season dating back to 2018, and last year’s eight percent swinging strike rate was the highest of his entire career. To his credit, he did make some of the hardest contact of his career last year, though his average exit velocity and hard hit rate are still below average, coming in at the 39th and 40th percentiles respectively. Kiner-Falefa can provide fantasy managers with a healthy number of stolen bases when playing in a full time role, which doesn’t seem likely in Toronto, at least to begin the 2024 campaign.
SSJoey WendleMIANYMWendle should be a solid depth piece for the Mets, and if he needs to play regularly, he’s more than capable of being better than an average, middling replacement level player. While he only played shortstop last year in Miami, he has experience at second base, third base, and even both corner outfielder spots. His batting average plummeted last year, and while his .264 BABIP didn’t do him any favors, his batted ball metrics were on par with past seasons, and that .231 xBA looks far better than that .212 average. Keep in mind, too, that he did at least .259 in each of the three seasons prior to 2023, and prior to last season, he was a .271 hitter in his career! Wendle’s overall contact rate dipped last year, but he still posted healthy contact metrics on pitches in the zone, and his continued willingness to leave the zone will keep his walk rate suppressed. As a lefty, Wendle was actually better against southpaws last season, but for his career, that hasn’t been the same story. Wendle will need an injury to garner full time work, especially in the infield, as the team should ensure as many at-bats as possible for the likes of Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and the other youngsters. However, to protect the future, the team could protect those up-and-comers on the worse sides of their splits, allowing Wendle to get his name on the lineup card.
SSKevin NewmanCINARI(Updated 1/3) Newman posted a career year back in 2019, when he slashed .308/.353/.446 with 12 home runs and 16 stolen bases across 130 games. However, since then, he hasn’t been able to recapture that magic. He continues to make a lot of contact, and does a great job of getting the bat to the ball, but his quality of contact is marginal at best. He posted the best barrel rate and hard hit rate of his career last year, though those marks were just 2.5 percent and 29.3 percent respectively. He was far better against left-handed pitching last season, posting an .813 OPS and .186 ISO against southpaws, compared to a .571 OPS and .055 ISO against RHP. Newman can play virtually any position in the infield, so he’ll be considered a super utility guy for Arizona, and he would be a logical fill in when a lefty is on the mound for the opponent, and a regular in the lineup needs a breather. Fantasy wise, there’s not much here with the light-hitting Newman, though DFS players will likely be keen to use him against southpaws.
1BCody BellingerCHICHI(Updated 2/25) Three years and $80M gets it done for Bellinger to head back to Chicago, and perhaps what’s best for him is that he can opt out again next year, or in 2025 if he so chooses. After six years with the Dodgers, Bellinger went to the Windy City in 2023, and in 130 games for the Cubs, slashed .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs, 95 runs scored, 97 RBI, and a career high 20 stolen bases. His 15.6 percent strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, so it won’t come as much of a surprise that his contact rate and zone contact rate were also career bests. His quality of contact numbers actually dropped a little bit, but he loved playing at Wrigley, highlighted by his .902 OPS and .246 ISO at home last season. Chicago needed another power bat in its lineup, and they get just that with Bellinger. The star slugger is primed for another 20/20 season in the heart of the Chicago lineup, though I don’t envision him hitting over .300 again. His xBA of .270 last year is a safe projection for 2024, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see him push closer to .280, especially if he continues to make as much contact as he did in 2023.
RFHunter RenfroeCINKC(Updated 12/15) Aside from the 2020 season, Renfroe had 25 or more home runs in every season between 2017-2022. In 2023, he managed to hit 19 home runs in 126 games with the Angeles, but after being traded to Cincy, it all went downhill from there. He hit just .128 in 14 games with the Reds, but overall, the pop wasn’t there for Renfroe. His .183 ISO last year was the first time he’s been below .230 in his entire career, and his Statcast metrics fell off a cliff, highlighted by a 6.1 percent barrel rate, far and away the lowest mark of his career. Believe it or not, he outperformed his expected metrics, and those expected numbers really showcase how bad his 2023 season was. Softer contact and more ground balls isn’t the ideal makeup for a player of Renfroe’s physical stature, but aside from home runs, Kauffman Stadium actually plays well for right-handed hitters. He could get moved at the deadline this year, but he should be a cheap source of power, as he should be hitting around the heart of the Kansas City order on a regular basis.
RFTeoscar HernándezSEALA(Updated 1/8) Some may call 2023 a down year for Hernandez, because despite playing the most games (160) he’s ever played in a season, he hit just 26 home runs and posted a .305 OBP. Sure, his 24.0 AB/HR was his lowest mark since the 25.0 AB/HR number he posted in 41 games with Houston in 2016, but is it as simple as just chalking it up to the unfriendly hitter confines for righties at T-Mobile Park? Overall, the park grades poorly for right-handed hitters, but for home runs, it’s nearly average. However, he did only post a .217 average, .380 SLG, and .163 ISO at home last year, and those were numbers were nowhere near his marks on the road. Hernandez demolished left-handed pitching last year, to the tune of a .510 SLG and 120 wRC+ and he was about average against righties, hitting .249 with a 100 wRC+. From August 1 on, he slashed .294/.339/.491 with a 12.8 percent barrel rate, and 49.7 percent hard hit rate! Hernandez isn’t getting any younger, but he stayed healthy last season, and the Dodgers are hoping that he can do it again. He will be another power bat in this lineup and he gets a massive park upgrade in Dodger Stadium, which has been very lucrative to right-handed power hitters. There’s a lot of talent in this lineup, so his supporting cast should be excellent, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Hernandez’s ADP is going to jump a good bit here in the coming days following this news. In his new lineup and home park, he has a very good chance to hit 30+ home runs for the second time in his career, and perhaps even push 100 RBI. If all goes well, think 2021 Hernandez, with a few less stolen bases and a batting average closer to .255 than the .296 he posted that season.
RFJason HeywardLALAIn his age 33 season, Heyward had a resurgence with the Dodgers, slashing .269/.340/.473 with 15 home runs, 56 runs scored, 40 RBI, and a .204 ISO across 124 games. His .204 ISO was his highest mark since his career year in 2012 with the Braves, while his .340 OBP was his highest since the shortened 2020 season. He did change his stance/swing a bit, which seemed to help, along with the Dodger magic they seem to have. Heyward stayed in the zone more than past years, and got the bat on the ball more frequently, en route to an 81.3 percent contact rate, his highest in the past five seasons. The Dodgers limited his at-bats against left-handers, and the same story figures to play out in 2023, that he’ll play on the larger side of a platoon. Heyward was a non-factor in the postseason, but after a slower start to the season, he was solid after the All-Star Break, posting a .287 average with 17 extra-base hits across 157 at-bats. Fantasy wise, he’ll have a good supporting cast around him yet again in 2023, but his expected statistics indicate a bit of regression in 2024. Additionally, he will be operating in a platoon, so he won’t be an everyday player.
CFJung Hoo LeeFASF(Updated 12/13) The Giants finally land a big name free agent! The team inked Jung Hoo Lee to a multi-year deal, and the former KBO MVP can best be described as a wizard with the bat in his hands. In terms of his strikeout rate, his worst season came as a 19-year-old in 2018 when he struck out 11.2 percent of the time. However, he’s posted a higher walk rate than strikeout rate in each of the last four seasons in the KBO, and he’s never recorded a season with lower than a .318 batting average. The power waned in 2023, and outside of his 23 home runs in 2022, and 15 home runs in 2020, power has never been a big part of his game. We have seen some players that come from the KBO struggle early on, and it can sometimes take a bit to transition to life in the United States and Major League Baseball. He’ll need some time to get used to higher velocity on a more consistent basis, but you can’t teach his bat-to-ball skills and feel for the batter’s box and strike zone. Even if he doesn’t replicate his .300+ average from the KBO in his first year with the Giants, which is something we shouldn’t expect by the way, he’ll provide above-average defense and a contact-first offensive profile with more emphasis on contact quantity than quality.
CFGarrett HampsonCOLMIAIn 2021, Garrett Hampson showed signs of life, slashing .234/.289/.380 with 11 home runs and 17 stolen bases across 147 games. An elevated strikeout rate from the upper minors has carried with him throughout his big league career, and a lack of hard contact may have been overshadowed a bit by the friendly and forgiving confines of Coors Field. His batted ball metrics won’t wow anyone, especially last year’s 2.5 percent barrel rate, and the fact that he’s posted an average exit velocity below 87 miles per hour in every year of his career, except that 2021 season. At first glance, Hampson’s .276 average from last year looks pretty good, however, his expected statistics tell a different story, and it looks like that inflated .379 BABIP is the reason he hit .276, compared to being closer to his .242 xBA. His .380 SLG exceeds his .330 xSLG, and his .323 wOBA outperformed his .295 xwOBA. This is a better move in reality than in fantasy, as he will provide versatility to the Royals, and ultimately satisfy two bench spots himself. Despite the lack of quality contact, he has enjoyed an elevated walk rate the past two seasons, and he played six different positions last year. He’ll likely open the year as a super utility man for Kansas City, but he’s just one injury away from potentially being thrusted into a full time role, where he could provide some fantasy value.
CFHarrison BaderCINNYM(Updated 1/4) Through 84 games with the Yankees last year, Bader slashed .240/.278/.365 with seven home runs and 17 stolen bases, but before becoming fantasy irrelevant upon heading to Cincinnati. Prior to his groin injury in late May, he slashed .267/.295/.511. After the injury, he slashed .218/.266/.284. His batted ball metrics rebounded after a disastrous 2022 season in those regards, though for the most part, the majority of the metrics (barrel rate, hard hit rate, and average exit velocity) are still subpar. Citi Field presents a slight downgrade in terms of home park for the right-handed Bader, but in terms of the park factor for home runs, it’s a steep downgrade to Citi Field (95) from Yankee Stadium (113). His ground ball rate has dropped each of the last two seasons, which could present the opportunity for increased power, but the quality of contact doesn’t indicate that occurring. He’s hit lefties well for his career, and he’s a quality defender, and a strong spring could cement him as the team’s starting center fielder. The Mets have other outfield options, but Bader holding down centerfield would allow the team to move Nimmo to left, and maybe keep him healthy. For fantasy purposes, Bader is an intriguing flier in the later rounds, as he can provide some cheap speed for fantasy managers, and maybe, just maybe, he can find that 2021 version of himself in the power department. With regular playing time in 2024, he could be a member of the 10/20 club, with more upside in the stolen base department.
CFKevin KiermaierTORTOR(Updated 12/27) Kiermaier is an excellent defender, and last year, he ranked in the 98th and 95th percentile in range (OAA) and arm strength respectively. He still boasts great speed, and he managed to go 14-for-15 on stolen base attempts last season. After staying healthy last year and playing in more than 120 games for just the fourth time in his career, he earned a little raise for the 2024 season, and should operate as the everyday center fielder for Toronto. His hard contact and barrel rate took a bit of a tumble, which isn’t ideal, though he offset that by improving on his contact rates and propensity to stay in the strike zone. For fantasy purposes, he’s a bottom of the order bat who can steal some bases, but he’s not getting any younger, meaning that his 2024 season could look like 2023, though I’d expect a reduction in his batting average and slugging percentage.
CFAaron HicksBALLAA(Updated 1/30) After an uneventful start to the year with the Yankees, Hicks came on strong for Baltimore! In 65 games with the Orioles, he slashed .275/.381/.425 with seven home runs and six stolen bases! He was actually useful in fantasy during that time, something he hadn’t really been the three seasons prior with the Yankees. The Angels will likely open the year deploying Hicks primarily against left-handed pitching, but depending on how Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell perform, the pathway to regular ABs for Hicks isn’t completely out of the question. Hicks shouldn’t be drafted in fantasy baseball, but maybe as the season plays out he could be a useful addition. However, I don’t expect him to catch lightning in a bottle again like he did with Baltimore in 2023.
CFAdam DuvallBOSATL(Updated 3/14) In 92 games with the Red Sox last year, Duvall swatted 21 home runs, and his .284 ISO and .531 SLG were quite impressive to say the least. A distal radius fracture cost him some time, but when he was on the field, he was driving the ball for power. Duvall posted an 85th percentile barrel rate last season, but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that some of his quality of contact metrics are slipping just a bit. In Atlanta, he'll likely be deployed in a platoon, and find his name on the lineup card when facing a left-handed pitcher, perhaps taking over for Jarred Kelenic on those days. Duvall will be better suited for use in DFS, though those in deeper formats where daily moves are permitted could pick and choose their spots with the veteran slugger.
LFJoc PedersonSFARI(Updated 1/25) While his .235 average, 15 home runs, and .182 ISO may not look overly impressive over the course of his 121 games played last season, Pederson was very, very solid at the dish in 2023. His walk rate of 13.4 percent was his second-highest mark in a season where he played at least 100 games, and his 20.9 percent strikeout rate was the first time since 2018 he was below 21 percent! He continued to make a lot of hard contact, and in fact, his 52.2 percent hard hit rate last year was the best of his career. His xBA of .263 last year is positive, and his .483 xSLG and .368 wOBA are incredibly enticing as he gets a sizable park upgrade heading to Arizona. Pederson will sit against lefties, but on the larger side of a platoon, Pederson slots right in the middle of the Arizona order, and there’s plenty of offensive firepower around him. In leagues where you can make daily lineup adjustments, you can maximize Pederson’s production for your team, and he should easily give you 20+ home runs this season in the middle of a potent Arizona lineup.
LFLourdes GurrielARIARI(Updated 12/18) Is Gurriel an odd year guy? For his career, his best seasons have come in 2019, 2021, and 2023. His even years have not been so great #analysis. Despite the average dropping down to .261, which was actually the worst mark in a season in his entire career, but he hit 24 home runs and posted a .463 SLG across a career-high 145 games. His .201 ISO was the first time he broke through the .200 threshold since 2020, and his batted ball metrics are very sustainable heading into 2024. Ultimately, there’s not much in his profile that screams outlier or regression for 2024, and in fact, his average could see a slight uptick if he can hit righties better than he did last year. While he hit .301 against lefties last year, which was great, his .247 average against righties is a far cry from his .275 average for his career. There’s a bit of a logjam in the Arizona outfield, but he’s got an everyday role in the lineup, which likely consists of serving as the DH against righties, and playing right field against southpaws. If you’re superstitious, you may buy into the odd/even year narrative for Gurriel, but ultimately, his batted ball profile is sustainable, and his expected statistics fall right in light with his actual numbers from last year.
LFRandal GrichukLAAARI(Updated 2/17) After a solid showing in Colorado in the early parts of 2023, Grichuk’s numbers fell off once he got to the Angels. However, 2023 still marked the third straight season that he hit at least 16 home runs in a season, and his 45.3 percent hard hit rate last year was his highest mark since 2016! Grichuk likely plays on the smaller side of a platoon in the Arizona outfield, as the team could use someone who can pack a punch against left-handed pitching. Operating on the small side of a platoon doesn’t help his fantasy value much, but DFS players will likely be very aware of Grichuk in a talented Arizona lineup when facing a lefty starter. He could be a fine pickup if he finds his way into a full time role, but at least to begin the season, that type of consistent playing time doesn’t seem likely.
LFKevin PillarATLCWS(Updated 2/3) Pillar appeared in 81 games for the Braves last season, slashing .228/.248/.416 with nine home runs, 29 runs scored, and four stolen bases. He really struggled against right-handed pitching last season, posting a .202 average and .580 OPS, but he was serviceable against lefties, notching a .250 average and .733 OPS. He’s a quality defender who likely appears on the small side of a platoon in the Chicago outfield. The jump in his hard hit rate to 38.7 percent last season was exceptional, and that would bode well if he gets the majority of his at-bats on the best side of his splits. His walk rate came back to Earth, and if your league values OBP, he gets knocked down a few notches. At this stage of his career, Pillar isn’t an outfielder you need to prioritize in drafts, let alone as a player on your roster in any capacity.
LFJurickson ProfarSDSD(Updated 2/13) Profar went to Colorado and couldn’t quite find his footing, and ultimately ended up being released in late August. He returned to San Diego, and slashed .295/.367/.409 across 49 plate appearances. The switch-hitting outfielder likely has an everyday role in San Diego, simply because after Fernando Tatis Jr., this outfield is littered with question marks. At times, Profar has shown to be quite the fantasy commodity, in that he can do a little bit of everything, and we’ve seen a few seasons where he put up respectable power numbers. Profar has a great feel for the strike zone, giving him a nice bump in leagues that value OBP, but an otherwise underwhelming batted ball profile keeps his fantasy value suppressed. In NL-only formats, he’s a fine target, as ABs will be there for him, but it would have to be a rather deep mixed league to take a shot on Profar.
LFDavid PeraltaLACHI(Updated 2/19) Peralta appeared in 133 games for the Dodgers last season, and he slashed .259/.294/.381 with seven home runs, 47 runs scored, and four stolen bases. His .274 xBA was his highest in a season since 2018, though his 4.9 percent barrel rate was down a little bit. Peralta’s 4.7 percent walk rate was his lowest since 2016, and his quality of contact is starting to wane a bit as he progresses deeper into his mid-thirties. The veteran outfielder underwent surgery on his elbow back in October, but he’ll get a chance to compete in spring training to come off the bench for Chicago. For fantasy purposes, he’s not someone we need to monitor throughout the spring.
LFEddie RosarioATLWSH(Updated 3/6) Rosario hit 21 home runs and drove in 74 runners in 142 games for the Braves last season, and he has many years under his belt as a productive bat in the MLB, though he's been better against RHP over the last couple of seasons. There were some questions about depth in the Washington outfield, and the signing of Rosario provides a veteran presence if he breaks camp with the big league team. He could find regular ABs in the Washington outfield, especially if the team isn't ready to trust Jesse Winker or Stone Garrett in a regular role.
OFJoey GalloMINWSH(Updated 1/23) What is there to say about Gallo that isn’t already widely known? He posted 21 home runs, a .262 ISO, and a .440 SLG in 111 games last year, all while striking out 42.8 percent of the time and hitting below the Mendoza line for the fourth straight season. He gets a slight park upgrade overall heading to Nationals Park, and he can play first base or outfield for the Nats in 2024. Fantasy managers will appreciate the versatility Gallo provides when setting their lineup(s) for the day or week, but as good as the power can be, he’s a massive drain on your team’s batting average. However, he’s far more palatable in leagues that value OBP, because despite hitting for such a poor average, he’s posted a double-digit walk rate in every year of his nine year career, so despite being a .197 career hitter, he has a career .323 OBP. Gallo is a low-risk-moderate-reward at his price point, considering he’s practically free in drafts.
DHJ.D. MartinezLANYM(Updated 3/21) Martinez is aging like fine wine, and in his age 35 season last year with the Dodgers, Martinez hit 33 home runs and posted a .572 SLG in just 113 games. His 33 home runs were the most he posted in a season since 2019, and his .301 ISO last year was his highest since 2017. He enjoyed the hitter friendly confines of Dodger Stadium, but to his credit, he did post an excellent 17 percent barrel rate and 54.8 percent hard hit rate (career best). He figures to slot in right behind Pete Alonso in the heart of the New York order, and while he suffers a park downgrade in heading to Citi Field, he has plenty of power, so he should once again be a reliable source of power for fantasy managers. Be sure to check your league settings to see if he has OF eligibility or if he is UT only, and understand what that does for lineup construction.
DHJorge SolerMIASF(Updated 2/13) In what was arguably the second-best campaign of Soler’s career, Soler was excellent for fantasy managers and the Marlins alike. Across 137 games, Soler hit 36 home runs and drove in 75 runners while slashing .250/.341/.512. He posted a 15 percent barrel rate and 48 percent hard hit rate, both of which were in the 84th percentile or better last season. Soler will always likely run a bit streaky, but he has elite power, and last year’s 27.6 percent whiff rate was his lowest since the metric was tracked. Despite going from one bad park to another for right-handed hitters, there’s enough in this San Fran lineup to help pad some of his numbers, and no stadium in the MLB can contain Soler’s gargantuan power. He’ll play everyday for the Giants, whether it be in the outfield or at DH, and as long as he can stay healthy, he should be a near lock for 30 home runs in 2024.
