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Eternal Fire (World rank: #20) vs. ex-Finest (World rank: #55) - 7:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Eternal Fire (-160) | ex-Finest (+120)

Map Handicap: Eternal Fire -1.5 (+165) | ex-Finest +1.5 (-225)

This is an online best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of Elisa Invitational Fall 2022.

Eternal Fire - Rating at event: N/A

Eternal Fire - Rating past three months: XANTARES 1.25 | woxic 1.15 | imoRR 1.04 | paz 0.95 | xfl0ud 0.92

ex-Finest - Rating at event: hades 1.19 | Snax 1.13 | shokz 1.04 | twist 1.03 | PlesseN 1.01

ex-Finest - Rating past three months: Snax 1.17 | hades 1.12 | PlesseN 1.07 | twist 1.05 | shokz 0.95

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other. The teams faced in May at Pinnacle Cup IV, but both lineups have made changes since. Finest won that match-up 2-1 (9-16 Overpass / 16-6 Vertigo / 16-14 Dust2) and XANTARES led the server with 65 kills and a 1.32 Rating. 

Prediction: ex-Finest wins 2-1.

Ex-Finest have won all four of their series played with Snax in the lineup and they have an 8-2 W/L record across 10 maps played. Snax has played well for ex-Finest with a 1.22 K/D ratio and 1.18 Rating, and his Polish teammate, hades, has stepped up his level of play with a 1.40 K/D ratio and 1.24 Rating alongside Snax. Ex-Finest have taken down Sprout twice, and they also swept ECLOT & Aurora, so they have proven that they can hang with this level of competition. As for Eternal Fire, they have now lost four series in a row, and they have only an 8-9 W/L record across 17 maps played since bring back xfl0ud. Sure, Eternal Fire’s losses to ENCE and Astralis are fine, but we just saw them lose to Websterz and IKLA, so Eternal Fire have shown that they can get outplayed by tier two opponents. This is the first match that Eternal Fire are playing at this event as they had a playoff invite, and we often see the teams with playoff invites perform poorly at these types of tournaments. Either way, ex-Finest have shown me that they can at least compete with a talented team such as Eternal Fire, and I’d even argue that ex-Finest should be favored here based on the recent form of these teams. Ex-Finest are the cheaper team to stack on Draftkings so they are my preferred option, but XANTARES has averaged 0.80 kills per round in the past three months and he is always an option to consider for DFS. 

  • twist leads ex-Finest with 0.13 opening kills per round, while PlesseN leads with 25.1% opening duel attempts across 10 maps played.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

Snax ($8,400) | hades ($7,200) | XANTARES ($9,000) | twist ($6,000) | PlesseN ($6,600) | woxic ($8,200) | shokz ($5,000) 

 

GamerLegion (World rank: #26) vs. MASONIC (World rank: #59) - 10:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: GamerLegion (-195) | MASONIC (+145)

Map Handicap: GamerLegion -1.5 (+145) | MASONIC +1.5 (-200)

This is an online best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of Elisa Invitational Fall 2022.

GamerLegion - Rating at event: N/A

GamerLegion - Rating past three months: acoR 1.26 | iM 1.08 | Keoz 1.02 | siuhy 0.96 | isak 0.94

MASONIC - Rating at event: Buzz 1.11 | J3nsyy 1.09 | Tauson 1.05 | Anlelele 0.97 | notaN 0.96

MASONIC - Rating past three months: Buzz 1.14 | J3nsyy 1.14 | Tauson 1.01 | Anlelele 1.01 | notaN 0.98

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other. 

Prediction: GamerLegion wins 2-1.