DHAndrew McCutchenPITPIT(Updated 12/19) After partially tearing his achilles last season, McCutchen signed a one-year deal to return to Pittsburgh for another season. When he was in the lineup, he was a positive force in the Pirates’ lineup. In 112 games, he hit 12 home runs, stole 11 bases, and his 15.9 percent walk rate pushes his OBP to a healthy .378! His expected statistics were right in line with his actual statistics, and his 21.3 percent O-Swing% was his lowest mark since the 2019 season! He was solid once again against lefties, and when he’s healthy, he’ll hit in the heart of the Pittsburgh order, which should be an interesting unit, especially with continued development from Ke’Bryan Hayes and Henry Davis, as well as a full season (fingers crossed) from Oneil Cruz. Depending on your league settings, he may only have UT eligibility, so take note of that!
DHDaniel VogelbachNYMTOR(Updated 2/17) Vogelbach appeared in 104 games for the Mets last season, and across 319 plate appearances, he swatted 13 home runs while posting a .404 SLG. He punished fastballs last season, but non-fastballs gave him some fits, paying a large part in his 25.4 percent strikeout rate from last season. The veteran 1B/DH has always posted impressive quality of contact numbers, and a strong feel of the strike zone, but strikeouts still creep into his offensive profile, and he cannot be deployed against left-handed pitching. He has a chance to make the big league roster as a power bat from the left side off the bench.
RPJosh HaderSDHOU(Updated 1/19) The Astros make a big splash by signing Hader to a massive five-year deal worth $95 million! This contract comes on the heels of a 2023 campaign where Hader closed out 33 games for the Padres, posting a 1.28 ERA and 36.8 percent strikeout rate! After a disastrous 2022 season, he generated more swings out of the zone, allowed fewer home runs, and did a far better job of avoiding barrels. He doesn’t generate a ton of ground balls, but his slider enjoyed a massive jump in that department (career high 50% GB% in 2022), while maintaining a 50+ percent whiff rate. He’s a fastball-slider guy, and his slider is lethal to say the least. In a perfect world, his walk rate comes in closer to 10 percent than 15 percent in 2024, but even if he allows a few more walks than you’d like, he’s as dominant as they come. From a fantasy perspective, Hader will be closing games for a very good Houston team, and he’ll have excellent options before him, a la Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, and Rafael Montero, to preserve leads prior to Hader coming in and shutting the door. Hader deserves to be one of the first couple of closers off the board, and shouldn’t fall past the fourth or fifth closer if you ask me.
RPLiam HendriksCWSBOS(Updated 2/19) Hendriks was placed on the IL in late March of 2023 due to being diagnosed with stage 4 non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, but in a miraculous turn of events, he was able to return to the mound in 2023 for a handful of innings. From 2019-2022, Hendriks was dominant, and he closed a total of 75 games for the White Sox over the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He boasts excellent velocity, and back in 2022, his slider registered a .100 BAA and 669 percent whiff rate! It’s tough to glean much from his 2023 season, given everything that occurred earlier in the season, but this is a solid move for the Red Sox. There have been some rumors about wanting to trade Kenley Jansen, and adding Hendriks to the pen gives Boston another legitimate ninth inning option, should they choose to move on from Jansen. Hopefully we see Hendriks in the latter stages of the 2024 season, though it's far from a guarantee as he's on his way back from Tommy John surgery.
RPCraig KimbrelPHIBAL(Updated 12/6): Kimbrel’s contract likely affords him a lengthy leash as the team’s closer to begin the year. Felix Bautista will be recovering from Tommy John surgery, and Yennier Cano is an elite setup option who will likely see some save opportunities of his own. However, Kimbrel should get the lion’s share of the ninth inning work to begin the year, and as he continues to age, he continues to be effective more often than not. After a down year in the strikeout department in 2022, he returned to a respectable 33.8 percent strikeout rate last season, and he converted 23-of-28 save opportunities for the Phillies. His fly ball rate continues to rise as he gets a bit older, so while he is a bit more prone to the long ball than he was earlier in his career, he’s in a pitcher-friendly park closing out games for a team that should win a lot of games in 2024, especially if Baltimore acquires a frontline starter to add to its rotation. Kimbrel still boasts solid velocity, and he has a curveball that’s been very good to him throughout his career, despite last year’s career low 38.2 percent whiff rate, which is still good by all measures! Baltimore needed another reliable, proven option out of the pen, because you need more than two dominant relievers over the course of a 162-game regular season and then playoffs. Of course, Kimbrel is prone to his fair share of implosions, but he’s likely to be the primary ninth-inning man, or at the very least in a split, for a very good Baltimore team this season.
RPNick MartinezSDCINThe Reds continue to add pieces to its bullpen, which makes sense, seeing as you can never have enough arms in the pen. Cincinnati was league average last year in terms of bullpen ERA, coming in at 4.11, but their 4.48 FIP ranked 23rd, and 4.87 xFIP ranked 29th. The bullpen also had the fourth-lowest K/9 in the majors, and Martinez isn’t a very big strikeout arm himself. He’s posted a 22.1 percent strikeout rate over the last two years, but he’s also been very reliable, posting a 3.45 ERA and 79.1 percent strand rate over the last two years with San Diego. His fly ball rate has dropped each of the last two years, featured by last year’s career low 28.2 percent, which should behoove him in Great American Ball Park if he can repeat that mark. His arsenal runs five pitches deep, and he dropped the usage of his fastball to let his other pitches shine, which is a better move for him. Martinez’s changeup posted a 46.5 percent whiff rate last year, and that’s the best pitch in his toolbox. While primarily a reliever for the Padres, he did make 19 starts over the last two seasons for the Padres, and the Reds could give him a look as a starter in spring training. Even if he doesn’t break camp as a member of the rotation, he will ultimately serve as the team’s de facto spot starter, as well as middle/long reliever. He gets a park downgrade, as GABP plays as one of the best hitter fields in the game, but his numbers over the past two years are very repeatable, perhaps with an ERA closer to 4.00.
RPHéctor NerisHOUCHI(Updated 1/27) Since recording 28 saves back in 2019, Neris has just 22 saves over the last four seasons, but he was dominant for those who needed him last year in leagues that value holds. Across 68.1 IP, he posted a career best 1.71 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 28.2 percent strikeout rate, while recording two saves and 31 holds. Neris’ splitter is elite, and last season, it posted a .171 BAA and 42.2 percent whiff rate, not to mention a .213 wOBA. Neris does have closing experience, but the Cubs will likely use Neris as the setup man to Adbert Alzolay. Even if Neris experiences some regression in 2024, he’s a great reliever to target in SV+H leagues, as he’s posted a 2.69 ERA, 10.50 K/9, and MLB best 56 holds over the last two seasons. Furthermore, with the current state of affairs in the Chicago bullpen, if something were to happen to Alzolay, Neris should step in as the team’s closer, further boosting his fantasy value in the aforementioned setups.
RPWill SmithTEXKC(Updated 12/10) Smith’s 4.40 ERA may have been higher than what many fantasy managers would have wanted, but his peripherals indicate it should have been lower, and he still managed to save 22-of-27 opportunities in 2023. His groundball rate of 29.6 percent was a career low, and that likely won’t change much in 2023, as his two primary pitches won’t lend themselves to many grounders. He puts his fastball up in the zone, and lets his slider flourish as his out pitch. That slider generates a ton of whiffs, and last year, opponents hit just .120 against it. Smith should step right in and contend with James McArthur for save opportunities in the Kansas City pen, and with a strong spring, he could win the job right out of camp.
RPAroldis ChapmanTEXPIT(Updated 1/23) Chapman will be traded at the trade deadline, you can almost guarantee it. Pittsburgh inked him to a one-year deal, and they will flip him come July to acquire some young talent. The veteran southpaw was great last year, as he posted a 3.09 ERA and 41.4 percent strikeout rate as a member of the Royals and Rangers. During the Rangers’ World Series run, Chapman posted a 2.25 ERA across eight innings in the postseason. Chapman is a fastball-slider guy, though he’s mixing in a sinker and splitter every now and again to keep the opposition honest. He’s not a guy who generates a ton of swings out of the zone, but he racks up whiffs in bunches, including posting a 17.5 percent swinging strike rate last year, which was his second-highest mark over his last seven seasons! David Bednar is still in town and figures to get the first crack as the primary ninth inning man, but Chapman should prove to be quite valuable in SV+H leagues, as this Pirates team might surprise some people in 2024, so long as the starting staff outperforms relatively low expectations.
RPJorge LópezBALNYM(Updated 12/8): For just $2M, this is a solid move by the Mets to add another experienced arm to its bullpen. The move to being a full-time reliever was great for Lopez’s career, as he went from a fantasy afterthought to a priority in 2022 with Baltimore, when he posted a 1.68 ERA and 19 saves across 48.1 IP with the team. Baltimore moved him to Minnesota, capitalizing on his hot start, and things just haven’t been the same since then. He played for three different teams in 2023, and for the season as a whole, he posted a 5.95 ERA, 1.83 HR/9 and 18.4 percent strikeout rate across 61 total appearances. Lopez allowed a lot of hard contact last season, coming in at the seventh percentile last season. In 2024, the Mets would be wise to have Lopez back off his four-seamer a bit, and really focus on his sinker, curveball, and changeup. His changeup was excellent in 2022, posting a 36.4 percent whiff rate and .205 BAA, but he dropped the usage on it in 2023, opting to really raise the usage of his four-seamer, to the tune of a .375 BAA and .688 SLG. A healthy Edwin Diaz has the ninth inning role secured, so Lopez should slot into a middle relief role, with the chance to get into the “setup man” territory, especially if he can recapture that magic he found in Baltimore in 2022.
RPReynaldo LópezCLEATLThe move to the pen allowed Lopez to dial in his best pitch, and allow him to succeed as a two-pitch arm. His fastball-slider combo has wreaked havoc on opponents, and while he had a rough start to the 2023 campaign, he posted a 1.29 ERA and 32.2 percent strikeout rate over his last 28 innings of work. He converted just half of his save opportunities last season (6-for-12), but the report is that Atlanta is going to give Lopez an opportunity to start. They will stretch him out in Spring training, and his role will be determined at the end of spring. He’s been solid as a reliever of late, so my belief is that his biggest fantasy contributions would come as a reliever, but if Atlanta can push the right buttons, maybe he’s an intriguing late round starter. However, while the versatility is nice for Atlanta, it could be a bit of a headache for fantasy, especially if they bounce him around between being a spot starter and middle reliever.
RPAdam OttavinoNYMNYM(Updated 1/27) The Mets get Ottavino back for the 2024 season, and he’ll be a highly valuable piece of the team’s pen. Despite a 1-7 record last season, he posted a 3.21 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 12 saves. It was his first season since 2014 where he posted a K/9 under 10, and his 11.1 percent walk rate is a bit higher than we’d like to see from him. The veteran right-hander allowed a lot of hard contact last season, and it was just the second time in the last six seasons where his swinging strike rate was under 10 percent. Opponents made more contact against him last year than year’s past, and his velocity was down a little bit. He should rack up a good number of holds for a Mets squad in 2024, though his path to saves is completely blocked by the return of Edwin Diaz. Outside of leagues that value holds, Ottavino’s fantasy value is nearly nonexistent, as his age might be starting to catch up to him.
RPDavid RobertsonMIATEX(Updated 1/25) Robertson’s 2023 season was arguably two different seasons bundled into one. In 44 IP with the Mets, he posted a 2.05 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 7.6 percent walk rate. Then, he gets traded to Miami, and proceeds to throw up a 5.06 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and 12.4 percent walk rate over 21.1 IP. As a member of the Marlins, he converted just four of seven save opportunities. Robertson’s stuff is still good, and when you see his .385 BABIP and 3.49 FIP as a member of the Marlins, it’s easy to buy into the notion that Robertson is still quite good at his job going into his age 39 season. He’s going to take some save chances from Jose LeClerc, and with another proven closing option in the Texas pen, Leclerc’s leash has been shortened considerably. Robertson is still a quality reliever to target in SV+H leagues, because he should give you enough strikeouts, while boosting your ratios and racking up saves and holds for a solid Texas squad.
RPAdam CimberTORLAA(Updated 12/7): After the 2023 season which saw the Angels post a 4.88 ERA from its bullpen, it’s clear they were going to add some reinforcements in the offseason. Cimber was rock solid in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, logging a sub-3.00 ERA with over 70 appearances in each of those two seasons. It was a different story in 2023, however, as a rhomboid strain and shoulder impingement limited him to just 20.2 IP across 22 appearances. He wasn’t the same guy that we had seen in years past, and we can likely chalk it up to injuries. The veteran sidewinder should get back to his previous ways this year with the Angels, serving as a reliable option in the seventh and/or eighth inning, paving way for Carlos Estevez in the ninth.
RPRyne StanekHOUSEA(Updated 3/8) Stanek’s 2023 season didn’t quite match his 2022 numbers, but to be fair, expecting him to post a 1.15 ERA again was going to be a tall task. However, aside from his 4.09 ERA and 1.42 HR/9, his strikeout rate tumbled to 23.9 percent, his lowest since 2020. Compared to 2022, he generated fewer swings out of the zone, allowed more contact overall, but still had a healthy 14.7 percent SwStr%. His splitter and slider both posted whiff rates of at least 40 percent last season, but his fastball took a step back in that department, and specifically when there was two strikes, the whiff rate on his fastball dropped over 12 percentage points compared to 2022. With his new club, Stanek will pitch in high-leverage situations for Seattle, and figures to be the top setup man ahead of Andres Munoz. Should anything happen to Munoz at any point this season, Seattle would likely turn to Stanek in the ninth inning.
RPEmilio PagánMINCINPagan has proven closing experience, as he has 32 saves across his seven big league seasons. Last year, his 0.65 HR/9 mark was the lowest of his career, aided by a minuscule 5.3 percent HR/FB ratio. However, he still surrendered fly balls more than half of the time, and while his ground ball rate was above his career mark, it was a far cry from his career high in 2022. He allowed a lot of hard contact, and unfortunately, hard contact and fly balls in Great American Ball Park doesn't exactly seem like a recipe for success. He outperformed the majority of his expected and peripheral statistics, indicating some regression could be in store in 2023. Actually, maybe it's not regression, but more so returning to the form we've seen in the three years prior. Pagan should immediately step in as the primary setup man in the Reds' pen, and would be the next man up should something happen to Alexis Diaz.
RPJoe KellyLALAUpdated 12/4: It seems like Kelly in a Dodgers uniform, and the non-Los Angeles Kelly are two different people. His best seasons have come as a member of the Dodgers, and there are very few notable seasons from Kelly otherwise, except 2013 and maybe 2017 with the Cardinals and Red Sox respectively. In 29 innings with the White Sox last year, Kelly was striking batters out at a solid clip, but a 58.7 percent LOB% and 4.97 ERA were ugly. However, some of his peripherals were far better than that, and it’s hard to overcome a .382 BABIP. Kelly then heads to Los Angeles, where he posts a 47.5 percent strikeout rate, .088 BAA, and 1.32 FIP across 11 appearances. He didn’t get much playoff run, but was effective when called upon. Kelly isn’t getting any younger, but the velocity is still there for him, and in recent years, he’s really upped the usage on his slider, which was lethal last season. He’ll slot in the middle of the Los Angeles bullpen, but he’ll be more than just one injury away from save chances for the Dodgers.
RPChris DevenskiTBTB(Updated Dec. 6) After a couple of rough seasons post-Houston, Devenski really settled in with the Rays after joining the club in September. Down the stretch, he made nine appearances with the team, posting a 2.08 ERA, 27.3 percent strikeout rate, and .161 BAA. When he joined the Rays, his pitch mix switched ever so slightly, in that he dropped the usage of his four-seamer, and used his sweeper a bit more. In the final month of the year, his changeup continued to headline his arsenal, but his sweeper posted a 33.3 percent whiff rate, despite being hit around a little bit. In fact, all four of his pitches had a 30+ percent whiff rate in September! While Devenski may not have much fantasy value in his role, the Rays may be onto something with Devenski and his pitch mix.
RPMichael TonkinATLNYM(Updated Dec. 6) The veteran reliever was tough on right-handed hitters last year, just like he has been for the majority of his career. Lefties have given him some problems though, but he figures to be a steady presence in the Mets’ bullpen. After a six-year hiatus from pitching in the majors, he logged 80 IP for the Braves in 2023, which was a career high, and posted a 4.28 ERA (3.85 xERA). He’s a flyball reliever, so home runs will get the best of him every now and again, but he’ll be going to a friendlier home park for pitchers, so maybe that will mitigate some of the concerns from his flyball-centric profile. No real fantasy value here, but good depth for New York.
RPLuis GarcíaSDLAA(Updated Dec. 6) The journeyman reliever will play for his sixth big league team, and his fifth in the last seven years. For his career, he has a 4.05 ERA, but since going to San Diego, his ground ball rate jumped. The last two years has seen Garcia post ground ball rates of 54.4 percent and 60.9 percent, and prior to the last two years, the veteran right-hander posted a sub-50 percent ground ball rate in every season since 2017. Despite dropping the usage on his sinker a bit, it’s still his primary pitch, but his four-seamer was exceptional last year at inducing ground balls (-3 degree launch angle). The Angels would be wise to continue using Garcia as a sinker-slider reliever, with a four-seamer and splitter mixed in every now and again. He’ll be a middle reliever for the Angels in 2023, with no clear path to ninth inning work, which isn’t something he’s really done much of in his career (11 SV).
RPKirby YatesATLTEX(Updated 12/7): Injuries limited Yates to a combined 11.1 IP between 2020-2022, but he was healthy coming into the 2023 season, and he was great for the Braves. Over 61 appearances, he logged a 7-2 record, five saves, 3.28 ERA, and 31.5 percent strikeout rate. He had some command issues, but maybe we don’t overreact to his 14.6 percent walk rate for a couple reasons. The first of which is that he pitched just 11.1 IP across the seasons prior, and from 2014-2019, he had a 7.8 percent walk rate. His walk rate ballooned due to an erratic final two months of the season, where he walked 15 batters across 20.1 IP. Yates’ splitter is a problem for hitters, and last year, it resulted in a .160 BAA and 34.3 percent whiff rate. Yates loves his four-seamer, which has been very effective in its own right, although it does get put in the air a lot. Yates will be on a good team once again in 2024, and his experience in high-leverage situations could give him an opportunity to win the closing job, or at least a piece of it, with a strong, and healthy, spring.
RPAndrew ChafinMILDET(Updated 12/10) After a rough 2023 season, Chafin will return to Detroit, in the hopes of regaining his 2021-2022 form. In his lone year with the Tigers in 2022, he posted a 2.83 ERA across 64 appearances, while posting a 27.6 percent strikeout rate. While he wasn’t the lefty specialist that he was for most of his career last season, he has a longer track record of being good against lefties than not. For his entire career, left-handed hitters have a .226 average and .277 wOBA against Chafin, and the Tigers are banking on him to return to his 2021-2022 form, and providing some quality innings out of the bullpen.
RPChris StrattonTEXKC(Updated 12/12): While his fantasy relevance in 2023 wasn’t as important as his contributions in reality for Texas down the stretch, it resulted in him getting a nice little chunk of change from the Royals. His 18.8 percent strikeout rate during his time in Texas left a lot to be desired, but he posted a respectable 1.10 WHIP and 3.41 ERA. Sure, he struggled a bit in the postseason, but he provided Texas with respectable innings down the stretch. He’s primarily worked as a reliever in recent seasons, and that appears to be his role this year for the Royals, though if needed, he could likely make a spot start and give more than a couple innings. Stratton generated a lower swing rate out of the zone, a sub-10 percent whiff rate, and his 80.5 percent contact rate allowed was his highest since converting to a reliever. This is a fine move in reality for the Royals, but it doesn’t mean much for fantasy.
RPDylan FloroMINWSH(Updated 12/12): Floro opened the 2023 season with a 1.62 ERA and 52.3 percent groundball rate through his first 16.2 IP of the season. However, over the next 23 IP, while his 10.17 K/9 was pretty solid, his 6.65 ERA left a lot to be desired. To be fair, he did post a 2.60 FIP, 2.76 xFIP, and .479 BABIP during that span. He was ultimately then traded to Minnesota, where once again, his peripherals (3.43 FIP, 3.83 xFIP) were far better than his raw numbers (5.29 ERA). As the year went on, he dropped the usage on his slider, opting to primarily be a four-seamer/sinker guy, and he primarily a one-pitch pitcher against right-handed hitters. He needs to fine tune his pitch mix, but his slider has shown glimpses of being a solid out pitch for him, so I’d like to see him focus on developing that in spring training. He’ll serve as a middle reliever for Washington, and even if something were to happen to Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey would be the logical next choice for saves, so Floro would need a couple of injuries to get saves in Washington.
RPJack FlahertyBALDET(Updated 12/14) Flaherty has had a couple of years to forget. An injury derailed what was going to be a very, very good 2021 season, and since then, he’s really struggled. Last year, he posted a 4.99 ERA across 144.1 IP, and after being traded to the Orioles, it went downhill. He made nine appearances for the Orioles in the second half of the season, but in seven appearances as a starter for the Orioles, he posted a 7.11 ERA, 1.99 HR/9, and 1.67 WHIP. Some of his peripheral numbers look better, but it’s a consolation prize at best. Maybe a fresh start in Detroit is exactly what he needs, and if last year was any indicator, he should cut back the usage on his cutter a bit, as that pitch was absolutely pummeled last season. His slider has long been good for him, but last year wasn’t the case, so that pitch may need a bit of refinement. Flaherty is practically free in drafts, and in the later rounds, you can take a chance on him as a low-risk option, hoping that he can stay healthy in 2024 and push for 150+ IP, something he hasn’t done since 2019.
RPMartín PérezTEXPITPerez was more effective as a reliever for the Rangers last season, well, other than during the postseason. His 2023 season wasn’t as productive as his excellent 20222 campaign, and fantasy managers certainly noticed that. Yes, he still went 10-4 across 35 appearances (20 starts), but a 4.45 ERA paired with a 15.3 percent strikeout rate and 1.40 WHIP just isn’t going to get it done. Perez had a hot start to the year, posting a 2.41 ERA across his first six starts of the season, but the wheels came off the wagon after that, and his last start came in early August. The Pirates are once again going after a veteran arm in the offseason, in the hopes that he can provide some quality innings through the first couple of months of the season, and since it’s a one-year deal, ship him off at the deadline to continue adding young talent to the system. Perez has a spot in the team’s rotation, but fantasy managers should only be looking at him in deeper formats.
RPYuki MatsuiFASD(Updated 1/3) Matsui was the youngest pitcher to earn 200 saves in Nippon Professional Baseball, amassing a 2.43 ERA across his career, dating back to 2014! It’s a wide open bullpen in San Diego, and we’ve seen pitchers come from overseas and perform at a high level right away. Matsui has more than enough closing experience, and a strong spring could put the left-hander in a lucrative position for fantasy baseball managers. However, the team also has Robert Suarez in the mix, as well as fellow free agent signing Woo Suk Go. This could end up being a closer by committee.
RPTim HillSDCWS(Updated 12/28) The sidewinder posted a 5.48 ERA last year with a member of the Padres, though his strikeout rate has dipped since the 2021 season. He’s posted a sub-13 percent strikeout rate each of the past two seasons, and last year, he allowed a ton of hard contact and an 86.4 percent contact rate overall. He lives and dies by his fastballs (four-seamer and sinker), relying on his funky delivery to cause confusion more so than elite velocity or movement. He doesn’t have closer stuff, and the White Sox have multiple options better than him. From a middle relief standpoint, he doesn’t do enough in terms of strikeouts or improving ratios to help your fantasy team.
RPWoo Suk GoFASD(Updated 1/3) San Diego continues to add to its pen, and Go will be competing for ninth inning work along with Robert Suarez and Yuki Matsui. Go, 25, has compiled a 3.18 ERA, 139 saves, and 401 strikeouts across 368.1 IP in the KBO, spanning seven seasons. He boasts a mid-to-upper 90s fastball that he can locate in all parts of the zone, with enough velocity to beat major league hitters in the upper-third. Spring training should hopefully give us a clearer picture of who could differentiate themselves as “the guy” in the ninth, though this could be a murky situation for fantasy, as the Padres could rotate all three guys in the ninth, giving us the dreaded closer by committee.
RPJordan HicksTORSF(Updated 1/12) It’s been reported that the Giants are going to extend Hicks out as a starter, which is certainly a choice. In the majors, he’s started eight games since 2018, posting a 5.47 ERA and 1.56 WHIP across those 26.1 IP. In 2023, his overall numbers were solid, despite his 3-9 record. His strikeout rate dipped when he went to Toronto, but for the 2023 season as a whole, he posted a career-best 28.4 percent strikeout rate and 30.9 O-Swing%. It was also the second time in his entire career he posted a double-digit swinging strike rate (10.6%). It’s hard to make it as a two-pitch starter, but he has three reliable options, and last year, his sweeper posted a massive 59.5 percent whiff rate! Hicks’ arsenal lends itself to a ton of ground balls, and when you combine that with his new home park, home runs will not be an issue for Hicks. On a per inning basis, Hicks could be an interesting fantasy asset, but I’m worried about the switch back to a starter after effectively being a full time reliever for the past half-decade. He hasn’t thrown more than 80 innings in a season since 2017 (105 IP in the minors), and since entering the bigs, his highest is 77.2 IP in 2018. It’s not guaranteed that he’ll be a starter, but the plan is to stretch him out as such. Even if all goes well, I can’t imagine they push him much past 100-110 IP in 2024.
RPBrent SuterCOLCIN(Updated 1/15) After spending seven years in Milwaukee, Suter went to Colorado last year, and believe it or not, he survived Coors. He posted a 3.38 ERA (3.18 xERA, 3.44 FIP) with a miniscule 0.39 HR/9, the lowest of his career. Of course the junkballer goes to the game’s best park for hitters and posts the lowest HR/9 of his career! His ground ball rate was slightly above his career mark, but a sizable drop in his HR/FB rate can be attributed to his uncanny ability to limit hard contact last season. He posted an average exit velocity in the 100th percentile, a barrel rate in the 97th percentile, and a hard hit rate in the 99th percentile, per Baseball Savant. He has a four-pitch mix, and will comfortably throw three to both lefties and righties, and his changeup is far and away his best pitch. His lack of strikeouts and ninth inning work will keep him off the fantasy radar for the most part, but in reality this a fine addition for the Cincy pen.
RPRobert StephensonTBLAA(Updated 1/21) After a rocky start with Pittsburgh to begin the season, Stephenson ended the year on a high note with the Rays, posting a 2.35 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, and 42.9 percent strikeout rate with the AL East club across 38.1 IP (42 appearances). His cutter and slider wreak havoc on opposing hitters, and lefties have to fear his splitter as well, which posted a .100 BAA and 42.2 percent whiff rate. Stephenson only has three saves in his entire career, but when he’s pitching well, he’s more than capable of closing out ball games for a big league club. Carlos Estevez closed out 31 games for the Angels last year, and only blew four saves, but Stephenson and his $11 million could contend for save chances should Estevez slip up. Stephenson has the better arsenal between the two, both in reality and for fantasy purposes. If you had to ask me, Stephenson will notch more saves than Estevez in 2024.
RPMatt MooreMIALAA(Updated 1/24) The Angels continue to overhaul its bullpen and they bring back a familiar face with Moore. Moore began the 2023 season with the club, posting a 2.66 ERA and 28 percent strikeout rate across 44 IP (41 appearances). Moore has been excellent as a reliever over the last two seasons, posting a 2.20 ERA and 1.17 WHIP since becoming a full time reliever in 2022. He’s posted a swinging strike rate of at least 13 percent each of the last two years, and slight adjustments to his pitch mix have also allowed him to get batters to leave the zone quite often (38.4% O-Swing% in 2023). Moore won’t be closing games in 2024 for the Angels, but he should be a valuable asset in leagues that value holds, as he should be entrusted to hold leads, and he can certainly help your team’s ratios.
RPWandy PeraltaNYYSD(Updated 1/31) Peralta’s changeup and sinker dominant arsenal produces a ton of ground balls, and over the last three seasons, he’s posted a ground ball rate of at least 55 percent in each season. On top of that, his changeup posted a 36.8 percent whiff rate last season, and his slider is another putaway pitch he has in his repertoire. Peralta has never recorded more than five saves in a season, but he’s been a quality reliever the past few seasons, who will go to a more pitcher-friendly park than Yankee Stadium. From a fantasy standpoint, he should get plenty of holds for San Diego, but there’s plenty of competition for saves already with the likes of Robert Suarez, Yuki Matsui, and Woo Suk Go. Peralta is incredibly tough on left-handed hitters, and with multiple player opt outs in his deal, he can essentially bet on himself each year.
RPShintaro FujinamiBALNYM(Updated 2/2) Fujinami really struggled with his command in Oakland, and upon heading to Baltimore, it got a little bit better, albeit still way too high. In 30 appearances with the Orioles, he recorded two wins, two saves, a 4.85 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP. The hard-throwing righty could be a intriguing add for the New York bullpen if they can hardness his command. He has four pitches in his arsenal, each of which can miss bats when needed, but a lack of swings outside of the zone plagued him. If the Mets can eat into his 12.6 percent walk rate from last season, he could be valuable piece as a middle reliever, but from a fantasy standpoint, his value is nonexistent. Low-risk signing here for the Mets.
RPPhil MatonHOUTB(Updated 2/3) Maton is getting better with age and his 2023 season was arguably the best of his professional career. While posting a 4-3 record across 66 IP, he logged a 3.00 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 27 percent strikeout rate. He has a lively fastball, but over the past few seasons, he’s been trading usage on that for his curveball and new-ish sweeper. His curveball is easily his best pitch, and last season, it resulted in a .169 BAA and 36.4 percent whiff rate! He had a rough end to the season, but he’s a quality reliever that will help bridge the gap to Pete Fairbanks. He won’t be overly useful in fantasy, as he doesn’t project to see many save opportunities in 2024, but this is a quality addition in reality for the Rays.
RPRyan BrasierLALA(Updated 2/5) Brasier had a rough start to the year in 2023 with the Red Sox, but once he went to the Dodgers, he was as dominant as they come. In 38.2 IP with the Dodgers in the regular season last year, Brasier went 2-0 with 10 holds, one save, a 0.70 ERA and 38:10 K/BB ratio. Opponents struggled to barrel him up last season, and once he got to L.A., he incorporated a cutter into his pitch mix, resulting in a .152 BAA. His slider generates plenty of whiffs, and his sinker generated a 63.6 percent ground ball rate last season. With the Dodgers trading Caleb Ferguson to the Yankees, Brasier figures to operate in the seventh inning role ahead of Brusdar Graterol and Evan Phillips in 2024. He may see a spare save chance here and there, but not enough to be useful in those regards for fantasy purposes.
RPJakob JunisSFMIL(Updated 2/6) After Milwaukee traded away Corbin Burnes, it was likely they were going to make some sort of move to add another arm to its rotation. In 2023, Junis was primarily a reliever for the Giants, only making four starts, but back in 2022, he worked primarily as a starter. Last year, again, primarily as a reliever, he upped the usage on his slider to new levels, and it resulted in a .216 BAA and 32.5 percent whiff rate. His 26.2 percent strikeout rate, 31.2 percent chase rate, and 27.2 percent whiff rates were all career bests, and expect the usage on that pitch to remain elevated as a starter in 2024. The veteran righty has always had solid command, but he can’t live off just his slider as a starter, and despite some decent ERA numbers over the past two seasons, his sinker has been pummeled. One of Junis’ non-slider offerings will need to step up for him to have sustained success as a starter, but at the very least, he does have one solid pitch in his back pocket he can rely on. He’s a fine target in the later rounds to give your team some innings, but an ERA in the mid-to-low 4s with an ERA that likely drops below one strikeout per inning seems to be on the horizon for Junis in 2024.
RPLou TrivinoNYYNYY(Updated 2/15) Trivino wasn’t the headliner of the 2022 trade that sent he and Frankie Montas to the Yankees, but he pitched like it in 2022. After being acquired by the Bronx Bombers, Trivino went on to post a 1.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 21.2 IP for the Yankees, but missed all of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Back in 2022, Trivino’s slider registered a .109 BAA and 46.9 percent whiff rate, while his changeup notched a 32.6 percent whiff rate. His arsenal runs six pitches deep, and a solid ground ball rate helps him avoid major damage. Trivino isn’t a player who will be needed for fantasy production, but a healthy Trivino is a great addition to the Yankee bullpen.
RPScott AlexanderSFOAK(Updated 2/15) Alexander is a proven arm that will set up in the latter innings of the Oakland pen in a middle relief or setup role. Last year for the Giants, he went 7-3 with a 4.66 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, six holds, and one save. He did a solid job avoiding hard contact (83rd percentile) and the barrel of the opposition (94th percentile), though a fourth percentile strikeout rate and seventh percentile whiff rate will suppress any fantasy appeal from him. His sinker-led arsenal generates a ton of ground balls, and despite his two non-fastball offerings each posting a whiff rate of at least 34 percent last year, his strikeout rate was in the low teens! Alexander is a better arm in reality than in fantasy, so while it was a good move by Oakland, it won’t provide much production for fantasy managers in 2024.
SP
Shohei Ohtani
LAA
LA
(Updated 12/9): The biggest domino has fallen. Ohtani signs for $700M over the next 10 years to join the Dodgers. While he won't pitch in 2024, he should be ready to begin the year, and he'll now join a lineup that features Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Will Smith, amongst others. Ohtani has two MVP awards under his belt, and this Dodgers lineup should be the strongest supporting cast he's had in recent seasons, and perhaps ever. Ohtani was a fantasy force last season, hitting .304 with 44 home runs and 20 stolen bases, and over the last three years, he has a .379 OBP and .585 SLG. The elbow shouldn't be a major detractor to his offensive numbers in 2024, making him a surefire first round pick in fantasy baseball drafts. Sure, he can only be played at the UT spot, but 40+ home runs, 15+ stolen bases, and a sky-high OBP will play, regardless of position.
SP
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
FA
LA
(Updated 12/22) The Dodgers continue their spending spree and add a potential fantasy ace to its rotation. Yamamoto has thrown at least 160 IP in three straight seasons, while putting forth 15+ wins and a sub-2.00 ERA in each of those seasons. He’s over a strikeout per innings for his career, and he has stuff that should translate well to the MLB. Yamamoto will have a great offense backing him, and he’s only 25 years old, not turning 26 until August of 2024. The right-hander has solid velocity on his fastball, with a splitter and curveball that will make batters look silly. He’ll need to adjust to the pitching schedule in the MLB, but he has a nasty pitch mix that should make him a top 25 starter in fantasy at the lowest.
SP
Blake Snell
SD
SF
(Updated 3/18) The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner finally inks a deal, signing a two-year deal with the Giants that includes an opt out after the first season. Snell was terrific in his Cy Young campaign last season, posting a 14-9 record with a 2.25 ERA across 180 IP. Naturally, he posted his best statistical season of his career and won some hardware, but did so while posting a career-high 13.3 percent walk rate and massive 86.7 percent strand rate. Snell will pitch with a good defense backing him in a pitcher friendly park, though that won’t fix his walk issues.Despite a 2.72 ERA over the last two seasons, he has a 3.17 FIP, 3.45 xFIP, and 3.69 SIERA. The veteran left-hander can miss bats with the best of them, and he’s posted a strikeout rate of at least 30 percent in each of the last six seasons. It might take him a bit to get ramped up, since he’s had zero spring training work to date, but the Giants land another frontline starter to give them a 1-2 punch of Logan Webb and Snell. Ideally, Snell can cut back on the walks a bit to not do some damage to your team’s ratios, but overall, this is a pretty solid landing spot for Snell for fantasy purposes. I don’t envision him repeating his numbers from last year, especially in the ERA department, but a 1.25 WHIP and a 30+ percent strikeout rate is about the status quo for Snell these days.
SP
Aaron Nola
PHI
PHI
After his third straight season with at least 180 IP, Nola cashes in on a big time deal to stay with the Phillies. It was reported he turned down more money elsewhere to stay with the team that drafted him in the first round of the 2014 Draft. Nola’s 4.46 ERA in 2023 may not he the most impressive, but his 3.77 xERA, 4.03 FIP, and 3.63 xFIP indicate he may have been a bit unlucky. However, his 1.49 HR/9 was the highest mark of his career, as was his average exit velocity and barrel rate. While he was hit around a bit, he maintained excellent marks in terms of swings out of the zone, and his 11.8 SwStr% marks the seventh-straight season he was in the double digits. A strong postseason helped some forget a rough final 26.1 IP of the regular season, but Nola can be trusted as a low-end SP1 or high-end SP2 in 2024.
SP
Eduardo Rodriguez
DET
ARI
(Updated 12/7): After reportedly nixing a trade to the Dodgers, Rodriguez will stick it to them again by going to the Diamondbacks, who also just so happen to reside in the NL West. After a rocky first season in Detroit, Rodriguez was phenomenal in 2023, posting a 13-9 record with a 3.30 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 152.2 IP. Compared to prior seasons, he used his four-seam fastball more frequently at the expense of his sinker, and really committed to his changeup. Rodriguez’s changeup posted a .233 BAA and 31.7 percent whiff rate in 2023, and per Baseball Savant’s Run Values metric, graded out as an above average pitch for the southpaw. Leaving the pitcher friendly confines of the American League Central are a talking point for sure, but he doesn’t lose much fantasy value by way of his new home park. Rodriguez feels like a guy who should record more strikeouts than he actually does, and maybe if he used his slider a bit more, that would actually happen. However, he should eat up innings in Arizona’s rotation this season, and with a steady dosage of ground balls, provide another quality season from a fantasy standpoint, thanks to a more potent offense backing him, leading him to more wins. If he pitches like he did last year, and stays healthy, there’s a world where Rodriguez wins 15 games with a sub-3.75 ERA. Think shades of 2019…
SP
Clayton Kershaw
LA
LA
(Updated 2/6) Kershaw comes back for yet another season with the Dodgers. The future Hall of Famer underwent surgery on his shoulder after the season, and Los Angeles will be without him on the mound until the latter half of the 2024 season. Kershaw went 13-5 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 24 regular season starts last season, and despite what seems like a yearly trip to the injured list at this point in his career, he’s posted an ERA below 3.00 in more seasons in his career than he hasn’t. His curveball gets a ton of love, but his slider just might be better, and last year, it resulted in a .167 BAA and 36.2 percent whiff rate. If your league has IL spots, you could draft-and-stash Kershaw for when he makes his debut later on in 2024. However, keep in mind that there are going to a lot of moving parts in his return, and the Dodgers are going to ensure everything they do has him fully healthy for October baseball. When on the mound, he’s still very, very reliable for fantasy managers, but injuries are taking a toll on Kershaw, so his return could be a bit slower than it might have been in his younger years.
SP
Marcus Stroman
CHI
NYY
(Updated 1/12) Stroman will average just under $19M the next two years in the Bronx, and there’s also a vesting option for a third year. After not pitching in 2020, Stroman logged 179 IP in 2021, but injuries have limited him to under 140 IP in each of the last two seasons. Over the last two seasons with the Cubs, he’s posted a 3.73 ERA (3.67 FIP) with a 1.20 WHIP and 13.1 K-BB%. His groundball rate rebounded last year, and his 57.1 percent ground ball rate was his highest mark since posting 62.1 percent back in 2018 with the Blue Jays! Through his first 16 starts, Stroman was dominant, posting a 2.28 ERA and 9-4 record. His final nine starts resulted in an 8.29 ERA, though he had a 4.23 FIP and 4.17 xFIP, and he did miss time down the stretch with a right hip issue. The veteran right-hander will look to recapture that first half magic from last year with the Yankees, and as long as he continues to be a ground ball machine, I wouldn’t worry about home runs becoming an issue in Yankee Stadium for him. He’ll need some good defense from the Yankees with all the ground balls he’ll induce, but the offense should give him plenty of runs, leading to wins. Stroman is a value at his current ADP, even with his average-at-best strikeout rate, but I’d expect his move to New York to inflate his ADP a bit. However, he’s still a solid fantasy arm that can help your ratios, but you’ll want to account for his strikeouts, or lack thereof, throughout your other arms.