Earlier this month, GamerLegion earned a spot at the IEM Rio Major 2022 Challengers Stage, taking down teams such as Apeks, Aurora, G2, and B8. GamerLegion also played a quadruple overtime map on Mirage against FaZe, and they played a double overtime map on Ancient against Spirit, so they have been battle-tested at this point. GL have a 10-8 W/L record across 18 maps played against many respected opponents. GamerLegion received a playoff invite to this event, but I think they are the best team in the bracket and I don’t think they will fizzle out. MASONIC have certainly been solid with a 35-26 W/L record across 61 maps played, though this should be a tough match-up for them. MASONIC’s most played map is inferno, but we just saw GamerLegion take down G2 on that map earlier this month. MASONIC are undefeated on Vertigo with a 10-0 W/L record and I’d favor them on that map if it is played, but the rest of the map pool looks to be in the favor of GamerLegion. I think GamerLegion are the clear better roster, and they should be able to handle business outside of Vertigo. This is looking like a 2-1 victory unless Vertigo is not played, in which case GamerLegion should sweep.

  • Keoz leads GamerLegion with 0.15 opening kills per round and 27.3% opening duel attempts across 18 maps played.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

iM ($8,600) | acoR ($9,200) | Keoz ($7,400) | siuhy ($6,400) | J3nsyy ($7,800) |  Buzz ($6,800) 

 

Movistar Riders (World rank: #23) vs. SAW (World rank: #48) - 1:00 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Movistar Riders (-115) | SAW (-115)

Map Handicap: Movistar Riders -1.5 (+225) | SAW +1.5 (-325)

This is an online best-of-three series for the quarter-finals of Elisa Invitational Fall 2022.

Movistar Riders - Rating at event: N/A

Movistar Riders - Rating past three months: alex 1.07 | sausol 1.05 | Martinez 1.02 | dav1g 0.86 | mopoz 0.78

SAW - Rating at event: MUTiRiS 1.20 | rmn 1.18 | story 1.13 | ewjerkz 1.12 | JUST 1.06

SAW - Rating past three months: ewjerkz 1.10 | MUTiRiS 1.07 | rmn 1.05 | story 1.04 | JUST 1.01

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced in June but both lineups have changed since. Movistar Riders swept 2-0 (16-9 Ancient / 16-8 Overpass), but DeathZz and SunPayus were top two in both kills and Rating, and neither of them are still with the team.

Prediction: SAW wins 2-0.

This is the first time that we will see this Movistar Riders lineup in action as they just announced that they were benching DeathZz and adding sausol a few days ago. Movistar Riders have been struggling with a 3-17 W/L record across 20 maps played, so it makes sense that they decided to make a change. Sausol should be a strong addition to the Spanish lineup, but DeathZz had been with the team for 14 months and it will take Movistar Riders time to adjust. I just don’t see them having immediate success with a new lineup when their old lineup was already doing so poorly, especially against a solid opponent such as SAW. SAW have a 32-20 W/L record across 52 maps played, and they have won five of their last six series played. SAW have a winning record on every map in the pool besides Vertigo, so Movistar Riders may look to punish with that map. However, SAW have taken down FTW, GamerLegion, ECSTATIC, ECLOT and AGO on Vertigo, and I think they are better on that map than their record reflects. Maybe Movistar Riders can take a map like Vertigo, but ultimately I expect SAW to dominate here and likely sweep. This seems like one of those classic Elisa Invitational trap spots where a team gets a playoff invite and instantly gets knocked out. Movistar Riders are currently one of the weaker teams to receive a playoff invite, and I think they will lose here in the quarter-finals. My favorite stack on Draftkings is SAW, but the kill share can get spread pretty evenly around this team so I prefer to target them for value rather than finding a high-upside captain.

  • rmn & ewjerkz lead SAW with 0.12 opening kills per round, while ewjerkz leads with 25.4% opening duel attempts across 52 maps played.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

story ($5,800) | MUTiRiS ($6,800) | ewjerkz ($8,000) | rmn ($6,200) | Martinez ($6,600) | JUST ($4,600) | sausol ($7,600) 

 

*Top Stacks: SAW, GamerLegion, ex-Finest

*Favorite Captains: iM, Snax, acoR, ewjerkz, hades, XANTARES

*Favorite Value: story, MUTiRiS, Keoz, twist, rmn, siuhy, PlesseN, woxic, J3nsyy, Martinez, JUST, shokz, Buzz, sausol