SP
Lance Lynn
LA
STL
The Cardinals were going to make a move, if not more, to help the rotation, and Lynn is the first domino to fall for them in their list of needs to address. Lynn was a workhorse last year, logging 183.2 IP across 32 starts, both of which were his highest marks since the 2019 season. However, his 2.16 HR/9, 10.4 percent barrel rate and 19 percent HR/FB ratio were uncharacteristically bad. While his ERA and BABIP were incredibly better in Los Angeles compared to Chicago, home runs were still an issue for him, and the strikeouts completely disappeared. His pitch mix changed a bit upon the move to LA, highlighted by the near-complete disappearance of his curveball, while spiking the use of his sinker, which was actually good quite in the final month of the regular season. The Cardinals’ home park should help Lynn out a bit, especially with left-handed power. For fantasy purposes, Lynn will be viewed as a bounce back candidate in 2024, as he goes to the NL Central and a pitcher-friendly park, with the hopes of proving that 2023 was an outlier.
SP
Sonny Gray
MIN
STL
While his K/9 was below nine for the second year in a row, Gray was excellent in Minnesota in 2023, despite what his win-loss record says. Yes, he went 8-8, but that 2.79 ERA 2.69 BB/9, and 1.15 WHIP were excellent. His expected statistics indicate that his ERA should have been more in the mid-3’s, but that 2.83 FIP is right on par with his ERA. His 0.39 HR/9 was the lowest of his career, and his ground ball rate of 47.3 percent is better than last year’s 44.5 percent mark, and much closer to his career average that is up over 51 percent. Gray deployed a slightly different pitch mix in 2023 compared to recent years, as he dropped the usage on his sinker and curveball, opting to throw his sweeper and cutter more. He still uses his sinker and curveball a bit, but the sweeper became his number two, and was lethal against hitters, resulting in a .097 BAA, .135 xBA, and 41.3 percent whiff rate! In fact, per Baseball Savant’s Run Value metric, Gray’s sweeper was one of the 10-best pitches in baseball, and the best of its kind in the game. While I have some questions around the Cardinals giving him $25M per year, I understand that pitchers will likely command more than we may believe they are worth, and the hope for Gray is that the Cardinals continue to play solid defense behind him, and they bounce back after a tumultuous 2023 season that saw them vastly underperform. If the offense is there for him, Gray should be a relatively safe bet to reach 10+ wins for the first time since 2019, while helping your fantasy team with ratios. He can be drafted as an SP3 this season, and let’s hope for another year of good health, so that he can get to 170+ IP for the second straight season, which is actually something he hasn’t done since 2014 and 2015.
SP
Jordan Montgomery
TEX
ARI
(Updated 3/25) Despite a 6-9 record as a member of the Cardinals, Montgomery posted a respectable 3.42 ERA, and then once he was traded to Texas, he posted a 4-2 record with a 2.79 ERA across 11 starts. Then, across 31 IP in the postseason, he logged a 2.90 ERA and 3-1 record, despite a measly 12.6 percent strikeout rate. Think what you want of Scott Boras, but Arizona pounced, and added a quality starter to an already formidable rotation. Eduardo Rodriguez has a bit of a lat issue, and Montgomery provides another proven arm to help steady the ship while E-Rod is out. Montgomery will need some time to build up his stamina, and while this isn’t the ideal offseason for a guy who logged a career high workload last year (219 IP between regular season and postseason), he should be a steady fantasy presence for a good Arizona team. The veteran southpaw will help your fantasy team’s ratios, and assuming he doesn’t take too long to get ramped up, he’s in line to best last year’s career-best 10 wins in a season. Is 12 wins and a 3.50 ERA too much to ask?
SP
Brandon Woodruff
MIL
MIL
(Updated 2/19) Woodruff missed nearly four months of the 2023 season due a shoulder issue, but upon his return to the mound, he was solid. He posted a 1.67 ERA over his final four starts of the season, and he allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last nine starts. His changeup remained elite last year, posting a 38 percent whiff rate, and while he used his curveball less than recent years, it remained solid, notching a .182 BAA and 40.9 percent whiff rate. Offseason surgery will almost assuredly cost him all of 2024, but eyes will be back on the prize in 2025 for Woodruff.
SP
Luis Severino
NYY
NYM
Severino was an ace with the Yankees for many years prior to his implosion in 2023. After pitching just 18 innings from 2019-2021, Severino posted a 7-3 record with a 3.18 ERA and 9.88 K/9 across 102 innings in 2022. Then, 2023 rolled around, and Severino logged a 6.65 ERA, 2.32 HR/9, and 10.4 percent barrel rate across 89.1 IP. Was it age and injury catching up to him? Perhaps, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the velocity of his heater. There’s some considerable risk here, but the reward is immense, especially if Severino can return to prime Severino. Over his final five starts last year, he did manage to post a 3.16 ERA and 50 percent ground ball rate, so maybe he was finally righting the ship. He did increase the usage of his cutter and sinker over the final two months of the year, not to mention increases nearly across the board on his spin rates, which was right around the time he started seeing better results on the mound. The Mets have a lot to do with their rotation still, but there are worse moves to make than taking a flier on Severino, who only turns 30 in February and gets a slight upgrade in terms of home park. I’m sure the team wanted the deal to be closer to $10M than the $13M they inked on paper, but to the Mets, what’s a couple of million dollars?
SP
Alex Wood
SF
OAK
(Updated 2/3) On a one-year deal, Wood provides a veteran presence with plenty of big league innings in the Oakland rotation. However, Wood has also missed time on the injured list in every season dating back to 2016, and he hasn’t pitched more than 150 innings in a season since 2018. He was limited to just 97.2 IP last year, as he missed time due to hamstring and back issues, and he actually made more appearances as a reliever (17) than as a starter (12). Last year, he posted a 6.08 ERA as a starter, compared to a 2.68 ERA and 1.27 WHIP as a reliever. His strikeout rate tumbled last year, but he was only a few percentage points off his career average, and while he used his changeup more last season, further development of that pitch, and maybe a bit more of his slider can help tick up his strikeout rate closer to 20 percent. While he’s a lock for innings in this rotation, he doesn’t miss a ton of bats, and wins will likely be few and far between pitching for Oakland. Tread carefully if you are drafting Wood for anything more than innings, as he’s had a tough past couple of seasons.
SP
Carlos Carrasco
NYM
CLE
(Updated 1/28) After a productive 2022 season, it went downhill for Carrasco in 2023. On top of a porous 3-8 record, he posted a 6.80 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, and his strikeout and walk rates trended in the wrong direction. As you can expect, he allowed a lot of hard contact, more contact overall, and his 10.9 percent swinging strike rate was his lowest since 2013! Furthermore, he was constantly behind hitters, as his 59 percent first pitch strike rate was his lowest since 2011, and he got worse the more times he worked through the lineup. Carrasco heads back to where his big league career began, and he signed a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. I’m not envisioning a good enough of a bounceback season for the soon-to-be 37 year old right-hander to be on your fantasy radar.
SP
Lucas Giolito
CLE
BOS
(Updated 3/5) Giolito hurt his elbow in spring training and his 2024 season is now in jeopardy to say the least. Tough blow to the Boston starting rotation. (Written 12/29) Let’s get this out of the way, first and foremost. Coming off an 8-15 season and his second year in a row with an ERA of at least 4.88, Giolito did quite good for himself here. While it’s a two-year deal, there’s an opt out after the 2024 season, effectively giving Giolito the beloved contract year narrative this year. He pitched for three teams last season and was bad with all of them, to be blunt. Home runs have always been a problem with Giolito but last year’s 2.0 HR/9 was off the charts, and his 41 home runs allowed trailed only Lance Lynn (44). His fastball was bludgeoned last season, so he’ll need to fix that.
SP
Kyle Gibson
BAL
STL
As a team, the Cardinals starting rotation had the second-lowest K/9 (6.92) and strikeout rate (17.4%) in Major League Baseball last season. Now, they fork over $12M to Gibson who had a 7.36 K/9 and 19.5 percent strikeout rate across 192 IP in 2023, the most he’s thrown in a season since 2018 (196.2 IP). He doesn’t miss bats, and he’s posted an ERA north of 4.70 in four of the last five seasons. He does generate a healthy number of ground balls, which allows him to keep the ball in the park, but his ground ball rate has dipped below 50 percent for two straight seasons now. Left-handed hitters crushed Gibson in 2023, and his production deteriorated as the season went on, but after injuries have ravaged the St. Louis rotation in recent seasons, it’s understandable that they have prioritized some more durable arms thus far in free agency. Gibson is a low-end fantasy starter at best, who may get some streamer appeal as the year goes on in the right matchups if he’s pitching well.
SP
Kenta Maeda
MIN
DET
Maeda missed all of 2022 due to undergoing Tommy John surgery, but prior to that season, he was a reliable arm that posted over a strikeout per inning, and was good for 120+IP. His role fluctuated a bit with the Dodgers after the 2016 season, but he worked primarily as a starter in Minnesota. After a bad start against the Yankees in April and missing the next two months, Maeda posted a 6-4 record with a 3.36 ERA (3.93 FIP), 10.49 K/9 and 2.55 BB/9 across 88.1 innings of work. Maeda’s pitch mix is led by his splitter, which he featured more in the latter months of the season, and he even opted to use his four-seamer more at the expense of his slider usage, which dropped each of the month of the season upon his return. Home runs were a bit of an issue for him last year, largely in part to the unhelpful combination of a career high fly ball rate and hard hit rate, but his home park may help mitigate a few home runs, which would help fantasy managers immensely. The veteran right-hander continues to generate a healthy number of swings out of the zone, and he’s now posted a swinging strike rate of at least 11.5 percent in every season of his career. If the Tigers offense doesn’t improve, run support could be a bit of a problem, but he’s going to a good division for pitchers, making him a somewhat intriguing flier in the back end of your fantasy rotation.
SP
Wade Miley
MIL
MIL
Updated 12/4: Miley declined his half of the mutual option earlier in November, but he’s now returned to Milwaukee for another season. Across 23 starts last year, spanning 120.1 IP, he posted a 9-4 record at the young age of 36, while posting the lowest ERA of his career (3.14) since his first stint in Milwaukee in 2018 (2.57). He won’t help fantasy managers whatsoever in the strikeout department, meaning that you are hoping for a solid ERA and a reliable amount of innings from the veteran southpaw. Last year’s 16.1 percent strikeout rate was his lowest in the last half-decade, and I can’t help but stare at his 4.36 xERA. He allowed some higher batted ball metrics than one would like, and his fly ball rate has been increasing year over year. Home runs got to him a bit last year, and if he continues to allow fly balls, the elevated hard contact rates are going to push his ERA closer to where his FIP and expected metrics reside. Miley’s spot is safe in the rotation, as Milwaukee needs some steady presences there, but regression is in store for Miley in 2024, as his profile doesn’t lend itself to a third straight season with an ERA under 3.50, especially when his FIP hasn’t below 3.50 in a season since 2012.
SP
Erick Fedde
WSH
CWS
(Updated Dec. 6) A $15M deal is pretty good for Fedde, considering that prior to going to the KBO last year, he was 21-33 with a 5.41 ERA in the MLB with the Washington Nationals. I won’t sugarcoat it. He was great in the KBO, going 20-6, striking out well over a batter per inning, and hardly walking anyone. He was a strikeout and ground ball machine over there, and that’s a recipe for success no matter where you play. Now, the question is whether or not he can replicate that in the MLB. He’s practically free in drafts, so he’s worth a late round flier in deeper formats, but I’m going to base my thoughts off his six years in the MLB, compared to the one year in the KBO. While I think he will be better than what he was in 2021 and 2022, thanks to some newfound confidence, he still profiles to be an average starter at best, with an ERA likely in the mid-4s. It’s a good division for pitchers, so that should help.
SP
Seth Lugo
SD
KC
(Updated 12/12) Lugo wanted to get back into the rotation after a handful of seasons primarily as a reliever, and he was great for San Diego and fantasy managers alike. He logged a career high 146.1 IP, while posting a 3.57 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 27.7 percent CSW%. Lugo used his changeup a bit more last year than in years past, but his ground ball rate remained north of 45 percent, marking the third time in the last four seasons he achieved that feat. Kauffman Stadium grades out a bit more hitter friendly than Petco Park, especially in terms of hits overall, but not for home runs. Strikeouts are down in that park, too, but fortunately, he might be going to the division that has been super friendly to pitchers for what seems years, providing optimism in Lugo maintaining a strikeout rate in the low-to-mid twenties. He’ll need some help from Kansas City’s offense to rack up wins, and there are safer bets in fantasy baseball than banking on a 34-year-old righty coming off a career high workload. However, as a starter, Lugo provides a safe floor for fantasy managers, as he doesn’t hand out walks, should keep your team’s ratios in check, and to his credit, 17 of his 26 starts were at least six innings, and he completed five innings in 22 of 26 last season.
SP
Tyler Mahle
MIN
TEX
(Updated 12/14) The Rangers are hoping that Mahle returns to full health following Tommy John surgery, and if that’s the case, this contract could turn out to be a bargain over the next couple seasons. He went under the knife in May of 2023, so a return sometime in mid-to-late summer looks likely for the right-hander. He was limited to just 25.2 IP last season, so we likely can’t glean much from the year, but he did post a 3.16 ERA with an excellent 4.9 percent walk rate. Compared to 2022, he brought the usage of his slider back, and that pitch was good for a .219 BAA and 25.5 percent whiff rate last year. Mahle’s strikeout rate has remained pretty consistent over the past couple of years, but he is getting a bit of a park downgrade going from Target Field to Globe Life Field. Overall, he’ll be cheap on draft day, so if your league has IL spots, you could take a late round flier on him or pick him up, but coming back from a serious surgery like Tommy John is far from a sure thing. If Mahle and Jacob deGrom return to full health from the surgery, the Texas rotation could be a formidable force.
SP
Michael Wacha
SD
KC
(Updated 12/15) Of pitchers with at least 250 IP over the last two seasons, Wacha is one of 15 pitchers to have won 25 games, and his 3.27 ERA over the last two seasons is the 22nd-best mark in Baseball, better than the likes of Spencer Strider, George Kirby, and Loga Gilbert. While he’s pitched at least 124 IP in each of the last three seasons, he hasn’t surpassed 135 IP since 2017. Wacha has relied on his changeup, and last year was the first time where he threw it more than any other pitch in his repertoire, resulting in a .207 BA (.189 xBA) and 35.9 percent whiff rate. He continues to use his sinker more as well, and hopefully it can improve upon last year’s 37.9 percent ground ball rate, as he could really use a ground ball machine in his pitch mix. Kauffman Stadium plays more favorably to hitters than Petco Park, but he was successful in Fenway in 2022, so I wouldn’t be overly concerned about the home park. With an opt-out after the first year, this is effectively a prove-it deal for Wacha, and he should really enjoy pitching in the American League Central.
SP
Chris Flexen
COL
CWS
(Updated 12/29) Following a borderline dominant 2020 year in the KBO, Flexen was solid, all things considered, in 2021 and 2022 for the Seattle Mariners. However, the train came off the track in 2023, as he served up a 2.20 HR/9 across 102.1 IP, not to mention a 1.67 WHIP and a career-high 9.4 percent barrel rate. Despite having seven pitches in his repertoire, per Baseball Savant, he’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher against right-handed hitters, and righties slashed .345/.400/.625 against him last season. Flexen could win one of the back end spots in the team’s rotation with a strong camp, but he could be the de facto sixth starter. Regardless of his role, he doesn’t have a profile worth buying into for fantasy purposes, as he’s pitching for a bad team and doesn’t do enough in terms of strikeouts or ratio improvement to warrant one of your precious roster spots.
SP
Frankie Montas
NYY
CIN
(Updated 12/29) The Reds are taking a $16M gamble that Montas will be healthy enough to give them quality innings in 2024, and maybe even return to the quality arm he was in Oakland, especially the 2019 or 2021 versions of himself. He’s had issues with his right shoulder most notably over the past two seasons, which limited him to just 41 regular season innings with the New York Yankees. When healthy, Montas has a sinker and splitter that will generate a ton of ground balls, which are two weapons he should utilize to keep him out of harm's way in Great American Ball Park. He has a career 24.2 percent strikeout rate, which is solid, but when you look at some of his other metrics, i.e. his swinging strike rate and O-Swing rate, there seems to be some meat left on the bone in the strikeout department. It’s going to come down to health with Montas, as he’s pitched in more than 100 innings just twice since entering the bigs back in 2015. It’s an expensive gamble for the Reds, but sometimes a one-year prove it deal is exactly what the doctor orders for a player with health concerns. Montas is practically free in drafts, so he’s worth a shot in the later rounds of deeper formats, as the Reds will hope he can provide some stability in its rotation.
SP
Zach Plesac
CLE
LAA
(Updated 12/31) The 2023 season was one to forget for Plesac, as he spent the majority of the season down in Triple-A. The team sent him down to Triple-A after he posted a 7.59 ERA and 1.97 WHIP through his first five starts of the season. Despite his 3-12 record, he was somewhat serviceable, posting a 4.31 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, though his dearth of strikeouts tank his overall fantasy appeal. He should compete for a spot in the starting rotation, and with a strong spring, he could win of the final spots. However, he’s not a big strikeout guy and won’t help your ratios too much, making him nothing more than a late round flier in AL-only formats.
SP
Dakota Hudson
STL
COL
(Updated 1/5) After spending the first six seasons of his career with the Cardinals, Hudson will head to Colorado, with the likelihood of occupying one of the team’s final spots in the rotation. Heading to Coors is terrifying for a pitcher and their fantasy value, and while I think Hudson will feel some of those effects, home runs have never been a big issue for him. He’s a ground ball machine, and has only allowed a fly ball rate north of 30 percent one time (2020) in his entire career. You can’t hit home runs on the ground! He’s a sinker-slider guy, and his fastball even does a solid job inducing ground balls, likely because he keeps it in the lower third of the zone. However, with all that in mind, his fantasy value is nearly nonexistent. While Coors Field won’t decimate him like it can to other pitchers, he doesn’t do enough otherwise to warrant any serious fantasy consideration. His strikeout rate has dropped each of the last three seasons, and last season, he posted a 12.7 percent strikeout rate! His swinging strike rate did manage to jump to 8.6 percent, his highest mark in the past three seasons, but of pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched last year, his 92 percent zone contact rate was the fourth-highest, and his 81.8 percent contact rate overall was the 20th-lowest. He’s a pitch to contact guy who doesn’t miss bats heading to Coors Field. Draft accordingly.
SP
Sean Manaea
SF
NYM
(Updated 1/7) It’s a two-year deal for Manaea, but he can opt out after the 2024 season, so, he gets himself an opportunity to cash in more if he pitches well this year for the Mets. At first glance, his marks from last season don’t look all that impressive, as he posted a 4.44 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across 117.2 IP. However, the Giants yanked him back and forth between being a starter and a reliever, though his performances as a reliever spark some optimism. His velocity was up a tick, and his sweeper last year posted a .140 BAA and 35.1 percent whiff rate. He ended the year on a high note, posting a 2.61 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his final 51.2 IP, and across his final four starts, he posted a .220 AVG, 0.92 WHIP and 2.25 ERA! He should immediately slot in the team’s rotation, and he’s a nice bounce back pitcher to target later in drafts this season. I like the landing spot, I like what he showed down the stretch, and his sweeper gives him another weapon to put away opposing hitters. He’s a pitcher I’m looking to target in the later rounds.
SP
Shota Imanaga
FA
CHI
(Updated 1/10) It’s widely considered that Imanaga would have gone for a boatload more money if there were fewer concerns about his health. He had shoulder surgery a couple of years ago that gives some cause for concern for long-term durability, which is likely why you see such a complicated deal for an established arm. Imanaga is no spring chicken, as he’ll turn 31 in September, but he was a very accomplished pitcher overseas, posting a 3.18 ERA across eight seasons. Coming over to the states, he has two plus pitches, but like most pitchers in the majors, he’ll need one of his other pitches to step up. It’s really, really difficult to be great with just two plus pitches as a starter. If he can develop an at least average tertiary offering, he can be an effective starter, because he doesn’t put himself in bad spots by handing out free passes. He lives around the plate, and hopefully he can induce a lot of ground balls with his splitter! I’m wary of where his strikeout rate will sit in his first year as the majors, but he’s a serviceable back end fantasy starter, but keep a close eye on his pitch mix, and if he has anything effective beyond his fastball and splitter.
SP
James Paxton
BOS
LA
(Updated 1/23) After making just six starts between 2020-2022, the veteran southpaw posted a 4.50 ERA (3.82 xERA, 4.68 FIP) across 19 starts with the Red Sox last season. He struck out over one batter per inning, while registering a 12.7 percent swinging strike rate. Paxton ended the year on a rough note, allowing 16 earned runs over his last 9.2 IP of work, but prior to that, he had a 3.34 ERA and 9.69 K/9 through his first 16 starts of the season, going 7-3 in the process. Paxton isn’t exactly what the Los Angeles rotation needs, considering there are a lot of questions about workload and durability in the team’s rotation to begin with. However, the team will likely use a six-man rotation, so could that help Paxton stay healthy? The Dodgers are surely hoping so. When healthy, Paxton has a curveball and changeup that can still miss bats with the best of them, though he’s largely a two-pitch guy to LHH. I expect Paxton’s ADP to increase a bit since he’s going to the Dodgers, but health willing, he’ll be in a good position to help fantasy managers. He’s an interesting late round flier, but just know he’s good for at least one trip to the IL any given season.
SP
Spencer Turnbull
DET
PHI
(Updated 2/12) Turnbull had a solid showing in 2021, following a bounceback 2020 season, but ultimately ended up missing all of 2022, and then was limited to just seven starts last year before a neck injury cost him the rest of the season. After not pitching at all in 2022, Turnbull had a 7.26 ERA across seven starts last year, but most notably, 15 walks across those seven starts, resulting in a 10.3 percent walk rate. After multiple years as a starter in Detroit, Turnbull will be a long reliever in Philly, but he could make a spot start if needed. His arsenal runs six pitches deep, and he’s always generated a healthy number of ground balls, but he’s never been prolific at missing bats or minimizing hard contact. He’s a solid depth arm who should give the Phillies some innings this year in a hybrid starter/reliever role, but the innings won’t be as fruitful for fantasy managers.
SP
Michael Lorenzen
PHI
TEX
(Updated 3/21) Prior to heading to the Phillies at the deadline, Lorenzen was solid for the Tigers, posting a 3.58 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across 105.2 IP. Unlike in Detroit, Lorenzen wasn’t used exclusively as a starter in Philadelphia, and across 47.1 IP, he logged a 5.51 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and one save. He really struggled as a reliever last year, posting an 8.31 ERA in a very small sample size. However, at least to begin the season, with all of the injuries in the Texas rotation, if Lorenzen can get ramped up quickly enough, there’s a very real chance he holds down the fort as the team’s fifth starter until the likes of the team’s big-name arms return to full health. Reportedly, he worked up to 70 pitches on his own earlier in the week, so perhaps he isn’t too far behind those who have been in camp, all things considered. A dearth of strikeouts suppresses his fantasy value a bit, but hard to argue against the offense that will be backing him when he does take the rubber, especially if you just need some innings and some reliable ratios.
C
Mitch Garver
TEX
SEA
(Updated 12/27) After forming a 1-2 punch with Jonah Heim behind the dish for Texas in 2023, Garver will head to Seattle, in an attempt to replicate that with Cal Raleigh. Garver hit for both average and power last year, as his .270 average and .500 SLG across 87 games were excellent for fantasy managers. He punished left-handed pitching last year, to the tune of a .938 OPS, but he also posted a hearty .267 ISO versus righties. While he made a lot of hard contact, the biggest advancements were in his quantity of contact metrics, as he pushed his contact rate up to 79.6 percent, cut his swinging strike rate down to eight percent, and posted an O-Swing rate of just 21 percent! Given the state of affairs of the Seattle lineup, Garver figures to open the year as the primary DH for the Mariners, while catching on the days where the team opts to use Raleigh in the DH spot.
C
Gary Sánchez
SD
MIL
(Updated 2/8) Despite a lower batting average and OBP, which we should come to expect from Sanchez at this point, he was a revelation for San Diego last year, as he hit 19 home runs with a .500 SLG across 72 games for the Padres. In fact, his 12.63 AB/HR was the best amongst catcher with at least 250 plate appearances last season! The power is known with Sanchez, and he’ll run into 20+ home runs over a full season with relative ease for the most part. However, he’s a liability in terms of batting average and OBP, so fantasy managers have to stomach that. He won’t be the starting catcher in Milwaukee as William Contreras has that locked down, but Sanchez should serve as the backup, and potentially serve as the DH against left-handed pitchers on occasion, as Milwaukee’s outfield features multiple left-handed hitters. Just how many ABs will Sanchez receive is the question, and will largely determine his overall fantasy value. In NL-only formats, he’s worthy of a dart throw in the later rounds, because if he can carve out a role where he is playing more often than he isn’t, he should be fine from a power standpoint at American Family Field.
C
Austin Hedges
TEX
CLE
(Updated 12/10) At this point in his career, Hedges is what he is. He’s an excellent defensive catcher, but offensively, he won’t help you much. In 2017 and 2018, it looked like he was going to be a formidable option in fantasy formats, but since then, it just hasn’t been the case. He’s hit below the Mendoza line in five straight seasons, and during this five-year run, he has a 29.1 percent hard hit rate and .228 wOBA. Bo Naylor is the team’s primary catcher, but Hedges will be the backup, and provide excellent defensive metrics, as well as help out the pitchers. From a fantasy perspective, even if Naylor were to miss time, Hedges doesn’t do enough with the bat to warrant a roster spot.
C
Yasmani Grandal
CWS
PIT
(Updated 2/12) In 118 games last season for the White Sox, the veteran posted a .234/.309/.339 slash line with eight home runs, 33 runs scored, and 33 RBI. Grandal is just two years removed from a big 2021 campaign where he hit 23 home runs and posted a .420 OBP across just 93 games. His quality of contact metrics are slipping, and his 4.7 percent barrel rate and 87.9 mph average exit velocity were both the lowest marks he’s posted in a season since these numbers were tracked. His walk rate slipped a bit, likely due to the highest chase rate in the past half-decade, and while he isn’t the defender he once was, he should still help out the Pittsburgh arms a bit with his framing. He may not help a ton with throwing runners out, but he adds a veteran presence behind the dish, and could potentially help with the development of Henry Davis. This also means that fantasy managers may have to wait a bit longer for Davis to become eligible behind the dish, but hopefully the Pirates still give Davis the majority of the starts behind the dish.
C
Tom Murphy
SEA
SF
(Updated 12/18) From the catcher spot last season, the Giants had the second-highest strikeout rate, 10th-lowest average, and seventh-lowest wOBA. Is Murphy an elite offensive option? I wouldn’t say elite, but he hit eight home runs with 12 doubles and a .290/.335/.538 slash line across 47 games last year. He missed time last year with a thumb sprain and even if he was healthy, Cal Raleigh dominated the playing time behind the dish for Seattle. Patrick Bailey, Blake Sabol, and Joey Bart are still around, but Murphy getting just over $4M per year means he’ll be on the big league roster in some capacity. Murphy will give the Giants a big league ready catcher, and while the park isn’t overly favorable, we’ve seen Murphy run red hot in spurts, highlighted by his 18 home runs and .535 SLG back in 2019. Yes, that was a few years ago, but even last year, eight home runs across 47 games is a 20+ homer pace for a full season. If Murphy wins the job out of camp, he could be an intriguing sleeper behind the dish.
C
Curt Casali
CIN
MIA
(Updated 2/14) Casali inked a minors deal with the Marlins that includes an invitation to spring training, opening the door for the veteran backstop to earn a spot on the big league roster. Nick Fortes and Christian Bethancourt are projected to be the two catchers on the big league roster, and Casali’s offensive profile likely doesn’t do anything to force his way onto the roster. He’s been about average defensively the past couple of seasons, but last year, a 1.7 percent barrel rate and 26.7 percent hard hit rate were sixable dropoffs from years past. Is Father Time catching up to Casali? He couldn’t hit non-fastballs to save his live last year, and even with a strong spring, he doesn’t figure to have a prominent role, let alone being a reliable source of production for fantasy.
C
Victor Caratini
MIL
HOU
(Updated Dec. 6) Houston was going to address the backup catcher spot during free agency, and Caratini just so happens to be that guy. Despite hitting .259 last year with Milwaukee, he won’t provide all that much with the bat, seeing as he’s a career .236 hitter with a .120 ISO. He’ll make some contact, but nothing will really jump off the page. However, I will give him some credit, as he posted a career high average exit velocity last season (91.3 mph) and hard hit rate (44.7%). However, Yainer Diaz is this team’s starting catcher, and Caratini doesn’t figure to see steady at-bats on days where he isn’t giving Diaz a breather. Solid move in reality for the Astros, as Caratini is solid behind the dish in terms of receiving and framing pitches.
C
Martín Maldonado
HOU
CWS
(Updated 12/27) While playing in less than 130 games each of the past three seasons, Maldonado has managed to hit at least 12 home runs in each season, including 15 in each of the past two. However, his strikeout rate peaked at 34.2 percent last year, and he’s hit .183 over the last three seasons with a 66 wRC+. While heralded for his defense, his defensive metrics took a bit of a slide last season, highlighted by his first percentile framing metric (per Baseball Savant). He could win the starting job for the White Sox, but he hits lefties far better than righties, and his batting average is a massive drain for fantasy managers.
C
Jacob Stallings
MIA
COL
(Updated 1/5) Stallings is a solid backup backstop for the Rockies for the 2024 season. He won’t wow with the bat, and I’m unsure if even Coors Field can elevate his offensive profile. Over the last three seasons, he’s hit 15 home runs, posting a 64.07 AB/HR. To his credit, he did post the highest hard hit rate of his career, but it came at the expense of the second-highest ground ball rate (48.3%) of his career. Stallings hit just .191 last year, though I think he’ll fare better in 2024, as his plate discipline metrics are actually solid for the most part. Again, I don’t think Coors Field unleashes the offensive beast in Stallings, but he’s not posting a .249 BABIP again in 2024, so his numbers should be better. He’ll operate behind Elias Diaz as the team’s backup catcher.
1B
Rhys Hoskins
PHI
MIL
(Updated 1/24) A torn ACL cost Hoskins all of his 2023 season, but he found himself in a great spot for 2024 with the Brewers. It’s effectively a prove-it year for Hoskins who can opt out after the 2024 season, and in the last two seasons we saw Hoskins, he slashed .246/.333/.489 with 57 home runs and 62 doubles across 263 games. American Family Field actually can be quite lucrative for right-handed power, and Hoskins has no shortage of that. The veteran first baseman has posted a double-digit barrel rate in each of the last three seasons, and in 2020 and 2021, he had an xSLG north of .500! He saw his fly ball rate decrease to a career low 41.7 percent in 2022, but his career mark sits at 48.4 percent, so I’d expect some regression to the mean in 2024 for Hoskins. Hoskins is joining a solid Milwaukee lineup, which should help those counting stats, and he’s going to flirt with 30 home runs again in 2024. I’d expect a little bit of rust earlier, but from then on, it should be status quo for Hoskins, i.e. a lot of power for fantasy managers with a .240-.255 batting average and double-digit walk rate.
1B
Carlos Santana
MIL
MIN
(Updated 2/3) Santana spent time with Pittsburgh and Milwaukee last season, and across 146 total games, he slashed .240/.318/.429 with 23 home runs, 33 doubles, 78 runs scored, 86 RBI, and six stolen bases! All six stolen bases came during his time with Pittsburgh, but he really enjoyed his time in Milwaukee from a power perspective (11 HR, .459 SLG in 52 games with MIL). When with the Brewers, he demolished left-handed pitching, to the tune of a .973 OPS. Even as he continues to age and his quality of contact metrics slowly decrease, his plate discipline has remained strong, and in 2023, he posted an 82 percentile strikeout rate, and 76th percentile walk rate. He should have a prominent role when facing lefties, but could see some ABs against right-handers, depending on how Alex Kirilloff holds up. He becomes viable in AL-only formats, though he’s more valuable in leagues that value OBP.
1B
Christopher Cron
LAA
BOS
(Updated 3/1) After a few seasons in Colorado, Cron went to the Angels at the end of July, and honestly, that was the last we really heard of him in 2023. After hitting 11 home runs and slugging .476 with the Rockies, he hit just .200 in 15 games with the Angels. The power-hitting first baseman inked a minor league deal with the Red Sox, but with Triston Casas serving as the everyday first baseman, Cron’s best path to playing time at the big league level would be as the team’s DH, if they were to encounter injuries in its outfield. Cron has a career .813 OPS against left-handed pitching, and he’s posted a .483 SLG over the last three years. He could be an interesting pickup midseason for some pop if he were to see regular ABs, but that’s far from a guarantee.
1B
Garrett Cooper
SD
CHI
(Updated 2/25) After a year where Cooper hit a career-best 17 home runs and 61 RBI, he inks a minor league deal with the Chicago Cubs. His strikeout rate was closer to 30 percent than it had been in year’s past, and 6.8 percent walk rate was the lowest in his career where he played in more than 30 games. More fly balls and harder contact helped fuel the power output in 2023, but he left the zone more than ever before, and his 14.8 percent SwStr% was his highest since 2018. His current outlook for regular ABs in Chicago is going to be tricky, but he could be viewed as the platoon partner with Michael Busch at first base. For his career, Cooper has an .816 OPS and 120 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
1B
Rowdy Tellez
MIL
PIT
(Updated 12/12) Another offseason, another veteran first baseman heads to Pittsburgh. After a monster 2022 campaign where Tellez hit 35 home runs and posted a .461 SLG across 153 games, his 2023 season didn’t enjoy the same results. His strikeout rate increased, his hard contact and related metrics tumbled, and his 13.1 percent HR/FB ratio was the second-lowest mark of his entire career. Despite his strikeout rate increasing, he posted a career low 7.6 percent swinging strike rate, career best 80.1 percent contact rate, and the lowest O-Swing rate of his entire career! He cannot hit lefties, so he’ll play on the larger side of a platoon at first base for Pittsburgh. PNC Park gives him a slight upgrade to his home park, but if his hard contact metrics don’t return to his 2021 and 2022 marks, it ultimately won’t matter. He’s a late round source of cheap power at best heading into fantasy baseball drafts.
1B
Dominic Smith
WSH
CHI
(Updated 2/19) Smith got a full run of playing time in Washington last season, slashing .254/.326/.366 with 12 home runs, 57 runs scored, and 46 RBI across 153 games. He sacrificed some points off his batting average for more power after the All-Star break, and he posted a measly .588 OPS against left-handed pitching last season. Perhaps most impressive from his offensive profile last season was that while he maintained a solid walk rate, he dropped his strikeout rate to 15.5 percent. Prior to last year, his lowest strikeout rate was 22.3 percent back in 2019! However, unlike last year with Washington, Smith doesn’t have a regular role with the Cubs, and that’s even if he makes the big league roster. He isn’t someone you need to have on your radar at this juncture.
1B
Joseph Votto
CIN
TOR
(Updated 3/8) Votto surely isn’t the same player he once was, but he still gets on base a healthy amount, and he provides a much needed left-handed bat in the Toronto lineup. It was a right-handed dominant lineup, and Votto’s thump from the left-handed side will certainly help Toronto. Despite Votto hitting just .204 over the last two seasons, he’s still walking over 11 percent of the time, and he has a .317 OBP over the aforementioned stretch. Votto has hit lefties for a better average over the last two seasons, and in 2023, he actually posted a .289 ISO and .897 OPS versus southpaws! Votto will have a tough time cracking the Toronto lineup on a regular basis, especially with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Justin Turner handling first base and DH duties respectively.
2B
Whit Merrifield
TOR
PHI
(Updated 2/17) In 145 games with the Blue Jays in 2023, Merrifield slashed .272/.318/.382 with 11 home runs, 66 runs scored, and 26 stolen bases. His 10 caught stealing attempts tied for the most he’s had in a season in his entire career, and his sprint speed was in the 85th percentile or lower for the second straight season. Merrifield isn’t getting any younger, but he still makes a ton of contact, albeit underwhelming quality of contact metrics. He tends to fare better against right-handed pitching, but he’s no slouch against lefties either. His versatility will be of great benefit to the Phillies in 2024, though the majority of his playing time figures to come against lefties at one of the corner outfield spots, likely left field. If the Phillies were to catch the injury bug, Merrifield could be an intriguing fantasy add, as he’s shown that he can rack up stolen bases at a good clip and hit for a solid batting average.
2B
Adam Frazier
BAL
KC
(Updated 1/27) While his numbers don’t jump off the page, Frazier was quietly a key piece for the Orioles last year, and fantasy managers in AL-only setups as well. Across 141 games, Frazier slashed .240/.300/.396 with 13 home runs, 59 runs scored, 60 RBI, and 11 stolen bases. He’s never been a guy to make a lot of hard contact, highlighted by his career 2.0 percent barrel rate and 25.3 percent hard hit rate, and his bat-to-ball skills are slipping at his advanced age. His contact rate dipped to a career low 82 percent last year, while his swinging strike rate jumped to a career high 8.6 percent. He’ll provide a veteran presence to the Kansas City team, though his versatility will likely have him operating out of a utility role off the bench. He’s an injury away from regular at-bats in this lineup, but until that occurs, he’s off the fantasy radar.
2B
Tony Kemp
OAK
CIN
(Updated 2/25) Aside from his 15 stolen bases last season, Kemp didn’t give fantasy owners much to be excited about. His .303 OBP was far more palatable than his .209 batting average, and he only hit five home runs with 42 runs scored. He does a great job staying in the strike zone and making contact, but overall, his offensive profile is underwhelming. He heads to Cincy on a minor league deal, and his versatility could help Cincinnati if they were to catch the injury bug, as Kemp can play in the outfield or at second base. He won’t be much of a fantasy factor, especially with the ample depth Cincy currently has in its infield
3B
Matt Chapman
TOR
SF
(Updated 3/2) In his second season with Toronto, Chapman slashed .240/.330/.424 with 17 home runs, 66 runs scored, and 54 RBI across 140 games. While his power output was down in terms of his home run total, his 39 doubles were the second-most he’s put forth in a season, and his .240 average was his highest since 2019, which was arguably the best year of his career. He’s still an excellent defender, even if some of the metrics are down from year’s past, and he’s an impact bat at the hot corner for the Giants. The veteran third baseman posted a .307 average and .890 OPS against left-handed pitching last season, and a slow second half took some of the shine off a solid first half of the season (.204 ISO, .807 OPS in first half). Chapman has multiple opt outs in this deal, and he’ll be a regular in the San Francisco lineup, likely relegating J.D. Davis to platoon duty somewhere else. It’s not a great home park for power production, but there are some good parks in that division, and Chapman is certainly no stranger to hard contact (48.1 percent hard hit rate for his career).
1B
Jeimer Candelario
CHI
CIN
(Updated 12/7): Candelario opened the 2023 season in impressive fashion, slashing .258/.342/.481 with 16 home runs in 99 games for the Nationals. He was then traded at the deadline to the Chicago Cubs, and he took a bit of a step back there, hitting just.234 with six home runs over his final 41 games of the season. He posted a career high contact rate in 2023, and the Reds will be hoping that they can get the first half of 2023 version of Candelario. Candelario gets a bump in terms of park value, as he’ll be going to Great American Ball Park, which we know is one of the best hitters parks in the game. Candelario should see a good number of at-bats at first base following the departure of Joey Votto, and if the Reds want to get Jonathan India some looks at first base, too, Candelario can easily move into the DH spot. With no significant split disadvantages and a $15M contract, the Reds expect Candelario to be an everyday contributor to its lineup, likely hitting in or right around the heart of the order.
3B
Gio Urshela
LAA
DET
(Updated 2/22) A left pelvis fracture in the middle of June ended Urshela’s 2023 season early, and through 62 games, he was putting together a quality stat line. Despite hitting just two home runs with 22 runs scored, 24 RBI, and a .374 SLG across 214 at-bats, he was hitting a respectable .299. Urshela was mashing left-handed pitching, to the tune of a .373 average and .867 OPS, though his .259 xBA overall and 3.9 percent barrel rate (lowest since 2017) take some of the shine off those numbers. With a strong spring, Urshela could win a starting gig for the Tigers, likely at third base. The Tigers do have other options that hit left-handed pitching quite well, a la Andy Ibanez, but Urshela has been a reliable hitter and average defender over the past couple of years. He’ll provide subpar power numbers for a corner infielder, but he could help your team’s batting average a bit in AL-only setups.
DH
Justin Turner
BOS
TOR
(Updated 1/30) Turner will stay in the American League East after a productive 2023 season with the Red Sox. He slashed .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs, 86 runs scored, and 96 RBI across 146 games. His 96 RBI were a career high for him, and he continues to make a ton of contact at the dish. In fact, his 91 percent Z-Contact rate was the first time since 2018 he eclipsed the 90 percent threshold! Turner will bring a steady, veteran presence to the Blue Jays lineup, and while the majority of his time should be spent as the team’s designated hitter, he could play at either corner infield spot in a pinch. The Blue Jays still need a left-handed power bat in its lineup, but Turner should have plenty of RBI opportunities with the likes of George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting in front of him. Expect his ADP to rise in the coming days following this move.
3B
Mike Moustakas
LAA
CWS
(Updated 2/15) Across 112 games with the Rockies and Angels last season, Moustas hit 12 home runs with a .247/.293/.392 slash line, while driving in 48 runners. His six percent walk rate was his lowest mark since 2017, and his 5.7 percent barrel rate was tied for his lowest in the past nine seasons. A rough last two months of the season sunk his numbers a bit, but it’s not like they were overly impressive from the beginning. The veteran infielder posted a seventh percentile xBA and 11th percentile xSLG. He signed a minor league deal with the White Sox, but a strong spring could earn him a roster spot on the big league club as a backup corner infielder.
3B
Nick Senzel
CIN
WSH
(Updated 2/5): I really like this move for Washington. It’s a low risk, high-ish reward signing for the talented, yet often hurt Senzel. Despite a yearly trip or two to the injured list, he appeared in 100+ games in back-to-back seasons for Cincinnati, and last year, he hit 13 home runs with a .399 SLG across 301 at-bats. Senzel demolished left-handed pitching last year, to the tune of a .347 average, 1.008 OPS, and .271 ISO. While he’s a career .286 hitter against southpaws, he’s hit right-handed pitching at just a .219 clip. Senzel can play all over the field, so while his super-utility role increases his chances at playing more often, he figures to be the everyday third baseman to begin the year for Washington. He gets a park downgrade, but regardless of where he’s playing, he will crush left-handed pitching, and will likely be a popular DFS play throughout the season on those days.
3B
Eduardo Escobar
LAA
TOR
(Updated 2/17) After hitting 20+ home runs in 2021 and 2022, Escobar’s numbers dropped quite a bit in 2023, as he hit just .226 with six home runs across 288 ABs last season. His 5.8 percent walk rate was his lowest since 2016, and his 25.2 percent strikeout rate was the highest in his entire career! Opposing pitchers fed him more non-fastballs than ever before last season, and against sliders in particular last year, he posted a .159 BAA and 32.7 percent whiff rate. His quality of contact metrics plummeted, and he hit a ton of ground balls. He’ll need a strong spring to make the big league roster, and from there, he’ll likely need an injury or two to find consistent ABs in Toronto.
SS
Amed Rosario
LA
TB
(Updated 2/20) Rosario may not have put forth the power numbers like he had the couple of seasons prior, but overall, a .263/.305/.378 slash line with 70 runs scored and 15 stolen bases across 142 games isn’t too shabby. He was never a prolific source of power, but after hitting 11 home runs in both 2021 and 2022, his six home runs last year was a bit underwhelming. Rosario struggled against breaking pitches last season, to the tune of a .230 batting average and 30.5 percent whiff rate, but in years past, he’s been fine against those types of offerings. The Rays needed to add another capable middle infielder, and Rosario likely will play a good bit against lefties, as we all know that the Rays love to use platoons. He can handle his own against right-handed pitching, but should he earn regular ABs at shortstop, he should provide a bit of speed at a cheap price for fantasy managers in AL-only formats.
SS
Tim Anderson
CWS
MIA
(Updated 2/22) After four straight seasons hitting at least .300, Anderson’s average dropped to .245 last season, and even more notable, his .286 OBP was incredibly underwhelming. Anderson has always posted well below-average walk rates, so his OBP is largely fueled by what he does in the batting average department. His quality of contact dropped last year, as his barrel rate was the lowest of his career, and his average exit velocity was tied for the third-lowest of his career. His numbers remain better against left-handed pitching, but now seems like an appropriate time to bring up that he hit just one home run last season, and he has just seven round trippers over the last two seasons. His new home park is quite spacious, so banking on a rebound in the power department seems a bit risky in 2024. However, he can run a little bit, and has an everyday role with Miami, likely hitting in the upper-third of the lineup. Anderson may not be as enticing as he once was from a fantasy perspective, but he’s been practically free in drafts, and even if the power doesn’t fully rebound, he can still give you a .270+ batting average with around 15 stolen bases, which isn’t bad for outside the top 300 players (on average).
SS
Enrique Hernández
LA
LA
(Updated 2/27) He just can’t escape Los Angeles for too long! After 2.5 years in Boston, Hernandez returned to the Dodgers for the latter part of the 2023 season, and in 54 games with the Dodgers, he slashed .262/.308/.423 with five home runs and 30 RBI. Things just seem to fare better for him when he’s wearing Dodger blue, and even last year, upon returning to L.A., his swinging strike rate dropped, and his Z-Contact was above 90 percent! Hernandez has a career .801 OPS and .201 ISO against left-handed pitchers, and regardless of what position he plays, you can expect him to be in the lineup against southpaws more often than not. The Dodgers surely covet his versatility, as he appeared at seven different positions last season.
SS
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
NYY
TOR
(Updated 12/29) Kiner-Falefa can provide positional versatility for the Blue Jays, as he logged time at six different positions last year, including all three outfield spots. He’s a light-hitting player that thrives on making a lot of contact, compared to breaking Statcast’s batted ball metrics. He’s posted a 90+ percent zone-contact rate every season dating back to 2018, and last year’s eight percent swinging strike rate was the highest of his entire career. To his credit, he did make some of the hardest contact of his career last year, though his average exit velocity and hard hit rate are still below average, coming in at the 39th and 40th percentiles respectively. Kiner-Falefa can provide fantasy managers with a healthy number of stolen bases when playing in a full time role, which doesn’t seem likely in Toronto, at least to begin the 2024 campaign.
SS
Joey Wendle
MIA
NYM
Wendle should be a solid depth piece for the Mets, and if he needs to play regularly, he’s more than capable of being better than an average, middling replacement level player. While he only played shortstop last year in Miami, he has experience at second base, third base, and even both corner outfielder spots. His batting average plummeted last year, and while his .264 BABIP didn’t do him any favors, his batted ball metrics were on par with past seasons, and that .231 xBA looks far better than that .212 average. Keep in mind, too, that he did at least .259 in each of the three seasons prior to 2023, and prior to last season, he was a .271 hitter in his career! Wendle’s overall contact rate dipped last year, but he still posted healthy contact metrics on pitches in the zone, and his continued willingness to leave the zone will keep his walk rate suppressed. As a lefty, Wendle was actually better against southpaws last season, but for his career, that hasn’t been the same story. Wendle will need an injury to garner full time work, especially in the infield, as the team should ensure as many at-bats as possible for the likes of Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and the other youngsters. However, to protect the future, the team could protect those up-and-comers on the worse sides of their splits, allowing Wendle to get his name on the lineup card.
SS
Kevin Newman
CIN
ARI
(Updated 1/3) Newman posted a career year back in 2019, when he slashed .308/.353/.446 with 12 home runs and 16 stolen bases across 130 games. However, since then, he hasn’t been able to recapture that magic. He continues to make a lot of contact, and does a great job of getting the bat to the ball, but his quality of contact is marginal at best. He posted the best barrel rate and hard hit rate of his career last year, though those marks were just 2.5 percent and 29.3 percent respectively. He was far better against left-handed pitching last season, posting an .813 OPS and .186 ISO against southpaws, compared to a .571 OPS and .055 ISO against RHP. Newman can play virtually any position in the infield, so he’ll be considered a super utility guy for Arizona, and he would be a logical fill in when a lefty is on the mound for the opponent, and a regular in the lineup needs a breather. Fantasy wise, there’s not much here with the light-hitting Newman, though DFS players will likely be keen to use him against southpaws.
1B
Cody Bellinger
CHI
CHI
(Updated 2/25) Three years and $80M gets it done for Bellinger to head back to Chicago, and perhaps what’s best for him is that he can opt out again next year, or in 2025 if he so chooses. After six years with the Dodgers, Bellinger went to the Windy City in 2023, and in 130 games for the Cubs, slashed .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs, 95 runs scored, 97 RBI, and a career high 20 stolen bases. His 15.6 percent strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, so it won’t come as much of a surprise that his contact rate and zone contact rate were also career bests. His quality of contact numbers actually dropped a little bit, but he loved playing at Wrigley, highlighted by his .902 OPS and .246 ISO at home last season. Chicago needed another power bat in its lineup, and they get just that with Bellinger. The star slugger is primed for another 20/20 season in the heart of the Chicago lineup, though I don’t envision him hitting over .300 again. His xBA of .270 last year is a safe projection for 2024, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see him push closer to .280, especially if he continues to make as much contact as he did in 2023.
RF
Hunter Renfroe
CIN
KC
(Updated 12/15) Aside from the 2020 season, Renfroe had 25 or more home runs in every season between 2017-2022. In 2023, he managed to hit 19 home runs in 126 games with the Angeles, but after being traded to Cincy, it all went downhill from there. He hit just .128 in 14 games with the Reds, but overall, the pop wasn’t there for Renfroe. His .183 ISO last year was the first time he’s been below .230 in his entire career, and his Statcast metrics fell off a cliff, highlighted by a 6.1 percent barrel rate, far and away the lowest mark of his career. Believe it or not, he outperformed his expected metrics, and those expected numbers really showcase how bad his 2023 season was. Softer contact and more ground balls isn’t the ideal makeup for a player of Renfroe’s physical stature, but aside from home runs, Kauffman Stadium actually plays well for right-handed hitters. He could get moved at the deadline this year, but he should be a cheap source of power, as he should be hitting around the heart of the Kansas City order on a regular basis.
RF
Teoscar Hernández
SEA
LA
(Updated 1/8) Some may call 2023 a down year for Hernandez, because despite playing the most games (160) he’s ever played in a season, he hit just 26 home runs and posted a .305 OBP. Sure, his 24.0 AB/HR was his lowest mark since the 25.0 AB/HR number he posted in 41 games with Houston in 2016, but is it as simple as just chalking it up to the unfriendly hitter confines for righties at T-Mobile Park? Overall, the park grades poorly for right-handed hitters, but for home runs, it’s nearly average. However, he did only post a .217 average, .380 SLG, and .163 ISO at home last year, and those were numbers were nowhere near his marks on the road. Hernandez demolished left-handed pitching last year, to the tune of a .510 SLG and 120 wRC+ and he was about average against righties, hitting .249 with a 100 wRC+. From August 1 on, he slashed .294/.339/.491 with a 12.8 percent barrel rate, and 49.7 percent hard hit rate! Hernandez isn’t getting any younger, but he stayed healthy last season, and the Dodgers are hoping that he can do it again. He will be another power bat in this lineup and he gets a massive park upgrade in Dodger Stadium, which has been very lucrative to right-handed power hitters. There’s a lot of talent in this lineup, so his supporting cast should be excellent, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Hernandez’s ADP is going to jump a good bit here in the coming days following this news. In his new lineup and home park, he has a very good chance to hit 30+ home runs for the second time in his career, and perhaps even push 100 RBI. If all goes well, think 2021 Hernandez, with a few less stolen bases and a batting average closer to .255 than the .296 he posted that season.
RF
Jason Heyward
LA
LA
In his age 33 season, Heyward had a resurgence with the Dodgers, slashing .269/.340/.473 with 15 home runs, 56 runs scored, 40 RBI, and a .204 ISO across 124 games. His .204 ISO was his highest mark since his career year in 2012 with the Braves, while his .340 OBP was his highest since the shortened 2020 season. He did change his stance/swing a bit, which seemed to help, along with the Dodger magic they seem to have. Heyward stayed in the zone more than past years, and got the bat on the ball more frequently, en route to an 81.3 percent contact rate, his highest in the past five seasons. The Dodgers limited his at-bats against left-handers, and the same story figures to play out in 2023, that he’ll play on the larger side of a platoon. Heyward was a non-factor in the postseason, but after a slower start to the season, he was solid after the All-Star Break, posting a .287 average with 17 extra-base hits across 157 at-bats. Fantasy wise, he’ll have a good supporting cast around him yet again in 2023, but his expected statistics indicate a bit of regression in 2024. Additionally, he will be operating in a platoon, so he won’t be an everyday player.
CF
Jung Hoo Lee
FA
SF
(Updated 12/13) The Giants finally land a big name free agent! The team inked Jung Hoo Lee to a multi-year deal, and the former KBO MVP can best be described as a wizard with the bat in his hands. In terms of his strikeout rate, his worst season came as a 19-year-old in 2018 when he struck out 11.2 percent of the time. However, he’s posted a higher walk rate than strikeout rate in each of the last four seasons in the KBO, and he’s never recorded a season with lower than a .318 batting average. The power waned in 2023, and outside of his 23 home runs in 2022, and 15 home runs in 2020, power has never been a big part of his game. We have seen some players that come from the KBO struggle early on, and it can sometimes take a bit to transition to life in the United States and Major League Baseball. He’ll need some time to get used to higher velocity on a more consistent basis, but you can’t teach his bat-to-ball skills and feel for the batter’s box and strike zone. Even if he doesn’t replicate his .300+ average from the KBO in his first year with the Giants, which is something we shouldn’t expect by the way, he’ll provide above-average defense and a contact-first offensive profile with more emphasis on contact quantity than quality.
CF
Garrett Hampson
COL
MIA
In 2021, Garrett Hampson showed signs of life, slashing .234/.289/.380 with 11 home runs and 17 stolen bases across 147 games. An elevated strikeout rate from the upper minors has carried with him throughout his big league career, and a lack of hard contact may have been overshadowed a bit by the friendly and forgiving confines of Coors Field. His batted ball metrics won’t wow anyone, especially last year’s 2.5 percent barrel rate, and the fact that he’s posted an average exit velocity below 87 miles per hour in every year of his career, except that 2021 season. At first glance, Hampson’s .276 average from last year looks pretty good, however, his expected statistics tell a different story, and it looks like that inflated .379 BABIP is the reason he hit .276, compared to being closer to his .242 xBA. His .380 SLG exceeds his .330 xSLG, and his .323 wOBA outperformed his .295 xwOBA. This is a better move in reality than in fantasy, as he will provide versatility to the Royals, and ultimately satisfy two bench spots himself. Despite the lack of quality contact, he has enjoyed an elevated walk rate the past two seasons, and he played six different positions last year. He’ll likely open the year as a super utility man for Kansas City, but he’s just one injury away from potentially being thrusted into a full time role, where he could provide some fantasy value.
CF
Harrison Bader
CIN
NYM
(Updated 1/4) Through 84 games with the Yankees last year, Bader slashed .240/.278/.365 with seven home runs and 17 stolen bases, but before becoming fantasy irrelevant upon heading to Cincinnati. Prior to his groin injury in late May, he slashed .267/.295/.511. After the injury, he slashed .218/.266/.284. His batted ball metrics rebounded after a disastrous 2022 season in those regards, though for the most part, the majority of the metrics (barrel rate, hard hit rate, and average exit velocity) are still subpar. Citi Field presents a slight downgrade in terms of home park for the right-handed Bader, but in terms of the park factor for home runs, it’s a steep downgrade to Citi Field (95) from Yankee Stadium (113). His ground ball rate has dropped each of the last two seasons, which could present the opportunity for increased power, but the quality of contact doesn’t indicate that occurring. He’s hit lefties well for his career, and he’s a quality defender, and a strong spring could cement him as the team’s starting center fielder. The Mets have other outfield options, but Bader holding down centerfield would allow the team to move Nimmo to left, and maybe keep him healthy. For fantasy purposes, Bader is an intriguing flier in the later rounds, as he can provide some cheap speed for fantasy managers, and maybe, just maybe, he can find that 2021 version of himself in the power department. With regular playing time in 2024, he could be a member of the 10/20 club, with more upside in the stolen base department.
CF
Kevin Kiermaier
TOR
TOR
(Updated 12/27) Kiermaier is an excellent defender, and last year, he ranked in the 98th and 95th percentile in range (OAA) and arm strength respectively. He still boasts great speed, and he managed to go 14-for-15 on stolen base attempts last season. After staying healthy last year and playing in more than 120 games for just the fourth time in his career, he earned a little raise for the 2024 season, and should operate as the everyday center fielder for Toronto. His hard contact and barrel rate took a bit of a tumble, which isn’t ideal, though he offset that by improving on his contact rates and propensity to stay in the strike zone. For fantasy purposes, he’s a bottom of the order bat who can steal some bases, but he’s not getting any younger, meaning that his 2024 season could look like 2023, though I’d expect a reduction in his batting average and slugging percentage.
CF
Aaron Hicks
BAL
LAA
(Updated 1/30) After an uneventful start to the year with the Yankees, Hicks came on strong for Baltimore! In 65 games with the Orioles, he slashed .275/.381/.425 with seven home runs and six stolen bases! He was actually useful in fantasy during that time, something he hadn’t really been the three seasons prior with the Yankees. The Angels will likely open the year deploying Hicks primarily against left-handed pitching, but depending on how Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell perform, the pathway to regular ABs for Hicks isn’t completely out of the question. Hicks shouldn’t be drafted in fantasy baseball, but maybe as the season plays out he could be a useful addition. However, I don’t expect him to catch lightning in a bottle again like he did with Baltimore in 2023.
CF
Adam Duvall
BOS
ATL
(Updated 3/14) In 92 games with the Red Sox last year, Duvall swatted 21 home runs, and his .284 ISO and .531 SLG were quite impressive to say the least. A distal radius fracture cost him some time, but when he was on the field, he was driving the ball for power. Duvall posted an 85th percentile barrel rate last season, but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that some of his quality of contact metrics are slipping just a bit. In Atlanta, he'll likely be deployed in a platoon, and find his name on the lineup card when facing a left-handed pitcher, perhaps taking over for Jarred Kelenic on those days. Duvall will be better suited for use in DFS, though those in deeper formats where daily moves are permitted could pick and choose their spots with the veteran slugger.
LF
Joc Pederson
SF
ARI
(Updated 1/25) While his .235 average, 15 home runs, and .182 ISO may not look overly impressive over the course of his 121 games played last season, Pederson was very, very solid at the dish in 2023. His walk rate of 13.4 percent was his second-highest mark in a season where he played at least 100 games, and his 20.9 percent strikeout rate was the first time since 2018 he was below 21 percent! He continued to make a lot of hard contact, and in fact, his 52.2 percent hard hit rate last year was the best of his career. His xBA of .263 last year is positive, and his .483 xSLG and .368 wOBA are incredibly enticing as he gets a sizable park upgrade heading to Arizona. Pederson will sit against lefties, but on the larger side of a platoon, Pederson slots right in the middle of the Arizona order, and there’s plenty of offensive firepower around him. In leagues where you can make daily lineup adjustments, you can maximize Pederson’s production for your team, and he should easily give you 20+ home runs this season in the middle of a potent Arizona lineup.
LF
Lourdes Gurriel
ARI
ARI
(Updated 12/18) Is Gurriel an odd year guy? For his career, his best seasons have come in 2019, 2021, and 2023. His even years have not been so great #analysis. Despite the average dropping down to .261, which was actually the worst mark in a season in his entire career, but he hit 24 home runs and posted a .463 SLG across a career-high 145 games. His .201 ISO was the first time he broke through the .200 threshold since 2020, and his batted ball metrics are very sustainable heading into 2024. Ultimately, there’s not much in his profile that screams outlier or regression for 2024, and in fact, his average could see a slight uptick if he can hit righties better than he did last year. While he hit .301 against lefties last year, which was great, his .247 average against righties is a far cry from his .275 average for his career. There’s a bit of a logjam in the Arizona outfield, but he’s got an everyday role in the lineup, which likely consists of serving as the DH against righties, and playing right field against southpaws. If you’re superstitious, you may buy into the odd/even year narrative for Gurriel, but ultimately, his batted ball profile is sustainable, and his expected statistics fall right in light with his actual numbers from last year.
LF
Randal Grichuk
LAA
ARI
(Updated 2/17) After a solid showing in Colorado in the early parts of 2023, Grichuk’s numbers fell off once he got to the Angels. However, 2023 still marked the third straight season that he hit at least 16 home runs in a season, and his 45.3 percent hard hit rate last year was his highest mark since 2016! Grichuk likely plays on the smaller side of a platoon in the Arizona outfield, as the team could use someone who can pack a punch against left-handed pitching. Operating on the small side of a platoon doesn’t help his fantasy value much, but DFS players will likely be very aware of Grichuk in a talented Arizona lineup when facing a lefty starter. He could be a fine pickup if he finds his way into a full time role, but at least to begin the season, that type of consistent playing time doesn’t seem likely.
LF
Kevin Pillar
ATL
CWS
(Updated 2/3) Pillar appeared in 81 games for the Braves last season, slashing .228/.248/.416 with nine home runs, 29 runs scored, and four stolen bases. He really struggled against right-handed pitching last season, posting a .202 average and .580 OPS, but he was serviceable against lefties, notching a .250 average and .733 OPS. He’s a quality defender who likely appears on the small side of a platoon in the Chicago outfield. The jump in his hard hit rate to 38.7 percent last season was exceptional, and that would bode well if he gets the majority of his at-bats on the best side of his splits. His walk rate came back to Earth, and if your league values OBP, he gets knocked down a few notches. At this stage of his career, Pillar isn’t an outfielder you need to prioritize in drafts, let alone as a player on your roster in any capacity.
LF
Jurickson Profar
SD
SD
(Updated 2/13) Profar went to Colorado and couldn’t quite find his footing, and ultimately ended up being released in late August. He returned to San Diego, and slashed .295/.367/.409 across 49 plate appearances. The switch-hitting outfielder likely has an everyday role in San Diego, simply because after Fernando Tatis Jr., this outfield is littered with question marks. At times, Profar has shown to be quite the fantasy commodity, in that he can do a little bit of everything, and we’ve seen a few seasons where he put up respectable power numbers. Profar has a great feel for the strike zone, giving him a nice bump in leagues that value OBP, but an otherwise underwhelming batted ball profile keeps his fantasy value suppressed. In NL-only formats, he’s a fine target, as ABs will be there for him, but it would have to be a rather deep mixed league to take a shot on Profar.
LF
David Peralta
LA
CHI
(Updated 2/19) Peralta appeared in 133 games for the Dodgers last season, and he slashed .259/.294/.381 with seven home runs, 47 runs scored, and four stolen bases. His .274 xBA was his highest in a season since 2018, though his 4.9 percent barrel rate was down a little bit. Peralta’s 4.7 percent walk rate was his lowest since 2016, and his quality of contact is starting to wane a bit as he progresses deeper into his mid-thirties. The veteran outfielder underwent surgery on his elbow back in October, but he’ll get a chance to compete in spring training to come off the bench for Chicago. For fantasy purposes, he’s not someone we need to monitor throughout the spring.
LF
Eddie Rosario
ATL
WSH
(Updated 3/6) Rosario hit 21 home runs and drove in 74 runners in 142 games for the Braves last season, and he has many years under his belt as a productive bat in the MLB, though he's been better against RHP over the last couple of seasons. There were some questions about depth in the Washington outfield, and the signing of Rosario provides a veteran presence if he breaks camp with the big league team. He could find regular ABs in the Washington outfield, especially if the team isn't ready to trust Jesse Winker or Stone Garrett in a regular role.
OF
Joey Gallo
MIN
WSH
(Updated 1/23) What is there to say about Gallo that isn’t already widely known? He posted 21 home runs, a .262 ISO, and a .440 SLG in 111 games last year, all while striking out 42.8 percent of the time and hitting below the Mendoza line for the fourth straight season. He gets a slight park upgrade overall heading to Nationals Park, and he can play first base or outfield for the Nats in 2024. Fantasy managers will appreciate the versatility Gallo provides when setting their lineup(s) for the day or week, but as good as the power can be, he’s a massive drain on your team’s batting average. However, he’s far more palatable in leagues that value OBP, because despite hitting for such a poor average, he’s posted a double-digit walk rate in every year of his nine year career, so despite being a .197 career hitter, he has a career .323 OBP. Gallo is a low-risk-moderate-reward at his price point, considering he’s practically free in drafts.
DH
J.D. Martinez
LA
NYM
(Updated 3/21) Martinez is aging like fine wine, and in his age 35 season last year with the Dodgers, Martinez hit 33 home runs and posted a .572 SLG in just 113 games. His 33 home runs were the most he posted in a season since 2019, and his .301 ISO last year was his highest since 2017. He enjoyed the hitter friendly confines of Dodger Stadium, but to his credit, he did post an excellent 17 percent barrel rate and 54.8 percent hard hit rate (career best). He figures to slot in right behind Pete Alonso in the heart of the New York order, and while he suffers a park downgrade in heading to Citi Field, he has plenty of power, so he should once again be a reliable source of power for fantasy managers. Be sure to check your league settings to see if he has OF eligibility or if he is UT only, and understand what that does for lineup construction.
DH
Jorge Soler
MIA
SF
(Updated 2/13) In what was arguably the second-best campaign of Soler’s career, Soler was excellent for fantasy managers and the Marlins alike. Across 137 games, Soler hit 36 home runs and drove in 75 runners while slashing .250/.341/.512. He posted a 15 percent barrel rate and 48 percent hard hit rate, both of which were in the 84th percentile or better last season. Soler will always likely run a bit streaky, but he has elite power, and last year’s 27.6 percent whiff rate was his lowest since the metric was tracked. Despite going from one bad park to another for right-handed hitters, there’s enough in this San Fran lineup to help pad some of his numbers, and no stadium in the MLB can contain Soler’s gargantuan power. He’ll play everyday for the Giants, whether it be in the outfield or at DH, and as long as he can stay healthy, he should be a near lock for 30 home runs in 2024.
DH
Andrew McCutchen
PIT
PIT
(Updated 12/19) After partially tearing his achilles last season, McCutchen signed a one-year deal to return to Pittsburgh for another season. When he was in the lineup, he was a positive force in the Pirates’ lineup. In 112 games, he hit 12 home runs, stole 11 bases, and his 15.9 percent walk rate pushes his OBP to a healthy .378! His expected statistics were right in line with his actual statistics, and his 21.3 percent O-Swing% was his lowest mark since the 2019 season! He was solid once again against lefties, and when he’s healthy, he’ll hit in the heart of the Pittsburgh order, which should be an interesting unit, especially with continued development from Ke’Bryan Hayes and Henry Davis, as well as a full season (fingers crossed) from Oneil Cruz. Depending on your league settings, he may only have UT eligibility, so take note of that!
DH
Daniel Vogelbach
NYM
TOR
(Updated 2/17) Vogelbach appeared in 104 games for the Mets last season, and across 319 plate appearances, he swatted 13 home runs while posting a .404 SLG. He punished fastballs last season, but non-fastballs gave him some fits, paying a large part in his 25.4 percent strikeout rate from last season. The veteran 1B/DH has always posted impressive quality of contact numbers, and a strong feel of the strike zone, but strikeouts still creep into his offensive profile, and he cannot be deployed against left-handed pitching. He has a chance to make the big league roster as a power bat from the left side off the bench.
RP
Josh Hader
SD
HOU
(Updated 1/19) The Astros make a big splash by signing Hader to a massive five-year deal worth $95 million! This contract comes on the heels of a 2023 campaign where Hader closed out 33 games for the Padres, posting a 1.28 ERA and 36.8 percent strikeout rate! After a disastrous 2022 season, he generated more swings out of the zone, allowed fewer home runs, and did a far better job of avoiding barrels. He doesn’t generate a ton of ground balls, but his slider enjoyed a massive jump in that department (career high 50% GB% in 2022), while maintaining a 50+ percent whiff rate. He’s a fastball-slider guy, and his slider is lethal to say the least. In a perfect world, his walk rate comes in closer to 10 percent than 15 percent in 2024, but even if he allows a few more walks than you’d like, he’s as dominant as they come. From a fantasy perspective, Hader will be closing games for a very good Houston team, and he’ll have excellent options before him, a la Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, and Rafael Montero, to preserve leads prior to Hader coming in and shutting the door. Hader deserves to be one of the first couple of closers off the board, and shouldn’t fall past the fourth or fifth closer if you ask me.
RP
Liam Hendriks
CWS
BOS
(Updated 2/19) Hendriks was placed on the IL in late March of 2023 due to being diagnosed with stage 4 non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, but in a miraculous turn of events, he was able to return to the mound in 2023 for a handful of innings. From 2019-2022, Hendriks was dominant, and he closed a total of 75 games for the White Sox over the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He boasts excellent velocity, and back in 2022, his slider registered a .100 BAA and 669 percent whiff rate! It’s tough to glean much from his 2023 season, given everything that occurred earlier in the season, but this is a solid move for the Red Sox. There have been some rumors about wanting to trade Kenley Jansen, and adding Hendriks to the pen gives Boston another legitimate ninth inning option, should they choose to move on from Jansen. Hopefully we see Hendriks in the latter stages of the 2024 season, though it's far from a guarantee as he's on his way back from Tommy John surgery.
RP
Craig Kimbrel
PHI
BAL
(Updated 12/6): Kimbrel’s contract likely affords him a lengthy leash as the team’s closer to begin the year. Felix Bautista will be recovering from Tommy John surgery, and Yennier Cano is an elite setup option who will likely see some save opportunities of his own. However, Kimbrel should get the lion’s share of the ninth inning work to begin the year, and as he continues to age, he continues to be effective more often than not. After a down year in the strikeout department in 2022, he returned to a respectable 33.8 percent strikeout rate last season, and he converted 23-of-28 save opportunities for the Phillies. His fly ball rate continues to rise as he gets a bit older, so while he is a bit more prone to the long ball than he was earlier in his career, he’s in a pitcher-friendly park closing out games for a team that should win a lot of games in 2024, especially if Baltimore acquires a frontline starter to add to its rotation. Kimbrel still boasts solid velocity, and he has a curveball that’s been very good to him throughout his career, despite last year’s career low 38.2 percent whiff rate, which is still good by all measures! Baltimore needed another reliable, proven option out of the pen, because you need more than two dominant relievers over the course of a 162-game regular season and then playoffs. Of course, Kimbrel is prone to his fair share of implosions, but he’s likely to be the primary ninth-inning man, or at the very least in a split, for a very good Baltimore team this season.
RP
Nick Martinez
SD
CIN
The Reds continue to add pieces to its bullpen, which makes sense, seeing as you can never have enough arms in the pen. Cincinnati was league average last year in terms of bullpen ERA, coming in at 4.11, but their 4.48 FIP ranked 23rd, and 4.87 xFIP ranked 29th. The bullpen also had the fourth-lowest K/9 in the majors, and Martinez isn’t a very big strikeout arm himself. He’s posted a 22.1 percent strikeout rate over the last two years, but he’s also been very reliable, posting a 3.45 ERA and 79.1 percent strand rate over the last two years with San Diego. His fly ball rate has dropped each of the last two years, featured by last year’s career low 28.2 percent, which should behoove him in Great American Ball Park if he can repeat that mark. His arsenal runs five pitches deep, and he dropped the usage of his fastball to let his other pitches shine, which is a better move for him. Martinez’s changeup posted a 46.5 percent whiff rate last year, and that’s the best pitch in his toolbox. While primarily a reliever for the Padres, he did make 19 starts over the last two seasons for the Padres, and the Reds could give him a look as a starter in spring training. Even if he doesn’t break camp as a member of the rotation, he will ultimately serve as the team’s de facto spot starter, as well as middle/long reliever. He gets a park downgrade, as GABP plays as one of the best hitter fields in the game, but his numbers over the past two years are very repeatable, perhaps with an ERA closer to 4.00.
RP
Héctor Neris
HOU
CHI
(Updated 1/27) Since recording 28 saves back in 2019, Neris has just 22 saves over the last four seasons, but he was dominant for those who needed him last year in leagues that value holds. Across 68.1 IP, he posted a career best 1.71 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 28.2 percent strikeout rate, while recording two saves and 31 holds. Neris’ splitter is elite, and last season, it posted a .171 BAA and 42.2 percent whiff rate, not to mention a .213 wOBA. Neris does have closing experience, but the Cubs will likely use Neris as the setup man to Adbert Alzolay. Even if Neris experiences some regression in 2024, he’s a great reliever to target in SV+H leagues, as he’s posted a 2.69 ERA, 10.50 K/9, and MLB best 56 holds over the last two seasons. Furthermore, with the current state of affairs in the Chicago bullpen, if something were to happen to Alzolay, Neris should step in as the team’s closer, further boosting his fantasy value in the aforementioned setups.
RP
Will Smith
TEX
KC
(Updated 12/10) Smith’s 4.40 ERA may have been higher than what many fantasy managers would have wanted, but his peripherals indicate it should have been lower, and he still managed to save 22-of-27 opportunities in 2023. His groundball rate of 29.6 percent was a career low, and that likely won’t change much in 2023, as his two primary pitches won’t lend themselves to many grounders. He puts his fastball up in the zone, and lets his slider flourish as his out pitch. That slider generates a ton of whiffs, and last year, opponents hit just .120 against it. Smith should step right in and contend with James McArthur for save opportunities in the Kansas City pen, and with a strong spring, he could win the job right out of camp.
RP
Aroldis Chapman
TEX
PIT
(Updated 1/23) Chapman will be traded at the trade deadline, you can almost guarantee it. Pittsburgh inked him to a one-year deal, and they will flip him come July to acquire some young talent. The veteran southpaw was great last year, as he posted a 3.09 ERA and 41.4 percent strikeout rate as a member of the Royals and Rangers. During the Rangers’ World Series run, Chapman posted a 2.25 ERA across eight innings in the postseason. Chapman is a fastball-slider guy, though he’s mixing in a sinker and splitter every now and again to keep the opposition honest. He’s not a guy who generates a ton of swings out of the zone, but he racks up whiffs in bunches, including posting a 17.5 percent swinging strike rate last year, which was his second-highest mark over his last seven seasons! David Bednar is still in town and figures to get the first crack as the primary ninth inning man, but Chapman should prove to be quite valuable in SV+H leagues, as this Pirates team might surprise some people in 2024, so long as the starting staff outperforms relatively low expectations.
RP
Jorge López
BAL
NYM
(Updated 12/8): For just $2M, this is a solid move by the Mets to add another experienced arm to its bullpen. The move to being a full-time reliever was great for Lopez’s career, as he went from a fantasy afterthought to a priority in 2022 with Baltimore, when he posted a 1.68 ERA and 19 saves across 48.1 IP with the team. Baltimore moved him to Minnesota, capitalizing on his hot start, and things just haven’t been the same since then. He played for three different teams in 2023, and for the season as a whole, he posted a 5.95 ERA, 1.83 HR/9 and 18.4 percent strikeout rate across 61 total appearances. Lopez allowed a lot of hard contact last season, coming in at the seventh percentile last season. In 2024, the Mets would be wise to have Lopez back off his four-seamer a bit, and really focus on his sinker, curveball, and changeup. His changeup was excellent in 2022, posting a 36.4 percent whiff rate and .205 BAA, but he dropped the usage on it in 2023, opting to really raise the usage of his four-seamer, to the tune of a .375 BAA and .688 SLG. A healthy Edwin Diaz has the ninth inning role secured, so Lopez should slot into a middle relief role, with the chance to get into the “setup man” territory, especially if he can recapture that magic he found in Baltimore in 2022.
RP
Reynaldo López
CLE
ATL
The move to the pen allowed Lopez to dial in his best pitch, and allow him to succeed as a two-pitch arm. His fastball-slider combo has wreaked havoc on opponents, and while he had a rough start to the 2023 campaign, he posted a 1.29 ERA and 32.2 percent strikeout rate over his last 28 innings of work. He converted just half of his save opportunities last season (6-for-12), but the report is that Atlanta is going to give Lopez an opportunity to start. They will stretch him out in Spring training, and his role will be determined at the end of spring. He’s been solid as a reliever of late, so my belief is that his biggest fantasy contributions would come as a reliever, but if Atlanta can push the right buttons, maybe he’s an intriguing late round starter. However, while the versatility is nice for Atlanta, it could be a bit of a headache for fantasy, especially if they bounce him around between being a spot starter and middle reliever.
RP
Adam Ottavino
NYM
NYM
(Updated 1/27) The Mets get Ottavino back for the 2024 season, and he’ll be a highly valuable piece of the team’s pen. Despite a 1-7 record last season, he posted a 3.21 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 12 saves. It was his first season since 2014 where he posted a K/9 under 10, and his 11.1 percent walk rate is a bit higher than we’d like to see from him. The veteran right-hander allowed a lot of hard contact last season, and it was just the second time in the last six seasons where his swinging strike rate was under 10 percent. Opponents made more contact against him last year than year’s past, and his velocity was down a little bit. He should rack up a good number of holds for a Mets squad in 2024, though his path to saves is completely blocked by the return of Edwin Diaz. Outside of leagues that value holds, Ottavino’s fantasy value is nearly nonexistent, as his age might be starting to catch up to him.
RP
David Robertson
MIA
TEX
(Updated 1/25) Robertson’s 2023 season was arguably two different seasons bundled into one. In 44 IP with the Mets, he posted a 2.05 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 7.6 percent walk rate. Then, he gets traded to Miami, and proceeds to throw up a 5.06 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and 12.4 percent walk rate over 21.1 IP. As a member of the Marlins, he converted just four of seven save opportunities. Robertson’s stuff is still good, and when you see his .385 BABIP and 3.49 FIP as a member of the Marlins, it’s easy to buy into the notion that Robertson is still quite good at his job going into his age 39 season. He’s going to take some save chances from Jose LeClerc, and with another proven closing option in the Texas pen, Leclerc’s leash has been shortened considerably. Robertson is still a quality reliever to target in SV+H leagues, because he should give you enough strikeouts, while boosting your ratios and racking up saves and holds for a solid Texas squad.
RP
Adam Cimber
TOR
LAA
(Updated 12/7): After the 2023 season which saw the Angels post a 4.88 ERA from its bullpen, it’s clear they were going to add some reinforcements in the offseason. Cimber was rock solid in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, logging a sub-3.00 ERA with over 70 appearances in each of those two seasons. It was a different story in 2023, however, as a rhomboid strain and shoulder impingement limited him to just 20.2 IP across 22 appearances. He wasn’t the same guy that we had seen in years past, and we can likely chalk it up to injuries. The veteran sidewinder should get back to his previous ways this year with the Angels, serving as a reliable option in the seventh and/or eighth inning, paving way for Carlos Estevez in the ninth.
RP
Ryne Stanek
HOU
SEA
(Updated 3/8) Stanek’s 2023 season didn’t quite match his 2022 numbers, but to be fair, expecting him to post a 1.15 ERA again was going to be a tall task. However, aside from his 4.09 ERA and 1.42 HR/9, his strikeout rate tumbled to 23.9 percent, his lowest since 2020. Compared to 2022, he generated fewer swings out of the zone, allowed more contact overall, but still had a healthy 14.7 percent SwStr%. His splitter and slider both posted whiff rates of at least 40 percent last season, but his fastball took a step back in that department, and specifically when there was two strikes, the whiff rate on his fastball dropped over 12 percentage points compared to 2022. With his new club, Stanek will pitch in high-leverage situations for Seattle, and figures to be the top setup man ahead of Andres Munoz. Should anything happen to Munoz at any point this season, Seattle would likely turn to Stanek in the ninth inning.
RP
Emilio Pagán
MIN
CIN
Pagan has proven closing experience, as he has 32 saves across his seven big league seasons. Last year, his 0.65 HR/9 mark was the lowest of his career, aided by a minuscule 5.3 percent HR/FB ratio. However, he still surrendered fly balls more than half of the time, and while his ground ball rate was above his career mark, it was a far cry from his career high in 2022. He allowed a lot of hard contact, and unfortunately, hard contact and fly balls in Great American Ball Park doesn't exactly seem like a recipe for success. He outperformed the majority of his expected and peripheral statistics, indicating some regression could be in store in 2023. Actually, maybe it's not regression, but more so returning to the form we've seen in the three years prior. Pagan should immediately step in as the primary setup man in the Reds' pen, and would be the next man up should something happen to Alexis Diaz.
RP
Joe Kelly
LA
LA
Updated 12/4: It seems like Kelly in a Dodgers uniform, and the non-Los Angeles Kelly are two different people. His best seasons have come as a member of the Dodgers, and there are very few notable seasons from Kelly otherwise, except 2013 and maybe 2017 with the Cardinals and Red Sox respectively. In 29 innings with the White Sox last year, Kelly was striking batters out at a solid clip, but a 58.7 percent LOB% and 4.97 ERA were ugly. However, some of his peripherals were far better than that, and it’s hard to overcome a .382 BABIP. Kelly then heads to Los Angeles, where he posts a 47.5 percent strikeout rate, .088 BAA, and 1.32 FIP across 11 appearances. He didn’t get much playoff run, but was effective when called upon. Kelly isn’t getting any younger, but the velocity is still there for him, and in recent years, he’s really upped the usage on his slider, which was lethal last season. He’ll slot in the middle of the Los Angeles bullpen, but he’ll be more than just one injury away from save chances for the Dodgers.
RP
Chris Devenski
TB
TB
(Updated Dec. 6) After a couple of rough seasons post-Houston, Devenski really settled in with the Rays after joining the club in September. Down the stretch, he made nine appearances with the team, posting a 2.08 ERA, 27.3 percent strikeout rate, and .161 BAA. When he joined the Rays, his pitch mix switched ever so slightly, in that he dropped the usage of his four-seamer, and used his sweeper a bit more. In the final month of the year, his changeup continued to headline his arsenal, but his sweeper posted a 33.3 percent whiff rate, despite being hit around a little bit. In fact, all four of his pitches had a 30+ percent whiff rate in September! While Devenski may not have much fantasy value in his role, the Rays may be onto something with Devenski and his pitch mix.
RP
Michael Tonkin
ATL
NYM
(Updated Dec. 6) The veteran reliever was tough on right-handed hitters last year, just like he has been for the majority of his career. Lefties have given him some problems though, but he figures to be a steady presence in the Mets’ bullpen. After a six-year hiatus from pitching in the majors, he logged 80 IP for the Braves in 2023, which was a career high, and posted a 4.28 ERA (3.85 xERA). He’s a flyball reliever, so home runs will get the best of him every now and again, but he’ll be going to a friendlier home park for pitchers, so maybe that will mitigate some of the concerns from his flyball-centric profile. No real fantasy value here, but good depth for New York.
RP
Luis García
SD
LAA
(Updated Dec. 6) The journeyman reliever will play for his sixth big league team, and his fifth in the last seven years. For his career, he has a 4.05 ERA, but since going to San Diego, his ground ball rate jumped. The last two years has seen Garcia post ground ball rates of 54.4 percent and 60.9 percent, and prior to the last two years, the veteran right-hander posted a sub-50 percent ground ball rate in every season since 2017. Despite dropping the usage on his sinker a bit, it’s still his primary pitch, but his four-seamer was exceptional last year at inducing ground balls (-3 degree launch angle). The Angels would be wise to continue using Garcia as a sinker-slider reliever, with a four-seamer and splitter mixed in every now and again. He’ll be a middle reliever for the Angels in 2023, with no clear path to ninth inning work, which isn’t something he’s really done much of in his career (11 SV).
RP
Kirby Yates
ATL
TEX
(Updated 12/7): Injuries limited Yates to a combined 11.1 IP between 2020-2022, but he was healthy coming into the 2023 season, and he was great for the Braves. Over 61 appearances, he logged a 7-2 record, five saves, 3.28 ERA, and 31.5 percent strikeout rate. He had some command issues, but maybe we don’t overreact to his 14.6 percent walk rate for a couple reasons. The first of which is that he pitched just 11.1 IP across the seasons prior, and from 2014-2019, he had a 7.8 percent walk rate. His walk rate ballooned due to an erratic final two months of the season, where he walked 15 batters across 20.1 IP. Yates’ splitter is a problem for hitters, and last year, it resulted in a .160 BAA and 34.3 percent whiff rate. Yates loves his four-seamer, which has been very effective in its own right, although it does get put in the air a lot. Yates will be on a good team once again in 2024, and his experience in high-leverage situations could give him an opportunity to win the closing job, or at least a piece of it, with a strong, and healthy, spring.
RP
Andrew Chafin
MIL
DET
(Updated 12/10) After a rough 2023 season, Chafin will return to Detroit, in the hopes of regaining his 2021-2022 form. In his lone year with the Tigers in 2022, he posted a 2.83 ERA across 64 appearances, while posting a 27.6 percent strikeout rate. While he wasn’t the lefty specialist that he was for most of his career last season, he has a longer track record of being good against lefties than not. For his entire career, left-handed hitters have a .226 average and .277 wOBA against Chafin, and the Tigers are banking on him to return to his 2021-2022 form, and providing some quality innings out of the bullpen.
RP
Chris Stratton
TEX
KC
(Updated 12/12): While his fantasy relevance in 2023 wasn’t as important as his contributions in reality for Texas down the stretch, it resulted in him getting a nice little chunk of change from the Royals. His 18.8 percent strikeout rate during his time in Texas left a lot to be desired, but he posted a respectable 1.10 WHIP and 3.41 ERA. Sure, he struggled a bit in the postseason, but he provided Texas with respectable innings down the stretch. He’s primarily worked as a reliever in recent seasons, and that appears to be his role this year for the Royals, though if needed, he could likely make a spot start and give more than a couple innings. Stratton generated a lower swing rate out of the zone, a sub-10 percent whiff rate, and his 80.5 percent contact rate allowed was his highest since converting to a reliever. This is a fine move in reality for the Royals, but it doesn’t mean much for fantasy.
RP
Dylan Floro
MIN
WSH
(Updated 12/12): Floro opened the 2023 season with a 1.62 ERA and 52.3 percent groundball rate through his first 16.2 IP of the season. However, over the next 23 IP, while his 10.17 K/9 was pretty solid, his 6.65 ERA left a lot to be desired. To be fair, he did post a 2.60 FIP, 2.76 xFIP, and .479 BABIP during that span. He was ultimately then traded to Minnesota, where once again, his peripherals (3.43 FIP, 3.83 xFIP) were far better than his raw numbers (5.29 ERA). As the year went on, he dropped the usage on his slider, opting to primarily be a four-seamer/sinker guy, and he primarily a one-pitch pitcher against right-handed hitters. He needs to fine tune his pitch mix, but his slider has shown glimpses of being a solid out pitch for him, so I’d like to see him focus on developing that in spring training. He’ll serve as a middle reliever for Washington, and even if something were to happen to Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey would be the logical next choice for saves, so Floro would need a couple of injuries to get saves in Washington.
RP
Jack Flaherty
BAL
DET
(Updated 12/14) Flaherty has had a couple of years to forget. An injury derailed what was going to be a very, very good 2021 season, and since then, he’s really struggled. Last year, he posted a 4.99 ERA across 144.1 IP, and after being traded to the Orioles, it went downhill. He made nine appearances for the Orioles in the second half of the season, but in seven appearances as a starter for the Orioles, he posted a 7.11 ERA, 1.99 HR/9, and 1.67 WHIP. Some of his peripheral numbers look better, but it’s a consolation prize at best. Maybe a fresh start in Detroit is exactly what he needs, and if last year was any indicator, he should cut back the usage on his cutter a bit, as that pitch was absolutely pummeled last season. His slider has long been good for him, but last year wasn’t the case, so that pitch may need a bit of refinement. Flaherty is practically free in drafts, and in the later rounds, you can take a chance on him as a low-risk option, hoping that he can stay healthy in 2024 and push for 150+ IP, something he hasn’t done since 2019.
RP
Martín Pérez
TEX
PIT
Perez was more effective as a reliever for the Rangers last season, well, other than during the postseason. His 2023 season wasn’t as productive as his excellent 20222 campaign, and fantasy managers certainly noticed that. Yes, he still went 10-4 across 35 appearances (20 starts), but a 4.45 ERA paired with a 15.3 percent strikeout rate and 1.40 WHIP just isn’t going to get it done. Perez had a hot start to the year, posting a 2.41 ERA across his first six starts of the season, but the wheels came off the wagon after that, and his last start came in early August. The Pirates are once again going after a veteran arm in the offseason, in the hopes that he can provide some quality innings through the first couple of months of the season, and since it’s a one-year deal, ship him off at the deadline to continue adding young talent to the system. Perez has a spot in the team’s rotation, but fantasy managers should only be looking at him in deeper formats.
RP
Yuki Matsui
FA
SD
(Updated 1/3) Matsui was the youngest pitcher to earn 200 saves in Nippon Professional Baseball, amassing a 2.43 ERA across his career, dating back to 2014! It’s a wide open bullpen in San Diego, and we’ve seen pitchers come from overseas and perform at a high level right away. Matsui has more than enough closing experience, and a strong spring could put the left-hander in a lucrative position for fantasy baseball managers. However, the team also has Robert Suarez in the mix, as well as fellow free agent signing Woo Suk Go. This could end up being a closer by committee.
RP
Tim Hill
SD
CWS
(Updated 12/28) The sidewinder posted a 5.48 ERA last year with a member of the Padres, though his strikeout rate has dipped since the 2021 season. He’s posted a sub-13 percent strikeout rate each of the past two seasons, and last year, he allowed a ton of hard contact and an 86.4 percent contact rate overall. He lives and dies by his fastballs (four-seamer and sinker), relying on his funky delivery to cause confusion more so than elite velocity or movement. He doesn’t have closer stuff, and the White Sox have multiple options better than him. From a middle relief standpoint, he doesn’t do enough in terms of strikeouts or improving ratios to help your fantasy team.
RP
Woo Suk Go
FA
SD
(Updated 1/3) San Diego continues to add to its pen, and Go will be competing for ninth inning work along with Robert Suarez and Yuki Matsui. Go, 25, has compiled a 3.18 ERA, 139 saves, and 401 strikeouts across 368.1 IP in the KBO, spanning seven seasons. He boasts a mid-to-upper 90s fastball that he can locate in all parts of the zone, with enough velocity to beat major league hitters in the upper-third. Spring training should hopefully give us a clearer picture of who could differentiate themselves as “the guy” in the ninth, though this could be a murky situation for fantasy, as the Padres could rotate all three guys in the ninth, giving us the dreaded closer by committee.
RP
Jordan Hicks
TOR
SF
(Updated 1/12) It’s been reported that the Giants are going to extend Hicks out as a starter, which is certainly a choice. In the majors, he’s started eight games since 2018, posting a 5.47 ERA and 1.56 WHIP across those 26.1 IP. In 2023, his overall numbers were solid, despite his 3-9 record. His strikeout rate dipped when he went to Toronto, but for the 2023 season as a whole, he posted a career-best 28.4 percent strikeout rate and 30.9 O-Swing%. It was also the second time in his entire career he posted a double-digit swinging strike rate (10.6%). It’s hard to make it as a two-pitch starter, but he has three reliable options, and last year, his sweeper posted a massive 59.5 percent whiff rate! Hicks’ arsenal lends itself to a ton of ground balls, and when you combine that with his new home park, home runs will not be an issue for Hicks. On a per inning basis, Hicks could be an interesting fantasy asset, but I’m worried about the switch back to a starter after effectively being a full time reliever for the past half-decade. He hasn’t thrown more than 80 innings in a season since 2017 (105 IP in the minors), and since entering the bigs, his highest is 77.2 IP in 2018. It’s not guaranteed that he’ll be a starter, but the plan is to stretch him out as such. Even if all goes well, I can’t imagine they push him much past 100-110 IP in 2024.
RP
Brent Suter
COL
CIN
(Updated 1/15) After spending seven years in Milwaukee, Suter went to Colorado last year, and believe it or not, he survived Coors. He posted a 3.38 ERA (3.18 xERA, 3.44 FIP) with a miniscule 0.39 HR/9, the lowest of his career. Of course the junkballer goes to the game’s best park for hitters and posts the lowest HR/9 of his career! His ground ball rate was slightly above his career mark, but a sizable drop in his HR/FB rate can be attributed to his uncanny ability to limit hard contact last season. He posted an average exit velocity in the 100th percentile, a barrel rate in the 97th percentile, and a hard hit rate in the 99th percentile, per Baseball Savant. He has a four-pitch mix, and will comfortably throw three to both lefties and righties, and his changeup is far and away his best pitch. His lack of strikeouts and ninth inning work will keep him off the fantasy radar for the most part, but in reality this a fine addition for the Cincy pen.
RP
Robert Stephenson
TB
LAA
(Updated 1/21) After a rocky start with Pittsburgh to begin the season, Stephenson ended the year on a high note with the Rays, posting a 2.35 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, and 42.9 percent strikeout rate with the AL East club across 38.1 IP (42 appearances). His cutter and slider wreak havoc on opposing hitters, and lefties have to fear his splitter as well, which posted a .100 BAA and 42.2 percent whiff rate. Stephenson only has three saves in his entire career, but when he’s pitching well, he’s more than capable of closing out ball games for a big league club. Carlos Estevez closed out 31 games for the Angels last year, and only blew four saves, but Stephenson and his $11 million could contend for save chances should Estevez slip up. Stephenson has the better arsenal between the two, both in reality and for fantasy purposes. If you had to ask me, Stephenson will notch more saves than Estevez in 2024.
RP
Matt Moore
MIA
LAA
(Updated 1/24) The Angels continue to overhaul its bullpen and they bring back a familiar face with Moore. Moore began the 2023 season with the club, posting a 2.66 ERA and 28 percent strikeout rate across 44 IP (41 appearances). Moore has been excellent as a reliever over the last two seasons, posting a 2.20 ERA and 1.17 WHIP since becoming a full time reliever in 2022. He’s posted a swinging strike rate of at least 13 percent each of the last two years, and slight adjustments to his pitch mix have also allowed him to get batters to leave the zone quite often (38.4% O-Swing% in 2023). Moore won’t be closing games in 2024 for the Angels, but he should be a valuable asset in leagues that value holds, as he should be entrusted to hold leads, and he can certainly help your team’s ratios.
RP
Wandy Peralta
NYY
SD
(Updated 1/31) Peralta’s changeup and sinker dominant arsenal produces a ton of ground balls, and over the last three seasons, he’s posted a ground ball rate of at least 55 percent in each season. On top of that, his changeup posted a 36.8 percent whiff rate last season, and his slider is another putaway pitch he has in his repertoire. Peralta has never recorded more than five saves in a season, but he’s been a quality reliever the past few seasons, who will go to a more pitcher-friendly park than Yankee Stadium. From a fantasy standpoint, he should get plenty of holds for San Diego, but there’s plenty of competition for saves already with the likes of Robert Suarez, Yuki Matsui, and Woo Suk Go. Peralta is incredibly tough on left-handed hitters, and with multiple player opt outs in his deal, he can essentially bet on himself each year.
RP
Shintaro Fujinami
BAL
NYM
(Updated 2/2) Fujinami really struggled with his command in Oakland, and upon heading to Baltimore, it got a little bit better, albeit still way too high. In 30 appearances with the Orioles, he recorded two wins, two saves, a 4.85 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP. The hard-throwing righty could be a intriguing add for the New York bullpen if they can hardness his command. He has four pitches in his arsenal, each of which can miss bats when needed, but a lack of swings outside of the zone plagued him. If the Mets can eat into his 12.6 percent walk rate from last season, he could be valuable piece as a middle reliever, but from a fantasy standpoint, his value is nonexistent. Low-risk signing here for the Mets.
RP
Phil Maton
HOU
TB
(Updated 2/3) Maton is getting better with age and his 2023 season was arguably the best of his professional career. While posting a 4-3 record across 66 IP, he logged a 3.00 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 27 percent strikeout rate. He has a lively fastball, but over the past few seasons, he’s been trading usage on that for his curveball and new-ish sweeper. His curveball is easily his best pitch, and last season, it resulted in a .169 BAA and 36.4 percent whiff rate! He had a rough end to the season, but he’s a quality reliever that will help bridge the gap to Pete Fairbanks. He won’t be overly useful in fantasy, as he doesn’t project to see many save opportunities in 2024, but this is a quality addition in reality for the Rays.
RP
Ryan Brasier
LA
LA
(Updated 2/5) Brasier had a rough start to the year in 2023 with the Red Sox, but once he went to the Dodgers, he was as dominant as they come. In 38.2 IP with the Dodgers in the regular season last year, Brasier went 2-0 with 10 holds, one save, a 0.70 ERA and 38:10 K/BB ratio. Opponents struggled to barrel him up last season, and once he got to L.A., he incorporated a cutter into his pitch mix, resulting in a .152 BAA. His slider generates plenty of whiffs, and his sinker generated a 63.6 percent ground ball rate last season. With the Dodgers trading Caleb Ferguson to the Yankees, Brasier figures to operate in the seventh inning role ahead of Brusdar Graterol and Evan Phillips in 2024. He may see a spare save chance here and there, but not enough to be useful in those regards for fantasy purposes.
RP
Jakob Junis
SF
MIL
(Updated 2/6) After Milwaukee traded away Corbin Burnes, it was likely they were going to make some sort of move to add another arm to its rotation. In 2023, Junis was primarily a reliever for the Giants, only making four starts, but back in 2022, he worked primarily as a starter. Last year, again, primarily as a reliever, he upped the usage on his slider to new levels, and it resulted in a .216 BAA and 32.5 percent whiff rate. His 26.2 percent strikeout rate, 31.2 percent chase rate, and 27.2 percent whiff rates were all career bests, and expect the usage on that pitch to remain elevated as a starter in 2024. The veteran righty has always had solid command, but he can’t live off just his slider as a starter, and despite some decent ERA numbers over the past two seasons, his sinker has been pummeled. One of Junis’ non-slider offerings will need to step up for him to have sustained success as a starter, but at the very least, he does have one solid pitch in his back pocket he can rely on. He’s a fine target in the later rounds to give your team some innings, but an ERA in the mid-to-low 4s with an ERA that likely drops below one strikeout per inning seems to be on the horizon for Junis in 2024.
RP
Lou Trivino
NYY
NYY
(Updated 2/15) Trivino wasn’t the headliner of the 2022 trade that sent he and Frankie Montas to the Yankees, but he pitched like it in 2022. After being acquired by the Bronx Bombers, Trivino went on to post a 1.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 21.2 IP for the Yankees, but missed all of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Back in 2022, Trivino’s slider registered a .109 BAA and 46.9 percent whiff rate, while his changeup notched a 32.6 percent whiff rate. His arsenal runs six pitches deep, and a solid ground ball rate helps him avoid major damage. Trivino isn’t a player who will be needed for fantasy production, but a healthy Trivino is a great addition to the Yankee bullpen.
RP
Scott Alexander
SF
OAK
(Updated 2/15) Alexander is a proven arm that will set up in the latter innings of the Oakland pen in a middle relief or setup role. Last year for the Giants, he went 7-3 with a 4.66 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, six holds, and one save. He did a solid job avoiding hard contact (83rd percentile) and the barrel of the opposition (94th percentile), though a fourth percentile strikeout rate and seventh percentile whiff rate will suppress any fantasy appeal from him. His sinker-led arsenal generates a ton of ground balls, and despite his two non-fastball offerings each posting a whiff rate of at least 34 percent last year, his strikeout rate was in the low teens! Alexander is a better arm in reality than in fantasy, so while it was a good move by Oakland, it won’t provide much production for fantasy managers in 2024.